The Inevitability Of US-China Conflict

Tyler Durden's picture




 

The question of whether conflict between US and China is inevitable is among the most important for the world as the US-China relationship, as JPMorgan's Michael Cembalest notes, is likely to be one of the most important issues of the 21st century. The inevitability view is sometimes explained by the thesis that countries rarely rise economically without also doing so militarily. The chart below looks at the major economic powers of the world since the year 1 at various intervals. Ignore for the moment some of the abstract issues which this kind of data involves; it’s pretty clear that China’s rise, fall and subsequent rise is something that hasn’t happened a lot over the past 2,000 years, and that the United States is on the front lines of having to adjust to it. Cembalest's recent interview with Henry Kissinger noted the impact of China's troubled relations with the West during the 19th century, which remains on China's political consciousness, and how China might define its interests in different ways than the West would, whether they relate to global energy security, North Korea, global warming, currency management or trade.

On China, and the not-so-inevitable clash of civilizations

At a client event in Beijing last week, I had the opportunity to interview Henry Kissinger on the 40th anniversary of his secret 1971 mission to meet with Zhou Enlai, and 1972 summit meeting with Richard Nixon and Mao Zedong. There are not many missions as impactful as this one was: within a few years, China’s re-opening began, propelled by Deng Xioping’s economic reforms. Reintegrating 20% of the world’s population following China’s central planning disasters of the 1950’s and 1960’s has not been easy for China or for the West, which has since benefited from lower imported goods prices from China, but saw an end to post-war manufacturing-led prosperity. The US-China relationship is likely to be one of the most important issues of the 21st century.

 

One topic we discussed was the question of whether conflict between the US and China is inevitable, a theme which has permeated a lot of academic and political science journals over the last 20 years. The “inevitable conflict” view has been advanced in different degrees by Yale’s Paul Kennedy, Princeton’s Robert Gilpin and most forcefully, by John Mearshimer at the University of Chicago. Similar concerns are found in “The End of China’s Peaceful Rise”, a 2010 article in Foreign Policy magazine by Elizabeth Economy, Director of Asia Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations. The inevitability view is sometimes explained by the thesis that countries rarely rise economically without also doing so militarily. The chart below looks at the major economic powers of the world since the year 1 at various intervals. Ignore for the moment some of the abstract issues which this kind of data involves; it’s pretty clear that China’s rise, fall and subsequent rise is something that hasn’t happened a lot over the past 2,000 years, and that the United States is on the front lines of having to adjust to it.

 

 

 

 

Any discussion of China’s engagement with the world needs to factor in China’s troubled relations with the West during the 19th century. Kissinger spoke about the impact this era continues to have on China’s political consciousness, which you can grasp by looking at some data and charts: opium imported into China which addicted up to 25% of its adult population, the exodus of Chinese silver to England and India to pay for it, and the collapse in China’s trade surplus. The Chinese Imperial Commissioner sent a letter to Queen Victoria asking her to cease the opium trade, which was banned in China in 1729 and again in 1836. Britain ignored the request. After a Chinese blockade of opium ships, the British invaded in 1840, and easily defeated the Chinese. China was forced to sign the Treaty of Nanking, one of the more one-sided treaties in history. The opium trade then doubled, leading to another war (and Chinese defeat) 20 years later. The Opium Wars played a large part in the collapse of the Qing Dynasty and subsequent occupation by foreign powers. This is not seen as ancient history in China.

 

 

With this backdrop, Kissinger encouraged our guests to understand how China might define its interests in different ways than the West would, whether they relate to global energy security, North Korea, global warming, currency management or trade. Kissinger acknowledges the pressures that come from an ideological predisposition in the US to confront the non-democratic world, and Chinese tendencies to sometimes view cooperation with the US as being self-defeating. However, engagement with the West is now central to China achieving its economic goals, and incoming governments in both China and the United States have every incentive to maintain the status quo. According to Kissinger, while conventional theories of realism in international politics point to potential conflict, it would be an overly literal interpretation to consider conflict inevitable. Both sides have a lot to lose and little to gain from conflict escalation, creating conditions in which compromises should be able to be found. If he’s right, US-China relations would be another thing that could go right in the world, confounding more negative expectations.

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Tue, 06/19/2012 - 13:25 | 2539768 Revert_Back_to_...
Revert_Back_to_1792_Act's picture

Road to Roota

www.bostonfed.org/education/pubs/roota.pdf

Wishes and Rainbows!

