This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.
Guest Post: You Ain't Seen Nothing Yet - Part 3
From Jim Quinn of The Burning Platform
You Ain't Seen Nothing Yet - Part 3
This is Part Three of a three part series trying to make sense of the Crisis period we entered in 2008. Click here to read: PART ONE or PART TWO
Seeking Regeneracy
“Soon after the catalyst, a national election will produce a sweeping political realignment, as one faction or coalition capitalizes on a new public demand for decisive action. Republicans, Democrats, or perhaps a new party will decisively win the long partisan tug of war. This new regime will enthrone itself for the duration of the Crisis. Regardless of its ideology, that new leadership will assert public authority and demand private sacrifice. Regardless of its ideology, that new leadership will assert public authority and demand private sacrifice. Where leaders had once been inclined to alleviate societal pressures, they will now aggravate them to command the nation’s attention. The regeneracy will be solidly under way.” – Strauss & Howe – The Fourth Turning
The 2008 election happened in the midst of the catalyst events. A sweeping political realignment did not occur. In fact, the 2010 mid-term elections produced a result which has essentially gridlocked the political process in Washington D.C. The reunification and reenergizing of society has yet to occur. Neil Howe in his recent article pondered the question of regeneracy:
“We may like to imagine that there is a definable day and hour when America, faced by growing danger and adversity, explicitly decides to patch over its differences, band together, and build something new. But maybe what really happens is that everyone feels so numb that they let somebody in charge just go ahead and do whatever he’s got to do. I’m thinking of how America felt during the bleak years of FDR’s first term, or during Lincoln’s assumption of vast war powers after his repeated initial defeats on the battlefield.
The regeneracy cannot always be identified with a single news event. But it does have to mark the beginning of a growth in centralized authority and decisive leadership at a time of great peril and urgency. Typically, the catalyst itself doesn’t lead directly to a regeneracy. There has to be a second or third blow, something that seems a lot more perilous than just the election of third-party candidate (Civil War catalyst) or a very bad month in the stock market (Great Power catalyst). We are still due for such a moment. We have not yet reached our regeneracy. When it happens, I strongly suspect it will be in response to an adverse financial event. It may also happen in response to a geopolitical event. It may well happen over the next year or two.” – Neil Howe – Dating the Fourth Turning
Regeneracy occurred within five years of the outset of the three previous Crisis periods in U.S. history. The historic year of 1776 saw the colonies come together and declare independence from Great Britain. Group solidarity and willingness to die for their cause launched an eight year war and ultimately the formation of a new republic. The Civil War regeneracy occurred after the Union debacle at Bull Run in 1861. The Washington aristocrats had treated the battle like a show, where they could bring a picnic lunch and be entertained by an entertaining skirmish between two armies. After the resounding bloody defeat Abraham Lincoln assumed dictatorial like powers over the North and ordered the immediate enlistment of a half a million soldiers. He assumed unprecedented powers of taxation, forced conscription, suspension of due process and showed a willingness to administer maximum destruction to his foes. This would be no picnic in the park, as 700,000 men died in the next three years. The regeneracy during the Great Depression/WWII Crisis occurred in 1933 with the election of Franklin Roosevelt. He immediately declared a bank holiday and confiscated all the gold in the country. In a flurry of executive orders and bills sent to Congress he rammed through his New Deal, assuming new and broader powers for the Federal government and Executive branch.
Based on these examples in American history it is clear we have not entered the regeneracy stage of this Crisis. Also based on history, it is likely to occur by the end of 2013. A second blow to our nation and our psyches is the only thing that could possibly bring together a deeply divided nation. The country was struck by a category 3 hurricane in 2008. We have been in the eye of the hurricane for the last two years and have grown complacent. The eye will pass over us in the next year and we will again be buffeted by hurricane force winds – except the hurricane has strengthened to a category 5 as the “solutions” to the storm will make part two far worse. Those with a libertarian mindset are not likely to be happy with the Federal government and President taking on even greater powers in the coming years. The usurpation of more control over the citizens of this country in the last decade has been one of the major reasons for the ratcheting down of trust in our leaders. The upcoming presidential election will likely create the dynamic that propels the country into its regeneracy. If the next downward blow can be averted before the election, the country will end up with four more years of Obama. If the Crisis suddenly worsens before November, Romney assumes the mantle of Prophet Leader in January 2013.
I agree with Neil Howe that the country’s reaction to an adverse financial event will be the likely regeneracy moment. The explosive mixture of the five D’s will provide the spark for the next phase: Debt; Derivatives; Default; Devaluation; and ultimately Depression. There is no way to deny the $15.6 trillion of debt this country has accumulated, with $10 trillion of it added since 2000. The debt ceiling of $16.4 trillion will be breached in October 2012 at the current rate of extreme spending. This should set up an interesting dynamic just prior to the November elections. A replay of the August 2011 showdown could be disastrous for Obama if the stock market were to crater again.
We are accumulating debt at a rate of $3.7 billion per day, or $154 million per hour. No politician of either party, other than Ron Paul, has any plan to even moderate the spending, let alone make actual cuts. The CBO projections rolled out by these congressional weasels aren’t worth the paper they are printed on. The National Debt is on track to surpass $20 trillion in 2015 and $25 trillion by 2018. And this is before the Medicare and Social Security costs blast into orbit in 2020. Kicking the can down the road works until math catches up with you. It is insane to believe we can dig ourselves out of this debt induced mess with more debt, but empires tend to act insanely in their death throes.
