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Ray Dalio: Don't Assume That Germany Will Bail Europe Out; Consider The "Fat Tail" A Significant Possibility

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Lately, more and more professional investment "advisors" and newsletter recommendations boil down to just one catalyst: wait for either Germany, the ECB or the Fed to step in, as usual, and bail the world out, because, well, they have to, and any additional thought is rendered moot as fundamental analysis is meaningless under central planning (plus it is actually more work than just repeating the same stuff over and over while charging $29.95/month for it). Of course, when these same snakeoil salesmen are asked the simple question: what if said bailout does not happen, or if it happens late (for the purposes of this exercise let's assume one is not a central bank that can print its own money, have an infinite balance sheet, and can afford to be wrong almost into perpetuity), they give a blank stare, start mumbling something and walk away, especially if one mentions Lehman brothers and the simple detail that, oh, it failed. Which is why if Ray Dalio, head of the world's largest hedge fund, is correct, it may time to summarily fire and stop subscribing to each and every broken record Oracle whose template is "X will bailout Y" for the simple reason that it is wrong.

From Bridgewater's Daily Observations:

Be Careful When Betting Against Human Nature

 

Alliances are shifting in a logical manner. The German-French alliance is breaking down in favor of contributor (higher rated credit) countries aligning against recipient (lower rated credit) countries. Similarly, the terminology to describe who is reasonable and who is unreasonable reflects these parties' respective interests. Those who don't have to contribute use terms like "inflexible" and "irresponsible" to describe the contributors' reluctance to "do enough" to prevent collapse by lending more to recipients who can't service their existing debts, while those who have to contribute use terms like "inflexible" and "irresponsible" to describe the recipients' reluctance to "do enough" cutting of their spending and borrowing to service their debts. Students of human nature and deleveragings know that this is to be expected.

 

Similarly, talk of a fiscal union to resolve these problems has to be looked at in light of the question of whether it is in the interest of fiscally strong contributors to have a fiscal union with fiscally weak recipients in which the majority rules how the money is divided.

 

For this reason, we think the popular assumption that the Germans and the ECB (which requires agreement of the key factions within it) will come through with the money to make all these debts good should not be taken for granted. Said differently, we think there are good reasons to doubt that European bank and sovereign deleveragings will be prevented from progressing to the next stage in a disorderly way, without a Plan B in place. This "fat tail" event must be considered a significant possibility.

 

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Tue, 06/26/2012 - 20:14 | 2563336 bob_dabolina
bob_dabolina's picture

It will most likely happen, but be prepared for it to most likely not happen.

Is that a fair KISS statement summarizing this entire atricle?

Tue, 06/26/2012 - 20:07 | 2563338 Excursionist
Excursionist's picture

A tail event is still, well.. a tail event.  Never underestimate a populace's (even the Germans') fear of the unknown.

I saw an interview with a Greek on the street on the Sunday of the elections, and he fessed up:  "I voted for Syriza last time, but now that it's serious, I don't want to jeopardize my and my kids' futures."  So he ended up voting for Pasok.  Epitome of the term 'sheeple.'

Tue, 06/26/2012 - 20:18 | 2563364 CPL
CPL's picture

We'll get around to that electing someone qualified later, next time, next year...you know, down the road.

Tue, 06/26/2012 - 20:18 | 2563366 stocktivity
stocktivity's picture

Yeah but think about it for a minute....That same Greek on the street can now retire at 60. A similar German on the street can't retire until 67. So by voting against Syriza and staying in the Euro, the Greek on the street gets a bailout from the stupid German on the street so he can still retire at 60.

Wed, 06/27/2012 - 17:21 | 2566471 kanenas
kanenas's picture

Look for the EFFECTIVE retirement age in the two countries you mentioned.

Greeks retire later(62.4) than the "advertised" retirement age(58), and Germans retire earlier(62.1 vs "65"). 

http://www.forbes.com/sites/jasonoberholtzer/2011/03/22/effective-retire...

 

Tue, 06/26/2012 - 20:21 | 2563375 nmewn
nmewn's picture

Or one Robo's wildebeast pics.

Tue, 06/26/2012 - 22:07 | 2563672 Clever Name
Clever Name's picture

Its great to talk about what needs to be done in the abstract, not so much when you have no food...

Wed, 06/27/2012 - 17:17 | 2566455 Excursionist
Excursionist's picture

And here we get to the heart of it all - incur significant near-term suffering for the benefit of a better future OR incur moderate suffering indefinitely?

Yours is a fair point, but the question is not whether Greeks will suffer.  The question is about the allocation of the suffering.

I'll be judgemental and say that it's absolute horseshit to make your kids, grandkids and perhaps great grandkids pay for your layabout, borderline-communist ways.  Americans will eventually have to show their true colors on this point as well, but right now it's the Greeks who have to decide.

Tue, 06/26/2012 - 20:34 | 2563345 JustObserving
JustObserving's picture

There may be a fat tail event looming but the VIX is under 20.  The complacency in this market is very high - maybe everyone is confident of the Bernanke put.

If Germany refuses to back Euro bonds or bills and leaves the Eurozone, will France want to issue Euro bonds and take on the liabilities of weaker countries?

No country will be foolish enough to take on the debts of another country without cast-iron guarantees.  

Tue, 06/26/2012 - 20:42 | 2563436 Not Too Important
Not Too Important's picture

This isn't about 'countries'. It's about the rise of supra-national entities that want to rule with an iron fist. And they're winning.

With the VIX under 20, it just shows that the supra-nationals don't have much to worry about.

The only problem with their plan is Fukushima. It's going to kill us all pretty evenly. The bloodlines are all coming to an end. They have offended G-d, and G-d will fix that which is wrong.

Tue, 06/26/2012 - 22:05 | 2563670 Clever Name
Clever Name's picture

And what, pray tell, would a 'cast iron guarantee' consist of?

 

I agree with your sentiment of course, but was just wonderin.

 

My true question is, how to profit from this?

Tue, 06/26/2012 - 23:27 | 2563883 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

rust futures

Wed, 06/27/2012 - 08:30 | 2564501 Captain Kink
Captain Kink's picture

Nice.

Tue, 06/26/2012 - 20:10 | 2563346 ddtuttle
ddtuttle's picture

If it's not obvious, I'll say it.  If the curent danger of financial aramegeddon is not enough to scare these idiot polticians into cooperating, a higher level of danger will come into play.  Everything is so gridlocked a Lehman event may be required to break the logjam.  This is real russian roulette with our futures.

