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Moody's Announces That France's Debt Metrics Have Deteriorated And Are Now The Weakest Of All Aaa-Rated Peers

Tyler Durden's picture




 

This is not what Europe needed, 6 days ahead of the G20 ultimatum's expiration for Europe to somehow fix itself, and hours after Deutsche Bank said the rating agencies may go ahead and put France on downgrade review. Just out "Moody's notes that the government's financial strength has weakened, as it has for other euro area sovereigns, because the global financial and economic crisis has led to a deterioration in French government debt metrics -- which are now among the weakest of France's Aaa peers." As for the timing... "Over the next three months, Moody's will monitor and assess the stable outlook in terms of the government's progress in implementing these measures, while taking into account any potential adverse economic or financial market developments."

Full note:

Moody's issues annual credit report on France
 
Frankfurt am Main, October 17, 2011 -- In its annual credit report on France, Moody's Investors Service says that the country's Aaa rating with a stable outlook reflects the French economy's strength, the robustness of its institutions and very high government financial strength.
 
The rating agency's report is an update to the markets and does not constitute a rating action.
 
France's sustainable GDP growth has been supported by the economy's large size, high productivity, broad diversification and its track record for innovation, together with high private sector savings and an only moderate built-up of household and corporate liabilities. In Moody's opinion, these features provide ample capacity to absorb shocks -- as demonstrated by the resilience of domestic demand during the global crisis -- although some risk factors (such as the weak prospects for global growth) continue to constrain medium-term economic performance.
 
However, Moody's notes that the government's financial strength has weakened, as it has for other euro area sovereigns, because the global financial and economic crisis has led to a deterioration in French government debt metrics -- which are now among the weakest of France's Aaa peers. Moody's nevertheless continues to deem France's financial strength to be very high, particularly when compared with debt affordability (interest burden in relation to government revenues) which remains comfortable. But very high debt finance-ability in an uncertain financial and economic environment, which is a crucial feature of Aaa governments, rests on investors' confidence in the government's ability and in its willingness to tackle unforeseen challenges. France may face a number of challenges in the coming months -- for example, the possible need to provide additional support to other European sovereigns or to its own banking system, which could give rise to significant new (contingent) liabilities for the government's balance sheet.
 
The deterioration in debt metrics and the potential for further contingent liabilities to emerge are exerting pressure on the stable outlook of the government's Aaa debt rating. Moody's notes that the French government now has less room for manoeuvre in terms if stretching its balance sheet than it had in 2008. France's continued commitment to implementing the necessary economic and fiscal reform measures as well as visible progress in achieving the targeted sustainability improvements will be important for the stable outlook to be maintained. Over the next three months, Moody's will monitor and assess the stable outlook in terms of the government's progress in implementing these measures, while taking into account any potential adverse economic or financial market developments.

 

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Mon, 10/17/2011 - 17:37 | 1783082 d00daa
d00daa's picture

BEAR MARKET BITCHEZ

Mon, 10/17/2011 - 17:44 | 1783114 Cassandra Syndrome
Cassandra Syndrome's picture

We fart in your general direction bitchez!

Mon, 10/17/2011 - 17:51 | 1783134 LongBalls
LongBalls's picture

I hear circus music!

Mon, 10/17/2011 - 17:55 | 1783148 SGS
SGS's picture

No shit parle vous? Almost as stupid as making two bears saying that silver is in a free market.

www.silvergoldsilver.com

Mon, 10/17/2011 - 18:28 | 1783270 Hard1
Hard1's picture

France is also the only AAA country with a BB credit spread.  Where should france spread be on the following table: 

FRANCE 5 yr 184   Aaa/AAA

Indonesia 5 yr  203   Ba1/BB+

Peru 5 yr   161, Colombia 161  Baa3/BBB

Mexico 5 yr  154  Baa1/BBB

Chile  5yr  125  AA-

 

Excusez mois chiennes  (sorry bitchez!)

 

 

Mon, 10/17/2011 - 23:53 | 1784096 markmotive
markmotive's picture

I smell another bailout.

And yet again, it is the middle class taxpayer and saver that is left holding the bag. Folks, this is eventually going to lead to WWIII if this continues.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/299891-the-eu-rescue-bid-what-does-it-me...