“In individuals, insanity is rare; but in groups, parties, nations and epochs, it is the rule.” – Friedrich Nietzsche
Strauss & Howe made preparation recommendations back in 1997 that would have lessened the impact of this Crisis, but they fell on deaf ears. Their common sense suggestions included:
- Work to elevate moral and cultural standards. Toddlers with Tiaras and The Kardashians were not an elevation.
- Shed and simplify the federal government by cutting back sharply on its size and scope.
- All levels of government should prune legal, regulatory and professional thickets.
- Politicians should define our challenges bluntly and stress duties over rights.
- Require community teamwork to solve local problems without federal government intervention.
- Treat children as the nation’s highest priority.
- Tell future elders they will need to be more self-sufficient, save more, and expect fewer entitlements.
- Shift government pension plans from defined benefit plans to defined contribution plans.
- Begin to trim Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security benefits.
- Raise the national savings rate, reduce consumption and work towards federal budget surpluses.
- Expect the worst, conserve our forces, and be prepared for an epic struggle down the road.
I would reckon we went 0 for 11 on the preparation front. We took the exact opposite course in most cases. Each generation has their own crosses to bear. No one will escape the bitter gale force winds of this Crisis. Strauss and Howe must have had a crystal ball looking fifteen years into the future when they made this supposition:
“The Boomers’ old age will loom, exposing the thinness in private savings and the unsustainability of public promises. The 13ers will reach their make or break peak earning years, realizing at last that they can’t all be lucky exceptions to their stagnating average income. Millenials will come of age facing debts, tax burdens, and two tier wage structures that older generations will now declare intolerable.”
Thus far the older generations have refused to yield. They demand promises made be promises kept. The Boomers did not save enough to sustain themselves during their retirement. Many are entirely reliant upon Social Security and Medicare as their only savings and health insurance. Generation X is caught between aging parents and indebted jobless children. The Millenials are saddled with $1 trillion of student loan debt and few decent job opportunities. In prior Fourth Turnings the Prophet generation led and the Hero generation followed, doing the heavy lifting. This dynamic is yet to be realized during this Crisis. Maybe the regeneracy event will create this dynamic.
That event will likely be triggered by another debt crisis. Rogoff and Reinhart studied 44 countries over 200 years and concluded that once government debt exceeded 90% of GDP economic growth slowed and the likelihood of disaster rose dramatically.
“Those who remain unconvinced that rising debt levels pose a risk to growth should ask themselves why, historically, levels of debt of more than 90% of GDP are relatively rare and those exceeding 120% are extremely rare. Is it because generations of politicians failed to realize that they could have kept spending without risk? Or, more likely, is it because at some point, even advanced economies hit a ceiling where the pressure of rising borrowing costs forces policy makers to increase tax rates and cut government spending, sometimes precipitously, and sometimes in conjunction with inflation and financial repression (which is also a tax)? Historical experience and early examination of new data suggest the need to be cautious about surrendering to “this-time-is-different” syndrome and decreeing that surging government debt isn’t as significant a problem in the present as it was in the past.”
On this date the U.S. debt to GDP ratio is 102%. Our debt accumulation is on automatic pilot and the national GDP is incapable of growing above 3%. Anyone with the most basic math skills (this excludes Wall Street economists, CNBC bimbo anchors, and Bernanke) can determine the ratio will pass 120% in 2015. This doesn’t even include the Fannie, Freddie, and Student Loan debt that are guaranteed by the Federal government, along with trillions of unfunded social program liabilities and state and local debts. In reality the true debt obligations of this country exceed 500% of GDP, as no politician plans to willingly renege on Medicare and Social Security promises made to voters who would boot them if they voted to cut these entitlements.
The linear thinking deniers of reality (Krugman) will use Japan as their example of a country whose debt ratio is above 200%, without disastrous consequences. I guess a 22 year recession is not considered disastrous. Japan has been able to fund themselves internally because their citizens had a 15% savings rate in and they have run gigantic trade surpluses for decades. That game is over and they will hit the wall in the near future. The savings rate in the U.S. is 3.7% and we run $550 billion trade deficits, or 3.7% of GDP. The United States has no advantages other than the U.S. dollar currently being regarded as the worldwide reserve currency. We are hanging our hat on being the best looking horse in the glue factory.
The cracks in the façade are already painfully visible. The U.S. ran a $1.4 trillion deficit in 2009; $1.3 trillion in 2010; and $1.3 trillion in 2011. In the chart below you can see foreigners’ appetite for U.S. debt since 2007 has plunged. Maybe it has something to do with getting a negative real return by investing in U.S. Treasuries paying 2%. Maybe it has something to do with Ben Bernanke attempting to inflate away our debt burden. Maybe it has something to do with Congress and the President accelerating spending and creating massive deficits for as far as the eye can see. Maybe they are losing trust and confidence in the American Empire.