 

Tue, 06/26/2012 - 20:10 | 2563347 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

It sure took long enough for these fucksticks to catch on.. Step B, C and D below

 

Beating a dead horse has become EU's main circus attraction. An instrumental planning/steering committee group over at the United Nations building has been put on suicide watch. 

Watch how the elected Washington DC sleeper cells operate when given the signal to complete their mission.  

Barack Obama: 'The Messiah is absolutely speaking' 

Ministry Messiah 

It was not supposed to end this way... Waa! Waa! Ccca-a-a-a-at. Ca-a-a…

Tue, 06/26/2012 - 20:11 | 2563351 sangell
sangell's picture

There is also the possibility that a man is drowning and a rescuer jumps in and both drown.

Tue, 06/26/2012 - 20:14 | 2563358 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Am I nuts for thinking "wait for either Germany, the ECB or the Fed to step in, as usual, and bail the world out, because, well, they have to". is the main point zh is usually driving at?

Tue, 06/26/2012 - 20:14 | 2563359 tawse57
tawse57's picture

We will all be sat on here 5 years from now angsting over the EURO about to collapse and still wondering whether it will bring down the banks, the stock markets, etc.

Perhaps it is time to admit that we have all been wrong. That our gold and silver is falling in price and that the DOW will probably be 15,000 by November election day?

They have mastered the art of kicking the can down the road, rewarded the greedy and the feckless whilst punishing the prudent.

They can just keep printing for years to come or until the war with China arrives.

Is it time to admit that we have lost? It would be nice to get some serious discussion on this possibility other than "silver b*tch!"

 

 

Tue, 06/26/2012 - 20:23 | 2563381 stocktivity
stocktivity's picture

or...to put it another way...It's all Bullshit!

Tue, 06/26/2012 - 20:32 | 2563413 BeanusCountus
BeanusCountus's picture

I'm no nostradamus. And that's probably a good thing. Only thing is that this IS different than recent messes we have been in. Never in history have so many broke countries been faced with present conditions at the same time. Sure, the Dow could be at 15k by November. But it could also be at 8k. I'm not counting anything out. And neither should you.

Tue, 06/26/2012 - 22:25 | 2563732 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

happens all the time. "we call them currencies" and we trade them too. move along or get in the game! (or if you're me "move along and be the game.")

Tue, 06/26/2012 - 21:56 | 2563650 andrewp111
andrewp111's picture

5 years from now there will either be no Euro at all, or a New Roman Empire with the Euro as its currency.  A purely binary outcome. Place your bets and take your chances.

Tue, 06/26/2012 - 20:17 | 2563361 chubbar
chubbar's picture

The time between a Greece or Spain default and a worldwide bank holiday will be measured in minutes. This is going to be quite a ride.

Tue, 06/26/2012 - 21:01 | 2563511 SwingForce
SwingForce's picture

Understand that the decision to default is not in the hands of Greece or Spain: The Banksterz are running the show. Greece HAS ALREADY defaulted, so has Spain- they can't pay their debts and they have stated so. "You want no defaults? Then pay my debts", and that's how it works. Just like Mastercard stepping in to payoff your Visa bill with a low introductory rate. "I don't care what you do, just don't send me a bill 'cuz I ain't payin' it". 

By not declaring the original loan in default, Mastercard can book the new loan as an increase in assets, and book the interest charges (whether being paid "current" or not "arrears") as PROFIT! Ah, and the sun comes up again tomorrow and bonuses are paid quarterly. Late charges & over-limit fees are booked instantly as revenue, stock prices move higher on ficticious profits, and did I mention? The Banksterz get their Bonuses......

Must Read CREATURE FROM JEKYLL ISLAND by G. Edward Griffin, your library has it.

Tue, 06/26/2012 - 21:58 | 2563655 andrewp111
andrewp111's picture

I doubt this very much. The US banks will hardly feel it -  for weeks at the earliest.

Tue, 06/26/2012 - 20:17 | 2563362 Xrated
Xrated's picture

I would love to be a gold and silver dealer in Germany right now. Seems like the Euro cannot make it without massive devaluation.

Tue, 06/26/2012 - 20:18 | 2563365 nmewn
nmewn's picture

"Similarly, talk of a fiscal union to resolve these problems has to be looked at in light of the question of whether it is in the interest of fiscally strong contributors to have a fiscal union with fiscally weak recipients in which the majority rules how the money is divided."

I'm sorry, did I slip through a wormhole into a Socialist Universe?

Tue, 06/26/2012 - 21:35 | 2563586 Poor Grogman
Poor Grogman's picture

The Keynesian experiment to destroy capitalism through monetary debasement is almost complete.

Somewhere in a galaxy far far away, capitalism, free markets and liberty may survive, but not on this planet....

Tue, 06/26/2012 - 21:54 | 2563642 nmewn
nmewn's picture

We will just have to slip into an alternate plane and stay in the same place ;-)

Wed, 06/27/2012 - 00:53 | 2564071 Brynjo
Brynjo's picture

Reply to socialist wormhole question:

No. He is saying the Strong WON'T union with the weak. Ie the strong find it unacceptable that the majority rules framework (or variant there of) would amount to the Strong ceding power. So they will not follow through on fiscal union talks. Powerful/Strong just don't cede control just to maintain good rapport with neighbors.

Tue, 06/26/2012 - 20:20 | 2563368 loveyajimbo
loveyajimbo's picture

Ah... at last, a guy who sees that there is no benefit to Germany bailing out the rest of Europe... those PIIGHS and france and etc... are so burdened by debt that they can't buy German stuff anyway... if the are allowed to collapse, then a major "re-set" occurs, eliminating most debt by default... sure, banks fail, so what, they are crooked parasites anyway.  then, released of debt, like Iceland, they respond with growth. Germany benefits eventually...

Tue, 06/26/2012 - 20:26 | 2563390 Ineverslice
Ineverslice's picture

PFIIGGHS

Tue, 06/26/2012 - 20:33 | 2563396 SwingForce
SwingForce's picture

...but Germany loses over $1 Trillion Euros in payments for goods already purchased by PIIGS, plus it loses all the bank deposits that has come INTO the country from said PIIGS citizens looking for a safe haven. Just like the money to Greece never went to Greece, these bailouts benefit Germany because the money rolls uphill. Its a delicate balancing act for them; a few billion in aid might reap 10's of billions in balance of trade payments.

