"No Deal" - Greek Bondholders Do Not Think Agreement Can Be Reached Before "Crunch Date"

Tyler Durden's picture

Update: the NYT chimes in, just to make the point all too clear:

Hedge Funds May Sue Greece if It Tries to Force Loss

 

Hedge funds have been known to use hardball tactics to make money. Now they have come up with a new one: suing Greece in a human rights court to make good on its bond payments.

 

The novel approach would have the funds arguing in the European Court of Human Rights that Greece had violated bondholder rights, though that could be a multiyear project with no guarantee of a payoff. And it would not be likely to produce sympathy for these funds, which many blame for the lack of progress so far in the negotiations over restructuring Greece’s debts.

 

The tactic has emerged in conversations with lawyers and hedge funds as it became clear that Greece was considering passing legislation to force all private bondholders to take losses, while exempting the European Central Bank, which is the largest institutional holder of Greek bonds with 50 billion euros or so.

 

Legal experts suggest that the investors may have a case because if Greece changes the terms of its bonds so that investors receive less than they are owed, that could be viewed as a property rights violation — and in Europe, property rights are human rights.

 

According to one senior government official involved in the negotiations, Greece will present an offer to creditors this week that includes an interest rate or coupon on new bonds received in exchange for the old bonds that is less than the 4 percent private creditors have been pushing for — and they will be forced to accept it whether they like it or not.

 

“This is crunch time for us. The time for niceties has expired,” said the person, who was not authorized to talk publicly. “These guys will have to accept everything.”

 

According to one senior government official involved in the negotiations, Greece will present an offer to creditors this week that includes an interest rate or coupon on new bonds received in exchange for the old bonds that is less than the 4 percent private creditors have been pushing for — and they will be forced to accept it whether they like it or not.

 

“This is crunch time for us. The time for niceties has expired,” said the person, who was not authorized to talk publicly. “These guys will have to accept everything.”

Time to remind readers of our definition of nuisance value, long before anyone even considered hedge fund hold outs an issue? Thank you for confirming everything we have said so far.

Original:

Five minutes before market close yesterday, Bloomberg came out with an "exclusive" interview with Marathon CEO Bruce Richards, who may or may not be in the Greek bondholder committee any longer, in which the hedge fund CEO said that the Greek creditor group had come to an agreement and that the thorniest issue that stands between Greece and a coercive default (and major fallout for Europe) was in the bag, so to say. To which we had one rhetorical comment: "Well as long as Marathon is talking for all the possible hold outs..." As it turns out, he wasn't. As it further turns out, Mr. Richards, was just a little bit in over his head about pretty much everything else too, expect for talking up the remainder of his book of course (unsuccessfully, as we demonstrated earlier - although it does beg the question: did Marathon trade today on the rumor it itself spread, based on information that was material and thus only afforded to a privileged few creditors, especially if as it turns, the information was false - we are positive the SEC will be delighted to know the answer). Because as the supposed restructurng expert should know, once you have a disparate group of ad hoc creditors, which is precisely what we have in the Greek circus now, there is nothing even remotely close to a sure deal, especially when one needs a virtually unanimous decision for no CDS trigger event to occur (yes, ISDA, for some ungodly reason, you are still relevant in this bizarro world). Which also happens to be the fascination for all the hedge funds, whom we first and then subsequently repeatedly noted, are holding Europe hostage, to buy ever greater stakes of Greek bonds at 20 cents on the dollar. Because, finally, as the FT reports, the deal is nowhere in sight: "Several hedge fund managers that hold Greek debt have said they have not been involved in the talks and will not be agreeing with the “private sector involvement” (PSI) deal – which centres on a 50 per cent loss on bondholders’ capital and a reduction in the interest they receive... Even members of the committee concede the process is unlikely to succeed in time for the crunch date: a €14.5bn bond repayment falling due on March 20." But, wait, that's not what Bloomberg and Bruce Richards told us yesterday, setting off a 100 point DJIA rally. Time to pull up the Einhorn idiot market diagram once again.

Once again: here is why one should never trust the media, especially when it is serving ulterior conflicted interests. From the FT:

Fraught discussions on Wednesday – led on the creditor side by veteran technocrats Jean Lemierre, special adviser to the chairman of BNP Paribas, and Charles Dallara, managing director of the Institute for International Finance – have hit on a formula with Greek officials that an untested minority of bondholders could yet reject.

