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Guest Post: Why The U.S. Economy Could Go Haywire
Submitted by Dan Dorfman courtesy of TrimTabs Money Blog
Why The U.S. Economy Could Go Haywire
Americans participating in a recent Gallup poll showed the highest level of confidence in an economic recovery in a year. Sounds great, but you can’t ignore the nearly 13 million unemployed, the 46 million people on food stamps and the roughly 29% of the country’s homeowners whose mortgages are under water. They would find it hard to subscribe to the poll’s sunny conclusion. On the other hand, there’s no getting away from a bevy of seemingly increasingly favorable economic data, which, more recently, includes falling weekly jobless claims, four consecutive monthly gains in the leading economic indicators, somewhat perkier retail sales and a pickup in housing starts and business permits. Pounding home this cheerful view is the media’s growing drumbeat of increased economic vigor.
Confused? How can you not be? But President Obama has to be elated at this widely perceived peppier economy. During much of his presidency, he’s been roasted by some critics as an economic illiterate, with one Internet poster recently reading: “Obama had a dream and we got a nightmare.” Now, though, thanks to the public’s growing acceptance of the idea that things are getting better, Obama’s approval ratings are on the rise. Even a number of his Wall Street critics are starting to acknowledge his chances of winning a second term have greatly improved and some believe he’s almost a shoo-in should the current economy continue to pick up steam.
The favorable economic news has also been a big plus for the stock market, what with equities off to a rousing start in 2012 and the Dow recently ballooning to a four-year-high of around the 13,000 level.
That also sounds great, but there’s still a lingering amount of economic scare talk around that’s probably a lot scarier than most haunted houses, namely the chatter and economic commentaries that raise such ominous prospects as a new U.S. recession, a global depression and unemployment in the West (Europe and the U.S.) reaching 20% or more and further toppling of European governments.
It all raises the obvious question: are we out of the woods yet?
No, says James Dale Davidson, an editor of Strategic investment, a Florida newsletter, who writes in the latest issue that “the U.S. economy is staggering, like an over-the-hill boxer trying to shake off a jab to the chin.”
Of concern to Davidson, among other things, are an unfavorable demographic trend (an aging population) and a global debt crisis, both of which he views as essentially insoluble, a contraction here of real personal income, a developing recession in Europe, which will mean a downturn in the U.S., and the prospective toppling of more European governments on top of the seven that have already toppled, a grave situation magnified by the shaky financial condition of European banks.
All told, there are about $87 trillion of assets in the world banking system, around $40 trillion of which are estimated to be in European banks. On average, Davidson points out, European banks are woefully insolvent and leveraged at 26 to 1, meaning, he said, a 4% loss would wipe out their capital. Conservatively, he points out, these banks are about $300 billion short of the capital needed just to make adequate provision for the sovereign debt they hold.
To our economic bear, the handwriting is on the wall, contending “there is no longer a question of whether Europe will fall into a downturn. It already has.”
Davidson further notes that slow growth (which is the case now) has always been an indication that the economy was sinking into a recession, was already in a recession, or was just emerging from a downturn. In this context, he believes the most likely scenario is that we will soon find ourselves in a recession since there is very little in recent data to encourage optimism about robust growth.
This year’s economic and financial news, as Davidson sees it, will detail the painful and gradual awakening of investors to the grim reality. Among what he sees as headline developments:
–Savings rates will rise again following a plunge in home equity values that the Financial Times estimates at $650 billion.
–P/E ratios will continue to be compressed as the prospects of real growth evaporates.
–We will move from “a rising tide lifts all boats” buy-and-hold market to a stock picker’s market.
–With median incomes falling and little prospects of real sustained growth, it will be a rare company that realizes significant gains in top line revenue. In essence, you’ll have to find the next Apple to capitalize on dynamic growth.
Davidson also serves up equally grim tidings for our nation’s retirees. “The welfare state is broke, busted, and the expectation of retirement for the majority of people will be exposed as, at best, an even more illusive dream, and, at worst, a hoax.”
With speculation rife that it’s only a matter of time before Greece defaults despite a recent bailout package, as well as the prospects of other countries also defaulting, it’s worth taking note of a frightening observation from Citibank’s chief economist, Willem Buiter.
Focusing on the threat of disorderly defaults–which we’ve already seen in such riot-torn nations as Greece and Italy–Buiter contends such disorderly defaults “would drag down not just the European banking system, but also the North Atlantic financial system and the internationally exposed parts of the rest of the global banking system that would likely last for years, with GDP falling by more than 10% and unemployment in the West reaching 20% or more. Emerging markets,” he observed, “would be dragged down, too.”