And as long as bad debts are never ever allowed to default, why not milk it for as long as they can? Merkel & Schauble know the game that's being played, and I would do the same.

Tue, 06/26/2012 - 22:07 | 2563676 andrewp111
andrewp111's picture

There are compensating factors for the losses, and it might be an overall wash. If Germany leaves the Euro first, Germany's external debt is still denominated in Euros, the Euro gets rapidly devalued to a Drachma (>90% devaluation), and nearly Germany's entire debt vanishes into nothingness.

 

This evaporation probably cancels out the TARGET2 losses  that Germany suffers in a Ger-Exit, and cancels out some of the trade losses as well. Germany can leave the Euro with minimal cost to itself, as long as it moves FIRST.

Tue, 06/26/2012 - 23:10 | 2563831 SwingForce
SwingForce's picture

No, wrong answer. Germany has extended credit terms to all its trading partners. Time to reel them in as best they can before all 17, er 16, trading partnerz go bust.

Tue, 06/26/2012 - 20:51 | 2563476 rosiescenario
rosiescenario's picture

....if you have 2 nuts and one of them is cancerous, are you better off to keep both or have the sick one removed?

 

Of course with all the hypothecation and re-hypothecation, etc. the failure of the European banks is going to probably take down a couple of our TBTF guys over here; the bad news is that it will not take them all down.

Tue, 06/26/2012 - 20:22 | 2563376 SwingForce
SwingForce's picture

I would still love to know why he thinks the US is "deleveraging beautifully". I don't believe him.

Tue, 06/26/2012 - 20:36 | 2563427 RoadKill
RoadKill's picture

So far it has. I dont think it will continue once Europe blows up - but so far we have knocked 20% off total debt (mainly mortgage defaults and paying down CCs) and their is little inflation or deflation so far.

But we havent really faced a big bang yet. When we do keeping our performance up will get far tougher. Also we havent faced austerity yet, and eiather we have to - or we are acrewed in 5 years.

Tue, 06/26/2012 - 22:23 | 2563711 SwingForce
SwingForce's picture

Thanks for reading my comments. Total consumer debt is as high as it ever was. CC's are not going down, mortgages are not being refied, banks are not writing off bad debts of any kind. This is not deleveraging.

Tue, 06/26/2012 - 20:22 | 2563379 q99x2
q99x2's picture

I agree all the way down to my DNA. My ancestors come from an old town of noted celebration in Germany and in the 12th century my Great Great Great....GranDaddy and his relatives killed everyone of the Kaiser's tax collectors. The family motto is "Better dead than a slave." There aren't that many of us around today because the Kaiser was not impressed and came back and burned the village down and killed everyone and all of that.

If the Germans go along with the bailout banksters it will not turn out well anyhow.

Tue, 06/26/2012 - 20:46 | 2563457 Not Too Important
Not Too Important's picture

Respect.

Although, in the US our tax collectors now all come with illegal bullets, sawed off shotguns and mercenaries.

Tue, 06/26/2012 - 20:22 | 2563380 AbelCatalyst
AbelCatalyst's picture

You think?? I don't think Germany could be more clear about their intentions. Why do so many believe the Germans are going to fold now after 19 "emergency summits."

Listen: it is in Germany's self interest to leave the Euro and inflate their debt away without the consequences of high inflation. All their debt is denominated in Euros and when they leave they pay it off with much stronger Marks. It's a no-brainier decision and all they need to do is nothing, which is exactly what will happen this week, and next week, and the next week...

This is the real world kids! Everyone will operate in their own best interest as they compete for limited resources... Game over THIS WEEK!!

Tue, 06/26/2012 - 20:56 | 2563497 rosiescenario
rosiescenario's picture

"as they compete for limited resources.."...of course with China having a hard landing, that will free up quite a bit of resources.....which in turn will hammer Brazil and a few other SA countries.

 

I believe China exports between 20% and 30% of its stuff to Europe. Since most factories do not break even until running above 80% of capacity, that will create an interesting problem for China.My bet is that China lights the fuse on the inflation rocket first.

Tue, 06/26/2012 - 20:27 | 2563392 genr8n
genr8n's picture

Most of us are looking at this from completely the wrong perspective (the bailout recipients perspective).  This makes no sense if in fact we all agree that Germany holds all the cards. That's why I strongly suggest you start reading german newspapers, start listening to German politicians and bankers and stop all other data input.

Understand German thinking, German history is a guide here. They're not the type to suddenly cave in and change direction as the market hopes. In fact the very oppersite is true of Germany, they are more than likely working to a plan that will see things get a lot worse before they get better.

Once you get your injection of German character the picture becomes very clear very quickly.

Germany will set not cave in during the current EU Summit, it will be looking make an example of Greece in order to get movement on its demands for fiscal integration (check the German opion pols on what Germans think should happen to Greece). At the end of this process Germans will reelect Ms Merkel and Germany will be far stronger.

Tue, 06/26/2012 - 20:28 | 2563395 Frozen IcQb
Frozen IcQb's picture

If Germany does not step up to the plate, large US banks (among others) will fail.  The Fed and other central banks with banking interest and the ability to swap currencies will print and monetize. The tail may be fat but it’s deep, deep in the end zone.

Tue, 06/26/2012 - 20:33 | 2563418 nmewn
nmewn's picture

"If Germany does not step up to the plate, large US investment banks will fail."

Fixed & a comment...from my standpoint, I'm not seein a downside here.

Tue, 06/26/2012 - 20:54 | 2563494 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

you mean "if Germany saves itself" yes? yes?

Tue, 06/26/2012 - 21:05 | 2563518 nmewn
nmewn's picture

lol...it appears to me Germany can afford to save herself...for the right suitor to debauch her, apparently ;-)

Tue, 06/26/2012 - 22:23 | 2563724 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

a question of honor? REALLY? This is MONEY as STATE POLICY...the "defense of money" if you will. "We leave honor at the door" in battles such as these. And once done and henceforth..."the suitors will come."
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ekhvwzPcD64

Tue, 06/26/2012 - 20:59 | 2563507 rosiescenario
rosiescenario's picture

....or TBTF will be proven to be incorrect....as in The Bigger they are, the harder the failure."

