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Intrade Now Pricing Greater Than 50% Chance Obama Will Not Be Reelected; And Observations On The Political Costs Of War
It appears that in the aftermath of the recent update of Obama's job approval polls which as we reported just hit an all time low, the market has formally priced in a 50%+ probability that the president will be limited to just one-term. According to the latest InTrade odds, Obama's chance of being reelected in 2012 is now at its all time low, or 48.5% after soaring to a high of 70% back in May in the aftermath of the Bin Laden death at sea. This result however is far from conclusive: InTrade 2012 presidential odds for Rick Perry have risen, but only to 18.5%, Palin is at 5.5%, and Ron Paul's chances are at 3.2% (Bachmann is at 2.5%). So there certainly is some arbitrage to be made there.
So with an Obama reelection no longer priced in by the market as a more than likely event, we wonder what is next up the administration's sleeve to pull itself by its bootstraps out of the current popularity slump: QE3 may or may not come, but by the time election 2012 rolls around, Bernanke will need to have launched QE4 and 5, in order to simply keep the market where it is. And, obviously, any short-term boost to Obama's popularity courtesy of exterminating most wanted terrorist #1 is now in the past, without any clear public enemies on the horizon. Which leaves the next fallback plan: declare war on a country that is on the receiving end of a media propaganda onslaught. Luckily, there are many of those. Furthermore, to refute those who claim war weariness will certainly set in well before the next election, keep in mind that as Benny Geys showed in "Wars, Presidents and Popularity: The Political Cost(s) of War Re-Examined", in times of major economic contraction, socially adverse effects from war spending are at their weakest. Who said again that no crisis should go to waste? Now that the lost economic game shifts to the geopolitical landscape as a final continuity recourse, below we present one of the better recent analyses on war weariness and political costs of warmongering, courtesy of Geys: a required read for anyone interested in the future of US foreign policy.
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As far as the ruling oilygarchs of wall street & the military industrial complex are concerned, it does not matter if Obama is elected or Paul is elected. The two party Repub-Demo smoke screen is only for the sheeple. Democracy is for the gullible.
Apple for president....they are people after all right?
The one last hope I have regards Mr. Obama as president is that he goes out Eisenhower style.
I was kinda hoping he'd go out Kennedy style.
Is that wrong?
Predator, incoming...
markar, yes it's wrong. no violence. tried for war crimes along with members of the bush adm.
If he goes out Kennedy style, he would be seen as a hero by many. Better he goes out Jimmy Carter style.
Not to sound too much like JW n FL, but I think we'll get a TPTB favorite, no matter which party. They own all these guys and gals, except possibly Ron Paul. Perry from TX seems to be getting some levitation here lately.
It is amazing Obama polls anything over about 30% favorable though. I thought Bush didn't have a clue, but this assclown makes him look like Einstein.
Yup, they're owned. It's how they got there in the 1st place. It's how they hope to remain there. There's lots of gravy to pass around
I don't blame Obama or Bush. I blame the entire pantheon of presidents since Woodrow Wilson.
Babylon is burning..... Smell the brimstone in the morning? Smells like.... VICTORY!
That said I got one name for anyone who thinks he is unelectable. REV. JEREMIAH WRIGHT. The fact he got elected after the Wright debacle proved to me that pink elephants can fly, and so can Obama. Check out his ears.....
Absofuckinglutely. "Honest, I sat there for years and didn't hear that preacha say nothin' against the US of A". Liberals cheered the lie and the liar.
Here's the latest from Gerald Celente:
http://www.geraldcelente.proboards.com/index.cgi?board=general
It's really good stuff.
Peace.
Ron Paul 3.2% I'll take that action.
You don't need Intrade to know which way the wind blows...
1> too early to tell with any accuracy
2>did they factor in the illegal-undocumented vote?
A little money makes all things better.
Money bomb total=$1,546,885.57
if obama is not elected lock ur doors
there will be riots.
war presidents have a perfect record of reelection but i think obabam will have to scale it up a bit to keep a comfortable margin. iran is the last country on the neocon list. september may be early( but could provide cover for the double dip) and march may be too late.
America, so far on record has attacked only countries which are defense less, poor, no weapons, no army, no nukes.