Um..it's not working.

www.youtube.com/watch?v=XXkzxHVndCE

 

 

Tue, 06/19/2012 - 09:48 | 2539173 Azannoth
Azannoth's picture

I could easily see the Russians backstabbing China and showing them selves as secret US/Zionist allies, maybe not with Putin but if the Zionists staged a successful coup against him Russia could be in their hands overnight

besides I do see a lot of cooperation between Russia and the West(Zionists) even now

- they refuse to expose the Holohoax (maybe for their internal reasons but still)

- they refuse to expose the UFO/Alien information they have (same maybe for internal reasons) even though the US is the biggest beneficiary of UFO secrecy

- they seem to do very little to expose/undermine the Zionists hegemony over the world, even though they surely have access to many top secret information that could throw a serious monkey wrench into the system

- the always seem to be too nice when opposing foreign military interventions of the West

Either the Russians have a secret hidden agenda or they are just paper tigers either too impotent or participating in the Zionist schemes, after all Russia was ruled by Bolshevik(Zionists) very long and influence like that does not dissapear overnight

 

Tue, 06/19/2012 - 09:48 | 2539180 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Funny, I see it the other way around.  The U.S. elites and owners would love for Americans to work for Chinese wages.  This has been the plan all along.

Tue, 06/19/2012 - 11:02 | 2539451 HungrySeagull
HungrySeagull's picture

Or pack 9000 Beds into a shipping container for work at a moment's notice on tea and one biscuit.

Tue, 06/19/2012 - 11:09 | 2539477 smb12321
smb12321's picture

 Isn't it amazing that despite the absolute power and control of the 1%, posters know all the details of their nefarious dark plans?  But fortunately they spread this info through You Tube (with appropriate scary background music) that source of deep historical research.  How do they get this inside information so easily?  is there a 1% mole releasing minutes  of the latest Davos discussions?    ("...and contact Niko about our scheme toi reduced US wages... ")  Inquiring minds want to know!

Tue, 06/19/2012 - 11:17 | 2539527 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Commen sense really.  Corporations care about one thing and one thing only, profits.  Wake the fuck up, corporations now control all governments, hence, the last thing you should expect to see go up are wages.  Go take a look at tax receipts, the data is clear as day.  The average American wage has been declining for years.

Tue, 06/19/2012 - 13:40 | 2540109 strangeglove
strangeglove's picture

This is why we SNAP!

Tue, 06/19/2012 - 12:00 | 2539737 my puppy for prez
my puppy for prez's picture

Try Carol Quigley, "Tragedy and Hope" for starters.

Better get readin'....it's a long one!

Of course, you are an acrimoneous sort, so I don't expect you to take anyone's advice.

Tue, 06/19/2012 - 09:59 | 2539220 Sanksion
Sanksion's picture

UFO technology ? Come on...

Tue, 06/19/2012 - 10:10 | 2539239 my puppy for prez
my puppy for prez's picture

"I could easily see the Russians backstabbing China and showing them selves as secret US/Zionist allies, maybe not with Putin but if the Zionists staged a successful coup against him Russia could be in their hands overnight"

I think that is EXACTLY the case!  I know that sounds crazy, but go find this short paper in pdf form on the internet:

 

The Life of an American Jew  

in Racist Marxist Israel 

by Jack Bernstein; 1985

 

http://solargeneral.com/library/the-life-of-an-american-jew-in-racist-ma...

 

(Note:  Every pdf file I have found has the last line of many pages cut off, but it is still understandable nonetheless.)

 

He was a Jew who became thoroughly disgusted with the State of Israel, and he decided to write an expose on what he knew.  He discusses the Bolshevik-based alliance which he called the NY-Moscow-Tel Aviv Triangle.  It is a fascinating concept!  He was subsequently assassinated by the Mossad.

 

Russia to this day contains a strong Jewish-Bolshevik element, and they work in cooperation with the central bankers and Israel.  Russia is simply posturing to seem anti-Israel.  Read his paper to understand how this triangle works and its goals.

 


Tue, 06/19/2012 - 11:12 | 2539501 smb12321
smb12321's picture

Thanks for this informative, TIMELY article that seems so...realistic. (LOL)  Jesus, what is wrong with folks that their entire lives are guided by convoluted, absurd and crazy conspiracies?  

Russia was an earlier supporter of Israel due to the Socialist bent of Zionism.  She made the strategic decision to throw her wait to the Arabs when Israel became more overtly pro-Western.  It's no mystery.