Tue, 06/26/2012 - 20:28 | 2563397 Mark123
Mark123's picture

I don't think this is really up to the Germans....there are bigger things at play.  For the past 20 years or so it has been simple - borrow big and speculate.  Almost always the bets paid off and people got verrry rich in the process.  Now things have changed...central banks are handing out interest free loans, but there is already too much debt and the big players are likely taking their gains off the table.  The Euro was just lucky to come into being in a period of massive credit growth.

 

Nothing that governments do will change the tide.  Assets will become cheap, those who stay in the credit game (both lenders and borrowers) will go broke.

 

Germany should just go for a gold standard and hope for the best.  Likely the first nation/zone to adopt sound money wins.

 

Tue, 06/26/2012 - 20:33 | 2563415 AbelCatalyst
AbelCatalyst's picture

Agreed... Which is why China is hoarding unprecedented amounts of the yellow metal!!!

Wed, 06/27/2012 - 00:55 | 2564075 Ropingdown
Ropingdown's picture

Not per capita they ain't.  Not even close.  Won't be for years.

Tue, 06/26/2012 - 20:54 | 2563398 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

There's an Oracle breaking records? WHO! WHO! http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B0qZ4V53EV4 And what does a Who do again?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hKUBTX9kKEo
That's The Who to you
And who do The Who doo? Is it Voodoo?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9VzAKpPJTqQ
Only if you do.

Tue, 06/26/2012 - 20:29 | 2563400 RoadKill
RoadKill's picture

I agree with Dalio. 95% of the talking heads say Germany HAS to do XYZ because ABC is too bad to consider. As an investment manager if someone told me they hadnt run the downside case because it was too scary I would fire them, but it is what EVERYONE long right nlw is doing.

You have to run payouts on every scenario and assign probabiliies. IMO you come out with SPX at 1,000-1,100 being a good gamble. Total disaster scenario is <500. US recession is 750. US slowdown is 1000-1,100. Us growing at 2% is 1,200 and a return to normalcy is 1,400. We can debate about the assumptions but to say stocks are cheap because in a good scenario 15x100 is 1,500 and we wont even think about other scenarios is like a PM bug saying gold can only go up because central banks have to print - but being totally unwilling to consider a deflationary scenario.

Tue, 06/26/2012 - 20:54 | 2563490 Centurion9.41
Centurion9.41's picture

Roadkill, re: "95% of the talking heads say Germany HAS to do XYZ because ABC is too bad to consider."

Agree save the way your words lead.  They say so because if it does not happen they get whacked, book and backside. 

The turn, "too bad to consider", is way too gentle on these scum and sounds to the ignorant like they are talking out of some grave concern for society.

 

Tue, 06/26/2012 - 20:58 | 2563504 NIRee
NIRee's picture

A deflationary scenario would be a disaster for the entire globe. All the banks would go bust in a matter of months and after them most business would have to fire a majority of their workers or even file for bankruptcy.
There would be no credit and nobody would be buying and everything would be on sale.

It will never occur, unless it is the goal, but even if it was, how would the politicans get away with it under the current market reactions to stimulus?

How would the the FED or ECB explain that they could act to prevent or even make it stop but that they won´t?

Even in that scenario precious metals are desired since the lack of counterparty risk. They preserve value over time and when western people enter hard times they start to save for the future.

There are good reasons why the currency masters never opt for this scenario. They love their necks way to much.

If debt is the problem, inflation is the solution. A real "fix" for the soverign debt crisis would be to devalue. Obviously this cannot be done with a floating currency so printing is all that is left and all that they can do. Everything else is just a strategy for other things.

 

Tue, 06/26/2012 - 21:08 | 2563529 rosiescenario
rosiescenario's picture

"If debt is the problem, inflation is the solution."

 

Even if you are a banker, having a loan repaid in full during your watch, even if it is in fiat worth 10% of the value of the original loan, is far more acceptable than not having the loan repaid.

 

........and if your are the Fed, inflation is the only possible cure to your debt problem.

 

We are seeing more inflationary pressure during this reporting period as companies admit that they have not been able to raise their prices fast enough to offset the price increases in their raw materials. The analysts, as usual, have been asleep at the switch on that issue, so we will be soon hearing about "surprising" margin compression and eventually some "investors" may figure out that the market is actually overpriced due to that fact.

Wed, 06/27/2012 - 00:52 | 2564073 Ropingdown
Ropingdown's picture

As a banker getting your loan payed back at 20% value would be great IF you could lend it out again profitably.  The odds of both of those happening in one five-year period is very small.

Tue, 06/26/2012 - 21:36 | 2563588 mjk0259
mjk0259's picture

Japan has had deflation for decades. Didn't collapse. Currency keeps rising.

 

Wed, 06/27/2012 - 00:23 | 2564008 Clowns on Acid
Clowns on Acid's picture

mjk = idjit. Using the Japanese of the past 10 years as a proxy for the entire Western world...?

Idjit.

Tue, 06/26/2012 - 22:11 | 2563691 Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

Youre missing a very obvious gambit.

Mass QE by ALL the CB's at once.For simplification say $700tn.

The banks get the money first and scoop up all the hard assets before

hyper inflation sets in.

This is the type of move  I expect.

To save the children of course.

 

Tue, 06/26/2012 - 20:41 | 2563443 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Anyone who thinks the US is running at 2% growth is clinically insane. Use real math.

Tue, 06/26/2012 - 20:55 | 2563493 Rogier
Rogier's picture

With 2% inflation the US really is running at 2% nominal growth ;-)

Tue, 06/26/2012 - 20:59 | 2563506 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

yup exactly my point.

Tue, 06/26/2012 - 20:44 | 2563444 sudzee
sudzee's picture

Egan-Jones has just downgraded Germany to A+ from AA-.

Tue, 06/26/2012 - 20:47 | 2563470 Not Too Important
Not Too Important's picture

Ah, what do they know???

And I'd like to know who paid for that opinion. I'd put my money with them in an instant. Any fund that lists E-J as their ratings source gets my vote.

Tue, 06/26/2012 - 20:57 | 2563499 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

WTF?  Ray Dalio looks like a freaking soap opera star.

 

Another "doomsayer" with nothing positive to say.

I think people are getting tired of being negative.

Tired of hearing all the bad news.

Tired of waiting for something to happen in Europe.

Tired of sitting in cash earning nothing.

Tired of the market going down and always bouncing back.

Tired of the relentless bid into Treasuries (how boring).

Tired of hearing about the "Fiscal Cliff".

Tired of the "Debt Ceiling"

Tired of seeing gold and silver go down since Bernanke is doing nothing.

I bet people are about ready to start buying some stocks.