So there you have it, a slew of scary events, any of which could clobber the economy and the financial markets at any given moment. How real such risks are is anybody’s guess, but the message from our worrywarts is clear: there’s still plenty of economic danger ahead.
One of the more famous Yogi-isms might sum it up best: “It ain’t over till it’s over!”
What do you think? E-mail me at Dandordan@aol.com
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You do a diservice to the name Galt by using the phrase "little guy" in conjunction with it. It is also a extreme contradiction and in this context a floating abstraction. There is no such thing as a little guy. If you feel powerless in this world speak for yourself and reserve the term little guy for babies and midgets.
Hey! I'm one of those 13 million unemployed! But I'm not one of the 46 million receiving food stamps.
Just thought I'd chime in here. Nothing else to add but to say "Recovery Spring: Hope is Eternal" premieres this week. Straight-to-DVD, never made a theatrical release.
Damn shame, too. The cinematography and the dialogue are both immaculate. Spectacular, really.
Hey Tsar...havent seen you on lately or else missed your posts. Hope you are doing ok ! :)
Since '08 I have been wondering if the fed could manage to blow another macro bubble, one part of me said no way another admitted it was remotely possible. I guess we are seeing signs of monetary helium's effects on the macro variables. Zero percent interest rates as far as the eye can see may be able to keep the balloon afloat for a few years, but really 0% interest for so long is unprecedented.
The money multiplier is below one and the debt to GDP ratio is above 100% , meaning they can't reduce it below "former" stable ratios it will only grow larger, and exponentially so. The only thing they can change are the standards/metrics used to define "stability".
The middle class is slowing being eliminated, how long it will take is anyones guess but it will be eliminated.
"stability"
As I told my broker- "a corpse is stable"!
I thought he was going to have a heart attack (do brokers have hearts?).
Bottom line is NOBODY CARES. The millions of people on some form of public assistance--the saps waiting for the IRS refund check so they can go out and buy more iCrap, the adult losers living in their parents basements waiting to find a "real" job, the welfare leeches, etc etc--NONE OF THEM CARE. Why should they when they have health insurance from their parents UNTIL THEY'RE 26!--why should they when our President says its ok to strive for mediocrity, and taxpayers will support them with healthcare, tells them they're entitled to a 4,000 square foot home and fuck it if you can't pay the mortgage, you're rich neighbor up the block is to evil to keep his money so DC will tax it away in the name of "fairness" etc etc etc.
The welfare statists' utopian dreams(our nightmare) are almost complete--cradle to grave government oversight and paternalism. Obamacare is one of the final pieces to that foundation.
But no, most of America needs to watch the next episode of Jersey Shore, picking the toasted cheese from their Hot Pockets with their greasy fat fingers, while being put on hold by the local SS office because their monthly check didn't hit their checking account fast enough.
I'd say wake up and do something, but its too fukcing late.
It is never too late. People can change at any time. I am sure in your life you have changes that were not easy to make. Others can do the same. One sure way to make it more difficult is with an attitude of it "can't"
uhm, they will care.
parasites and leeches need a host to feed off
this host is dry and injecting fiat liquidity isn't increasing the yield for the host to be able to feed all, all the time.
yield will matter again, shortly
for the rest - hyper inflation
Message: Everyone's a shit bag, but you.
You are part of the GOP flock. Congratulations. The line for spring shearing is over there.
"fukcing" It's FUCKING "FUCKING!"
"go out and buy more iCrap"
Read that back to yourself. Care to defend the corporatists?
If I'm not mistaken it's corporations that have the greatest wealth. MONEY = POWER. THEY don't want YOU to THINK that it's THEM, no, they want you to think that it's the GOVERNMENT, the very thing that gave them the power over the lot of us (to enjoy EVERY right that people are supposed to have while also being able to use their wealth to manipulate the government "of the people, by the people, and for the people").
When people get it all wrong it shouldn't be a surprise that it turns out wrong...
Why The U.S. Economy Could Go Haywire...
Is this a real question or a fairy tale?
Exactly
Dan is probably hankering for a job as a CNBC air-head news presenter
What we need is NEGATIVE HAYWIRE!
Short answer: The Golden Rule.
He who has the gold, rules.
"What do you think?"
Think I've heard this all before
"..scary events, any of which could clobber the economy and the financial markets at any given moment. How real such risks are is anybody’s guess.."
If you want to add value to recycling the (old) news you need to either make some incisive observational remark (new research) or make a predictive statement (skill).
School Report: no original thought process, therefore no added value. Dan is a dull boy (well you did ask)
Like the "Pelosi Prattle"?
