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Obama Revises CBO Deficit Forecast, Predicts 110% Debt-To-GDP By End Of 2013, Worse Deficit In 2012 Than 2011
While we have excoriated the unemployable, C-grade, goalseeking, manipulative excel hacks at the CBO on more than one occasion by now (see here, here and here), it appears this time it is the administration itself which has shown that when it comes to predicting the future, only "pledging" Greece is potentially worse than the CBO. WSJ reports that "President Barack Obama's budget request to Congress on Monday will forecast a deficit of $1.33 trillion in fiscal year 2012 and will include hundreds of billions of dollars of proposed infrastructure spending, according to draft documents viewed by Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal. The projected deficit is higher than the $1.296 trillion deficit in 2011 and also slightly higher than a roughly $1.15 trillion projection released by the Congressional Budget Office last week. The budget, according to the documents, will forecast a $901 billion deficit for fiscal 2013, which would be equivalent to 5.5% of gross domestic product. That is up from the administration's September forecast of a deficit of $833 billion, or 5.1% of GDP." Where does the CBO see the 2013 budget (deficit of course): -$585 billion, or a 35% delta from the impartial CBO! In other words between 2012 and 2013 the difference between the CBO and Obama's own numbers will be a total of $542 billion. That's $542 billion more debt than the CBO, Treasury and TBAC predict will be needed. In other words while we already know that the total debt by the end of 2012 will be about $16.4 trillion (and likely more, we just use the next debt target, pardon debt ceiling as a referenece point), this means that by the end of 2013, total US debt will be at least $17.4 trillion. Assuming that US 2011 GDP of $15.1 trillion grows by the consensus forecast 2% in 2012 and 3% in 2013, it means that by the end of next year GDP will be $15.8 trillion, or a debt-to-GDP ratio of 110%. Half way from where we are now, to where Italy was yesterday. And of course, both the real final deficit and Debt to GDP will be far, far worse, but that's irrelevant.
More from WSJ:
"The Administration forecast is used to develop the Budget, and at that time we predicted the unemployment rate would average 8.9% in 2012 and 8.6% in 2013. These forecasts were close to the consensus of private forecasters at the time," White House Council of Economic Advisers Chairman Alan Krueger said in a statement earlier in the week.
The budget includes more than $350 billion in short-term measures for job growth; a six-year, $476 billion proposal for roads and other surface-transportation projects; and more than $360 billion in savings in health programs such as Medicare and Medicaid.
The draft documents don't include all the details of the president's budget but show similarities to the budget plan the White House laid out in September 2011. The budget proposal, for example, repeats a call for $1.5 trillion in new revenue, mostly from ending Bush-era tax cuts for families earning more than $250,000 a year.
The White House has said the budget will reflect the president's overall economic message of trying to ensure the economy maintains momentum while everyone is paying their "fair share" of deficit reduction. "The President's 2013 Budget is built around the idea that our country does best when everyone gets a fair shot, does their fair share, and plays by the same rules," one of the budget documents said.
The budget also calls for a 5% increase in nondefense research-and-development spending over the previous year and proposes $2.2 billion for advanced manufacturing research and development—a 19% increase over 2012.
Last but not least, it also means that the Treasury debt ceiling will now with almost absolutely certainty, be breached before the election, meaning as Obama is electioneering, the Treasury will be plunder government pension funds to stay under the ceiling for as long as possible.
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but wait, aldo!
what about these same mofoZ goin down the same sewer with a "new program" for (gag) MBS?
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"(see here, here and here)..." LMAO
"Deficits don't matter."
Keep printing.
"Assuming that US 2011 GDP of $15.1 trillion grows by the consensus forecast 2% in 2012 and 3% in 2013, it means that by the end of next year GDP will be $15.8 trillion, or a debt-to-GDP ratio of 110%."
This is what the CBO is assuming in 2012 and 2013 for GDP.....
Economic Growth, Deficits, Unemployment Rate, Etc.