In the last three years we have run $4 trillion in deficits and foreigners have only funded $1.4 trillion of that debt. That means someone else had to buy $2.6 trillion of our long term Treasuries. Some of it was funded by little old ladies and pension funds that are setting themselves up for enormous losses. The vast swath was purchased by Ben Bernanke with his QE for eternity programs. As foreigners rationally reduce their Treasury holdings and we continue to run $1.3 trillion deficits, Bernanke must keep buying the debt. This cycle will continue until we reach our Minsky Moment, then Strauss & Howe’s forecast will be realized:
“This might result in a Great Devaluation, a severe drop in the market price of most financial and real assets. This devaluation could be a short but horrific panic, a free-falling price in a market with no buyers. Or it could be a series of downward ratchets linked to political events that sequentially knock the supports out from under the residual popular trust in the system. As assets devalue, trust will further disintegrate, which will cause assets to devalue further, and so on.” - Strauss & Howe – The Fourth Turning
Who will buy our debt in the coming months and years? Europe is saturated with debt and doesn’t have the means to purchase our debt. Japan is a train wreck waiting to happen. China’s customers aren’t buying their crap, so their economic miracle is about to go in reverse. The Federal Reserve cannot buy $1 trillion of Treasury bonds per year forever without creating more speculative bubbles and raging inflation in the things people need to live. The Minsky Moment will be the point when the U.S. Treasury begins having funding problems due to the spiraling debt incurred in financing perpetual government deficits. At this point no buyer will be found to bid at 2% to 3% yields for U.S. Treasuries; consequently, a major sell-off will ensue leading to a sudden and precipitous collapse in market clearing asset prices and a sharp drop in market liquidity. In layman terms that means – the shit will hit the fan. The Federal Reserve and Treasury will be caught in their own web of lies. The only way to attract buyers will be to dramatically increase interest rates. Doing this in a country up to its eyeballs in debt will be suicide. We will abruptly know how it feels to be Greek.
Linear thinkers like Krugman and most of the mainstream media opinion leaders can’t fathom the possibility of a complete collapse of our economic system. Most of their little models and economic data points don’t even go back to the last Fourth Turning period. They make projections about a housing recovery based on historical data that starts in 1962. Housing sales linger at historical lows with mortgage rates at 4%. The entire housing market would cave in if mortgage rates reached 6%, where they were in 2008. The forty year average mortgage rate has been 9%. Everything about our economic system is abnormal. Even reversion to the mean would be disastrous. The Minsky Moment headed our way will not be a single uncorrelated event. The entire financial world is hopelessly entangled by the $700 trillion of derivatives that ensure mass destruction if one of the dominoes falls. This is the reason an otherwise inconsequential country like Greece had to be “saved”.
Everyone knows Greece, Portugal, Spain and Italy are broke. One or more will eventually default on their debt. It is highly likely that a butterfly will flap its wings in Europe and cause a hurricane in the U.S. The default will spark a worldwide contagion as trust in a system of false promises disintegrates. China’s already crumbling real estate market will implode. As interest rates soar and stock markets plunge, global tensions will intensify. Continued oil supply constraints will be the cherry on top. Based on historical precedent, this is likely to strike before 2014 arrives. The wealth destruction and pain will be so intense a regeneracy will be at hand. Our very survival will feel at stake.
“Eventually, all of America’s lesser problems will combine into one giant problem. The very survival of the society will feel at stake, as leaders lead and people follow. The emergent society may be something better, a nation that sustains its Framers’ visions with a robust new pride. Or it may be something unspeakably worse. The Fourth Turning will be a time of glory or ruin.” - Strauss & Howe – The Fourth Turning
And here is the rub for those who argue for less government intervention in our lives. Which leaders will lead and who will follow? The actual events do not matter as much as how the people react to the events. Fourth Turnings are always chaotic and tumultuous. In the frenzied period during the next leg down, people will demand order. They will call for the government to do something. Obama or Romney will use the fear and uncertainty to assume more power over our lives. Executive orders, new legislation, and another stripping of our liberties will be attempted. How the generational cohorts react to these deeds will determine what happens next. There are 97 million Millenials, 83 million Generation X and 73 million Boomers. The Boomers hold most of the positions of power, but their credibility as leaders has been damaged by their actions over the last two decades.
How the Millenials react to Boomer commands will determine the course of this Fourth Turning. The great devaluation will provide our leaders the opportunity to address the structural imbalances that haunt our nation. They could force Wall Street bankers, shareholders and bondholders assume their losses. They could rewrite the social contract with all generations, balancing the needs of elders with the futures of our youth. They could dramatically scale back the military industrial complex. They could completely scrap the ridiculous tax code and shift from taxing income to taxing consumption. They could revamp our political system and remove money from the political process. They could choose to balance budgets and reduce the size of government. They could ask for proportional sacrifice from everyone in order to keep this ship from sinking. If you believe this will happen, I have nice home near an Iranian nuclear power plant I’d like to sell you.