The Second American Revolution
THE USA has 42 million American's on food stamps. The families that were encouraged by Greenspan and Bush and then Bernanke and Obama to Borrow for a bright Tomorrow have been betrayed by the avarice of bankers. The loan officers and mortagage advisers all knew these people could not afford these loans, but wanted the commission.
Unless politicians start doing something radical to make the make the avaricious face of American capitalism fairer to those less fortunate, America could descend into the Second Revolution..
We have seen the people rise up in Egypt, Libya, Bajrain, Saudi Arabia and Syria. Violent anti-establishment disorder in Greece, Italy and the UK.
What if riots started happening right across America as seething resentment of a government, central bank and corporate elite enriching themselves and enslaving the people, this time in debt, not shackles.
Unfortunately,there is little the US government can do in any meaningful way to help these people as they have spent all the money trying to maintain a system that is clearly flawed and have no ammunition left.
Someone better start doing something fast to damp this powder keg as it seems to me that the fuse is already lit.
The Second American Revolution
Riots happen when there is a financier behind. Who will finance riots in this country?
P.S. Dollar was behind above mentioned cases.
so we'll trade one puppet for another? big whup.
After reading for more than 2yrs this is my first post...feel free to junk the piss out of me.
So based on the information here at ZH, I dumped my IRA a year ago, spent all the money on a BOL (cash) weapons, food and PM's (and covered the tax & penalties). I shit you not, my whole retirement except a crappy $48k 401k. I think the wheels will fall off in the next 6 months and the next election isn't going to matter...but thats just me. If I'm wrong I have no retirement and at 50 with no job, not much chance of building a new retirement. If I'm right...well I can eat popcorn and watch the show from the BOL.
Doesn't matter who's at the top, Ron Paul? I love the man, but if he ever got elected it would first be a miracle and then an assination. No upsetting the apple cart for the PTB.
BOL?
Bug Out Location...in my case a 1200 sq ft house on 5 acres in the forest
Ditto
Can you do pair trades on Intrade ?
...chances of Hussein being the last President are at 100% currently.
Can you elaborate, please? What do you mean by "Last President"? No more stars and stripes?
It doesn't matter at this point. Short of Divine intervention the ship is over the falls and it's "lookout below". This ponzi charade has so much momentum that even under perfect conditions I think the odds are less than 50-50 that the US, and probably the rest of the world, is headed for some real significant change.
Retrospectively, I find myself agreeing with Jesse Ventura on matters of politics. That alone signals the Apolalypse.
Obama will be re elected.
There is no better representative for the elites; the people who own society.
Obama can still verbally dazzle a great number of people who vote democrat. Obama can then
DO all things republican.
He is the best preserver of the status quo.
events for the week. EU area to be dominated by economic releases while US to wait for FED speech. Wonder why all these speeches on a frida?
http://capital3x.com/?p=109
If you're going to shill for a website, try not to link to texts behind paywalls.
For common stuff (e.g. FT etc, which can be neutralised via google linking anyhow) then maybe - otherwise you're linkbaiting, and linkbaiting in a rude way.
check out http://www.ronpaul2012.com/
money is growing by the SECOND
who the F is intrade anyways?
overstock sues the squid under RICO:
http://www.overstock.com/50257/static.html
We firmly believe the conduct of Goldman Sachs and Merrill Lynch were "racketeering" and "corrupt." We are moving forward: trial is scheduled to commence this year, on December 5, 2011. At trial we will hold Goldman Sachs and Merrill Lynch accountable and expose a slew of illegal Wall Street practices to the public...
Hell yeah!
We'll see. Don't forget lawsuits are brought by Lawyers. 'Nuf said.
the lawsuit:
http://www.overstock.com/downloads/pdf/20100518_ostkvsgold_06.pdf
URGENT! URGENT! CALLING TYLER D :
Have you guys seen this :
FIGHT: Nouriel Roubini Has 4 Questions For ZeroHedge Joe Weisenthal|Aug. 17, 2011, 10:10 AM|http://static5.businessinsider.com/assets/images/icons/icons.png); background-attachment: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; background-color: initial; color: #f3502a; background-position: -200px 0px; background-repeat: no-repeat no-repeat;" title="views">7,053|49Since there's nothing going on today, we'll just bring you this little tweetfight.