Tue, 10/18/2011 - 00:35 | 1784158 tiger7905
tiger7905's picture

Don Coxe Update - he did a report for the upcoming G20 meeting.

 

http://goldandsilverlinings.com/?p=1695

 

 

Mon, 10/17/2011 - 17:58 | 1783162 sagerxx
sagerxx's picture

I see dead banks.

Mon, 10/17/2011 - 18:25 | 1783259 Max Hunter
Max Hunter's picture

nahh... EUR/USD should be at 1.40 by the end of the week..

Mon, 10/17/2011 - 18:04 | 1783166 Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

I hear Moody's repeating verbatim Reggie Middletons research ...'only' a year behind his more explicit and detailed warnings but remarkably for a CRA, weeks ahead of the carnage!

Maybe there was a major fuk-up in Moody's PR Dept and they pre-released their dull downgrade before the pre-selected time of their usual behind the curve (collapse) and absolutely worthless announcements?

CRA : Crap Rated 'A'

Mon, 10/17/2011 - 18:28 | 1783272 Piranhanoia
Piranhanoia's picture

I smell flowers!

Mon, 10/17/2011 - 20:19 | 1783621 macholatte
macholatte's picture

6 days ahead of the G20 ultimatum's expiration

 

What ultimatum?

What they said was "get it done before the next meeting". There were no consequences if they didn't.

Or did I miss something?

 

Mon, 10/17/2011 - 20:50 | 1783689 covert
covert's picture

old news, this has been known for a VERY long time now. europe has been deeply impoverished for a long time now.

http://expose2.wordpress.com

 

Mon, 10/17/2011 - 17:40 | 1783086 Ruffcut
Ruffcut's picture

THe ratings agencies need to change to ASS instead of AAa ect.

THen ASS negative turns better than ASS positive.

That has been my highest rating for all the banks for years now.

I deem it to be quite special for countries to now be cla assified in the ASS system.

Mon, 10/17/2011 - 17:56 | 1783140 tekhneek
tekhneek's picture

You sir, you there, you are ahead of your time.

That is all.

I can just see Samuel L. Now: "I'm tired of these muthafuckin' rating agencies, downgradin' mah muthafuckin credit rating!"

Or maybe even get some Kanye in here: "France, I'm happy for you, and I'mma let you finish, but America should have one of the worst credit ratings of all time."

Abe handled that though: http://uberhumor.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/dnt7z.jpg

Mon, 10/17/2011 - 17:56 | 1783153 Ruffcut
Ruffcut's picture

Thank you, sir, but no. I'm only trying to keep ahead (myhead) beyond the ASS system.

Mon, 10/17/2011 - 17:38 | 1783087 PicassoInActions
PicassoInActions's picture

Can some1 tell me , what is the most correlated curency to S&P or DOW?

ANd, as for the France... well Sarcozy will cry all rating agencies are sux.

 

 

Mon, 10/17/2011 - 19:17 | 1783451 zorba THE GREEK
zorba THE GREEK's picture

The French are fried.

Mon, 10/17/2011 - 17:39 | 1783093 Mike2756
Mike2756's picture

Moodys about to get a call?

http://youtu.be/S96DVTtvXqY

Tue, 10/18/2011 - 05:03 | 1784357 Ctrl-Alt-Defeat
Ctrl-Alt-Defeat's picture

FAF - I would plus 1 this all day.

Mon, 10/17/2011 - 17:41 | 1783099 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

S&P will soon follow with the chop to AA.  Sarko's FrAAAnce just became FRAANCE.    Time to dial in the French sovvereign debt CDSs on 10x leveraqge.  And say goodbye to ESFS Sarko.   Your banks are going down.    

Mon, 10/17/2011 - 17:49 | 1783125 knukles
knukles's picture

Then pretty soon we'll all have trouble pronouncing FrBBBnce.
Rhyme with Provance?