The regeneracy does not mean the actions taken by our leaders will be wise, well thought out, rational or beneficial to all people. Many believe the actions taken by Abraham Lincoln and Franklin Roosevelt during the previous Fourth Turning Crisis periods were detrimental, foolish, and enhanced the power of the state at the expense of liberty for the people. The leader when the regeneracy events strike is more likely to respond with more government control as the solution. He will invoke executive orders giving government control over important industries and crucial institutions. The government politician leaders will pick the winners and losers, with their cronies and contributors winning again. Dissent will not be acceptable. The NDAA will be invoked to imprison those who disagree with the mandates handed down by those in power. Congress would pass SOPA and lock down the internet and shutdown any websites they consider dangerous to their central authority. Lastly, with the biggest and baddest military machine on earth, the leader will attempt to rally the masses and distract them from our dire economic situation by seeking an external threat to confront. It just so happens that China is also in the midst of their own Fourth Turning. History has shown that armed confrontation is likely around the climax of the Crisis:
“History offers even more sobering warnings: Armed confrontation usually occurs around the climax of Crisis. If there is confrontation, it is likely to lead to war. This could be any kind of war – class war, sectional war, war against global anarchists or terrorists, or superpower war. If there is war, it is likely to culminate in total war, fought until the losing side has been rendered nil – its will broken, territory taken, and leaders captured.” - Strauss & Howe – The Fourth Turning
No one knows the exact events that will mark this Crisis period in our history. But there is no turning back. We’ve entered the Winter season and the beautiful calm days of autumn are long past. Nothing but turmoil, bitterness and sacrifice lie ahead. We entered this Winter of our discontent unprepared like the grasshopper in the fable. This has insured this Crisis will be far worse than it needed to be. The grasshoppers want solutions and easy answers to problems created over decades of ignorance, sloth, greed and stupidity. It’s too late. There are no easy answers and the solutions are all painful and bitter. This is not some theoretical exercise. This is the reality of our situation. I have three teenage sons and their futures depend on the outcome of this Crisis. I will do whatever it takes to support them. I will not allow them to be cannon fodder in some war for oil in the Middle East. If their future requires me to oppose a tyrannical government, so be it. If their future requires me to give up my Social Security and Medicare security blanket, so be it. If I have to die so they may live, so be it. There are no guarantees in this life. We get about 80 years on this planet to make a difference. The choices we make in the next few years will matter. Are you ready? I am.
“The seasons of time offer no guarantees. For modern societies, no less than for all forms of life, transformative change is discontinuous. For what seems an eternity, history goes nowhere – and then it suddenly flings us forward across some vast chaos that defies any mortal effort to plan our way there. The Fourth Turning will try our souls – and the saecular rhythm tells us much will depend on how we face up to that trial. The saeculum does not reveal whether the story will have a happy ending, but it does tell us how and when our choices will make a difference.” - Strauss & Howe – The Fourth Turning
»
- 30864 reads
- Printer-friendly version
- Send to friend
- advertisements -
And that will last "forever?"
“We can ignore reality but we cannot ignore the consequences of ignoring reality." -- Ayn Rand
Dick Cheney said "deficits don't matter". There is no problem here, because he would never lie. With a new heart, he should be Romney's VP. Bring back Greenspan, and we can return to the days of US financial supremecy!
I don't know what's wrong with you people. Because of Dick, we don't need taxes on corporations at all. Just run a bigger deficit, because Dick says it's OK. In fact, we don't need taxes at all. Eliminate all regulations, banking, food safety, water safety, all of it. If there's any problem, let the Fed just print more $$$, because Dick likes it.
The US was a better country, when we all liked Dick, and the rest of the world was afraid of Dick. So support your Dick!
"...STOP WAR. CANCEL ALL DEBT. REDISTRIBUTE WEALTH..."
Right. In a novel that would work. In the real world will never happen.
Fix what you can fix - get physically and financially healthy, and stay that way.
Pay off all your debt and stay debt free.
Ride a bike with panniers bags to haul cargo on your local shopping errands.
Quit paying high gas prices and use the bike transport to get healthy and stay healthy.
The folks who are expecting Uncle Sam to take care of them down the road, with social security and medicare and medicade are already lost.
They really think theres going to be a 'redistribution of the wealth' to the landless peasantry class? Now thats all-out delusion right there.
yep, and the only "0redistribution of wealth" possible is this: from Fiat currency into PM's... and thats happening already
Redistributing wealth requires a strongman with full power over everyone.
That always turns out SO well.
Very well written, thanks.
Clinton could've fixed all this through monicatization of our debt. Unfortunately the opportunity was blown.
You're a ZH Starr! Have a cigar but look out for the devil in the blue dress.
Have a cigar!
That was funny. My only regret is that I have but one up arrow I can give you.
I would have preferred to use the Clinton surplus model for the last 12 years so we could pay down our debt.
/sarc for the slow
strong words. we'll see.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D3nLLI-CilM
Time for all the billionaires to have an exit plan out of the US. When Bernanke and the Fed's game hits reality it's gonna be big.
Countries are already getting away from the US dollar. Counries are getting wise to Bernanke and the Fed's Ponzi printing scheme.
The emperor has no clothes. All BS. Benanke;s strategy is to keep bluffing the rest of the world. As long as they all take in the BS everything is fine.
Time for operation Squash! For the rest of the world to call Bernanke and the Fed's bluff and squash their printing. Start demanding much higher rates to buy any US debt.
MDB you are quite the witty one!
What a perfect name for the FED'S one trick pony... Minsky, I like that Jim. It will be interesting to see how they will monetize the Trillion needed to keep the show going until election time, hopefully Minsky doesn't die before then. My guess is they will not be able to sell any tickets to the show as everybody will know by then that it is nothing more then a washed up ring master and a tired old pony named Minsky.
Pastor Lindsey Williams Details "Economic Calamity" Ahead
http://www.savethemales.ca/dear_friends_and_family.html
First he claims to be a crony of the "elite," but he is only a Big Oil crony and they have been replaced by the bankers.
He predicted it to happen in 2009. Ooops.
He predicted that $50 oil would bankrupt the Arabs.
He missed that Benny & the Inkjets could print our way out of those two messes (thus far).
While he has many points that one should hear, he isn't the fortuneteller/insider he portrays himself to be.