Pelosi is scary
As long as we pretend that the HUGE non-participating population isn't a problem, we are in for a rough ride.
http://confoundedinterest.wordpress.com/2012/02/23/initial-jobless-claims-flat-non-employment-ratio-still-at-41-5/
I know what we should do: import another 50 million terd-worlders and give them all giant houses and zillion$ in government benefits. It worked really well last time. FREE TRADE, BABY, YEAH!
rustymason - you think you are being sarcastic, but that IS EXACTLY WHAT IS GOING TO BE DONE.
housing problem solved. inflation because of competition for goods. game on.
1 billion in china and 1 billion in india - it's a drop of their bucket to send bodies here.
"Yes we can!"
...mmm...sounds familiar.
When you lie and make up good numbers/stats its easy to paint a rosy picture.
RoboTraders mom joined the corps?
Bluntly Put:
You wrote that the money multiplier is below one.
If that is the case, then an increase in the money supply will not oncrease GDP.
GDP is simply money supply times money velocity.
Where do you get your information that money velocity is below one?
According to an article entitled "The GDP Deception," money velocity is at 1.6.
Don Levit
That is what I implied, if the money multpier is below one then a dollar increase in deficit spending and total debt does not yield a corresponding increase of a dollar in GDP. Therefore the debt to GDP ratio can only increase. It appears to me to be hovering slightly above 0.8
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/MULT
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/MZMV?cid=32242
1.448 per the latest reading.
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/MZM?cid=30
MZM stock.
Agreed with Don, the dude is full of shit on this particular point. We'll eventually cross that rubicon, but we still have a good bit of distance to go. Even if you assume an aggressive 1% decay in velocity per quarter (based on the average decay since 7/1/10 when monetary policy went into overdrive), we're looking at another 36 quarters before we "hit the shit".
Other shit-hitting points:
At 0.7% decay (historical average since 1Q 1981): 52 quarters
At 1.5% decay: 24 quarters
At 2% decay: 18 quarters
Note that the steady march of velocity towards below 1.0 is the ultimate long-term case for physical gold. Depending on your view on where the decay goes from here will decide your accumulations schedule. I've been getting increasingly more aggressive in the past 6 quarters.
Coulds, woulds, maybes and mights...clear as mud.
SILVER'S ON FIRE!!!
The Obama administration will pull every string they have to prop up the economy until the election is over.
"... you can’t ignore the nearly 13 million unemployed, the 46 million people on food stamps and the roughly 29% of the country’s homeowners whose mortgages are under water. "
You can if you're in the WH.
Ben there, printed that.
T-shirt stuff!!
IT'S ALREADY HAYWIRE - WAIT FOR THE TRUE PROBLEMS - HYPERINFLATION - DOLLAR COLLAPSE - WAR.....
Snake Paulson said if "we" don't give bankers two years of record high bonuses (aka, TARP, QE1) the economy would be much worse off.
In the "It Takes One to Know One" category, Dan, you're a real dorf, man.
Now, get busy and name names of all the bad guys.
The economy has been showing signs of strength... for 4 fucking years now. Because they keep telling us it is, over and over and over and over... 1000's of times each week the masses are bombarded with this message.
Let me know when it actuall DOES strengthen.
it will strengthen as soon as we see a bigfoot. as long as people keep talking about 'seeing a recovery' it's no more than the yeti. doesn't exist.
OT:
My father just told me that Romney could be considering Rand Paul as a VP candidate. Is there any validity to this? If that's true, is it likely that Ron Paul has been taking it easy on Romney, even defending him at times, to help further his son's career? On the obverse side of the original question, could it mean that Rand as VP is a ploy by Mittens to appear conservative and gain a couple more votes?
Bwa ha ha!
If Rand Paul's chosen as Mitt's veep, it's GOT TO BE to make Mitt look smarter.
I'D LIKE TO SEE CHRIS CHRISTY / RAND PAUL - NOW THAT'S A WINNING TICKET!
Wit all the inexplicable monetary crapola going on, I find myself rooting for the Mayan end of the world scenario on December 21, 2012.
At least I won't have to see Cramer on CNBC every morning, though I'm not exactly sure that's worth dying for.
Still, STOP THE MADNESS. END THE WORLD. STAY MAYAN, MY FRIENDS.
Totally off the subject here.
What is up with silver today? can someone please explain........ thanks.
Currency, Frames of Reference, & Belonging
so goes the body, so goes the head, so goes the spirit...
Currency is governance, belonging to frames of reference, in a dimension of dimensions. We pay people to the extent they wind the empire’s clock, to repeat its History. If you look at the data, spreading the work out requires roughly 20 hrs/wk/person or 3 hours every day. Of course those choosing to do nothing else willingly give up their privacy, and seek to command the same of others, to the end of equal outcomes, make-work.