Dr. Doom has four questions for the hyperinflationary doomsayers over at ZeroHedge.
The gist of all of them is: How can you not buy the deflation argument given history, low bond yields, Japan, etc.?
Image:www.twitter.com
The counter-argument:
Image: www.twitter.com
Please followMoney GameonTwitterandFacebook.
Follow Joe Weisenthal onTwitter.
Ask Joe A Question >
Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/nouriel-roubini-has-questions-for-zerohedge-on-inflation-2011-8#ixzz1VfthoEZI
I think Tyler's argument has always been that there is NO possibility of Bernanke leaving the banksters to eat their losses . . . which means PRINT until the lights go out.
YEP,
BUT BEYOND THAT, THIS HAS THE MAKINGS OF A HEAVYWEIGHT CHAMPIONSHIP FIGHT. KUDOS TO TD!
BIG LEAGUE, AS WE ALL KNOW HERE, BUT NOW THE GENERAL PUBLIC WILL LEARN.
Give me those austrian blues baby cause this Kenyasian's or is it Keynesian economics is gettin to be a pain in my oba-marx.
elections are as real as US markets
Lots of people want to break the status quo. But there's disagreement what direction that will take
General David Howell Petraeus.
You're welcome
Never even saw that coming, but its possible.
Is it just me? It seems every week Fareed Zakaria has to complain about the "system" in Washington as being broken. In my opinion the system is not broken. The system of constitutional government is not broken. In fact this is the way it is supposed to work. The situation right now is that we have divided government. Until consensus is reached we will have to muddle through it. I get the suspicion that the "system" Fareed would have us follow would look radically different from constitutional government. I wonder what purpose this guy serves and why CNN suddenly promotes him the way they do.
It's just you. And naive youngsters, or those who are benefitting mightily by the current 'system'. And I don't think anyone benefitting heavily from this system is posting to this board.
Constitutional government is "Supposed" to work this way?
How is it that 42,000 lobbyists, unelected by the people, get to write our laws?? In what Constitution do you see that? How is it that a Secretary of the Treasury, Hank Paulson, jackhammers a trillion dollars out of the american people or has the FED print it to give to his employer, Goldamn Sucks, Societe Generale, China, and others under the guise of saving the ameirican economy but not cent of it has reached the people?
It's just you.
You are missing my point entirely. What better system do you or Fareed propose? By the way I agree with problems you point out. New laws can be proposed that can eliminate the lobbying system and yes there is always a chance they will not be perfect.
Printing money by the Fed and giving it directly to the people is a better alternative? No, it is wrong as well. Bankruptcy is a necessary cleansing part of capitalism and the Hank Pauslon's of the world need to be made aware of this and soon will. Also, I do not excuse the vast number of individuals either that took out loans for housing they could not afford. Everyone has a little bit to learn from this mess.
Debasing the dollar in any fashion is wrong and this is primarily why we are still not recovering. The system is fixable and still far and away the best system of governing. In my opinion the constitution just needs to be followed as well as free market capitalism. If we are trading with China and are being charged an import tariff of 25% therein lies the problem. Having a trading partner like this is foolish and needs to stop.
With a new presidency and congress who will work with him a lot of what ails us can change very quickly.
He was talking about British Parliament style system.
After all that's where he spews forth economically.
Which of course is classic anti-american thought.
We are not to be a monetary system. Not Keynesian. Not Austrian. Not Frankfurtian, etc, etc.
Don't gimme those Austrian Blues, or stay on with Alicia Keynesian...I'd rather change the station away from monetarism altogether.
We were once the 3rd world country being exploited by monetarism...and now...well hell we're pretty much back to that now.
Glass-Steagall
Congress doesn't decide spending.
The President decides wars.
Where's the accountability when the American people vote for hundreds of people that aren't in charge of jack shit?
Our system isn't working because it's been hijacked.
The answer isn't 'Hey Kids look, Big Ben, Parliament.'
Free trade isn't the answer...and no I realize we don't even have that. We have rigged trade. But instead of asking China to lower their tariffs, it's better to RAISE ours....beyond that guess what, it's also something WE have control over. It's also what our founding fathers DID, and all other presidents until dipshit Reagan got into office.
If they didn't, no amount of deregulation would have built the railroads, the steel mills, the b-52's, the convertibles, etc, etc.