Bullshit on this call- TBTF banks and CBs will continue to hover treasuries...BTFD- this is not a market but a series of concerted interventions as many before me have observed...can kicked, apoclapse averted for now....fuk it
It's just plain ole' stupidity why anyone would buy our debt right now with negative real interest rates. Paying someone for the privelage of borrowing them money is called charity. In other words, the US government is receiving charity from the world.
All started by the Jewish bankers in 1913 and we will now live the nightmare of this unelected, unconstitutional group of gangsters.
J.P. Morgan was Episcopalian.
Doesn't matter - they need someone to blame. If it ain't Jews, it's immigrants.
Not enough Gypsies to blame nowadays, so at least they've escaped... I think.
I thought Obama said this about the Supreme Court. Damn, I can't keep this straight. Will someone draw me a map? To the cloud, William! Banzai!
Luciferns.Fixed it.
I don't know how the geniuses at ZH miss breaking news like this but they do:
German woman reunited with cat after 16 yearshttp://news.yahoo.com/german-woman-reunited-cat-16-years-002631360.html
A German woman was preparing Wednesday for an emotional reunion with her long-lost cat, missing and thought dead, but then handed in after 16 years apparently living in the woods, an animal home said.
I hear they are going to make a reality show out of this....
The most probable trigger set for the demise of the current dominance of first world economies will be the dual effect of increased treasury costs coupled with the demise of the US dollar's effective reserve currency status. The former is, as stated in the article, on autopilot today and it is but a matter of time when sovereign debts become unmanageable. The latter will be the coming emergence of the 5R's; that is, the Real, Ruble, Rupee, Renminbi and Rand; as in the BRICS cross national bank that is being developed today. Together, these currencies have the breadth, depth and support to topple the US dollar. All they need is structure and recognition. Their planned bank, coupled with some coordinated national financial policy work, will provide the structure, and as for recognition - heed the words of Robert Zoellick, outgoing President of the World Bank, who publically endorsed the establishment of this bank. It's coming, and with it the growing irrelevance of the current reserve currency. That is the most likely trigger for the failure of treasury auctions, after which the road to "all hell breaks loose" has been well mapped by many open minded economists.
It will be interesting to see how the generations will react. The boomers have nothing further to gain; however, the millenials have nothing to lose. X'ers will likely decide which way the balance of power will shift. I'm putting my money on the X'ers, on average, going with the millenials. Looks like it's soon going to be the time that we finally "take the baby out of baby boomer".
I am on the cusp of the gen x and the boomers. I know where I stand and it's certainly not with the status quo.
So here's the thing
In 2008
the banks were saved
governments assumed all bank liability
In 2012 the banks are flush ,
the hedgies are being bent over as we speak
governments are broke
It is very possible that the Chair Satan and his Italian twin will not print, but in fact, bring down the house now that their real masters are ready to buy cheap 5 cent assets in bulk.
Thus catching every smuck unaware.
Thus the transition from bank crisis to entity crisis is complete.
Banks rape the victims who are left
The banks aren't flush at all, that's the problem. The reason they're permitted to continue operating (and robbing everyone blind) is a misguided effort to keep them alive.
The thinking goes: "IF the insolvent zombies steal enough money, perhaps they'll recover and the monetary system won't collapse."
They don't care if the monetary system collapses. They control the military and law enforcement (to a point). They've been through this before, and are still in charge.
Next.
Who's "they" in your world?
The subjects of 'The Creature From Jekyll Island' and the original printing of 'Tragedy and Hope'. There's a good reason these books are banned from every Economics and Political Science department.
Things might be different if 'The Creature . . .' was requred reading during Econ 101.
On the other hand, if one were a narcissistic psychopath, it sure tells one where to apply for work.
Maybe that's why there are so many people applying for work at Goldman Sachs every year. Hmm.
As good a "they" as any. I think the issue is that whether it's Goldman Sachs or the BOE or the IMF, there's always a suitable place for the financial supremacists to find work.
Well, after reading all the posts on this article all I can say is.....Have a Nice Day. :) Yikes!
"this election is the most important in our lifetime"
geeeze 'common already. I've heard that EVERY FRIGGIN ELECTION.
its ALWAYS the most important. maybe that also means that it isn't.
Lol @ gold 1300, madness.... maybe 2300? or 3300 but 1300? lol the bernank would have to pull a rabbit out of his ass to make that one happen.
"The Federal Reserve cannot buy $1 trillion of Treasury bonds per year forever without creating more speculative bubbles and raging inflation in the things people need to live."
Wanna bet?
"The reunification and reenergizing of society has yet to occur"
I think that moment has passed the US in the last election and took it entirely in the wrong direction....... the last US election and the reaction to Obama pre-election was all the reunification and reenergizing talked about here ...