Tue, 06/26/2012 - 21:16 | 2563542 Centurion9.41
Centurion9.41's picture

Honey, I'm bet'n you're really a blond

Tue, 06/26/2012 - 21:59 | 2563659 nmewn
nmewn's picture

"I bet people are about ready to start buying some stocks."

How much?

Tue, 06/26/2012 - 22:29 | 2563740 SwingForce
SwingForce's picture

I liked your comments on Germany & Eurozone earlier, and will follow the scenario. In the meantime, are these the stocks people will be buying? Click on column headers to sort, feel free to copy...

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0An-C4NLkRQu7dGY5Z29hbHhOb0hMRUp4QVlmellONmc#gid=0

Tue, 06/26/2012 - 21:09 | 2563520 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

talk is cheap, but this does explain why tyler's last 11 months of QEIII calls have sucked...

Tue, 06/26/2012 - 21:57 | 2563643 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

Slewie v reallY  ?

Tue, 06/26/2012 - 22:52 | 2563798 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

9940 aud; i think you and tyler both called that

now:  did you have the yen this way or not?   L0L

  [it's not that i don't recall what you faded v the BOJ, but that i couldn't understand it in the first place]

if the answer is no, say hi to yer mom and tell her i think it is great that she tries to follow you on zH

and mind yer manners!

Tue, 06/26/2012 - 22:31 | 2563745 earleflorida
earleflorida's picture

Really now? When Obami's heathcare act gets parceled or totally shredded - coupled with the fact that new jobs created report has pushed ump back up to 8.4% the fed will QE III to infinity!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

jmo 

Wed, 06/27/2012 - 01:35 | 2564128 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

the FED will QE as needed to fund theTreasury

theTreasury is the goobermint checking account and it is controlled by the congo + the prez

at this point i think theFED wants stability and orderly markets

therefore we'll have stability, orderly markets, and QE as necessary to keep the checks in the mail (fund theTreasury)

as far as i can tell this is what is happening right now and this is also the plan for the near future for the US

there may be QE and a lot of it for all i know;  but it isn't planned, is it?  and yup, i read the same article that said that as you did about the unemployment trigger for QE to infinity  

but it is just propaganda at this point, imo

as it turns out, one man's regulatory overhang (rosie) may be another man's job description

let's see if benzelbub can keep his job against the right-wing attack on dodd/frank and the FEDs new job decscription

stay tooned...

Wed, 06/27/2012 - 04:19 | 2564278 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

if the congo is dumb enuf to pass a jobs bill, the FED will fund it

politics

the FED usta respond to the man-date for employment 

then, dodd/frank became law 2300+ pages of same to wit and henceforth the FED has a new job description which anyone who isn't an ignorant hillbilly can check into in about 15 minutes

the ignorant hillbillies read slewie and already fuking know the score w/ the FED

Tue, 06/26/2012 - 21:08 | 2563528 TahoeBilly2012
TahoeBilly2012's picture

The New World Odor (actually it's the old world order) seems to have always "banked" (no pun) on integration of the Eurozone politically, pretty obvious isn't it? The real question is the 100% "slam dunk" going to happen as planned. It still may, but I bet you they are as nervous as hell, they should have screamed "fire" when debt levels were a bit lower. They also never factored in the Internet crowd sounding them out (Ron Paul etc.). They are certainly cutting their "big plan" close to the cliff for comfort.

Tue, 06/26/2012 - 21:13 | 2563535 Centurion9.41
Centurion9.41's picture

Love Dalio, but I think he dances by the real issue.

The fact is, this is a dance of human nature that has played out before in history. 

The world has a group of people, the most visible representative of which is Europe's "Club Med" , that believe they are entitled to put into debt others and future generations to get what they consider their right to have certain things the way they want them; e.g. "retirement", "healthcare" , "education".

These people believe it is acceptable, economically and morally, to force others to pay for their wants.  It's that simple.  Hence the terms Ray notes.

The people that believe otherwise, are getting to the point where the only way they will turn over what they have is at the end of a gun.

In short, throngs of BROKE, ADDICTED, SOCIALIST PROGRESSIVES. 

These are extremely selfish people who believe they endowed by their creator to take from others for their own happiness.

Human history has proven time and time again, this will not end in an "orderly" fashion or well.

 

 

 

Tue, 06/26/2012 - 21:38 | 2563593 mjk0259
mjk0259's picture

Those people are in the majority in all European countries. They voted for it. So far they organized themselves to provide it. Even now, their financial situation is no worse then US. Compare Detroit to Athens.

 

Tue, 06/26/2012 - 21:43 | 2563589 newengland
newengland's picture

Ray Dalio comprehends. Few do. 

I'm happy that he is an American. This is an economic war, and he is American, first last and always.

Innovation, ingenuity, integrity: this is our foundation.

Tue, 06/26/2012 - 22:06 | 2563671 Cabreado
Cabreado's picture

"Innovation, ingenuity, integrity: this is our foundation."

It used to be.

The foundation is broken.

With regard to hedge funds, I have seen no evidence that they particularly care.

Believe it or not -- it fits perfectly in the equation that is our demise.

Tue, 06/26/2012 - 22:23 | 2563709 newengland
newengland's picture

Believe it or not  - it fits perfectly in the equation that the rumours of our death are untrue :-)

Slave nations whose Politburo or medieval rulers oppress them got lucky in the late 20th century. Their luck is running out as fast as their money.

Dalio is a true American: thoughtful, innovative, defiant of the old world order and any new world order eejit bureaucrats.

Tue, 06/26/2012 - 22:32 | 2563749 SwingForce
SwingForce's picture

Bullshit, he's a Vegas odds-maker extrordinaire and nothing more.

Wed, 06/27/2012 - 00:50 | 2564067 Ropingdown
Ropingdown's picture

Like that's nothing?  A good odds-maker on the Euro mess is invaluable.

Wed, 06/27/2012 - 04:00 | 2564268 Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

Agreed and odds-maker vs propagandist cheerleaders I'll always pick the odds-maker.

Tue, 06/26/2012 - 21:43 | 2563611 geewhiz190
geewhiz190's picture

in the weeks leading up to Bear Stearn's collapse there was sort of numbness in the markets. it was like everybody was watching soemthing happen without really stopping to think about where it may lead. bear was aquired by JPM on march 18th 2008. the final lows in the U.S. stock market didn't occur for another year.  now there are whole countries going broke and entire banking systems failing and it feels like everyone is standing around  watching something happen without really thinking about where this train of events will take us. truly quite amazing how out of touch most americans are with things.

