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NFP Big Miss: 120K, Expectations 205K, Unemployment 8.2%, "Not In Labor Force" At New All Time High
March NFP big miss at just 120K. Unemployment rate declines from 8.3% to 8.2%. Futures slide, for at least a few minutes before the NEW QE TM rumor starts spreading. The household survey actually posted a decline in March from 142,065 to 142,034. Considering Birth Death added 90K to the NSA number, the actual number was almost unchanged. And as always, as we predicted when Goldman hiked its NFP forecast yesterday from 175K to 200K saying "if Goldman's recent predictive track record is any indication, tomorrow's NFP will be a disaster", Goldie once again skewers everyone. Finally, Joe LaVorgna's +250,000 forecast was just 100% off... as usual.
The unemployment rate drops to 8.2% for one simple reason: the number of people not in the labor force is back to all time highs: 87,897,000.
Birth Death:
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Time for the sell off.
We Muppets were expecting more.....thx again Goldie.
Doesn't really seem to matter, Missed Expections by over about 100k and unemployment still drops.
What a recovery - http://www.dailyjobcuts.com
/es down barely 1% fk you bs
Check out USD/JPY.
Buy.
Don`t rush it, friend our you may get fleeced. Btw what the f is keeping AAPL up ?
Goldman baited people and took the other side with their own money?
Where's my shocked face?
Doing God's Work Since 1929....
Since the NoFuckingPayroll was nailed on the cross today, expect it to rise on the 3rd day.
It's the same story, different actors is all.
ori
/police-state-descends-on-america
Yes, we know. All bad numbers are valid and all good numbers are government manipilutions and lies.
I didnt say anything was valid or good....120K report while some assclowns guessed 175K....BIG DEAL!
"Stay tuned for a 240K sort of gain in Private jobs for March." -Robert Brusca
In the good old days... all you needed to get people back to work was a whip or a bamboo stick...
WHAT CHANGED?!
Employment bugs were blowtorched. They are all bagholders with empty bags.
If people had put on my NFP/Gas convergence trade when I mentioned it a while back they would have made money.
To you and me, it's Good Friday.
To Goldman, it's Very Good Friday.
The Fed, Congress & the POTUS should all listen to Krugman, if they want to solve our economic woes, because not only is Krugman correct in his latest article inasmuch as he claims that inflation is too low (and that the official data on inflation is a credible gauge), but there should be a concerted effort to dramtically boost inflation, because nothing will sooth what ails an economy with high STRUCTURAL (not cyclical) unemployment, falling real wages and hours worked (in other words, less ability to consume), slumping aggregate demand (for loans, goods, services), and pressures on producers, suppliers, retailers and consumers, at a time of near record government deficit spending and record government debt, like a ramping up of inflation.
Yes, get inflation well beyond its current levels, and all those companies with 'cash' (or, in many cases, debt in the form of fiat piled high as a result of corporate bond sales given record low yields on said bonds) will hire many new workers to produce more of the things that aren't in demand by consumers who can't afford the prices of that which is already being produced.
Also, that ramp in inflation won't at all kill the economy further, because it's irrelevant that Americans are awash in debt as it is, that seniors and savers are engaged in massive deleveraging not out of choice, but necessity (given current rates of inflation and ZIRP), and that such a process won't end up also dramatically ramping bank failures as interest rates ultimately get away from Bernanke slowly at first, and then hasten the pace.
Yes, that Paul Krugman is some kind of genius.
/SARC
[Krugman is one sick bastard and pathological liar. In past columns, he never explicitly supported quantitative easing, but rather, called for fiscal, rather than monetary, stimulus. Not only does he call for more QE now, but if you read his latest sycophant rantings, he explicitly calls for the government to debase debt obligations via high inflationary policy.]
Not Enough Inflation
By PAUL KRUGMAN
Published: April 5, 2012
The Nobel Foundation has become an embarrassment. and Ivy League .edu's are just producing pink slime..
carry on..
One important thing to remember, and I am not being sarcastic here, is that PK is a commie at heart. Anybody free of their liberal/conservative bias knows this to be the case. So as he advocates his so called 'solutions' to our woes, keep in mind that if and when it all truly falls apart, the replacement system of government control over everything would not disappoint this moron. If we achieved the hyperinflation that he advocates, he wins.