 

Several hedge fund managers that hold Greek debt have said they have not been involved in the talks and will not be agreeing with the “private sector involvement” (PSI) deal – which centres on a 50 per cent loss on bondholders’ capital and a reduction in the interest they receive.

 

Alongside them are insurance companies, fund managers and pension funds that also have little incentive in agreeing to the negotiated terms.

 

Several hedge fund managers that hold Greek debt have said they have not been involved in the talks and will not be agreeing with the “private sector involvement” (PSI) deal – which centres on a 50 per cent loss on bondholders’ capital and a reduction in the interest they receive.

 

Alongside them are insurance companies, fund managers and pension funds that also have little incentive in agreeing to the negotiated terms.

 

The creditor steering committee Mr Lemierre and Mr Dallara head represents bondholdings worth an estimated €155bn of Greece’s outstanding €260bn debt. That leaves a further €50bn or so of such uncanvassed private bondholders once European Central Bank and eurozone national central bank holdings are excluded, according to estimates by JPMorgan.

 

It is these private bondholders that must now be brought on board for a negotiated settlement if the Greek government is to succeed in its goal of a “voluntary” debt swap on its full borrowings and avoid a default.

 

“The [expected] agreement is a short-term fix. The market will be happy with it for a few days or a week but then we run into the hard stuff,” said an executive at one multibillion-dollar hedge fund that owns Greek bonds and has not been party to the negotiations. “The hard part is going to be getting the rest of the bondholders [outside the creditor committee] to agree.”

Punchline in 3...2...1...

Even members of the committee concede the process is unlikely to succeed in time for the crunch date: a €14.5bn bond repayment falling due on March 20.

And here is why naive Bloomberg reporters should not report anything and everything they hear hook, line and sinker:

“As a firm we are not convinced that any deal today is the last deal,” said Robert Rauch, director of research at the $2.7bn hedge fund Gramercy, which led negotiations for bondholders in the restructuring of Argentina’s debt in 2007. “This is a multiplayer negotiation and not all the players are even at the table.”

 

Gramercy is one of numerous hedge funds that say they have avoided buying into Greek debt – even though it has been trading at huge discounts in recent months – because they still do not see it as cheap enough.

The story from here on is familiar to all who have been following our narrative on this matter since June:

The options available to Greece and its advisers, Lazards and Cleary Gottlieb, should full agreement fail are hardly attractive. Foremost among them would be Greek legislation to insert “collective action clauses” into the country’s existing debt stock.

 

Such clauses could be exercised to force a recalcitrant minority of bondholders to agree new terms, but in doing so they could trigger credit default swaps written on Greek debt – a dangerous move that could trip the eurozone into a full-blown banking crisis.

 

Part of the problem was that many of Greece’s unknown creditors were thought to be holding out for exactly such a CDS trigger, one fund manager said.

Translation: subordination cometh. But we will touch upon this topic in two months, when everyone else is talking about it and/or is an expert on it.

And since everyone is now at least a broad bankruptcy expert, or very soon will be, here, courtesy of FT's Sam Jones, is a refresher on bankruptcy negotiations game theory, and why one pretty much never gets what one wants, absent spending 4-7 years in bankruptcy court first:

“There isn’t much of a reason for anyone to agree to the terms precisely because of the threat of CAC clauses,” said a fund manager who owns Greek debt. “If people think they are going to get forced into a deal anyway, then why agree to the terms before you have to? Especially if by not doing so you can trigger your CDS.”

 

Whatever the outcome of negotiations in the run up to March, there is little doubt among many bond investors about the worth of the PSI process.

 

As the Emerging Sovereign Group, a $1bn hedge fund owned by US private equity giant Carlyle, told its clients last year, European politicians have opened a “Pandora’s box” that now looks likely to lead to a “repricing of sovereign default risk across the euro area”.

And with numbers like $500 billion, €1 trillion and even €10 trillion flying around, to make sure the firewall in advance of the Greek default is at least half full, if not half empty, we can guarantee readers that the repricing won't be higher. But it will take stocks the usual 6-8 weeks to grasp what is patently obvious to anyone who has put in even 10 minutes of work in analyzing the complete fall out from Europe that is about to hit.