Tue, 06/26/2012 - 22:34 | 2563756 SwingForce
SwingForce's picture

BS tanked becuz they were a hedge fund of leveraged mortgages... everybody else was in the same boat, BS sank first. Its not Americans who are out of touch friend, it is the sleight of hand of bought politicians that makes it seem so. The Banksterz have assumed control... for now.

Wed, 06/27/2012 - 09:57 | 2564766 geewhiz190
geewhiz190's picture

americans, by and large are completely clueless and don't even know who the "politicians" are

Tue, 06/26/2012 - 23:43 | 2563928 AurorusBorealus
AurorusBorealus's picture

Indeed, events seem to be in command of people.  There have been a few times in history where this has been the case... the build-up to WWI after the assassination of Franz Ferdinand comes to mind.

Wed, 06/27/2012 - 00:48 | 2564064 Ropingdown
Ropingdown's picture

It ain't just Americans, pal.

Tue, 06/26/2012 - 22:06 | 2563614 midgetrannyporn
midgetrannyporn's picture

Fat tail is just another phrase meaning wang dang sweet poon tang for the maggot usa bankstas.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qnMaSLCDxQc&feature=related

Connected people/institutions in the usa will not be harmed no matter what happens across the pond. Privatized profit, socialized risk.

Tue, 06/26/2012 - 21:47 | 2563616 flacorps
flacorps's picture

Europe is a macro tragedy in the making. Here in Florida though I can show you the face of micro-tragedy, fueled in part by the Great Recession. Many of you fall on the "more fortunate" side of the ledger. I would encourage you to help out a couple of less fortunate children:

http://landolakes.patch.com/blog_posts/the-head-on-collision-that-killed...

Tue, 06/26/2012 - 22:40 | 2563772 newengland
newengland's picture

Dear flacorps,

Doing that in New England. Best wishes to you and yours. This is our Republic, for better or worse. 

No one will tell me that my Republic is wrong. All my Republic needs is for good people to defend our own. Noblesee oblige.

Ray Dalio is correct. Some may dislike his analysis. They may ignore reality, but reality will not ignore them.

Tue, 06/26/2012 - 23:58 | 2563963 TNTARG
TNTARG's picture

Sad, sad sad.

I live in a country in which hospitals are for free as well as education from kindergarden to university.

The income per person on year basis is lower than the average for US citizens, which means... nothing in terms of life's quality. Nobody here needs to have money in order to get medical care or schooling. Little money is needed to get an universitary degree, no universities fees. There are, of course, private hospitals and private schools, which can be chosen by those who have the means or prefer that way. However, a State University is the best one by far.

I guess that's why we're not part of the "developed world": health, education, life are not yet for sale and are considered social intangible assets.

P.S.: We've never had a socialist government.

Tue, 06/26/2012 - 21:50 | 2563627 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 Don't assume I know, or care who (

Ray Dalio: ) is...
Tue, 06/26/2012 - 21:58 | 2563656 bob_dabolina
bob_dabolina's picture

What if...

What if we all woke up one day and ALL EZ countries were issuing their own currencies? All bond holders would be paid @ par relative to the country they were invested in the newly denominated currency.

Not saying it's gona' happen but...what if? Would it really be that bad of an event? Everyone would be paid with what they are rightly owed and countries could take their fiscal sovereignty back into their own hands.

Just approaching from a different angle.

Tue, 06/26/2012 - 22:01 | 2563661 midgetrannyporn
midgetrannyporn's picture

If they paid old debts in newly minted currency then the newly minted currency wouldn't be worth jack squat in short order. Weimar much?

Tue, 06/26/2012 - 22:12 | 2563673 bob_dabolina
bob_dabolina's picture

It would all be relative: 

Whoever owns Itallian bonds get's paid in Lira

Greeks....Drachma

Germans...Deutsche Marc

etc, etc, etc,

It's really a different view of the same pile of shit.

My suggestion, it would all happen at the same time.

Who's gona' buy PIIGS debt without backing from the Troika? NO ONE.

In my suggestion, countries can print against competing currencies and we can find the intrinsic value of  x country.

Tue, 06/26/2012 - 22:13 | 2563693 midgetrannyporn
midgetrannyporn's picture

I understood what you wrote the first time just fine but I doubt if any debtor country will offer one for one should it come to that.

Tue, 06/26/2012 - 22:18 | 2563710 bob_dabolina
bob_dabolina's picture

It's not working now bro.

I just offered a potential solution. Go game theory it.

Tue, 06/26/2012 - 22:28 | 2563735 midgetrannyporn
Tue, 06/26/2012 - 22:05 | 2563669 nmewn
nmewn's picture

You mean break up the cabal in Brussels?

Why, thats blasphemy!!!

Tue, 06/26/2012 - 22:19 | 2563712 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

nmewn   

        Your comments are direct ,honest, and well deserved.  I enjoy them silently.

Tue, 06/26/2012 - 22:25 | 2563723 bob_dabolina
bob_dabolina's picture

It's either break up the cabal or have Europe submit to a German Empire.

It's what eva to me.

There are two ways about it:

-German Empire

-Broken up eurozone

Take your choice.

1 of 2 outcomes is certain.

Wed, 06/27/2012 - 01:40 | 2564136 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

by when?

Wed, 06/27/2012 - 00:44 | 2564055 Ropingdown
Ropingdown's picture

No, that's a reduction in unprofitable overhead.

Wed, 06/27/2012 - 00:44 | 2564056 Ropingdown
Ropingdown's picture

No, that's a reduction in unprofitable overhead.

Tue, 06/26/2012 - 22:16 | 2563702 newengland
newengland's picture

Half a loaf is better than none :-D

Tue, 06/26/2012 - 22:15 | 2563701 Wm the Shrubber
Wm the Shrubber's picture

I certainly wouldn't presume to second guess Dalio, but a missing component of his soothsaying is the Fed's likely response to a disorderly EZ devolution.  The Fed will drown the world in liquidity to ramp market values in what will then be a last ditch death knell.  Apres Ben, then the deluge!

Tue, 06/26/2012 - 22:30 | 2563744 bob_dabolina
bob_dabolina's picture

I certainly wouldn't presume to second guess Dalio

Pussy. Tell us how you REALLY feel.

