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RANsquawk Weekly Wrap - 5th October 2012

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Meanwhile, In Bahrain...

It appears social unrest is resurgent on the streets of Bahrain once again.  Following the funeral procession earlier in the week (of a young boy who died in earlier street battles with police), protesters are once again gathering and marching to the Pearl Roundabout. Police are active with tear gas and fires are breaking out... via Twitter: #Bahrain is in chaos.

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Spot The Odd One Out

As a job-safe Big Bird might have said "one of these things is not like the other" as we look at the performance difference between financials and industrials in the new normal. While short-term newsflow keeps banks to'ing-and-fro'ing, the inevitable truth is that it appears it is different this time - and not in a good way.

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Goldman's NFP Postmortem

The fact-digging continues, this time out out of Goldman, which has some less than stellar words about what the superficial consensus says was a strong number. Then again, Goldman's agenda is pure goldilocks: an economy that is not too strong and just right for another $2 trillion of QEternity at a minimum. Remember: if jobs were to really surge someone might ask Bernanke if when he will stop his $85 billion/month flow program aka QE3.

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Poor Athens; The Gods Flee Mt. Olympus

The Greeks only assume the mantle of serfdom to keep the pipeline of capital flowing. They have damaged their national psyche in the process and caused undue pain for their citizens but it must seem simpler, to the elite of Greece, to beg rather than go back to work. The problem for Europe now is that the amount of money is so large and the pain will be so great that they wince at the consequences of their misbegotten strategy. Europe provided money, demanded austerity, and kept the charade in play far longer than good sense would dictate. Now, however, I would assert; the tragedy is about to end and the farce about to begin.

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An Odd Arima-X-12 Statistical Aberration?

Here's a peculiar statistical aberration:

  • Household Survey people employed: +873,000 (source)
  • Part-time jobs for economic reasons: +582,000 (source)

-> 582,000 divided by 873,000 = 0.666666666666*

Aka: precisely two thirds. Whatever are the odds... Goalseeking much Arima-X-12?

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Obama Mission Accomplished?

If yesterday was the Romney-rally, is today going to be the Obama-rally?


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Reason For Today's Unemployment Rate Plunge: Part-Time Jobs For Economic Reasons Surge Most Since QE1 Announcement

We already noted the absolutely stunning surge in reported Household Survey jobs which "added" 873,000 jobs, or the most since 2003 and the second most in the past decade, which was just a little bit off the Household Survey used in the monthly NFP jobs changes, which came at 114,000, or about 8 times less. But what was the reason for this epic jump in Household survey jobs? Simple, and those who have read our series on America's transition to a part-time worker society know the answer. The reason is that the number of part-time people employed for economic reasons soared by 582,000 to 8,613,000, the most since October 2011, and the largest one month jump since February 2009, when "restoring" confidence in the economy was all the rage... and just before the Fed announced the full blown QE1 in March of 2009. Odd symmetry.

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Even The Elite Are Conspiracy Wonks Now

There was a time when only fringe blogs and digital dickweeds would suggest the BLS data was anything but entirely above board. That time has ended!

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Trading Halted (Again) On All NYSE Liffe Commodities

For the second time this week, NYSE Liffe has halted all London Commodities, Paris Commodities, and London Universal Stock Futures trading - due to a 'technical issue'. Simply remarkable...

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NFP Prints 114K, On Top Of Expectations Of 115K; Unemployment Rate Tumbles To 7.8% On Expectations Of 8.2%

Complete preelection "massaging" farce.

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Payrolls 'Miss' In September On Average

We've discused how to forecast it, how to trade it, and its politicial implications, so just to tie it all up in a bow, here are the 'surprise' factors for September's NFP over the last 14 years - mostly a miss!

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Turns Out Dumping 1,300 Tons Of Swiss Gold Isn't A Resume Builder After All

Spot the one difference.

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Quote Of The Day

Today's quote of the day comes from Carole Laulhere of SocGen's Forex and rates corporate reserarch.

“I’m so glad I live in a world where there are Octobers” L.M. Montgomery, Anne of Green Gables


Comparisons of October 2012 with 2009, 2010 and 2011 may not prove terribly relevant for a variety of reasons but just like in L.M. Montgomery’s novel, despite the dire situation in the euro periphery, optimism and imagination have helped markets to see the best in things.

And to think it was only 3 years ago that we said to ignore corporate 10-K and Qs, and instead only focus on such central bank flow reports as the H.4.1. and H.3. We have reached the singularity point where nothing else matters but who pumps what, when and where. That and "optimism" and "imagination" of course.

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Frontrunning: October 5

  • Draghi Says Next Move Not His as Spain Resists Bailout (Bloomberg)
  • EU Doubts on Deficit Cutting May Hinder Spain’s Path to Bailout (Bloomberg)
  • Merkel to Visit Greece for First Time Since Crisis Outbreak (Bloomberg)
  • Fed's Bullard warns inflation won't ease U.S. debt burden (Reuters)
  • Walmart Workers Stage a Walkout in California (NYT)
  • Natural Gas Glut Pushes Exports (WSJ)
  • BOJ Refrains From More Stimulus as Political Pressure Mounts (Bloomberg)
  • Big funds seek to rein in pay at Wall Street banks (Reuters)
  • Hong Kong Luxury Sales Fall as Chinese Curb Spending (Bloomberg)
  • Dave and Busters Pulls IPO due to "Market Conditions" (Reuters) - so market at anything but all time highs now is market conditions?
  • Weak U.S. labor market looms ahead of elections (Reuters)
  • Glut of Solar Panels Poses a New Threat to China (NYT)
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