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alien-IQ's picture

I agree, they should pull an Iceland. They really don't have many (any?) other choices.

Reese Bobby's picture

Somewhat different situation.  Iceland has great geothermal and hydro power assets among other things.  Greece is an island that imports most everything they need to live.  They should sell a lot of territory, buy a lot of gold, and then quit the Euro.  Seems like the only shot they have to me.  But then, I'm no EU technocrat.

xela2200's picture

Sorry chief, but Greece is NOT an island, but point taken. They do have some beautiful island, I hear.

Reese Bobby's picture

Oh sure.  Next you'll be calling me scout and denying Italy is an island as well.  I do find it interesting Greece became an island in my mind.  Jump!

xela2200's picture

In everybody's mind. They have been selling Mykons forever. My friends tell me it is a dessert, but they are dicks so..

flyonmywall's picture

Any bets on the lowest denomination brachma bill to be printed, assuming of course, they can buy some ink? I'm betting 1,000,000 drachmas will be the lowest denomination. Anybody care to raise me a few drachmas?

 

alien-IQ's picture

Realistically, I think it might be worth .50 - .40 against the USD.

Which would make a vacation to Greece quite cheep. I've always wanted to go there.

RiverRoad's picture

In that instance I'm willing to do my bit to get their economy going again.......

flyonmywall's picture

Gah, double post.

 

 

deflator's picture

 All this talk of bond defaults makes me think of deflation hanging over our heads like the sword of damocles. The threat of deflation is a great tool at the moment for out of control  money supply inflators that control the WRC. 

 Once the cat is out of the bag that bonds are not going to perform longterm as they have in the past will remove the sword hanging over the markets heads.

PhattyBuoy's picture

Armstrong agrees ...

http://www.martinarmstrong.org/files/Europe%20Hit%20by%20Downgrades/inde...

This is part of the final stages of DEFLATION. As debt defaulted in 1931, the INFLATIONARY turn around took about two years to unfold. As it stands right now, this downgrade is still reflecting the collapse in asset values. As sovereign debt is downgraded, the resale value of existing debt declines. This not only undermines the banks giving them incentives to avoid sovereign debt investment, but pension funds are hit as their asset values also decline. Thus, this is very much the final stage of DEFLATION. Inflation starts only when the majority of bond holders begin to realize that they are better off with private assets. This will make the shift from PUBLIC to PRIVATE asset investment come alive. No government debt will be safe!

tahoebumsmith's picture

There is no Deal, there is no bailout. The Global rescue of the EU never materialized either. Here in the US the super commitee can't do anything, were back at the debt ceiling debate again after a mere 4 months? It's pretty simple to see they have no real answers because they have no money..It's gone and they are on life support now. Just fricken die and get it over with already and stop hoodwinking evey market into believing your going to somehow recover. One thing is for sure, Russia, China and other big players ain't buying any tickets for the show as they have been doing everything they can to avoid the dollar and the Euro.

Reese Bobby's picture

Oh there's more money.  Always more money.  Any useful-idiot, soul-forfeiting Princeton economist can tell you that.  MMT! MMT! MMT!

alien-IQ's picture

yet the market has barely seen two hours in the red since 2012 and even with this news, futures and the EUR/USD are up.

Go figure.

This shit is just nuts.

tahoebumsmith's picture

The market is acting like a person that pulls into their driveway and realizes that their house is fully engulfed in flames. They are running in and getting what they can before the roof comes crashing down. These are the bots, the insiders that are bilking every last dime before it goes. Believe me, they have been in full communication with the fire chief and will know when to run nano seconds before it goes down leaving anyone else inside to burn..

 

lynnybee's picture

we do read what's on this website, Mr. Tyler !    "we" love this website !   it's the best website for education & information that i've ever seen.     it's difficult reading for some of me, but, i keep on plugging along, hoping to understand what's happening to this country.     i've known for years that something just wasn't right, but, now i know why !!    

Goldilocks's picture

+1 , long live ZH!!!