We need both lots more regulation, and lots less. We need higher taxes, and lower taxes (but not to pay off the fraudulent debt). We need to pay off some debt, cancel the fraudulent debt. We need to stop wasting money, but spend a lot more on targeted beneficial things.
We've gotten so much dogma running around in our heads we forget to ask simple questions. Like....does this action provide a tangible benefit to America? All we have are schemesters who try to 'engineer' a buck or two from bullshit, speculation, or luck. How about shaping our destiny by actually doing the things we need to do? Mag-lev, fusion, space, NAWAPA, etc, etc.
The wellsprings of thought in this country have been so thoroughly poisoned, few can cut through the bullshit long enough to really understand what we need to do. Because sure some people can point out dogma of the other side, and then they go right back into following some other dogma.
In life, human beings need to DO STUFF. Our minds are capable of figuring out what we need to do. We just need to for once listen to it, instead of some bought and paid for theology of various monetary economic schools of non-thought. Money, by it's nature, is worthless. They are just units of account. But now we believe that money is worth something, and because of this, we can debase how it accounts. Even if it's inherently worthless, you still can debase what it accounts for. They are TWO separate things. People need to quit lumping them together.
Glass-Steagall
American Credit System (not....enter in bogus name of...like Keynesian, Austrian, Frankfurt, etc) Monetary System.
Hope ZH is back to posting soon :)
That's just what we need, a one party state. America Über Alles!
If the American people reelect this liar they will have said no more to America and I don't believe that is what they want. Holder, Naplatano, Obama, Pelosi, Reid, Franks and Schumer are a must go.
It doesn't matter who gets elected in 2012. Bankers will destory America in the next presidential term.
Whoever gets elected will see America collapse on their watch, and there's nothing they can do about it.
Don't mean to interrupt this thread, but I don't think I can post this.
Can of Beans
Imagine yourself in a scenario where society has broken down. There are no grocery stores, there is no Wal-Mart, there is no gasoline. Your family will starve to death tomorrow if you can't feed them. They will die.
Your neighbor is in the same situation.
A can of beans appears on your driveway. This can will keep your family alive for a week. You cannot share this can with your neighbors. You and your neighbor both want this can of beans.
What do you do?
Hypotheticals are ZZZzz. This isn't even a particularly ethical or well formed one [being a hidden prisoners dilemma, as in the neighbour faces the same issue, relies on not being able to preclude sharing - otherwise you're forcing your preselected result. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Game_theory ].
Playing by your badly formatted and silly rules ("we cannot share" - why? My mum told me I couldn't?), the optimal survival strategy is:
Obviously, I'd give him the can of beans, gain his trust, then eat him & his kids once they'd turned their backs on me to hunker down to open the tin. If we're in the USA, I've a 45% chance that they're overweight and so I might be able to store a spare couple in the basement for a couple of months without them starving either... avoids refrigeration issues (although hanging for 28 days is probably sensible as well).
What? That was the answer you were angling for... only you expected violence & getting the beans as a reward. That's why if TSHTF, I will be the one with the full stomach, and you'll be the one confused when he ends up in the pot. If you didn't think about eating them, you're a hypocrite and stupid to boot.
[Trans: if you format games to favour sociopathic/psychopathic players then don't cheat & expect the winners to not be sociopaths / psychopaths. That's kinda the lesson of this crisis, buddy.]
share the beans with my neighbor, and then pair up and rob the other neighbors freezer (because he has steaks)
I'm with Use of Weapons' except you gotta pimp the neighbors wife out too.
Wow - testicles. That's really amazing!
Best way to survive in such situations is to team up with your neighbors. Unity is the strength. We are in this situation because we were divided. TPTB played a centuries old tactic.
Of course - but the rules he outlined precluded that option.
Thus my snark
hide the beans and eat the neighbors
Big difference here is that the Obama machine has enough states nailed down to lock in at least 238 electoral college votes, and a number of big states, such as Florida and Ohio, that are in play and are target rich environments for organisations like ACORN who will be wippping up new voters and votes for Obama in those places. No matter how bad thiings get, you cannot count Obama out. I would not be surprised to see him still in the White House in 2018 (yes, I know what I am saying).