He does not like capitalism at all. He is fairly certain he and his lackeys know better. He despises free market solutions. Read a few of his columns if you don't believe me. He is the hig priestess as it were of government control solutions. He is absolutely certain he has a model that knows better than people deciding for themselves. Unfortunately for the sane among us he maintains far too much control over the mainstream thought via his Ivory Tower at the NYT and as it turns out the curriculum taught to economists. So keep this in mind when you consider what he advocates. He would be smitten with the alternative. And personally I think he is more suited for a column in a newspaper in Moscow and a place in Putin's cabinet than he has here in the states advocating his garbage view of economics. NYT op-ed pages fall further into obscurity with him headlining the group.
So down 15 is the best we can do with a miss like this? Imagine what it would look like without the all manipulative Bernank.
You're missing the point...the print is probably higher than reality...just sayin.
Pimping your blog again ORI? you dissappeared for awhile......I guess your needing more readership.
Well paz, definitely not looking for lower intellect types like you. Thanks for not visiting.
It's you're, a combination of you and are with the correct placement of the apostrophe, okay?
Now go back to school, or if you are one of the bitter old men here....well, I have nothing to say to you.
ori
OUch! Hit a nerve did I??? It appears you are you're your which ever way you prefer..... the bitter one my fri-end. Happy pimping to you. I wouldn't waste my time visiting your non-intel-ligent blog
Oh and thanks for showing your true colors in your reply! Hopefully you're your you are donating some money to ZH for your pimping.
you ment "By"
Joe Laugh-vornia, what a peice of work.... How can he ever justify his pay. Oh well, just like all of the other Banksters..
None would have been surprised, had they listened to the Bernank during the last two weeks. Funny sheeple.
Goodmorning :)
GoodFriday.
GoodGrief.
argh
Alas! The correction has arrived and the FED is going to let the market run on its own for awhile. Rejoice!
The recovery is a figment of the media's imagination. All debts come due. Our economy is on the edge of the cliff. I have no doubts that the banks and the Federal Reserve has planned this result from the onset. It has, after all, only been 99 years since the Federal Reserve Act of 1913. Good work in a short time period.
Here is what I am telling those I care about:
http://strayingfromtheflock.org/2012/04/05/an-open-letter-to-my-friends/
This is what I am doing, What are you doing to prepare your family?
NOTHING matters but boosting the numbers by any means possible until COMRADE CHAIRMAN OBAMAKOV is reelected.
Then, it can all be allowed to crash, bringing us the Glorious Socialist World of NEXT TUESDAY!(tm) that Chomsky,Zinn, Alinsky, George Wiley, Bill Ayres, etc., have dreamed of. Remember who the folks we now have in charge were protoges of, folks....
They have been telling us FOR DECADES what the plan is.
Unicorn Math...
Only Obamunists study it, and understand how it works.
Even Bernanke addressed the difference between Obama's BLS numbers and "Reality" last week.
Are you kidding? This is bullish, Ben has cover fo QE.
I'm seasonally adjusted, aren't you?
Why....yes....yes I am. Lightly salted, a freshhhhhh chutney rub, and flavored with garden herbs.
I had a seasonal adjustment last night.
Helped my disposition a-lot
What was his name?
I'm not, but my wife is.
Unemployment down...no QE
Unemployment is down because people stopped looking for work. Look past the headline and look deeper into the numbers.
Headline on Drudge linked to this page.
Number of people not in labor force rises to record 88M...
Boom.....WINNING!!!!
Drudge link is a first I think...time to find another cutting edge blog I guess...LOL
Time for some Maths
The population of the USA = 311 Million
Remove those not in the labour force - 88million
Remove those in Jail- 5 million
Remove the over 65 retiree's - 77million
Remove the Children under working age 75 million.
