Is Isaac The 'New' Katrina?

Tyler Durden's picture

Tropical Storm Isaac has battered the hopes of an on-time departure of the Romney-Ryan express and now looks set to threaten New Orleans and the Gulf. Weather trackers are predicting an increase in intensity given its size and the storm's predicted paths are set to cross straight through the middle of the Gulf's oil production in a replay of the terrible August of Katrina (though we can only hope not as severe). All major rig operators are evacuating which leaves output notably down already. (via Bloomberg)

  • *U.S. SAYS 24%  OF OIL OUTPUT SHUT FOR TROPICAL STORM ISAAC
  • *U.S. SAYS 8.2% OF NATURAL GAS OUTPUT SHUT FOR ISAAC
  • *U.S. SAYS 39 PLATFORMS EVACUATED FOR TROPICAL STORM ISAAC
  • *U.S. SAYS 8 RIGS EVACUATED FOR TROPICAL STORM ISAAC

and as a reminder - the average US retail gas price rose 75c during Katrina...

Isaac's predicted path (via WeatherBell models)...

 

goes straight through the oilfields... (source: Forbes)

and the impact of Katrina is very clear - a 75c rise in average US retail gasoline prices from Aug 2nd to September 5th...

 

The green-dotted line is the 'average' price change through the year for the average US retail price of gasoline - it would appear the rise this year (blue) is right on target at the moment - but a Katrina-esque spike will be the final 'transitory' nail in the coffin of this curmudgeonly stagnation.

 

Chart: Bloomberg

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CompassionateFascist's picture

Near Brawley? Holy Shit! That's where the Moiola Brothers hang out. The boyz Ann Barnhardt ripped for a half-mil or so. Maybe they're still angry: @ http://www.nfa.futures.org/basicnet/Arbitration.aspx?entityid=0282801&case=09ARB00009.

machineh's picture

Forecasting a tropical storm (60 mph) to morph into a Cat. 5 horror like Katrina (200 mph) is like expecting a 1 percent dip in the S&P to become the Crash of 1987 (minus 18%) by the end of the day.

Fat tails aren't that fat. Joe Bastardi is going to trash his professional reputation writing sh*t like the Forbes article linked at Drudge.

Welcome to the 'storm of the century' ... wanna buy some cheap puts? Okay, how about some cheap putas?

Squid Vicious's picture

if NHC has it as a Cat 2 at landfall, will likely be a minimal Cat 1...right now i'm sure they're laughing their asses off in the keys at the attempt at drama on the boob tube...

Cast Iron Skillet's picture

So ... umm ... was Katrina a cat 5 right out of the starting blocks? ... must have been quite a surprise for any poor assholes unlucky enough to be near it when it suddenly started up ...

Dr. Engali's picture

Katrina had been downgraded prior to hitting landfall. It wasn't until afterwards that we knew just how bad it had become.

Debt-Is-Not-Money's picture

New Orleans SURVIVED Katrina, what it did NOT survive was the Army Corp of Engineers decades long piss-poor design strategies namely using outfall drainage canals to Lake Pontchartrain with no means to prevent high lake water levels from backflowing. Also the sheet piling for the levees on these outfall canals while 40'-50' at I-10 several miles from the lake (I saw these being driven) were only 10' long at the lake end!

I'm from the gov'mint an' I'm heah to hep you!

Fuck these incompetent assholes!

max2205's picture

This shits on drudge. Ohvye

HD's picture

I wonder - in the aftermath of Isaac's devastation if George Bush will congratulate Obama on his hard work,  "Brownie, you're doing a heck of a job".

toady's picture

Barrack Obama hates black people.

HD's picture

That's only half true.

chistletoe's picture

Tyler,

 

I done tole you dis las week ....

 

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/hurricane-issac-expected-pass-right-above-...

 

 

I gets no respect.  none at alll.....

bob_dabolina's picture

Bush's fault.

Bush is raycess.

toady's picture

I was thinking the same thing a couple days ago when they were talking about it hitting Tampa ...