Barack’s appeal is actually messianic…he…communicates God-like energy.… What if God decided to incarnate as men preaching “hope and change”? And what if we…let them slip away, not availing ourselves…to be led by God!—Steve Davis, Journal Gazette[vi]
This is bigger than Kennedy.… This is the New Testament! I felt this thrill going up my leg. I mean, I don’t have that too often. No, seriously. It’s a dramatic event. —Chris Matthews,MSNBC[vii]
Does it not feel as if some special hand is guiding Obama on his journey, I mean, as he has said, the utter improbability of it all? —Daily Kos[viii]
Obama, to me, must be not just an ordinary human being but indeed an Advanced Soul, come to lead America out of this mess. —Lynn Sweet, Chicago Sun Times[ix]
He is not operating on the same plane as ordinary politicians…the agent of transformation in an age of revolution, as a figure uniquely qualified to open the door to the twenty-first century. —Former U.S. Senator Gary Hart,Huffington Post[x]
He is not the Word made flesh [Jesus], but the triumph of word over flesh [better than Jesus?].… Obama is, at his best, able to call us back to our highest selves. —Ezra Klein, Prospect[xi]
Obama has the capacity to summon heroic forces from the spiritual depths of ordinary citizens and to unleash therefrom a symphonic chorus of unique creative acts whose common purpose is to tame the soul and alleviate the great challenges facing mankind. —Gerald Campbell, First Things First[xii]
Obama was…blessed and highly favored.… I think that…his election…was divinely ordered.… I’m a preacher and a pastor; I know that that was God’s plan.… I think he is being used for some purpose. —Janny Scott, New York Times[xiii]
He won’t just heal our city-states and souls. He won’t just bring the Heavenly Kingdom—dreamt of in both Platonism and Christianity—to earth. He will heal the earth itself. —Micah Tillman,The Free Liberal[xiv]
The event itself is so extraordinary that another chapter could be added to the Bible to chronicle its significance. —Rep. Jesse Jackson Jr.,Politico[xv]
I'm a little afraid to see how this god child will react if Obummer care is stricken down by the supreme court.
I think we should take care to save these quotes, as a warning to all future generations that politics destroys brains.
No, the moment hasn't passed yet.
You can tell because everybody ( except a few weirdos like ZH readers ) are still clinging to the old paradigm, waiting for things to "get back to normal".
The moment will be here when most people, or most of the leading-edge 5%, realize: "We must change or die."
Those quotes would be funny, if they weren't so scary.
As a Canadian (it's our mandate to think all politicians to be a self-serving lot), I find it humerous that your talking heads think the next prophet will be a politician!
What next?! The Virgin Mary is a distant relative of the Kardashians?
In other news, Prince Charles says he's related to Vlad the Impaler!!
Well, he probably is. A lot of inbreeding went on for centuries before Tay-Sachs became apparent.
And Vlad did stop the Muslim Horde. Not something I think Europe wants to go through again.
when the mind is modeled in religious terms, one always sees a saviour in the father-figures - that the parallel is made with government (daddy provider) is not lost on some. . .
there have been recent echoes of "the new saviour" to be elected, but as always, the latest incarnation is blessed and the last one cursed.
rinse. repeat.
Barf.
Thorough analysis except for the issue of the class war won recently by the rich. American Fascism (as defined by Mussolini, being a coalition of government and major corporate business concerns) is on the rise.
Horrid Post Nasda99....You should be thrown off this site for speading your racist diatribe. Shame on you. Is that a paper bag on your head or a "White Hood"?
Unreal
What does it matter what kind of easing is done or how, when they know the US is going to war? US consumers are intentionally being squeezed by the US government, and Iran is going to play the part of the patsy.
the ltro was a start, a trial ballon. the solution to the current problem is the infinity bond priced at zirp with an interest only payback. that way all the accounting will add up neatly and no one has to pay anything. it would be an automatic, painless reset. i am surprised some quant hasn't been able to come up with a plan like this unless it is the armageddon plan.
If the regeneration comes, those with a statist mindset are likely not to be able to recognize it at first.
The last three cycles have led to greater centralization of power. It does not follow that the next one will.
A more general view would be "The regeneration begins when social structures begin to coalesce around a new paradigm."
In this cycle, the crisis has been caused by too much central power, by state control over money that soon became private control over money, and by the resultant failure of representative democracy.
The new paradigm, if it comes, will solve those problems.
SmokeyQuinn;
Just to make sure you do not miss it.
Hugh G Rection
2315552Since nobody else at this point is reading the comments Jim, let me be frank. I voted for Bush twice. I was a Reagan disciple, Israel supporting, far right zionist neocon. When I saw Jane Standley document the collapse of a building standing behind her (wtc7), I tried my best to find evidence to debunk it. People like Charlie Sheen and Rosie O made me sick. I dismissed their claims because they're America hating liberals. I came from as far right as possible Jim. I once almost went fist city with an Arab in college because I told a marine in a bar I would give him $20 for every bloody turbin he brought back...not proud of who I was, just trying to paint a picture.
Not to say the left is where the truth is... What we are presented with today is a false paradigm. This isn't a shadowy religous belief that can't be documented or proven, my transformation is based entirely on fact. At this point I KNOW the who and why. My intuition tells me you know as well. I implore you smoke, wake up and join the good guys. We will welcome you with open arms. All the dual citizen traitors and Israel can't be saved. Their fate has been sealed since the Lavon Affair and the USS Liberty. The dual citizen sayanim will have it the worst. Dr. Sabrosky isn't blowing hot air. Think long and hard about your 'career' decisions.
Truth Smokey, it's bulletproof.
Among my friends are a Navy Seal, a Ranger Sniper, 2 decorated Marines, and a fighter pilot still serving on the USS Lincoln.
While not all are outspoken, we all know the truth. Don't find yourself in the Hague with the likes of zionist asshats like Hannity and O'Reilly.
.........................................................................................
"... I have three teenage sons and their futures depend on the outcome of this Crisis. I will do whatever it takes to support them. I will not allow them to be cannon fodder... If their future requires me to oppose a tyrannical government, so be it. ... If I have to die so they may live, so be it.... Are you ready?..."
