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RANSQUAWK PREVIEW VIDEO: ECB September'15 Rate Decision: The ECB are expected to leave all three rates unchanged, with focus turning to inflation and the possibility of an expansion to the QE programme





 

  • All surveyed analysts expect the ECB to keep their three key interest rates unchanged
  • A number of analysts have suggested that inflation rhetoric could be downbeat and further QE is a possibility later this year, as such any potential indication to this by Draghi is likely to take centre stage at the press conference
  • The central bank are said to be concerned by inflation expectations, with low energy prices and recent EUR strength raising concerns about the central bank’s mandated 2% inflation target
 
Tyler Durden's picture

Gartman Does it Again: Stocks Set To Surge As Newsletter Bulls Hit 6 Year Low





If there is one thing more or less guaranteed to create a bullish scenario for stocks, it is the sudden flip-flop of world-renowned newsletter writer Dennis Gartman once again to a short-of-stocks position. Worse still, his fellow newsletter writers, according to AAII, have not been this 'unbullish' since the trough in March 2009. Of course, what many are missing this morning isd 120 points of The Dow's gains are due to the panic-intervention by The BoJ at last night's Japan open...

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Wage Growth Meme Destroyed - Unit Labor Costs Tumble At Fastest Pace In A Year





Unit Labor Costs dropped 1.4% in Q2, missing expectations of a 1.2% drop and falling to the lowest since Q2 2014. Despite all the sound and fury and wage growth looming any minute now... it is not! This is the first consecutive drop in unit labor costs since Q4 2008.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

ADP Misses Again, Drops YoY For 7th Month In A Row





Following its disapppointing tumble in July (having missed expectations for 6 of the last 7 months), August ADP printed another miss at 190k against expectations of a 200k rise with last month revised lower. As the energy sectyoir continues to bleed jobs at a rate of 10k per month, ADP's Zandi notes that manufacturing jobs growth is all auto-related (which is extremely worryinmg given the size of inventories). Job groiwth was largely driven by small businesses (85k) as opposed to large business (40k) with Service-producing goods drastically outpacing manufacturing job growth (173k to 17k).

 
Tyler Durden's picture

"The Biggest Problems We Face Is That We’re All Flying Blind To A Large Degree" Warns Deutsche Bank





"One of the biggest problems we face is that there is no historical template for current global market conditions so we’re all flying blind to a large degree. Never before have so many of the most important countries in the world printed so much money and left base rates at near zero for so long. Also never before has the largest economy in the world tried to start a slow process of reversing said extraordinary policy. So there is no road map for this journey, only educated (hopefully) predictions."

 
Tyler Durden's picture

What Declining Global Reserves Mean For Bond Yields: Goldman's Take





As Deutsche Bank put it on Tuesday, we've officially reached the end of the "Great Accumulation" as slumping Chinese growth, plunging crude, and an imminent Fed hike have put enormous pressure on emerging economies’ accumulated stash of FX reserves and that means that buyers of USD assets are becoming sellers at the expense of global liquidity and the perpetual bid for some core paper. Now, Goldman has weighed in, noting that the rise in foreign FX reserves held by non-G-7 countries that started around 2003-04 (at around US$1trn) appears to have ended for good.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Frontrunning: September 2





  • Markets on edge as policymakers flex muscles (Reuters)
  • European shares recover from rough ride (Reuters)
  • For Stock Markets, the Moment When Humans Matter (WSJ)
  • Puerto Rico's PREPA, bondholders have framework for deal (Reuters)
  • Hundreds of migrants protest at Budapest station, want to go to Germany (Reuters)
  • New Whale Seen Moving Tokyo Markets (BBG)
 
Tyler Durden's picture

China Stocks Fail To Close Green Ahead Of National Holiday Despite Constant Intervention, US Futures Rebound





Since today was the last day of trading for Chinese stocks this week ahead of the 4-day extended September 3 military parade holiday to mark the 70th anniversary of the allied victory over Japan, and since Chinese stocks opened to yet another early trading rout coupled with the PBOC's biggest Yuan strengthening since 2010 as we observed earlier, there was only one thing that was certain: massive intervention by the Chinese "National Team" to get stocks as close to green as possible. Sure enough they tried, and tried so hard the "hulk's" green color almost came through in the last hour of trading and yet, despite the symbolic importance of having a green close at least one day this week ahead of China's victory over a World War II foe, Beijing was unable to defeat the market even once in the latest week which will hardly bode well for Chinese stocks come next week.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

The Market's "Other" Panic Indicator Just Went Off The Charts





With indicators from macro-fundamentals (e.g. retail sales, core capex, inventory-to-sales) to market-oriented measures (VIX levels and backwardation, HY credit spreads, commodity prices) all flashing various colors of dead canary in the coal-mine red, we thought today's colossal spike in the Arms (TRIN) Index was a notable addition.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Sheep Led To The Slaughter: The Muzzling Of Free Speech In America





“If the freedom of speech be taken away, then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter.” - George Washington

 
Tyler Durden's picture

It's The Fed, Stupid; Why Kuroda And Draghi Are No Match For Quantitative Tightening





"Worryingly, EM capital flows are already significantly undershooting the projection from the hawkish scenario. The less constructive view is that the Fed balance sheet simply matters far more for EM, with liquidity provided by the ECB and BoJ a poor compensation for the Fed’s retrenchment. The hawkish scenario of Fed stopping reinvestment next year would suggest that EM flows can get weaker, while even a more dovish scenario of a constant Fed balance sheet would not be enough to lift inflows again."

 
Tyler Durden's picture

The Myth Of A Russian 'Threat'





Not a week goes by without the Pentagon carping about an ominous Russian "threat". The Pentagon’s rhetorical games also serve to mask a real high-stakes process; essentially an energy war – centering on the control of oil, natural gas and mineral resources of Russia and Central Asia. Will this wealth be controlled by oligarch frontmen “supervised” by their masters in New York and London, or by Russia and its Central Asian partners? Thus the relentless propaganda war.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Chinese Stocks Open Down Hard As PBOC Strengthens Yuan By Most Since 2010 & Default Risk Hits 2-Year High





Chinese stocks are opening lower: SHANGHAI COMPOSITE INDEX FALLS 4.6% TO 3,020.84 AT OPEN as PBOC fixes Yuan stronger for the 4th day in a row - the most in 5 years.

China credit risk has spiked to 2-year highs as traders increase positions dramatically.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Here's How High Oil Prices Must Climb To Stop Saudi Arabia's Budget Bleed





Saudi Arabia is staring down a current account-fiscal account outcome that makes Brazil look favorable by comparison. With the fiscal budget deficit projected at some 20% of GDP and two proxy wars combined with the necessity of maintaining the status quo for ordinary Saudis serving to make fiscal retrenchment next to impossible, you might be wondering how high oil prices need to climb in order for the Saudis to plug the gap. Deutsche Bank has the answer.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Macroeconomics Is The Root Of All Error





Think about it. We are currently watching global stock markets gyrate toward breakdown trying to anticipate the whims of a cloistered professor who never launched a business, never met a payroll, never shipped a product, and never won an election, yet has been empowered to determine the price of money. What’s even stranger is that people consider this normal. Ask yourself: Why do we wait on pins and needles for Janet Yellen to set interest rates yet laugh at the idea that kings once set the “just price” for a loaf of bread?

 
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