Mon, 10/17/2011 - 18:03 | 1783175 A Man without Q...
A Man without Qualities's picture

Here's the rub - Sarko is trying to charm Merkel into allowing the EFSF to become a bank, that will issue bonds, place with ECB and inject equity into French banks.  It's a crazy and desperate idea, but the French ponzi, which has been growing since the era of de Gaulle, is about to reach the endgame.

The web of debt and deceit that exists between the French state, local governments, state owned businesses and banks cannot be resolved....

Mon, 10/17/2011 - 18:51 | 1783354 Tuffmug
Tuffmug's picture

.... but it can be extended. Sarko's scheme is pure money printing to save the ponzi and is the only thing that the market will accept next week  as the "solution" to the "crisis". 

Mon, 10/17/2011 - 17:42 | 1783100 reader2010
reader2010's picture

Infinite QE for all.

Mon, 10/17/2011 - 17:44 | 1783103 kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

Pardon my French, but when you are dead on arrival, how do you weaken?

Mon, 10/17/2011 - 18:09 | 1783204 SemperFord
SemperFord's picture

Because your illness becomes airborne and spreads to others ;)

Mon, 10/17/2011 - 17:43 | 1783109 Josh Randall
Josh Randall's picture

Debt Metrics sounds like a cool name for a college Alt-Rock Band

Mon, 10/17/2011 - 17:59 | 1783163 Mutatto
Mutatto's picture

They'd all be un-employed recent graduates with an assfull of student loans...

 

Tue, 10/18/2011 - 07:07 | 1784409 Overflow-admin
Overflow-admin's picture

Sounds very Rage Against The Machine

Mon, 10/17/2011 - 17:43 | 1783110 Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture

Okay, who put the hot potato back into the microwave? 

 

Mon, 10/17/2011 - 17:43 | 1783111 GottaBKiddn
GottaBKiddn's picture

Not to worry, Christine LaGarde, their beloved finance minister is now heading the IMF>

Tue, 10/18/2011 - 00:13 | 1784121 fourchan
fourchan's picture

and the imf only deals in gold. funny how that works, its too good for america but not them, we get the funny money.

Mon, 10/17/2011 - 17:45 | 1783115 mynhair
mynhair's picture

Zandi approve this message?

Mon, 10/17/2011 - 17:50 | 1783117 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

Glenn Miller - In The Moody's - YouTube

france downgraded to jive, daddy-0 BiCheZ!

Mon, 10/17/2011 - 17:48 | 1783120 knukles
knukles's picture

Phillipe:  Raymon, vous smell terreeeble!
Raymon: Pour cumquat Phillipe?
P:  Vous must washie en la lavatoreee to removeier les smellies our we get doen graddeeed
R:  Mai Phillipe, les services Gran Pigees will down gradddee us eff wee smell.
P: But zee ratting ess for financials.
R:  Oui Phillipe.  Les financelles, zey smell.
P:  Ah, so we wash zee financials like zee Greeks han all be Hokay?
R:  Oui!
P&R:  Lavez, lavez, lavez!

Mon, 10/17/2011 - 17:50 | 1783127 JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

 

 

http://www.imf.org/external/np/tre/activity/2011/101311.htm#tab4

Table 4. Status of Multilateral Debt Relief Initiative Assistance <--- France will be on this list with the rest of Europe in 4.. 3.. 2..

