Tick, tock... "it could never happen here?"
"With banks shuttered and Greece’s economy hobbled by capital controls, Varoufakis said in a Bloomberg Television interview in Athens that he would “rather cut my arm off” than sign a deal that fails to restructure Greece’s debt."
The American taxpayer is paying a hefty price to support the “battle” against the CIA’s “strategic asset” gone rogue. The damage: about $9.2 million per day or around $3 billion in total, meaning the US could have created around 67,000 average jobs with the money it's spent fighting the group.
The time to negotiate the Greek referendum this Sunday has come and gone and at this point, one can only sit and wait as the vote results start trickling in on Sunday evening. And, as Goldman's Huw Pill prudently observes, the outcome of Sunday's Greek referendum is uncertain. "Regardless of the outcome, Greece will continue to face substantial economic dislocation in the shorter term." What is interesting is that Goldman says "Greece will ultimately remain in the Euro area even in the event of a ‘No’ vote."
Spot The Recovery...
European Parliament president Martin Schulz said his faith in the Greek government had reached "rock bottom," and, as AFP reports, that he hopes it resigns after Sunday's referendum. Luckily, he has an idea for a solution... the time between the departure of Tsipras' hard-left Syriza party and new elections would have to "be bridged with a technocratic government, so that we can continue to negotiate." Just what The Greeks need - another "Yes man" puppet government to implement whatever Europe's bankers demand.
"... this [Greek] debt is so big that everyone understands that it won’t be repaid. Loans to Greece have just bought time so that those in power don’t have to take decisions. This is like a game: who can hold out longer by not showing that this money has been lost? This burden has become bigger and there obviously is no possibility to repay.... debt writedown of Greek debt will come after bankruptcy of state."
The US oil rig count rose 12 last week - the first rise since December and biggest absolute rise since October 2014. WTI Crude is sliding on the news... pushing near a $56 handle again.
Two short months ago, Yelp's share price collapsed following dismal earnings. Within days the company had an idea for pumping its stock back up - announce the investigation of a possible sale... Now weeks later, the CEO has been forced to admit: YELP CEO SAID TO DECIDE AGAINST FINDING A BUYER FOR NOW. We are sure there was just so much demand and that the company had so much organic growth ahead that he decided against it... traders are not amused - Yelp is down 8% and halted.
According to a report prepared prior to capital controls and the banking sector meltdown, any deal that included creditor concessions on fiscal reforms would mean Greece's debt load would have to be written down.
It appears the sovereign peoples of Europe would not go gently into a Federal States of Europe night. Investors need to prepare for the inevitable political solution: referendums across Europe on the constitution of the Federal States of Europe needed to sustain the Euro. Events this weekend will trigger the search for the democratic legitimacy for the single currency and the centralised constitution it requires... or the demise of the unelected 'king Juncker' and 'queen Lagarde' of the Federal States of Europe.
While Carl Icahn's latest ramblings have brought attention to the 'bubble' in high-yield debt, we would note that the HY market has already dramatically diverged from the ongoing bubble in US equities and as we have been discussing for the past year, this is exactly the pattern we saw in 2008. However there is another aspect of the HY market that is flashing red, High yield debt downgrades are the highest since Lehman and the upgrade / downgrade ratio has tumbled to its lowest since the crisis... The last time this happened, Bernanke unleashed QE3 - are we about to see the same in a massive surprise to markets?