Who sits in a corner office planning bridges and cities to nowhere, 18 hrs/day, expecting real people to follow the direction of economic activity multiplier effects, and why would anyone compete for the opportunity to be so stupid? Ask China. Empires are built by mental eunuchs. What China learned, before the dawn of European colonialism, was that attacking others destroys self, because it invites attack from within. The empire rots from the inside (beltway) out accordingly.
The robot professor measures brain activity and learns that the body moves before the brain engages, up the old evolutionary chain, to the brain, which rationalizes self actuation into a belief of free will, to which it seeks positive feedback from the mirrors surrounding it, in a lie that rationalizes lying. Just reward clock social behavior with credit-controlled spending through the global HR system and you have the black hole of collapsing event horizons you see before you.
Of course corporate could create 2M jobs between now and Christmas, but what would it get other than more solar panels from China and more energy contracts to Obama’s cohort? Trading debt, investment in the slavery of others, obfuscates the non-performing asset base, right up until it deleverages, when the participation “credit” relativity circuit blows up, and intelligence has emigrated, leaving nothing but replication of the master/slave relationship inherent to a clock.
On one end is real income with no real assets. On the other is assets with no real income. At system reset, angle of incidence change, where do you want to be? What the occupiers are learning is that democracy, majority representative rule, is a soft bully centrifuge, which relies upon the desire to belong, to match the pattern, for power, on a path of diminishing returns, just like the tea party movement. It’s still feudalism.
The key to an empire is swapping self-worth for non-recurrent material wealth, a piece at a time until the participants are all choosing the Pavlov swap currency, at less and less corporate cost, in the form of increasingly diverse shoddy work products, until all that remains is the hopium. Intelligent parenting is not quite so simple because the empire, of peer pressure, must increasingly focus on leakage to grow the ponzi, in the form of early childhood education, Family Law.
Replicating parents train children to depend upon the replication as an authoritarian measure of self-worth, raising slaves for the empire from which they get their own sense of self-worth, in the form of more and increasingly shoddy, least-common-denominator replacements, like Microsoft. Accordingly, they are all terrified of being alone, with no mirrors, and will accept any empire frame of reference assigned, as the Order of Things, bullies bullying bullies.
Intelligent parents embed a sense of self-worth in their children accordingly, despite the escalating cost of empire to do so. The physical senses are like an addiction, because they may only record the past, in a self-preserving feedback loop creating the event horizon. They will not accept any input over time without an event horizon pattern match.
Children with self-worth employ imagination in a positive feedback loop, which acts as the empire’s negative feedback loop. The intelligent kid doesn’t match cards by sight, but rather by seeking the unknown, allowing the gravity of empire replication to do most of the work, with its misdirection of gamesmanship.
It is not unusual for cops to have 5 or even 10 businesses running off of Criminal Justice, which process kids at the churn pool. That’s what its union exists to do. It’s a sponge. The kids in Seattle are learning that now. Don’t voluntarily stand in front of a loaded gun expecting something good to happen. Government has crowded out organic income production from the bottom up, and so craves the last 1%, leaving the sharks to eat each other in a feeding frenzy. Never again is an empire oxymoron.
Expect the empire to isolate you into fear and depression as the penalty for non-conformance, by rewarding increasingly arbitrary, capricious, and malicious conformance / belonging, where the participants act happy on a stage built for the purpose, seeking ever greater prizes to assuage their anxiety. That is the value of Facebook.
Train others to train your children accordingly. A real union does not balance concentrated power with concentrated power; it distributes power when and where it is needed. The solution to the professor’s problem is, of course, to make Friday Monday, and Monday the beginning of another job. If you do not exercise discretion, like anything else, you lose it.
Wall Street trades debt slavery for the eminent domain to exploit the planet. It has its place in a civil society, but it is at the foot of the table. It only appears to be at the head to the willfully mesmerized diplomats, talking their way to fame and glory. The casino bets on entertainment. War is good for business.
Now, we all are waiting for them to light up their system. Should be quite the fireworks. Over the long term, you do not play to win; your rights are inalienable. Others play to lose, in a false lottery built for the occasion.
Glad I read this to confirm my own thoughts as the "massive recovery media blitz" is really starting to fuck with me after a few years. I'm still poor but things are getting much better. Um yeah, ok. Bullshit. This recovery is digital zeros and physcological warfare. Pretty sure that's not sustainable.
Whatever the Euro/USD does the market does. There is magic in the chart. Doesn't have anything to do with all these huff and puff words to no end. The algos have FX at the top. How hard is that to understand?