~//~

ab•ro•gate

To abolish, do away with, or annul, especially by authority.
To annul by an authoritative act; to abolish by the authority of the maker or her or his successor; to repeal; -- applied to the repeal of laws, decrees, ordinances, the abolition of customs, etc.
To put an end to; to do away with.

falak pema's picture

hey don't turn me on!`

Abrogate the desire for truth, annul the impulse to express inner soul, repeal the rule of corrupt authority, defy decrees that ban freedom of speech, march against ordinances that make emprisonment on suspicion the rule of the land, abolish the FED that pumps money out of the economy into the laps of the rich and powerful, put an end to a Congress that enriches its friends and its incumbents on the side and defies human logic. There... said it with ire and I hope raging fire!

I'm turned on!

tahoebumsmith's picture

Here is a good video Lynnybee for you to watch...It will help you make more sense of what you read everyday...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ed2FWNWwE3I&feature=player_embedded#!

The Heart's picture

Wow!

Speaking of crunches and dates.

Look at this Mitt Romney well researched video crunch and imagine that we approach the NC DATE!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ARnzBOkKAiE

 

tahoebumsmith's picture

Like it, especially the facts presented from Ms. Barnhardt. Thank you

honestann's picture

Hedge Funds May Sue Greece if It Tries to Force Loss

Greece should flat out default 100%.

Without any debts to pay, Greece could prosper.  Then swear off debt forever more, and be an honest, rational country.

They should also adopt ONLY real, physical gold denominated in grams as "money", with no fractional reserve practices of any kind.  They'd become the new Switzerland in about 12 months.

alien-IQ's picture

Largely due to banking propaganda, people have it all backwards.

Default is NOT the problem...it's the SOLUTION.

honestann's picture

#####  EXACTLY  #####

Lending is not a risk-free endeavor.  If it was, then every loan to every individual or organization would carry the exact same interest rate.  This is obvious.  This has been well known for dozens of centuries.

The only way an individual or nation can be dynamic is to carry no debt, or very little.

However, when you have a predator-class who can create fiat, fake, fraud, fiction, fantasy, fractional-reserve debt-money out of thin air at zero expense and lend it to individuals and organizations and governments at interest, they have ZERO incentive to be prudent or even rational.  They have ZERO skin in the game.  The WORST that used to happen is their bank goes bankrupt... and the executives simply go start another one.  Today, that doesn't even happen if your scam-bank is huge... the government AKA taxpayers pay your losses and hyper-insane executive salaries and keep your racket going.

This is why ONLY real, physical gold can be money.  And this is why all fiat, fake, fraud, fiction, fantasy... and especially all fractional-reserve practices must END.

Otherwise, predators rule the earth - permanently.

Element's picture

honestann ... if Ron Paul turns out to be ... heaven forbid, ya know, another Goldman puppy (golden retriever?) ... would you run in 2016?

I'd vote for you (if I were a yanky)... need someone to tear this allegedly 'civilized' shit down at that point ... and I do believe you mean it

(no, not trying to get you assasinated here, love you too much for that girl)

honestann's picture

If I thought there was a plausible chance, I might... even though I do not accept that any individual has any legitimate authority over any other, including me.  However, if my purpose is what you say, to eliminate the [authority of the] system from within, I guess maybe I could hold my nose and get the job done.  Like you say, the job sure needs to be done.

As it so happens, I'm working on a project that could lead to the same result.  The good news is, it is vastly more likely to succeed than someone like me would be to get elected.  The bad news is, our chances to finish the project in time are marginal because we cannot accept financial support from governments or corporations (at least not any corporation that would require they control the technology).

I wish more people understood what an incredible cliff mankind is running towards at top speed, and how permanent and terminal the consequences will be.  With modern monitoring, police-state and military technologies the predators-that-be and predator-class will soon be able to assure their absolute, complete, total domination of their new mutated two-legged sheep species will be permanent.

Perhaps the most disgusting aspect of this disaster is... those few of us who understand what's happening seem to be almost completely incapable of any real, effective collaboration.  By collaboration I mean REAL collaboration on something REAL and PHYSICAL... not just posting blobs and forum messages on the internet and voting for Ron Paul.  I mean real, serious actions to achieve one or the other solution (exterminate the predators, or develop our own frontier outside the effective grasp of the predators).  I prefer the later, but either will do at this point.