DP,I found that moving.very few thing move me.
We're way past right/left (distraction at this stage). It's closer to - what can we do/create to survive the madness and the madmen? I know one thing - Get out of their game as quickly as possible with as much as you can. My most serious endeavor - have the corporate, goverment and military people just forget who I am, was or will be. Legitimacy is becoming a lost concept (Yeah, they won't get my kids either - for anything). Integrity is already gone. Time to make plans with those you trust. They want it all and will do anything to get it. Even if the author is only half correct, it's time to begin making plans, friendships, alliances, etc. Yeah, right, paranoid? I think not. Practical, very much so. Good luck to you.
You aint seen nothing yet©. There, fixed it. Bachman Turner overdrive material. Lawyers may be watching
Spain is at the forefront like Greece. What happens in those countries is NOT being learned in Washington DC by anyone. It will ALL end very badly.
http://confoundedinterest.wordpress.com/2012/04/04/the-pain-in-spain-lies-mainly-in-the-bailout-redux-of-charge-of-the-light-brigade/
Yawn. Same ole regurgitated 4th turning bullshit from lardass Jim Quinn...a keyboard warrior who probably couldn't crack out 10 pushups.
"Once more unto the breach my friends!!! I'll be wheezing and cramping behind you!!!"
He has literally written this exact same trilogy three times in the past year, right down to the "winter's coming...batten down the hatches" bullshit at the end.
Why don't you stop gargling on Howe's nuts and come up with your own ideas, you fucking bremalo.
Regenerated via Evolution, versus Mankind's, "Seven Deadliest Sins"?
Quote [sic]:___The "Neanderthal Man", the first human being in the true sense, had a brain capacity 100cc larger than "Modern Man". Question; What does this say of "Darwinism"? It is said that the human eye's can perceive more than a million simultaneously visual impressions, and are able to discriminate among eight-million gradations of color, in less time than a blink. Why? If true,... than the vast amount of intelligence gathered in a lifetime would give solace to mankind's progression - the perpetual re-birthing of cognitive dissonance. We are all creatures from the sea, as it were postulated by Darwin. In fact the chemical composite substance of "Human-Blood", most closely resembles "Sea-Water"? The entire planet is seventy-percent water, and the human body is ~seventy-percent water. Is this by coincidence? Or is there something truly telling about our "Genetic Make-Up"?
Have we learned from history? We certainly have progressed in weaponry throughout the last couple of millenniums. Enough so that we have the capacity to "End-the-World" through nuclear annihilation. It truly would be foolish for anyone to think life would be worth living post WWIII. But, that seems to be where we are heading, as the world turns, ever-so-swiftly, as time itself seems to have sped-up. Sounds familiar, doesn't it?
Congratulations on a wonderfully written, and thought provoking piece of literature, Mr James Quinn! Bravo!!!
Lastly:
'as the world shakes with irrational emotions -- the loneliness holds my feelings in captivity -- lips of speech quivering eternal thirst for justice... where my parched tongue taste but a bitter tainted cup of hemlock... fraught with anguish and despair -- senses awaken unbounded consciousness... once abandoned in the myriads of merriment seasons past -- the days of wine and roses... the grandiose wonderment of mankind in flight... the whirlwinds of chiming ecstasy when one thought possible how easy it twas to tempt the hand of fate... indeed -- the ever ending fire within -- hush thy burning candle on a never ending wicked wick my fallen angle warned -- the ringing of drooling wax... my pride I say... forlorn my glory... soon to be fallen by a crippling hopelessness -- a fitting eulogy for a fool's innocence lost where sight was of abundance were it not for indulgence -- now thy desecrated waste... this diabolical substance of essence -- what will become of this perilous deity... this thing -- the undeniable past made wholly present... as if walking through a forest with naught even a tree'
jmo
flag as gibberish (1)
It will be known as The Great Regression due to the time it will take for the future to catch up to today having gone back to retake the wrong step we took years ago.
And yeah, I'm fucking fearlessly ready. This is no less than the battle for supremacy over the human condition; cognitive love/hate humans vs the primal fear/craving manipulators. Bring 'em on, let's have it out.
If we print 17 trillion more then there is no debt only poor people and wealthier 1% and then Russian revolution would happen to confiscate there wealth.
fucking assholes are trying to look us in. http://losangeles.cbslocal.com/2012/04/04/owe-the-irs-bill-would-suspend...
Wait till the "World Dollar" is introduced.
Controlled by the BIS/IMF it will be backed by gold (because they will sieze all of it they can), the amount will be questionable and never audited, but governments will be allowed to print, based on allotment.
Yeah, that will work.
"Tell future elders they will need to be more self-sufficient, save more, and expect fewer entitlements."
Fuck. LOL.
Well I already made my $1k for the week on the net doing my version of American Pickers which i've been doing before this show ever existed and never even knew what a picker was. Never did I think id have to do it because I had to though. Be just real fkn great when they get the internet fkd all up when I can't do it anymore.
Well screw it goin to get some beer i've read enough shit for one day. Well, till I get drunk lol. This site is then 10x better, believe it or not. You know we could all survive this situation if we had to. But since the government just has to stay in power and try and control every freakin disaster that comes with disastrous policies we're just screwed im afraid. If they'd just step aside and let us worry about things that really matter in the most basic sense we could make it work. Oh no.......we can't have that. If we can't have it all no one can. We're gona nuke your fkn ass and you group of people over there are gona get drone bombed for protesting our your curfew. I'm sorry to say....it's never going to work.