A couple of points I seem to agree with Mr Hendry: First we will have a deflationary event and Secornd: Sensible prepration will require less gold and more liquid assets (cash).
And if the 'cash' is incrementally decreasing in value?
Politics is the art of compromise.
But Ron Paul running as VP to Romney is a compromise that I cannot subscribe to.
The VP position has no teeth. They are there in case the POTUS falls.
And I sure as hell cannot see RP as VP to Sanitorium.(freak show)
And I'm not so sure about things not turning 'Mad Max' although it would be horrible.
We have pre-armed, pre-organized (and even some are pre-trained by the U.S. military) sociopaths in the form of gangs. And these gangs have tremendous support from the drug cartels. THIS is what give me great unease.
If anyone is looking forward to the great 're-set' of our system, consider that.
Another apropos Yogi-ism is, “This is deja vu all over again.” This refers to the devastating Credit Crisis of 1907 and the Great Depression of 1929. These historical events are relevant today because of Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act (1999) and the Commodity Futures Modernization Act of 2000, which scrapped legal restrictions, allowing these 1907 and 1929 economic catastrophes to repeat, AT THE SAME TIME!!!.
The Fed’s effort to date is to cover up our current economic problems by electronically printing money and providing debt guarantees. Instead, we need structural reform, starting with unwinding the $707 trillion OTC derivatives market and debt forgiveness.
My economic model predicts the US will slip back into recession in April/May 2012.
Unless I'm missing something, the article fails to address the very real issue of hyperinflation.
I've noticed that local grocery stores are getting bare and restocking takes longer.
But hypeinflation would have to be supported in part by wage increases.
The U.S. would have to do things like raise (at the least) the minimum wage caps to support the rapid rise of prices or the 'hyper' part would only last a short time IMO.
then it's too late
maybe "hyper" is not yet the right term to describe what's going on but when the money today doesn't buy you the same amout of groceries tomorrow, let alone the next day.. something is not right.
the stores can't afford to carry produce and fresh foods the way they used to. everything with a limited shelf life is replaced only to fill the demand.
what that will mean is that only the early shoppers will get fresh meat, fresh produce, fresh bread.
prices on fresh and real food will skyrocket this year
that's how it starts.
EDIT: 2011 was the lowest head count for cattle in North America. The herds aren't replacing quick enough to fill demand. Imports are getting more expensive with our diluted dollar and China is buying up entire herds. Same for hog. Fresh chicken meats are insanely expensive already. It will only get worse. But hey, all synthetic food containing lots of propylene glycol and other plastics will be in ample supply. Soviets didn't starve either, they lived on cardboard.
I've noticed in the Atlanta area that grocery stores are not restocking like they once did. I especially notice this in the bread aisle. Certain Pepperidge Farm breads are no longer carried and when another selection is out of stock they seem to just slide the loaves around to make the shelves look full. Also the stores seem to be narrowing choices down in beef items. No longer are there three or four different types of roasts and steaks - now it's pot roast or prime rib with nothing in between. Many stores are also "remodeling" their produce department when in reality they are reducing the number of items available and just don't want you to realize it. One of our stores puts a few strategically placed avacados in an artsy rendition of a bushel basket when the plain truth is that's all they have in stock. I've spoken with many others who have noticed the same thing. It's coming soon to a neighborhood near you. The stores are like the government - they think we are too stupid to figure out what's going on.
Thanks for sharing your impressions from GA. I'm on the WA/OR border and the story is the same across the Northwest.
O/T a bit but i came across this yesterday at Bloomberg. The headline is deceptive it's actually about government SBA assistance to those from other countries and the scams they are perpetrating on the taxpayer. Disgusting stuff:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-02-21/wealthy-enriched-by-double-dipp...
http://www.tampabay.com/news/publicsafety/thieves-attempt-to-siphon-hund...
Enjoy!
When people park over the gas station's own caps.... he he he.
I told you there will be trouble with these prices.
destabilize and nuetralize, and if you can't buy it destroy it. the empire never ended.
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"All told, there are about $87 trillion of assets in the world banking system, around $40 trillion of which are estimated to be in European banks. "
Pardon my stupidity, but are the "assets" not fiat debt, not hard cash in the sense of gold? Does it make sense to pretend the banks have actual assets in articles here? If so, please explain why...
"All told, there are about $87 trillion of assets in the world banking system, around $40 trillion of which are estimated to be in European banks. "
Pardon my stupidity, but are the "assets" not fiat debt, not hard cash in the sense of gold? Does it make sense to pretend the banks have actual assets in articles here? If so, please explain why...