Frankly, by far the best first step is getting Ron Paul elected.  That could lead to a large number of honest, benevolent people finding their way into the federal government over the following 8 years, which at least provides a chance to try to turn the titantic around... rather than sink it.

jimmyjames's picture

They should also adopt ONLY real, physical gold denominated in grams as "money", with no fractional reserve practices of any kind.

They'd become the new Switzerland in about 12 months.

***********

I suspect the radioactive fallout from the nuke would still be too high in 12 months-

honestann's picture

Good one.  And possible.  The predators-that-be and predator-class ARE predators after all.

However, that would expose the predators AS clear and unmistakable predators in a way that almost nobody could possibly deny any longer.  That's why I doubt they'd do anything like that.  They didn't nuke Iceland, did they?

jimmyjames's picture

A few months old-so likely more by now-

**********

The aggregate CDS exposures of the big US banks are certainly large enough to be plausibly consistent with the BIS estimate of about $100 bn in indirect exposures to peripheral Europe. If you add up the highlighted numbers (and make a guess at Citi's position), it seems reasonable to guess that the total net open positions on CDS protection sold to third parties by the big US banks is between $1,500 and $2,000billion. Attributing $35 bn of that (about 2%) to Greece, which has certainly had one of the most active markets (proportionally) for CDS contracts over the past year, doesn't seem to be a stretch.

http://streetlightblog.blogspot.com/2011/06/indirect-us-exposure-to-euro...

Calmyourself's picture

"especially if as it turns, the information was false - we are positive the SEC will be delighted to know the answer"

See how he did that making everyone think there is like a financial cop that stops lawbreakers tweeet, stop with that market manipulation, what a cute story..

"creditors thought to be holding out for a CDS trigger"  This one is even better..  who in the heck can pay all the CDS contracts layer upon layer of them, will magic CDS fairies descend to make it all ok and dispense milk and cookies...

 

 

HD's picture

I gave some homeless guy a few bucks for a sandwich and hot coffee and he promised he'd pay me back. Well, it's been months and I'm shocked, SHOCKED that this man doesn't feel the need to live up to his legal and moral obligation to make good on this loan.

I hope he has a good lawyer because I'm going to take him for everything he has.

jonjon831983's picture

Dammit 2nd time suckered by Bloomberg.

 

1st time was their Samsung-RIM story!

ebworthen's picture

RIMM is toast, or pork.

Stick a fork in them, they are done.

Samsung and LG appear to be "on it" however.

gwar5's picture

I saw the title and immediately thought of Einhorn's earlier circular flow chart, and then there it was, Tyler already had it qued up. 

 

Return2Sanity's picture

 

Default, Greek style:

"Okay, we offer you three options.

1. We don't pay you back and you are okay with that.

2. We pass a law that makes it illegal for you to accept our money. Then we pay you back, but we arrest you after and you pay us a big fine.

3. You come to Greece and we repay you in full with feta and kalamari, but you must pay for your lodging while you're here, and believe me, this will take a very very long time.

You get to choose, so it's totally voluntary, you see."

 

Outlaw Of The Wasteland's picture

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-01-18/greece-to-rent-out-ancient-sites/3779612/?site=melbourne

 

Greece to rent out ancient sites

Updated January 19, 2012 09:15:57


Available for rent: The Parthenon atop the Acropolis

In a move bound to leave many Greeks and scholars aghast, Greece will open up some of the debt-stricken country's most-cherished archaeological sites to advertising firms and other ventures.

The Greek culture ministry says the first site to be opened will be the Acropolis.

It says the move is a commonsense way of helping "facilitate" access to the country's ancient Greek ruins, and says money generated will fund the upkeep and monitoring of sites.

For decades, archaeologists have slammed such an initiative as sacrilege.

The culture ministry says any renting of ancient Greek sites will be subject to strict conditions.

According to a ministerial briefing dating from the end of December, a commercial firm could rent the Acropolis for a professional photographic shoot for as little as 1,600 euros a day ($1,950). Demonstrators could also rent the ancient landmark.

Greece needs every euro it can get. The country's public coffers are drained and the nation is struggling to avoid a historic debt default in March.

Greece was bailed out in May 2010 by the European Union and International Monetary Fund and is in the process of nailing down a second rescue, though it is undergoing tough talks with private creditors to reduce its massive debt mountain.

Commercial use of Greece's archaeological sites has until now been the responsibility of the Central Council of Archaeology, which has been very choosy about who gains access.