Remove those in active service -1.5 Million
Remove illegals -11.5 million
Remove those who "work" for the Government - 16.2 million
remove the parasitic Wall Streeters and Bankers - 4 million
Remove those Who are "between jobs" and not working 4.2 million
Remove those who are drug addicts - 12.5 million
Remove the Alcoholics - 12million
Remove the Politicians/ mayors/councilors and hangers on the the US purse strings - 2.8 Million
Remove those who are "consultants" to the above - 1.3Million
Guess Fucking what !!!!!!
That leaves Just you and me being productive tax paying Workers. And Im sick of you blogging on Zero hedge all Day. Get back to work you Fucking Goldbrick.
You set up the problem, but you didn't do the arithmetic ... For a minute I thought that left about 6 of us to carry the rest ... sure seems like it sometimes. But it still leaves more than 80 million to do the heavy lifting. Why is that not enough? Or are you one of those greedy types who thinks you should enjoy the fruits of your own labor?
/sarc>
Johnny Sokko ruled my pre-teen years.
exactly.....as long as the rate is below 8 by election time, no one cares about these prints. Even reagan had a rate above 7 during re-election, but no one has had one above 8
".....as long as the rate is below 8 by election time, no one cares about these prints."
I would imagine that the 88 million care.
Nah, they just have to inform those 88 million people that while they may think that they are hungry and homeless, they actually have full bellies and live in mansions, according to the seasonal adjustments.
Of the 88 million, how many are aged 18-64, if not in college, and say, 25-64, if in college?
Also, how many of these people are disabled?
Don Levit
Aged 18-64: 82 million (1)
Aged 25-64: 64 million (2)
Disabled: 88 million (due to government fuckery)
(1) Pulled from thin air
(2) Pulled from my ass
Bingo. How quickly we forget.
Disability payments from SSI are exploding because the long term unemployed dropping off the end of benefits ARE APPLYING FOR DISABILITY. They are getting it, too.
The statistics are powerful. 80% of applications fail, then 80% of appeals with a lawyer succeed. And 90% of failed applications do seek an appeal.
This is the new cash cow for lawfirms, since title transfer for houses fees dried up. It's real. It's why job participation is cratering. They are not only no longer paying taxes; they are drawing benefits.
yes that is right I DO NOT GIVE A RATS AZZ ANYMORE ....I am not a useles obowmao lackey...I am not going to let ghetto blacks and illegals steal my SS bennies weeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee,strike while the iron is hooooooooooooot...weeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee
This is a meme that seems to be gaining traction among the political aristocracy, and it's likely mistaken. It is incorrect to compare the unemployment rate of 30 years ago w/today's rate b/c they are computed differently. Namely, who qualifies and under what conditions as "unemployed" is much tighter today than it was then; meaning, today's unemployment rate is understated on a comparative basis.
If unemployment rates were measured the same way, then you have some mild predictive power. The fact that today's is very different from 3 decades ago eliminates the predictive power. One is comparing apples and oranges.
If you want to compare then and now use the Labor Force Participation Rate for reasons I indicated in my comment on Brusca's piece yesterday. If you do, you'll see the incumbent is at or near levels of the Jimmy Carter White House. However, if the Republicans self-destruct, as they so often do, then all bets are off.
In the final analysis it really doesnt matter who's in the WH, just as it didn't matter who was at the helm of the Titanic a hundred years ago when they stopped for some ice.
Markets are now so retarded that Ben cant get any market cover to print, 'bad news' is causing futures to sky due to 'knee jerk pricing in QE' so Ben doesnt actually have to QE at all markets rise anyway. HA HA got to love these sillyass market thingies.
That will be the worst part of the next 60 days...QE begging. But it will fall on deaf ears in the near term, as oil is strangling the consumer economy right now...and putting a lot of people at political risk.
So as the QE beggars hit the airwaves, they need to be mocked mercilessly...as the QE regime IS THE ECONOMIC PROBLEM! End that regime, and this nation can finally begin the healing process...and yes, at the criminal syndicate's expense.
Capital formation will not return to markets until such time as all these TBTF banks are broken up and disposed of. It really is that simple.
Or until you are bringing sacks filled with dollars to the grocery store. Or while you are waiting on bread lines right before you fill up your gas tank on every other thursday. One or the other.
that will not cause capital formation lol
The beauty of the non-cash credit/bank card system is they can add zeros more quickly than printing notes. Scientific notation or SI prefixes will come in handy. Megabucks? Gigabucks? Terabucks?