Tue, 06/26/2012 - 22:59 | 2563811 Wm the Shrubber
Wm the Shrubber's picture

I did state my position, and as to your "pussy" comment, I can only say that you are what you eat!

Wed, 06/27/2012 - 01:54 | 2564154 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

cut him some slack;  he just got outa rehab

your position is well-taken and i agree with it, propositionally:  IF there is a disorderly devolution

this is exactly why yers trooly slewie has been hammering the theme of the the FED's new job description under dodd/frank and that the markets are screwed down tight

i've never seen any appraoch to devolution this orderly;  here we are s'posed to having this crisis and the markets don't react?  this is the goldilocksCrisisTM and "just right" ain't happened quite yet  L0L!!!

Tue, 06/26/2012 - 22:32 | 2563752 newengland
newengland's picture

Buzz Bernanke...to QE infinity and beyond.

Meanwhile, the silly pets of politics will squeal like stuffed pigs.

Tue, 06/26/2012 - 22:30 | 2563742 knukles
knukles's picture

Who fucking cares anymore?
The party's over.
The fucking thing is broken.
The OBLIGATORY Kabuki Theater shall be played out, sometimes well, some times poorly
The world wide standard of living is going to hell
And will continue to do so until the banking system, corporate and  political affiliations and money are separated.

Until then it's all just spin and shinola. 
Shit and propaganda.
Pain and suffering.

Nothing has changed that matters nor is it going to over the next several years.
Period.

Are you gonna change your asset allocation because Germany says bye bye to the Euro, Britain separates from the EU, Romey ousts Obama and the Congress is Republican?
That there's another war or two in the Middle East?

Make any difference?
I thought not.

Tue, 06/26/2012 - 22:52 | 2563788 newengland
newengland's picture

Gold, silver, land, community. That is priceless, and everyone can join that party in the USA, our Republic, no matter what Washington and Wall St do.

If you are a nihilist, then nothing will save you, and you will save no one.

Tue, 06/26/2012 - 22:37 | 2563765 vincent
vincent's picture

Nobody here raising the topic of what the Squid and the other racketeers are doing to 'entice' Germany to step up and save the Union.

 

 

Tue, 06/26/2012 - 23:07 | 2563825 newengland
newengland's picture

Perhaps because it is bleedin obvious that the Squid and JP Morgue and their political pets are coercing Germany, and Germany says 'nein'.

Tue, 06/26/2012 - 22:38 | 2563768 Tom Green Swedish
Tom Green Swedish's picture

I really don't understand it.  All the countries know if they leave the Euro they will be better off in the long run besides Germany.  Why don't they just leave.  It's not like Germany has been doing Europe any favors the last century.

Wed, 06/27/2012 - 06:15 | 2564339 falak pema
falak pema's picture

oh my bankabankabanka burns and I lose all my pensions!....Rampage if bank contagion in meltdown, rampage if market burns you any way if you try stick it out. Blind alley for all of first world who loves fiat, not the car! Its ALL about banks, our fiat jerusalems!

We all know we are grecians, (since day one), but we want to admit it as late as possible! 

Tue, 06/26/2012 - 22:46 | 2563782 walküre
walküre's picture

Angela Merkel, ich folge dir in den Tod!

Angie, I will die for you!

26JUN2012

Angela Merkel:

"NO EUROBONDS AS LONG AS I'M ALIVE"

In other words, ESM only over our dead bodies.

100% of Germany will stand with Angela Merkel on this issue.

Tue, 06/26/2012 - 23:05 | 2563818 newengland
newengland's picture

Capitalism is about good money made by labour and investors.

Socialism and communism is about bad money (debtors) driving out the good; the State dominating the private sector, abusing and misusing the many individuals for the profit of the few corporatists.

Do not allow the French to guilt you. This is the 21st century. Germany: stay strong. This for the benefit of the many, not the few.

Tue, 06/26/2012 - 23:17 | 2563855 walküre
walküre's picture

Where do these investors get the money from in the first place? I can accept sweat equity as an investment but I cannot accept a group of so called investors who has stolen over decades and manipulated the system to their financial benefit.

Anyone can print money! Anyone can pretend to have something and create leverage on that something. Anyone can make loans 10:1 or worse and collect a percentage of everyone who is forced to accept the "investment" as real.

I prefer the sword over the pen. At least you do your enemy the favor of sending him to eternal bliss when his kingdom gets plundered.

Tue, 06/26/2012 - 23:43 | 2563923 newengland
newengland's picture

walkure,

Stay calm, and carry on. Right is might. 

Might alone is never right. We Northern tribes know this. Stay calm, and carry on. Germany: stay right. Calm and steady. Let others choose their own way and bear the consequences.

Tue, 06/26/2012 - 22:47 | 2563783 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

Dalio looks like a magician or a soothsayer in that picture, tough to tell him apart from the guys down at Magic Castle.

 

Meanwhile King World News is predicting the "End of the World" for the 14th time in the last 30 days:

John Embry and Don Coxe all squealing and screeching about the coming "Endgame"

http://www.kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/King_World_News.html

I'm watching my screen and the futures are climbing again.

Tue, 06/26/2012 - 22:51 | 2563789 walküre
walküre's picture

The future is bright and golden!

NIX EUROBONDS!

The best companies are private and cannot be traded

http://www.kmweg.de

An efficient and effective "Global LEOPARD"
The LEOPARD 2 is synonymous for internationally leading battle tank technology. The armed forces of 16 nations rely on its multifaceted superiority. KMW supplies these tanks as general contractor. With over 3,000 units delivered, KMW has achieved a globally unique commercial position. The LEOPARD 2 can be found in service from the Arctic Circle to the Alps and the Andes to the Mediterranean, as well as the Pacific, thus justifying its nickname, the Global LEOPARD.

http://www.kmweg.de/10894-bD1lbg-~PRODUKTE~kettenfahrzeuge~leopard2~leop...

Global death and destruction. Made in Germany, please! The world wants it. They will pay for it with Dollars, Drachmas, Liras, diluted Euros or whatever they have.

Tue, 06/26/2012 - 22:58 | 2563810 newengland
newengland's picture

Best wishes to Germany. Stay strong.

Tue, 06/26/2012 - 22:56 | 2563802 newengland
newengland's picture

Invest in real money...gold, silver, land.

Trade at your own risk in fiat :) Beware margin calls.

Tue, 06/26/2012 - 23:05 | 2563819 Richard Head
Richard Head's picture

You don't have a screen, and you're no trader dipshit.