I guess I should have said something. Now I just sound like I'm jumping on the bandwagon.

TomGa's picture

The Port Fourchon oil facility and the Loop pipeline / oil terminal to the southwest of New Orleans are the most critical infrastructure areas. Hopefully this storm stays east.

 

It's notable that Katrina came ashore at 8am on August 29, 2005.  Isaac will hit exactly 7 years to the day (and hour) later based on current track.

 

 

Catullus's picture

Wednesday is the 7 year anniversary of Katrina. Wow.

It doesn't matter if it hits New Orleans or not. Someone along the coast is going to get slammed. Good luck. And don't wait around for the government to help you, because they won't.

Debt-Is-Not-Money's picture

"And don't wait around for the government to help you, because they won't."

NO SHIT!
ar01's picture

US gasoline refinery capacity is already diminished: http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/daily-ticker/gas-prices-continue-rise-unt...

Time to get the UGA calls in.

bob_dabolina's picture

And soon some of the idiots who fell into the "solar panels save you money" bullshit are gona' see how much it's gona' cost to replace them after this storm.

LetThemEatRand's picture

So now you're against people trying to make their own energy and get off the government grid?  Statist.

bob_dabolina's picture

I am for people making their own decisions whether or not the chief of sales for this particular method of energy is the government itself (and amongst the heaviest subsidized) pitching a method that is more than likely not in their main financial interest.

akak's picture

Why do you care?

He didn't build that solar panel --- somebody else did that.

Everybodys All American's picture

I would be ok with being able to make my own energy. I'm just not so sure the nut job next door should be able to create a potential environmental or worse hazard. I'd love to be able to trust my neighbors to do the right thing with making their energy as long as it was safe. Certain things are probably better left with a state and I hate saying that.

CrockettAlmanac.com's picture

One does not need a state to provide security and adjudication. If anything the security and adjudicative services provided by the state are sub-par just like the DMV or the county assessor's office.

Dr. Engali's picture

The second time we are in agreement. ;->

Stuck on Zero's picture

And the good news is that the storm track will take it into the Midwest to alleviate the drought!

 

Squid Vicious's picture

umm...no... will dissipate over the delta region... or move NE nothing to push it that far north

adr's picture

More like Isaac will hit the midwest and flood what is left of the crop destroying everything. Actually that would be great because thousands of Wall Street speculators would be holding billions in contracts that couldn't be filled.

My uncle's corn harvest turned out great.

ThisIsBob's picture

He didn't grow that corn.

surf0766's picture

Oh look it's gonna hit Tampa. Um sorry we meant New Orleans.   See how well we can predict the weather. Trust us we know global warming.

Dr. Engali's picture

Attention all sheep. Please proceed to the Sun Life Stadium and wait for further instructions.

akak's picture

The sheep didn't build that catastrophe --- somebody else did that.

Monedas's picture

You can't have it both ways .... extreme drought or record hurricane season .... probably can't have both at the same time ?   Sorry, I'm not a climate expert .... just a Yankee common sense butt kicker !       Crude up Monday for Chavez' problemon de refineria AND Isaac "Good Jew Boy Name" hurricane in the cane fields ?

Jack Burton's picture

Latest models in show New Orleans at the least a possible target. As for the strength at land fall, that seems to be very much up in the air. Lots of different forces working on the storm at present. Just about anything can happen, a large tropical storm hitting, or a quite large dangerous Cat 3 Hurricane plowing into New Orleans. Nobody can predict at present what will become of this storm, but the potential is there for a big disaster. On the other hand it could meet unfavorable inputs and fizzle.

If I were in that part of the Gulf Coast, I would wait one more day for more news, and have everything packed and the car gased, if the news is bad I would bug out pronto!

orangegeek's picture

If the economy is stalled/sliding, then supply isn't much of an issue.

 

Some good bullish news for oil/natgas - which usually happens at a top.

q99x2's picture

Pack up the guns, women and children. Holy hell FEMA is about to descend.

surf0766's picture

Kayne doesn't like hurricanes