QE beggars saying UE rate dropping and +125K jobs means CRISIS has hit. Ben is just going to coast this Shitmobile as far as he can before the wheels fall off.
The "shitmobile" wheels fell off three years ago, and the thing has remained up on blocks since then. The criminal syndicate known as Wall Street [Fed Reserve] simply set up a scrolling back drop. Only the scenery has been moving since 2008...not the vehicle itself.
As for more QE rumoring...well, Ben Bernanke has already confessed that there is little he can do to improve his second mandate, that of [un]employment...so the criminal syndicate can rumor away to its heart's content.
I say again, as many have before me, the QE regime IS THE ECONOMIC PROBLEM...and certainly not any kind of real solution. Really...who in the financial services industry actually believes that money printing will fix us? Step right up here and sign up to that stupidity...I dare you.
Cover for QE how? Markets not even dinged by this. We're now full retard, markets dont fall for any reason, so why do they think theyre justified more free trillions?
I agree the markets are full retard and he needs more cover. My guess is June will be weaker then July will set the trend fo Ben to QE in August. It's the same old crap as the last two years.
Will that be before or after the debt 'limit' is 'expanded'?
First off futures are down close to 200. Thats not nothing, and it could be the start of something. Secondly my assertion is that he is printing, cover or no cover. Probably within 6-12 months. I will buy a straw hat though just in case I am wrong...which is very possible
They have no choice. They have to print. There is no other option , other than steal everybody's 401k. Which they will do eventually.
Our masters could always take the markets down into the election season so as to make budgets the one and only issue of the election. Sure they would still stealth print enough to keep everything from collapsing to zero but if they can control a decline to the 900ish area on the S&P that would pretty much make the only discussion in this election season what to do about spending... or so I'm thinking.
Seems to me they are stealing from our 401k everytime they print more worthless dollars.
Well maybe thats what they have planned to do next, right when everyone is pricing in their certain QE3 of trillions.
Bingo. Everything bad is sure to swing back as bullish.
And of course everything bullish is simply...bullish. It certainly simplifies life.
Of course, it is bullish. Please read the blog Miscalculated Safety, it covers everything in great detail.
I't Campaign Season
<Kermit> YEEEEEEEEEAAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHH <Kermit>
@slaughterer
It's been a long time coming, but it looks like 2012/13 will be a 2008/9 redux.
Yup,\
officially short AAPL @ $634.37. Looking forward to Monday.
Blame the miss on the beautiful weather...
LMAO!
Where the f*ck is Brian Sack to keep the market up? Oh yeah, he quit.
Gold up 100 dollars Monday
If you can call a 100 jump in gold on the CRIMEX random number generator then go for it. You should be able to retire on Tuesday with the dump trucks full of money you make at the futures casino. Hookers and blow all around.
Do not look behind the curtain you bastards, it is forbidden!!!
Obamanomics, shit unemployment numbers yet the drop in unemployment to 8.2% is all that will be mentioned!
I was looking for a bad number since all the robots are slumbering.
QE3!
buybuybuybuybuybuybuybuy
Oh goody, more QE!
Hope and Change!
CHANGED HOPE!
Crap....NO WE CAN'T.
Right now it's the suckers who are just HOPING for some spare CHANGE who could be the catalysts.
Remember Dimitris Christoulas.
And those taking the anti-muppet position win once again :o) #winning !!!!
Xna on the oldmanga. This is working beautifully.
Great
HOW?!?!
what happened?....
so sad now....
Jeeeuuuuuuust a bit outside.
Replay shows a tad low also.
And that the baseball was, in fact, a live grenade.
This is like a 10 foot give me...
"go ahead, that's good with us...."
The economy is spectaculer!!
No QE 4evr
Obama/Rommney/Goldman Sacks 2012
Well now back to reading the Bernanke tea leaves.
QE4EVR.
Dammit! I said 220k, not 120k!
Dammit Jim....I'm a community organizer, not an economist.
The economy's nearly dead Jim. If I inject more QE, it could kill him!