Current Financial Arrangements (GRA, PRG)   Term Definition Arrangements IMF credit is made available under a variety of borrowing arrangements with different disbursement schedules and maturities depending on the balance of payment needs of the member. GRA   Stand-By Arrangements The most common type of credit arrangement designed to provide short-term financial assistance. Purchases under Stand-By Arrangements are repayable in 8 quarterly installments 3¼ - 5 years after disbursement. Extended Arrangements Extended Arrangements provide credit for a longer period since these arrangements usually require fundamental reforms which may need more time to put in place and take effect. Drawings under extended arrangements are repayable in 12 semiannual installments 4½ - 10 years after disbursement. Flexible Credit Line The Flexible Credit Line (FCL) has been established to allow members with very strong track records to access IMF resources based on pre-set qualification criteria to deal with all types of balance of payments problems. The FCL could be used both on a precautionary (crisis prevention) and nonprecautionary (crisis resolution) basis. Members may request either a one-year arrangement with no interim reviews, or a two-year arrangement with an interim review of qualification required after twelve months. Upon expiration, the Fund may approve additional FCL arrangements for the member. Access is determined based on individual country financing needs and is not subject to a pre-set cap. Purchases under FCL arrangements are repayable in 8 quarterly installments 3¼ - 5 years after disbursement. Precautionary Credit Line The Precautionary Credit Line (PCL) has been established to provide effective crisis prevention to members with sound fundamentals, policies, and institutional policy frameworks that have no actual balance of payments need at the time of approval of the PCL, but moderate vulnerabilities that would not meet the FCL’s qualification standard. Members may request an arrangement with duration of between one and two years. Access under an arrangement with one-year duration shall not exceed 500 percent of quota, with the entire amount being made available upon approval of such arrangement and remaining available throughout the arrangement period subject to an interim six-monthly review. Access under an arrangement with a duration of more than one year shall not exceed 1000 percent of quota, with an initial amount not in excess of 500 percent being made available upon approval of the arrangement and the remaining amount being made available at the beginning of the second year of the arrangement subject to completion of the relevant six-monthly review. Purchases under PCL arrangements are repayable in 8 quarterly installments 3¼ - 5 years after disbursement. PRG Trust   ECF Arrangements Concessional arrangements providing credit in support of a three-year macroeconomic and structural adjustment program to eligible low-income members facing protracted balance of payment issues (formerly known as PRGF). The loans are repayable in 10 equal semiannual installments 5½ - 10 years after disbursement. ESF Arrangements Concessional arrangements ranging from one to two years to provide financial assistance to low-income countries that are experiencing exogenous shocks but do not have an ECF arrangement in place. The repayment terms are identical to ECF arrangements. SCF Arrangements Concessional arrangements ranging from one to two years to provide financial assistance to low-income countries that are experiencing short-term but not protracted balance of payments needs. The loans are repayable in 9 equal semiannual installments 4 - 8 years after disbursement.   Interest on all PRGT loans (including outright drawings under the RCF) has been waived through end-December 2011. Arrangement Details IMF financial arrangements are reviewed regularly to assess progress in policy reforms. The disbursement of funds under an arrangement is linked to the achievement of certain financial targets.
Mon, 10/17/2011 - 17:50 | 1783128 carbonmutant
carbonmutant's picture

Hey, not to worry LaGarde says, "...the IMF has adequate resources," She didn't actually say what for though...

Mon, 10/17/2011 - 17:56 | 1783138 kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

Buying Santorini in the bankruptcy sale?

Mon, 10/17/2011 - 18:02 | 1783159 carbonmutant
carbonmutant's picture

Does she have enough money to bailout Dexia or just the French banks...?

Mon, 10/17/2011 - 18:13 | 1783213 kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

Maybe she could borrow a few bucks from the FDIC..., oh wait.

Mon, 10/17/2011 - 18:53 | 1783361 carbonmutant
carbonmutant's picture

PIIGS exposure
Banca MPS (Italy) - $290.98 billion
Banco Popular Español (Spain) 183 Billion
Intesa Sanpaolo Group (Italy) $607.03 billion
BBVA (Spain)  $552.90 billion
Unicredit (Italy) $541.54 billion
Banco Santander (Spain) $567.20 billion
Deutsche Bank (Germany): $354 billion

Of course the real issue is exposure as % of Common Equity:
Allied Irish Banks (Ireland) 33,352%
Banca MPS (Italy)  4,666%
Banco Popular Español  1,927%
Intesa Sanpaolo Group (Italy) 1,638%
BBVA (Spain) 1,566%
Unicredit (Italy) 1,070%
Banco Santander (Spain) 953%

It'll be interesting to see how Christine deals with loaves and fishes...

Mon, 10/17/2011 - 17:51 | 1783131 hambone
hambone's picture

I'm in Bavaria this week and will have a blow off dinner tomorrow night w/ all my German counterparts...can't wait to hear if any have woken up to what is going on, especially if Germany is about to be left propping all of EU on it's lonesome...up til now, none had really seriously considered or questioned their govs actions.  Can't wait to see if anything has changed?