I disagree. Obama isn't that important, anyone wil do. Vote counting as technical analysis only goes so far. People are unemployed and pissed. Unless there are major shenanigens (certainly possible), Obama's team has already lost. Remember: who wins the Super Bowl every year? The NFL.
FED goes to Europe. Europeans prepare to get on knees.
Sarkozy, Merkel Propose a Euro-Zone Chief
by Nathalie Boschat, Bernd Radowitz and Gabriele Parussini - Wall Street Journal
Some economists say the time has come to recast the architecture of the euro zone and accelerate the pace toward deeper fiscal integration by creating a single entity that can issue debt on a euro-zone level and keep a tight leash on national finances. The entity would mirror the ECB in a similar fashion to the Federal Reserve's relationship with the U.S. Treasury.
if the eurozone does not do this they are doomed now. if they do do this they are doomed but not for a few more years while they have a money printing party and germany and france effectively take over europe
Germany takes over Europe.
FTFY
Japan will take over.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sh1RwXrtHV4
the outcome might be worse than a one term President, suggest a brokered election, in which no one has enough electoral votes, and the election is sent to the House of Reps.
even marginal candidates can maintain the media attention necessary to at least win their own state, and to stay in the race without spending too much money
as they said in 2000, if only that 1% which pulled the lever for Nader had voted for Gore we wouldn't have had Bush. (truth being that if those lazy democrats in FLA had gotten off their ass and gone to the polls we wouldn't have had him - and do you think Obama is going to get a good turnout from his party?
remember history rhymes
so every candidate becomes President of their own state. you had to figure it was coming to this, as central governments all over the world find it hard to maintain control. the world is decentralizing. 2012 is act one.
The next President will be a Bush clones..they will see to it. Terrorist attack IMMENENT before NOV 12. The elite want their war mongering, U.S. Banrupting Leader at the helm. The ships going down boys. IF Ron Paul was ellected and not killed or cheated out of the office, it would be one of the best things that happened to this country in a century. However I'm not holding out hope for that, it's a fools errand.
Help is on the way:
http://daviddegraw.org/2011/08/plutocracy-20-richest-members-of-congress/
I think this list shows how much they made legally. Where are their undeclared assists? nancy polusi is a m*bster.
And I doubt Rockefeller is sitting on a measly $82MM. Hidden assets for sure.
That's personal in his checking account.
Corporate wealth isn't listed, especially for people who own companies with multi-billion $$ revenues / annum. Heck, there's four more categories of wealth that are excluded as well.
I'm going to junk you for naviety!
It does not matter, obams stay or go. The game will go on.
Ralph Raico on Skidelsky
Posted by David Gordon on August 20, 2011 07:05 PM
“Ralph Raico, our leading historian of classical liberalism, has neatly skewered Robert Skidelsky, Keynes's biographer and apologist. Nowhere in his massive three-volume biography, Raico points out, does Skidelsky mention Keynes's radio address in praise of the notorious defense of Stalinist tyranny, Soviet Communism: A New Civilization, by Sidney and Beatrice Webb. With characteristic forthrightness, Raico calls Skidelsky a liar for this omission. His comments may be found on Robert Wenzel's excellent blog, Economic Policy Journal.”
http://www.lewrockwell.com/blog/lewrw/archives/93434.html
_______________________
The Case for Robert Skidelsky as a Liar | Economic Policy Journal | 08.20.11
As a follow up to my post, An Over the Top Attack on Hayek, the great historian of classical liberalism, Professor Ralph Raico emails:
In 1936 the Fabian socialist couple, Sidney and Beatrice Webb, published Soviet Communism: A New Civilization. Since that time it has been seen as probably the most egregious example of pro-Communist propaganda by fellow-traveler enthusiasts for Stalin’s terror state.
Keynes reviewed the book in a radio address. The Webbs were very pleased, Beatrice noting how their friend had “boosted” their book.
Keynes stated:
…the new system is now sufficiently crystallised to be reviewed. The result is impressive. The Russian innovators have passed, not only from the revolutionary stage, but also from the doctrinaire stage….They are engaged in the vast administrative task of making a completely new set of social and economic institutions work smoothly and successfully over a territory so extensive that it covers one sixth of the land surface of the world….Methods are still changing rapidly in response to experience. The largest scale empiricism and experimentalism which has ever been attempted by disinterested administrators is in operation. Meanwhile, the Webbs have enabled us to see the direction in which things appear to be moving and how far they have got.