Sure as hell gonna die if you don't Bones.....just saying.
Scotty
(Off camera)
"I'm givin' her all she's got, Captain! If I push it any harder the whole thing will blow!"
Fat finger at the BLS
according to liesman it was due to part time weather related, probably just a little bump guys in the hill......
LIESman and that puke Zandi are laughable trying to spin
According to Steve Liarman Obummer is the most amazing man that ever walked the earth and we should all bow down and bask in his glory.
The sun was in our eyes. There was a definate crosswind. Only so much we could do given the conditions.
It was Bush!!!!
I don't know.... THE EASTER BUNNY LOOKS MIGHTY GUILTY TO!!
This temple (the U.S. economy) has been destroyed and it won't be rebuilt in three days.
It cannot be rebuilt until the current pantheon of "gods" have been removed.
To quote Gomer Pyle....
SURPRISE,....SURPRISE,.... SURPRISE.....
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J6_1Pw1xm9U
Keep up the great work Tyler and Zero Hedge. Keep up the bad work Goldman! Finally some sanity in the news and data.
wow, everyone has stopped looking for work.
And I thought I was happy because it's
3 DAY WEEKEND!!! WHOEHOE!!!
Which means, of course, that unemployment should soon be healthy again with a sub 5% reading.
Will the Fed Easter Bunny lay a golden egg this spring?
For some definition of "lay"; think "Cleveland Steamer".
A Golden Egg that MELTS IN YOUR HANDS!
ps: rabbits don't lay eggs... just to inform you.... chickens... chickens lay eggs....
and aligators...
pinguins to...
Recoupling.
Unraveling.
Dissolving.
Evaporating
Vaporizing.
manipulating
Transitory.
Adjusted, seasonally
Bullish!
Winning!
Get me some Tiger Blood!
Bitchez!
Job growth and economic improvement are for REAL
by Robert Brusca, PhD., "Chief" Economist
Bobby was right again -
"No time like just before the report to issue some thoughts so that the next day you can be shown to be horribly wrong..."
My thoughts on Brusca are the same as my thoughts were on Kudlow in 2007.
They are both dangerous men and believing in there bullshit is the road to ruin...
Can it be that Bernanke knew this was coming? Thats why he said no QE unless things slowed down? Noooo....
Well Bernanke said no QE, unless a 'crisis' hits...is this really a crisis? 120K jobs number when a few guessed 175K? Its still 120K jobs added, supposedly.
RECORDLOWPARTICIPATIONRATE4EVA
What is gold doing? Or going to do? Rise on QE hopes?
"Gold nature is eternal."
Gold is trading @ 1640 at bullionvault and the dollar is getting hit quite hard, so should probably open on monday +1% or so.
Thanks Tallen
I find it hilarious that they have no problem releasing such a dismal number into a long weekend - plenty of time to let the shock wear off and pump the markets back up by Monday's open.
Incredible. Not.
VERY bad news always comes out on Fridays.
Enough time for the traders to have a cocain filled weekend to forget about it all.
You got that right. Besides, many are already at the Masters. Speaking of which, gotta run.
@razorthin
I would have shorted yesterday, but I don't trade /ES and I didn't want exposure to the long weekend for just the reason you state. But I welcome any Monday/Tuesday retrace for the easy selling. Of course, it goes without saying that I should be in a gambler's anonymous group for still trading in this rigged casino. FRN's are kind of play money, though.
Yeah it's rigged, but what choice do you have if you want to maintain "purchasing power". I am glad I heeded my trusty McGinley Dynamic and switched to MM funds in my retirement account 2 days ago. As for the trade, my short-term models still have me out too. Monday may very well be a different story.
I rarely bother going short anymore. Not keen on getting my face ripped off. I'd rather keep the powder dry for the next inevitable ramp.
Yup, "jobs miss" right next to the more deeply buried "US credit rating gets downgraded" article. However, I don't think it will all be priced in green until the close.
Jobseekers have been "vaporized"; really no different then what's going to happen to the green pieces of paper in your wallet.
This is how ABC news reported the NFP,
March Unemployment Falls to 8.2 Percent as 120,000 Jobs Added