Tue, 06/19/2012 - 11:56 | 2539709 my puppy for prez
my puppy for prez's picture

You have every right to hold SIMPLISTIC views....and I won't insult you for it, unlike your uncivilized manner of discourse.  I did not write the piece.  A Jew, who lived in Israel, did.  

I don't take "conspiracy" as an insult, as history is replete with them.

Have a nice day!

Tue, 06/19/2012 - 15:51 | 2540608 Disenchanted
Disenchanted's picture

 

puppy

 

I think this is a complete version, but it's not a .pdf file

 

http://iamthewitness.com/The.Life.of.an.American.Jew.in.Israel.htm

Tue, 06/19/2012 - 10:17 | 2539293 Anglo Canuck
Anglo Canuck's picture

You lost me at "Holohoax". The Israeli government may be a miserable bunch of bastards, but that doesnt change the reality of the holocaust.

Tue, 06/19/2012 - 10:40 | 2539381 prodigious_idea
prodigious_idea's picture

I thought I was alone in my reaction until you posted.  Was looking around for the door.

Tue, 06/19/2012 - 10:45 | 2539401 Max Hunter
Max Hunter's picture

Don't let it hit you in the ass.. This is the fight club.. Propaganda and long term conditioning is fair game here.. thank god

Tue, 06/19/2012 - 11:10 | 2539464 prodigious_idea
prodigious_idea's picture

You obviously haven't met many survivors from that period.  But maybe you Holo-phobics could explain the advantage of a hoax.  And then follow up with the advantage of exposing it.  Something meaningful, like food on the table?  Enjoy the last word.

Tue, 06/19/2012 - 11:10 | 2539488 Max Hunter
Max Hunter's picture

It's called sympathy. The eternal victims.. Now they are given a free pass to steal land that belongs to Palestinians and murder civilians.. It's a big mind fuck religion.. Advantage.. Fuck you.. It's so obvious.. A child could figure it out..

Tue, 06/19/2012 - 11:14 | 2539512 Sanksion
Sanksion's picture

I would argue that TPTB know you need to bring freedom and democracy to bomb and steal arabs. No one will ask you how many fellow pals died in WW2 because it is irrelevant.

Tue, 06/19/2012 - 11:18 | 2539543 Azannoth
Azannoth's picture

I was born in Poland my family lived through WW2 and experienced it 1st hand, I can tell you that nobody that is NOBODY had any 1st 2nd or 3rd hand account of Gas Chambers or anything else that was supposedly to be the holocaust. None of my Grand-Grandparents knew anybody who had seen heard or smelled it, get it?

The only stories I have heard are of the garden-variety war stories and war atrocities but nothing even remotely resembling the holocaust, and get this all stories I have heard from my grand-grand parents praised the Germans for their compassionate behavior(considering it was war) and many many bad stories about what the Russians and Allies did immediately after it

Tue, 06/19/2012 - 12:56 | 2539924 potlatch
potlatch's picture

don't feed the trolls dude.  it is a particularly unpleasant aspect of this site, all the jew baiting nonsense. 

 

Economic BS brings out lots of anger.  Just let them rant about the RoT HCH ilds (you have to write it funny or they detect it) and find a better discussion to post in ;)  You can't argue with them.

Tue, 06/19/2012 - 11:20 | 2539551 smb12321
smb12321's picture

The Holohoax comment is quivering just beneath the surface of many posters.  You see it in the comments - "Jew boy", "bunch of Jews". etc.  I know, I know, I also thought that stuff disappeared decades ago but  hatred for religious reasons is obviously not confined to Islam.   Still, thankfully, It's only a small (but very vocal) minority who hold such views.

Tue, 06/19/2012 - 10:44 | 2539395 Max Hunter
Max Hunter's picture

Reality?  Who's reality?  6 million?  Not even close. Probably 1/10th that at the most and majority of them died from disease and starvation as did millions of Europeans during those years.  People that call out these facts do not deny, they dispute the numbers, conditions and reasons..