The CBO’s alternative forecast shows economic growth of 2.0% in GDP for FY2012. Regular readers will know that this number is fairly consistent with what I have discussed in recent weeks based on the various sources I use. No surprise there, at least for us. Yet the mainstream media seemed to be roundly disappointed in this forecast for 2012.
Making matters worse, the CBO’s projection for FY2013 was for growth of only 1.1% in GDP. That number was lower than even I expected for next year. The CBO cites the end of the Bush tax cuts at the end of this year, federal spending cuts due to kick in next year, the end of the payroll tax cut and the implementation of ObamaCare as just some of the reasons for the low growth projection.
Oh shit.....
Anyway...here's a link to the article....http://profutures.com/article.php/783/
I bet ya that Bernanke wears wool underwear and the f**ck enjoys it.
Bought some silver coins and emergency food today. Man did that feel good.
The MSM are praising his 2013 bduget in headlines, calling it the lowest deficit in years. I give up. I don't care anymore. Whatever happens, happens.
Obama's an affirmative action half-breed high yellow perpetual liar and fraud.
But he'll be re-elected. Why? Because other than Ron Paul the Republicans only offer snakes.
And people will probably prefer a fraud to a snake. At least you can somewhat relate to a fraud.
We are really screwed.
An empire engaged in perpetual war costs treasure. Nothing but choices iffin it was not figured in.
the hole is too deep... so the fool digs faster, hoping to find an exit, not realizing that rock is just a short distance further down (loss of reserve currency status and declining global credit market access), at which time it will finally be obvious, even to the fool, that there is no way out and any reasonable hope of escape has been destroyed, leaving only dynamite (total war) as a last resort in a final blast of desperation by the sociopaths who call themselves government, hoping that afterward they can climb out by piling high enough the corpses of those they have drug into the hole with them
This is great news for lower interest rates.Obviously the market equates higher and higher debt/gdp ratios to lower inteest rates.when we hit %200debt/GDP,which should be in about 10 years, the thirty year probably will be at %1
http://confoundedinterest.wordpress.com/2012/02/10/2012-federal-budget-obamas-grecian-formula-of-1-33-in-deficits/
In summary, this budget harkens back to the classic ’60s rock/country song by Joe South, Freddie Weller and others called “Games People Play.” Except that a new version should be recorded called “Games The Administration Play.” It would fit this budget proposal perfectly: its all games, not a serious effort to govern.
“Oh the games people The Administration play now
Every night and every day now
Never meaning what they say now
Never saying what they mean
And they wile away the hours
In their ivory towers (Cass Sunsteen, Austan Goolsbee, Larry Summers, Christina Romer, Elizabeth Warren, etc.)
Till they’re we’re covered up with flowers (cradle to grave entitlements)
In the back of a black limousine.
Chorus
La-da da da da da da da
La-da da da da da de
Talking ’bout you and me
And the games people The Administration play
Oh we make one another cry
Break a heart then we say goodbye
Cross our hearts and we hope to die
That the other was to blame (Congress and specifically House Republicans)
Neither one will give in
So we gaze at our eight by ten
Thinking ’bout the things that might have been
It’s a dirty rotten shame
Repeat Chorus
People walking up to you
Singing glory hallelulia
And they’re tryin to sock it to you (Obamacare, Dodd-Frank, EPA mandates, tax the “rich”, ignoring The Constitution)
In the name of the Lord (Jesus would want to raise taxes on the rich and give to the Romans – funny, I missed that part of The Bible!)
They’re gonna teach you how to meditate (or community organize)
Read your horoscope, cheat your faith (requiring Catholic organizations to fund contraceptives against their will)
And further more to hell with hate
Come on and get on board
Repeat Chorus
Look around tell me what you see
What’s happening to you and me
God grant me the serenity
To remember who I am (an individual, not part of a Utopian collective)
Cause you’ve given up your sanity (not to mention personal freedom)
For your pride and your vanity
Turns you sad on humanity
And you don’t give a da da da da da “
Hey, Joe South actually understood The Obama Administration back in the 1960s!