LTRO 2 102: Projected LTRO Take Up By Bank

Tyler Durden's picture

Earlier today, we presented a Top-Down analysis via SocGen of Wednesday's ECB massive extended Discount Window operation, also known as the second 3 Year LTRO operation (whereby we once again remember that unlike the Fed, the ECB is fully unaware of the adverse consequences of the stigma associated with borrowing last ditch liquidity, but when all else has failed, one has to do what one has to do). And while we will conclude our LTRO preview series with LTRO 2 103: Bottoms-Up, as a courtesy fo those who are fine-tuning their LTRO stigma trade (long banks that will not participate in the upcoming LTRO, short banks that will) SocGen's prediction of which banks will take down LTRO 2 funding, and how much. Draghi said there is no stigma trade. We proved him wrong, at least in the interim. LTRO 2 will finally decide who is right and who is wrong.

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marketblip's picture

If it's free money then banks would be stupid not to take it

css1971's picture

If it's free money why can't I have a billion or two?

noses's picture

Ask Commerzbank. It's free until you suddenly feel ECB's cold tentacles violating your tender orifices and you become a zombie of some government.

satan2liberals's picture

Well that's assuming the ecb isn't  ass raping my short positions in the first place so yeah

I'd borrow a few thousand billion.

JohnG's picture

They park it back at the ECB for a -0.75% carry dumbass.  Read more before you make an idiot of yourself.

TheGoodDoctor's picture

Isn't this money coming from the currency swaps with the Fed? Is that what the deal was last week when someone suggested the US has to step up now? I forgot who said that, was it Draghi?

Chimerican's picture

Does anyone know where I can borrow @0 for three years with my Greek bonds as collateral?

TrustWho's picture

From Draghi: "You are not my family nor a friend, so FU."

Rogier's picture

Deutsche taking a minimum of 5bn in LTRO 2 after Ackerman's statement regarding LTRO 1? Now, that would be special...

walküre's picture

And guess what?

All that money is going to do sweet fuck all for the European economy.

There's no growth, no success. It's just stuffing holes and pretend the boat will stop leaking.

Even the bankers aren't that stupid. So, what are they really planning for?

A massive flood of withdrawals is my uneducated guess.

TrustWho's picture

Amazing, not too long ago if a bank borrowed money from the central bank, this was not considered a good sign for the bank's future or the economy's future. My, my, my....I am such an old fart! 

slewie the pi-rat's picture

i think tyler has got it on the low end

i interpret nowotny's "press release" as a carney's call to get this fuker outa the 100-300 B EUR range

but, between the redemptions, non-covered redemptions, the carry trade, and the "stigma" of borrowing money at a discount window...

...i think i'm turning japanese!

jm's picture

Judging from who is taking carry, it looks like double-down time. 

belsebub's picture

Sorry, but this matrix is inaccurate. Swedish banks (Nordea, Swedbank, SEB and Handelsbanken) did not take anything in the first LTRO.