In recent decades, only a select few people, including Greek-Canadian filmmaker Nia Vardalos and American director Francis Ford Coppola, have been able to use the Acropolis.

Most filming and advertising requests have been refused.

 

 

Perhaps shaquille o'neal is a time traveler after all: 

Asked whether he had visited the Parthenon during his visit to Greece,
sportsman Shaquille O'Neal is reported to have replied:  "I can't really
remember the names of the clubs that we went to." 1994

jimmyjames's picture

Legal eperts suggest that the investors may have a case because if Greece changes the terms of its bonds so that investors receive less than they are owed, that could be viewed as a property rights violation — and in Europe, property rights are human rights

*******************

Didn't the Icesave losers from the UK try something like that with Iceland after the default-because Iceland's government kept the local depositors and bond holders whole and let all the foreign holders sink with zero returns-

The circumstances are a bit different-but as far as I've heard-litigation hasn't worked-

Element's picture

"Hedge Funds May Sue Greece if It Tries to Force Loss"

 

The saying "you can't get blood out of a stone", comes to mind.

falak pema's picture

This game is looking more and more theatre of the absurd.

Two MAfias competing to "bleed the stone" of the Greek nation; one, the kleptocratic Oligarchy that runs it and blackmails Eurozone, and the other, the HFs brigands; financial vultures, who want their pound of meat off the carcass of suffering, bloodless people!

And the Ponzi CDS world, creators of the biggest fiat bubble that puts to shame the tulipmania of old as its on world-wide scale,  looks on at this antichamber of horrors to its own inevitable demise; financial Sarajevo type moment, which will sound the bugle of collective folly if it goes sour. 

How can a ponzi financial market that generates synthetic derivative marketbets  of a value of 700T every year pretend it serves the cause of the real economy of 60T annual value? The shadow market now dwarfs the real economy to the point where all else becomes meaningless. We are in ethereal levitation and heading for a hard landing when the fizzle will go out!

 

Element's picture

It's the sum of listening to liars, and what it brings into our world.

Humans will never be able to walk the talk of Austrian economics.

Same goes for democracy.

Humans may have formulated these, but it seems they were meant for another completely different and so far non-existent species.

 

Oh look, re-runs of Big Brother 2003!

RiverRoad's picture

Or blood out of a turnip.

ebworthen's picture

"Stand or Fall"

The Fixx

1980's Classic.

"Crying parents tell their children
if you survive don't do as we did
A son exclaims there'll be nothing to do to
Her daughter says she'll be dead with you
While foreign affairs are screwing us rotten
Line morale has hit rock bottom
Dying embers stand forgotten
Talks of peace were being trodden

Stand or fall
state your peace tonight
Stand or fall
Let's state it tonight

Is this the value of our existence?
Should we proclaim with such persistence
Our destiny relies on conscience
Red or blue, what's the difference?

Stand or fall
state your peace tonight
[Stand or fall
Let's state it tonight

It's the euro theatre
It's the euro theatre
It's the euro theatre..."

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OMNPMjsM_Yo

falak pema's picture

The song of the 80s : 

But that was before Reaganomics were invented to save the Western world! Right???

Absolutely, and, it fathered the current Ponzi, of which the Euro is the illegitimate son, specially fathered by Eurocrats to compete with the elder brother, the all powerful Greenback! 

Now they are both in convolution, and the solution does not look like Evolution but more and more Revolution !

"Stand or Fall...Let's state it tonight... has a Call beyond the theatre of the absurd! 

Don't cry for Euro, cry for freedom, as that's what is now truly on the line!

the tower's picture

"Bondholder rights" are a human right? Since when? 

I think this shows that losses are hitting home, where they belong: by the people that created all this shit in the first place.

Get in line for foodstamps guys, that's where you banker and hedge fund elite scum belong!

 

RiverRoad's picture

Fer sure.  Apparently every other sector can collapse and consolidate except for the banksters little fiefdoms.

DutchMadness's picture

The question is: who owns those CDS on Greece and other European Olive Oil countries? Those institutions are toast after a Greec default.

FairyTale's picture

I think I have the answer to the European debt crisis, including Greece.  Sell the jewels. 

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/femail/article-2088395/Tiaras-dawn-Europes-Ro...