My vision of the future after all out collapse resembles Mad Max. Don't worry though, we'll probably still have Iphones and citibank will be calling delinquent customers 24/7 lmfao!
Sam Rogers: The real question is: who are we selling this to?
John Tuld: The same people we've been selling it to for the last two years, and whoelse ever would buy it.
Sam Rogers: But John, if you do this, you will kill the market for years. It's over.
[John nods grimly]
Sam Rogers: And you're selling something that you *know* has no value.
John Tuld: We are selling to willing buyers at the current fair market price.
[Sam lowers his gaze]
John Tuld: So that we may survive.
Sam Rogers: You would never sell anything to any of those people ever again.
John Tuld: I understand.
Sam Rogers: Do you?
John Tuld: Do *you*?
John Tuld: [pounding on the desk] This is it! I'm telling you this is it!
At least, being the "best looking horse in the glue factory" gives me hope...You think?...
Maybe, I can really dazzle 'em with a few tricks!
Look, the macro economic trajectory is dictated by three things; demographics and the distance (%, STD, whatever way you want to measure it) and the rate at which an economy displaces from the demographics upon which an economy is made.
How can you know when someone is trying to create a relationship that distorts the historical context? Here's one very good indicator, when the data is presented in anything other than percentage &/or logarithmic terms.
The amount of debt matters ONLY in relation to the size of the demographic base.
Here's the Heisenberg Uncertainty Principle problem with Fiat Currency based Keynesian economic systems. One can not measure the true impact of Keynesian tools when the debt is small.
Heisenberg Uncertainty Principle is the problem of determining where an electron is in an atom. If you shoot a particle at it, like a billiard ball, the only thing you know is where it was.
There comes a point where the amount of debt is so large that the Heisenberg Uncertainty Principle tells you exactly where the electron/debt is. But at some point the measuring tool becomes irrelevant. The electron [the debt] has grown so big that it destroys the atom. [Yes I know electrons dont grow].
But this is what we do know. At some point, the Keynesian tool is definitely not moving the electron debt like a billiard ball. In effect the tool becomes useless.
This at heart is the fundamental problem of why economics as a discipline is really no different than sociology, psychology or political science BS.
Once the currency system came off of the gold standard it became impossible to in any consistent or remotely reliable way to truly measure the long term effects of fiscal or monetary policy. In effect the whole economic system became a puppet, a Muppet, of those who have control over the printing press. Economics became a puppet show.
Since the time the whole world bought into the fiat game, the puppet show became merely Muppets playing Musical Chairs. A game of relative position.
The Muppets are the Sheeple. The chairs merely represent how far the fiat and fiscal games of the puppet masters got ahead or behind the demographic head count of Muppet's.
this article was way too turgid and corpulent....
there will be no 4th turning except into the toilet....regeneracy is a blithering imbicility....
Look, when push come sto shove, the treasury will have no funding problems, because everyone will be scared into buying treasuries as a safety play. The bernank may be backed against the wall, but he will sacrifice the stock market before he screws the dollar/treasury market completely. He's walking a tight line, but he is not going to lose the bond market. No frickin way. Deflation is coming....in a big bad way....buy treasuries, short gold and commodities.
oh that cannot be true, because i keep reading here that his masters insist that he saves the stock market at all cost, and if it goes down, the Fed uses secret accounts and secret funds that dont show up in any government accounting, and are so secret that even Ron Paul cant find them, to buy the stock market up. so it just goes up forever. just like it did in 2008... er, well, maybe not in 2008.... or 1989, well, maybe not then either ... or 2000. ok sometimes anyway. and we cant possibly have deflation, because all the QE is going to cause hyperinflation, so i read.. one day, just not sure when. obviously a lot of lags involved...
A small correction.
Everyone knows "USA", Greece, Portugal, Spain and Italy are broke.
----
For the last 30 years, growth was being generated by borrowing.
The borrowed money did not exist. It was created, (heheh, God Work)
Can borrowing, (creation of money), continue without paying back the lender with interest?
Who or what organization is capable to continue lending without getting their loans paid back?
How long can loans be given out with only a token cash flow coming back to the lenders?
At some point in time, there has to be loan forgiveness and a rebalancing of the books. (There has to be a recognition that bankers are false gods)
The participants of all this fraudulent accounting are well aware of what is happening and must continue the pretend game.
There is no other game in town.
In the words of the sous chef, "When are they going to fucking attack!".
this game can go on a long time. it has been going on a long time. people have been calling the crash since the 1970s and everything in their analysis was correct, just as it is now. but the banks and their government in washington can still play many cards from their sleeve. for exmple they can simple create money and loan it to foreign nations so they can buy the usa debt, same with private buyers. the dollar will not collapse until people loose confidence in it, not because of a failed auction that will never be allowed to take place. what will kill the dollar is when other currencies replace it and no one needs it any more. when that happens you can prepare for your doomsday scenario. until then, we wait.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T0wm3JwXbLs
i have nothing meaningful to contribute.
historical note:
the Fed has NOT bought $1tr of Treasuries per year, and has not executed any QE for 1.5 years. nor did it cause any speculative bubble, nor hyperinflation.
back to reality, this is what they did:
Nov 2008
600 MBS
200 securitized consumer loans
Mch 2009
300 UST
750 MBS
Nov 2010
600 UST
This was a really great series!