Robert Skidelsky, in his immense, three-volume biography of Keynes, did not find the space to mention this address. Some may consider him to be “disingenuous” for this. I consider him to be a liar...
http://www.economicpolicyjournal.com/2011/08/case-for-robert-skidelsky-as-liar.html
____________________________
G. Edward Griffin, in The Creature from Jekyll Island, also points out that the three most prominent leaders in the early days of the Fabian Society – “a semi-secret society for the purpose of bringing socialism to the world – were the Webbs and George Bernard Shaw.
The theoreticians who drafted the plans for the IMF/World Bank in 1944 that would follow exactly the pattern of the Fed – “to allow American banks to create money out of nothing, without paying the penalty of having their currency devalued” – were the well-known Fabian Socialist from England, John Maynard Keynes, and America’s Assistant Secretary of the Treasury, Harry Dexter White. ( "The IMF/World Bank was the establishment of a world central bank that would create a common fiat money for all nations and then require them to inflate together at the same rate.") Said Griffin: "White was simultaneously a member of the CFR and a member of a Communist espionage ring in Washington while he served as Assistant Secretary of the Treasury…”
Virginia Frank Coe, a member of the same espionage ring, and the technical secretary of the Bretton Woods (NH) International Monetary Conference that birthed the IMF, later became the first Secretary of the IMF; White served as the first Executive Director for the U.S. at the IMF.
The London School of Economics and Political Science (informally the London School of Economics or LSE) was founded in 1895 by Fabian Socialists – the Webbs and George Bernard Shaw. (see falak pema)
Silver almost $44.00
It's all about unemployment. There's no inflation equivalent to what happened under Carter. A possible substitute is the household debt burden. With those two numbers, it's unlikely that Obama will be re-elected, nor does he deserve to be.
There would have to be a major growth and employment turnaround between now and next summer for Obama to be viable next November. Part of what happened in the debt ceiling deal was the Democratic Senate trying to make sure that they don't lose the Senate when Obama loses next year.
doesn't matter, two heads on the same dragon, there is still a great deal of wealth to be extracted, it won't be over until the PTB say its over.
Has zerohedge been shut down, no updates or articles since Friday....
Blocked by JPM and the SEC.
Apparently Obama's daughters were playing in the oval office and one accidentally pushed the "Internet On/Off" button. The one located next to the "Launch All Missiles" button. Nothing to worry about.
I think this is the first Ive seen Zero not updated.
Looks like WE are ZH right now.
Capital3x continues to short the AUD expecting further downside in equity markets
Bears are waiting
http://t.co/ezD8890
New servers? with all this new money from whom? day off? oh well, its been real fun...
What the hell happened to ZH? Bitchezz?
LOL. The average American is such a donkey. The donkey does anything the machine wants it too. They want Obama, it's Obama, they want Perry it's Perry.
I can tell you this. Ron Paul would be dead and buried before the next President gets nominated.
Name the last sitting president not to win a second election ? ok thats easy. Now name the 2nd last guy to do so ?
I think this has more to do with a rather pathetic cast of also rans making up most of the GOP roster than anything Obama brings or doesn't bring to the table.
Perry is a secessionist who most likely doesn't believe in dinosaurs and believes he can pray the debt away.
Bachmann probably believes the world is flat if her handlers tell her so
Newt is the bastardly cheating lying kind of guy who leaves his wife while she is sick in the hopital. That plus he fired his supporting network.
the mormon twins sound good but will americans vote for them ?
Paul needs a serious upgrade in his domestic policy position. No doubt his finance and foeign policy will help the USA, but his domestic policy is lagging big time. No, cutting every program does not qualify as domestic policy planning. If he picks the right running mate it could get interesting...
this is the best the GOP can do ?
I weep for our country's next 4 years
never mind that the 99 year charter on the FED expires in December 2012
Where are you tyler? When will you be posting again?
Anybody Home?
What happened? TPTB came and rounded up the ZH crew and left everything on? Guess a few hundred people will have to find something else to do all day.
ok either tyler is on vacation or he got the famous knock on the door....
:(