Tue, 06/26/2012 - 23:13 | 2563837 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

" EASY There Pilgrim" <Me and my trading friends are calling ya all out?!  

    Don't get pissed R/H, trading is a loose term!  

Tue, 06/26/2012 - 23:12 | 2563834 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

+ majik casa, R_T

end game is screwed down tight L0L!!!

areUready4 the WS0Bankstering or what?

i was playing slots today and it was strictly end-of-the-month for the retail non-whales;  after, i bought some groceries and said hello to a woman i usually see at the casino:  didn't see you earlier...  it's the end of the month, she said..

next week?  oh!  sure!  the checks are in the mail

but this is austerity week for seniors...  QE is next week...

Tue, 06/26/2012 - 23:18 | 2563858 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

slewie/ Please/  No auto pilot?  The real Slewie?  Thanks

  No one is screwed. Time wouldn't exist, if that was the case.  ( FEEDkcab(

Wed, 06/27/2012 - 00:45 | 2563901 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

 oh, you are most welcome

the fun slewies in yer pumpkin patch would know what screwed down tight means as a symbol of ZIRP moMoney and fungibility flows

Tue, 06/26/2012 - 22:55 | 2563806 CheapBastard
CheapBastard's picture

Spain copies America's lifestyle --- "just don't pay"

 

Spain's economic crisis turns middle-class families into illegal squatters

 

http://worldnews.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2012/06/26/12370209-spains-economic...

 

Bunch of copycats out there...soon they will, "just walk away."

 

Monkey see, monkey do.

Tue, 06/26/2012 - 23:15 | 2563848 SwingForce
SwingForce's picture

YES!

Tue, 06/26/2012 - 23:39 | 2563914 Uber Vandal
Uber Vandal's picture

Fortunately, the Corporate Masters of the Universe NEVER walk away from contracts or other obligations either.

Tue, 06/26/2012 - 23:08 | 2563826 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 I hate " network TV", Does anyone watch Falling Skies?'

Tue, 06/26/2012 - 23:13 | 2563839 SwingForce
SwingForce's picture

Dalio is a MISINFORMATIONALIST for the beneifit of his own "5000 people" book, beware....

Wed, 06/27/2012 - 00:13 | 2563995 Stuck on Zero
Stuck on Zero's picture

Reminds me of a gal I used to date.  She wanted to get married.  It turns out she had $150K of student loan debt and was carrying $35K in credit card debt.  I had a good asset base at the time.  She liked the idea of a stronger union.  I walked. 

 

Wed, 06/27/2012 - 06:09 | 2564334 falak pema
falak pema's picture

so you're still stuck on zero? Home runs can be fun!

Wed, 06/27/2012 - 00:26 | 2564015 Clowns on Acid
Clowns on Acid's picture

Obama and his smirking pack of jackals are thinking..."Ok...so if Dalio's is correct and the collapase does come...is that good for my re-election chances?"

Otherwise...lets get printing.....

Wed, 06/27/2012 - 00:44 | 2564057 AbbeBrel
AbbeBrel's picture

Keep in mind, the former West Germans have been "bailing out" their East German cousins since 1991 with over a TRILLION EUROS sunk in reconstruction / porky projects:

 

A panel of 13 experts headed by former Hamburg Mayor Klaus von Dohnanyi charged with examining the reconstruction of Germany's eastern states has concluded the estimated €1.25 trillion ($1.54 trillion) in aid has done little to help the economically depressed region.

Perhaps even more worrying, the experts fear the €90 billion spent by the government each year is slowly destroying the economy of western Germany, as growth stagnates and the eastern states fail to revive 14 years after German reunification.

 

 

The "temporary" Solidaritätszuschlags (Solidarity Surcharge / "Soli" tax) is still in the German courts about whether it is constitutional.  Meanwhile the German citizens are tired of paying it and believe me will be resistant to paying EVEN MORE for the rest of Europe.

Wed, 06/27/2012 - 01:05 | 2564089 newengland
newengland's picture

Debtors rarely thank those who bail them out. The West is most fortunate that the deutschmark bailled out the ostmark. Germany is the economic powerhouse of Europe, and the world relies on Germany to be so.

Yet now the flunky failed rootless cosmopolitan bankster class demands more of Germany. Nein.

Wed, 06/27/2012 - 01:26 | 2564113 Bastiat009
Bastiat009's picture

A year ago, I was reading that the US$ was doomed, for good reasons, and that gold was the way to go.

This year I am reading that the euro is doomed, for good reasons, and that gold is the way to go.

If this year's predictions are as accurate as last year's, maybe it's time to stop making them ... although they may be correct, just wrongly timed. We'll see.

Wed, 06/27/2012 - 01:28 | 2564116 northwind
northwind's picture

Merkel says "no Eurobonds as long as I'm alive". sounds like she means it. take that you debt junkies, now what.

Wed, 06/27/2012 - 01:29 | 2564122 billsykes
billsykes's picture

I say fuck it. Who cares? EU blows up, EU survives, US blows up, US survives, in all times and in all of history regimes change. I am starting to think that even in 1930 there was millionaires made from scratch in every economic time.

I am just tired of living under this shadow of boom, bust and trying to time the bottom, if it ever comes I am just going to go about my business.

 

Wed, 06/27/2012 - 02:32 | 2564187 Gavrikon
Gavrikon's picture

Arrr!  I likes the cut o' yur jib, Matey!

Wed, 06/27/2012 - 02:42 | 2564200 newengland
newengland's picture

Yep. Smart people will outlive smart ass politicians and their paymaster gangsta bankstas.

Wed, 06/27/2012 - 06:07 | 2564333 falak pema
falak pema's picture

I'll drink chardonnay chilled to that! 

Wed, 06/27/2012 - 01:52 | 2564149 janus
janus's picture

yeah, yeah...he's of course right.

looks like germany won't fall for it this time...i can't believe they won't be shamed into bankruptcy.  sneaky huns.

sorry, periphary...it's a gonna be tough sloggin from here.

so, will this make the forth or the fifth reich?  janus is losin count. 

things will start happening fast now.  it's crazy -- all this shit unfolding right in front of our eyes.

history in motion.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=fvwp&NR=1&v=q7vtWB4owdE

what? over?/

nothing is over till we say it's over/

was it over when the germans bombed pearl harbor/

...cause when the going gits tough/

...we're just the guys to do it/

let's DO IT!!!,

janus

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