Mon, 10/17/2011 - 18:52 | 1783355 Village Smithy
Village Smithy's picture

Please report back upon your return.

Mon, 10/17/2011 - 17:52 | 1783135 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

Q: what is red and green and spins at 50 mph?

Mon, 10/17/2011 - 17:53 | 1783139 hambone
hambone's picture

Le frog in Le blender?

Mon, 10/17/2011 - 17:55 | 1783150 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

correcte

Mon, 10/17/2011 - 17:54 | 1783142 Mark123
Mark123's picture

The big guys are going to trash the markets until Germany agrees to squander its hard-earned capital to save the system (i.e. transfer any and all remaining wealth to banking cartel).

 

Wouldn't you just love to throw Sarkozy through a chipper?

Mon, 10/17/2011 - 17:55 | 1783149 navy62802
navy62802's picture

Patience, my friends, patience. It'll all be over soon.

Mon, 10/17/2011 - 17:59 | 1783165 Mark123
Mark123's picture

How do we know when it is over?

Mon, 10/17/2011 - 20:01 | 1783558 Hulk
Hulk's picture

When your checks don't cash, because the banks have no money...

Mon, 10/17/2011 - 17:58 | 1783160 CrankItTo11
CrankItTo11's picture

Ron Paul live streaming the first actualy plan ever on YouTube right now... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s-2Zs0-N1dA

Mon, 10/17/2011 - 18:11 | 1783183 Tuffmug
Tuffmug's picture

Moody's and S&P announced today that France is on downgrade review , FDR is confirmed as dead, and JFK may have a large hole in his head but cannot confirm that he was shot.

Mon, 10/17/2011 - 18:04 | 1783186 YesWeKahn
YesWeKahn's picture

This is great, it was all bull last week, suddenly it's all bear. LOL. It's time to short without shame again.

Mon, 10/17/2011 - 18:14 | 1783216 Barry McBear
Barry McBear's picture

Well, now we know why they sold it off today. 

Mon, 10/17/2011 - 18:27 | 1783262 Piranhanoia
Piranhanoia's picture

Note the Euro is not mentioned. It is the French. No, it is everyone. No its the sovereign others.  The collective dufusi will end up blaming each other for everything, and we know how well that has worked out in Yurp.  

Mon, 10/17/2011 - 19:32 | 1783500 knukles
knukles's picture

Dude, seriously.
Having dealt with folks all over the world there are true cultural difecences that stick in one's mind. 
Whilst wrestling with the French, all that matters is La France. 
Everything else is secondary to such priority of life, the universe and everything.
It's a truism. 
Talk about the Euro, seriously, everything higes on La France.
Talk about NATO, La France
BEA syatems etc, when in UK/German/French partnership, it's France.
Talk to a Frenchman about racial inequality, it's America, Le Baniuelles do not exist (It's France, la perfection.)

And man, are they touchy about it, too.
Sensitive to the point of paranoia.
I do not dislike nor disrespect them.  It is what it is and this is what it is.

 

Tue, 10/18/2011 - 02:17 | 1784259 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

have to agree

this just reminds me that we could experience some "creative" crisis resolution

1971 it was France pushing and President Nixon changing the world's financial system in response

ze Germans are now building up a hate on their MSM on foodstuff commodity speculators worldwide

Mon, 10/17/2011 - 18:38 | 1783316 DosZap
DosZap's picture

And if you think THIS game ain't rigged,your an idiot.

Oh, BTW, lets throw some gasoline!!! on that fire,this close to the deadline?.

BS

Mon, 10/17/2011 - 20:36 | 1783666 Money 4 Nothing
Money 4 Nothing's picture

Agreed DZ, my guess is that Greece will shit the sheets brfore France and that should be the show stopper, then let the others fall like dominoes, as planned with impecable timing. Save the banks, screw Greece seems to be the mantra.

Mon, 10/17/2011 - 18:42 | 1783331 ZippyDooDah
ZippyDooDah's picture

Moody's will take three months to observe the obvious. And I love watching glaciers move.

Mon, 10/17/2011 - 18:56 | 1783369 Dingleberry
Dingleberry's picture

NOW do you see why Nixon cut those French bastards off by closing the gold window??? Screw them, let them print their own money and leave our gold alone!!!!!