Tue, 06/19/2012 - 16:21 | 2540727 RallyRoundTheFamily
RallyRoundTheFamily's picture

The truth does not need laws to protect it.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Laws_against_Holocaust_denial

Tue, 06/19/2012 - 10:47 | 2539402 Azannoth
Azannoth's picture

Read this "Did 6 Million realy die"(from google results i have no affiliation with the site), it's very short and come back to tell me how you think about after you read it

@Max Hunter yes ofc but please don't turn this tread into a holocaust debate, I won't either

Tue, 06/19/2012 - 11:08 | 2539470 Max Hunter
Max Hunter's picture

Why do you care where this thread goes?  Why is it, after it is implied that those who don't "believe" like everyone else on this subject are haters and demonized, the subject must be ended?  I will look at the link.. I've read much on the subject. I will not allow the deaths of European Jews be exagerated and more importantly, viewed as somehow more important than the deaths of others.  This Holocaust religion needs to be seen for what it really is; a pack of lies being used to give Jews a free pass to kill Arabs and exhonoration for all of their historical crimes (parasitic in nature) against humanity..

Tue, 06/19/2012 - 13:07 | 2539960 Herd Redirectio...
Herd Redirection Committee's picture

Its not that people are against usury (that bankers, regardless of 'religion' or 'ethnicity' are despised), their problem is they are anti-semitic!  Yeah!  Thats it!

A lot of people died before, during, and after WWII, and its pretty sick when some of those deaths are supposed to be more significant than others.  And if you don't agree, you are a racist, apparently!

Any one remember the story about Granddaddy Prescott Bush financing Hitler?  Sad truth is there are people who are willing to play both sides, and even sacrifice their fellow human beings if there is something to be gained by it.  These people are rightly called psychopaths, and there is no cure for psychopathy.

All we can do is expose them.  Right now there are psychopaths at the top of many corporations and governments, and guess what, psychos can spot other psychos a mile away, and work with each other.

A lot of the time we rationalize the actions of these psychos by calling them greedy.  Well, they are.  But more accurately they are power hungry.  More money just means more power to them.

Tue, 06/19/2012 - 11:34 | 2539614 akak
akak's picture

That 6 Million figure is an insult to the memory of the TEN MILLION who did actually die in Nazi concentration camps and gas chambers.  The Holocaust was NOT just about the Jews!  Millions of Slavs (especially Poles), Gypsies, and other ethnicities were targeted for extermination by the Nazi death machine as well.

Tue, 06/19/2012 - 11:54 | 2539701 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

akak, ol buddy, ol pal, pls gmail me at my name.  Something going you might like...  :)

Tue, 06/19/2012 - 11:39 | 2539630 shovelhead
shovelhead's picture

Zionists AND Aliens...

Can't get scarier than that.

"Oy, This planet is so humid, I'm spritzing like a goy."

Tue, 06/19/2012 - 11:37 | 2539624 caconhma
caconhma's picture

Azannoth,

This are the answers:

  • the Russians have a secret hidden agenda AND they are  paper tigers but with many nukes but without a regular army
  • Putin and the Russian oligarchy are gangsters and thieves  who keep their money and their loot in the Zionist owned & controlled European banks. Consequently, they are under very heavy Zionist influence
  • Putin and the Russian oligarchy are hated by Russian people and, seeing what Zionists have done to Saddam, Qaddafi, Mubarak, have no places to run except stay and survive in Russia
  • China, as of now, has nukes and an army at least 10 times as large as Russia has. Chinese military is much better equipped and better trained. Consequently, Russia is terrified of a Chinese invasion occupying the Russia East from The Pacific Ocean up to the Volga River

 

The bottom line: Zionist were very successful in initiating and benefiting from both the WWI and WWII. The WWIII will be their last!

Tue, 06/19/2012 - 13:56 | 2540045 reader2010
reader2010's picture

I don't know whether or not Chinese military is much better equipped and better trained. 

During 2008 Sichuan Earthquake, PLA mobilized 400 or so remaining Blackhawks purchased from the US in 80s to transport those injuried. The images are shocking because those chopper pilots are all in their late 40s and early 50s . So Chinese couldn't reverse engineer the flight training themselves.  Unfortuantely, one Backhawk crashed into mountains 150 miles or so outside of Chengdu, a large city with nearly 10 million population. The irony is PLA couldn't figure out the location of the crash site,  and subsequently mobilized 30,000 civilians for the search. A few weeks later they eventaully found the crash site and it was evident the crew died of dehydration and injuries. 

 

Tue, 06/19/2012 - 16:16 | 2540720 Disenchanted
Disenchanted's picture

 

Azannoth said:

after all Russia was ruled by Bolshevik(Zionists) very long and influence like that does not dissapear overnight

 

Here's an interesting quote...anybody here ever hear of a guy named Alexander Solzhenitsyn?