Mon, 10/17/2011 - 19:10 | 1783424 vote_libertaria...
vote_libertarian_party's picture

Go ahead, add another 300 or 400 billion to the tab France for buying Greek bonds and bank bailouts.  I'm sure Moody's won't mind at all.

Mon, 10/17/2011 - 20:14 | 1783602 PulauHantu29
PulauHantu29's picture

Still Aaa?

LMAO.

Bill Gross said "the rating agencies are worthless"...no wonder.

Mon, 10/17/2011 - 20:18 | 1783616 Buck Johnson
Buck Johnson's picture

I truly think we are going to have a 2008 moment in the next few weeks.

Mon, 10/17/2011 - 20:48 | 1783685 Georgesblog
Georgesblog's picture

We're looking at the process of how people get squeezed out of the bottom of economies. The world is turning into a bad place. It's going to get a lot worse.

http://georgesblogforum.wordpress.com/2011/10/14/wage-slave-2012/

Mon, 10/17/2011 - 20:52 | 1783694 chump666
chump666's picture

1.40 EUR end week!!!  WTF do you smoke, you gotta drop sh*t real fast.  This is pre-curser to the doomsday trade.  This G20 thing they can't do crap, nothing.  If they offer a 50% haircut, the banks will draw liquidity out of the EZ so quick...they tax the Germans 40%+ to beef up the bailout fund.  The Germans will be rioting within a week.  They leverage the ESFS fund via the ECB, watch the rest of the PIIGS yields go into hyper space as the whole EZ/banks/sovereign debt will look to be bailed out also.

This "idea" by Sarkockzy, Merkel and the EU/IMF doesn't exsist.  That is wjy the markets sold off last session and will collapse into the red going into end week.  The worry, Fed Evans (insane) offering that we all need inflation to create jobs.

On top of all this, a global riot is brewing. 

Mon, 10/17/2011 - 20:53 | 1783701 Justaman
Justaman's picture

Where's Carla Bruni when you need her? 

Tue, 10/18/2011 - 00:18 | 1784126 fourchan
fourchan's picture

Dreaming supermodel dreams.

Tue, 10/18/2011 - 04:58 | 1784356 falak pema
falak pema's picture

no having a baby...should pop anytime now.

Mon, 10/17/2011 - 21:02 | 1783721 RobertMugabe
RobertMugabe's picture

Bullish

Mon, 10/17/2011 - 21:57 | 1783827 MiningJunkie
MiningJunkie's picture

No matter what the outcome, it renders fiat purchasing power ineffectual and the Dollar, Euro, Yen will all collapse. Against what, you might ask? Why gold, silver, oil and the grains, of course. Just think Zimbabwe...

Mon, 10/17/2011 - 21:59 | 1783829 surf0766
surf0766's picture

Does the rating really matter when everyone knows the common sense answer? Shouldn't it be junk rated by now?

What rating agency has the lowest rating of France? 

 

 

Mon, 10/17/2011 - 23:08 | 1784014 Bansters-in-my-...
Bansters-in-my- feces's picture

Isn't France one of dem dare rich G8countries,?

Arn't dem da ones gonna save the world ...soon...???

Tue, 10/18/2011 - 03:09 | 1784310 Dick Darlington
Dick Darlington's picture

French-German 10-Year Yield Spread Widens to Record 100 Bps

 

OOPS!

Tue, 10/18/2011 - 04:53 | 1784353 Minoan
Tue, 10/18/2011 - 05:18 | 1784360 Minoan
Minoan's picture

And Uk inflation in September hits 5.2%.

But their bonds are quite expensive.

Tue, 10/18/2011 - 13:20 | 1785844 Georgesblog
Georgesblog's picture

I'm sure that we will see discussion of the role of ratings agencies in devaluing currencies. They appear to me to be hatchet men, working for the central banks. Extoting wealth out of nations has always been the agenda of central banks.

http://georgesblogforum.wordpress.com/2011/10/06/crash-course/#more-742

Tue, 12/27/2011 - 04:56 | 2012848 hamza123
hamza123's picture

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