 

Plain and simple: Communism was thought up by Karl Marx, born Jewish, and it was implemented in Russia by Jews. They may not have been 100% of the Gulag or Cheka or in the military but they were the orchestrators of the Revolution. The Bolshevisks murdered priests, bishops (especially the village clergy) and exterminated the nobility and the Tsar and his family, according to Solzhenitsyn, and from 1918 to 1920, the secret police (Cheka) was controlled by Bolshevistic Jews.

 

that quote is from a review of his book(200 Years Together) and two other books...here:

 

Before, During and After the Russian Revolution

 

Tue, 06/19/2012 - 09:50 | 2539188 Abraxas
Abraxas's picture

Nostradamus probably used TA to come up with that conclusion.

Tue, 06/19/2012 - 10:01 | 2539229 LFMayor
LFMayor's picture

or used bath salts?

Tue, 06/19/2012 - 09:18 | 2539072 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

As uncreative as TPTB are, I half expect a new 'opium war'...

Tue, 06/19/2012 - 09:52 | 2539194 Azannoth
Azannoth's picture

Wasn't Vietnam and Afganistan exactly that ?

Tue, 06/19/2012 - 11:30 | 2539467 akak
akak's picture

I must say that I have little confidence in the intelligence and/or erudition of the author of this article after noticing, in the very top entry on his graph of world economic powers ---- "Non-Asian Ancient Civilizations" --- that he lists Greece, Egypt, Turkey and Persia (Iran) among them.  This person apparently has never looked at a globe or a world map even ONCE in his life, because the last two of those four lie squarely in the continent of Asia. 

Idiot!

Tue, 06/19/2012 - 12:58 | 2539931 potlatch
potlatch's picture

geography: know it, learn it, use it.

Tue, 06/19/2012 - 10:06 | 2539246 bahaar
bahaar's picture

We already have one.  It's called 'cheap goods from China".  And they didn't even have to use gun-boats to get us addicted and become impoverished.

Tue, 06/19/2012 - 10:45 | 2539399 Umh
Umh's picture

A toy in every "happy meal".

Tue, 06/19/2012 - 09:19 | 2539079 TriggerFinger
TriggerFinger's picture

impactful is not a word

Tue, 06/19/2012 - 09:24 | 2539093 GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

True.

"There are few missions which have had the same level of impact as this one:"

 

Tue, 06/19/2012 - 09:37 | 2539131 Bwahaha WAGFDSMB
Bwahaha WAGFDSMB's picture

It is now!

Tue, 06/19/2012 - 09:20 | 2539080 mrktwtch2
mrktwtch2's picture

the usa is the only country that can be totally self sustainable..if 300 million americans vanish tomorrow the world economy collapses..if 6.7 billion people diaapeared tomorrow the usa would survive it wouldnt be easy but we have our own oil,food and still have the manufacturing capablities and we are a consumer driven economy not an export one..china will implode in the less than 2  years (anyone here old enough to remember the japan miravle of the 80,s)..plus they are a totalitarian society..wasnt russia growing at 5% before they collapsed in 1990??

Tue, 06/19/2012 - 09:30 | 2539106 Mr. Fix
Mr. Fix's picture

USA polititions are not sustainable.

Tue, 06/19/2012 - 10:02 | 2539233 LFMayor
LFMayor's picture

right you are sir.   They just don't realize yet that the rednecks are waking up to this fact, too.

Tue, 06/19/2012 - 09:30 | 2539107 infotechsailor
infotechsailor's picture

"china will implode in the less than 2  years (anyone here old enough to remember the japan miravle of the 80,s"

 

only if they try to bailout failed banking and investment institutions. If their senior military/government officials let capital markets fail (which is possible since many of their banks are foreign owned), China's population would merely have to retool to produce products that Chinese people enjoy, instead of products that White people from America and Europe enjoy. What would China do with all their crap if America wasn't there to borrow their money and then buy it from them? Really?!?!?

Tue, 06/19/2012 - 10:00 | 2539225 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

Americans consume crap produced by China. Go to your local Walmart and take a gander at all the self-sustainable future producers waddling around.

Tue, 06/19/2012 - 10:27 | 2539335 Vince Clortho
Vince Clortho's picture

The US may be better off than some other countries, but 300 million people would NOT survive if the US were to suddenly go it alone.

Think large initial die-off with the survivors living  a lifestyle similar in many ways to the early 1900's.

There simply is not enough energy or raw materials left to continue anything close to the current standard of living.

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