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Record 1.2 Million People Fall Out Of Labor Force In One Month, Labor Force Participation Rate Tumbles To Fresh 30 Year Low

Tyler Durden's picture





 

A month ago, we joked when we said that for Obama to get the unemployment rate to negative by election time, all he has to do is to crush the labor force participation rate to about 55%. Looks like the good folks at the BLS heard us: it appears that the people not in the labor force exploded by an unprecedented record 1.2 million. No, that's not a typo: 1.2 million people dropped out of the labor force in one month! So as the labor force increased from 153.9 million to 154.4 million, the non institutional population increased by 242.3 million meaning, those not in the labor force surged from 86.7 million to 87.9 million. Which means that the civilian labor force tumbled to a fresh 30 year low of 63.7% as the BLS is seriously planning on eliminating nearly half of the available labor pool from the unemployment calculation. As for the quality of jobs, as withholding taxes roll over Year over year, it can only mean that the US is replacing high paying FIRE jobs with low paying construction and manufacturing. So much for the improvement.

Chart below shows it all - that jump is not a fat finger!

And Labor Force Participation:

This is the largest absolute jump in 'Persons Not In Labor Force' on record...and biggest percentage jump in 30 years.

Chart: Bloomberg

 


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Fri, 02/03/2012 - 11:26 | Link to Comment boiltherich
boiltherich's picture

I am having problems too, slow loading, skipping around like it is constantly updating, and it has been doing it since last night when some fucktard posted a link that takes you to a computer killing infected site, one of those places that you can't close the webpage without a cold shutdown and reboot, even then I had to unplug the whole system to get it back up and running. 

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 11:31 | Link to Comment Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Thank you. I've been having problems all morning.

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 11:57 | Link to Comment lakecity55
lakecity55's picture

Coutesy of the DoD and NSA, no doubt. The Kill Switch must have an intermittent connection. Probably a cold solder joint. Carry on.

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 11:57 | Link to Comment Calmyourself
Calmyourself's picture

It's been serval days of hickups for my system..  Tyler's, IT needs to get out the broom and sweep some ad scripts out..

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 11:05 | Link to Comment animalfarm1984
animalfarm1984's picture

Just cut 10 million people out of work force before election and Obama will get an acceptable unemployment rate and he will get re-elected.

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 11:05 | Link to Comment animalfarm1984
animalfarm1984's picture

Just cut 10 million people out of work force before election and Obama will get an acceptable unemployment rate and he will get re-elected.

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 11:07 | Link to Comment Pemaquid
Pemaquid's picture

Stinks of desperation! One would think they could do better.

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 11:08 | Link to Comment AnarchoCapitalist
AnarchoCapitalist's picture

ZH is getting a shout-out from Drudge Report.

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 11:09 | Link to Comment catacl1sm
catacl1sm's picture

The change in population numbers from Dec 2011 to Jan 2012 is the main culprit for the decrease in participation rate. Throughout 2011, population increased in 100's of thousands pace, then a sudden jump of 1.7 million from Dec to Jan. A footnote on the BLS site at http://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cpseea03.htm#cps_eande_m03.f.1 reveals why. "NOTE: Updated population controls are introduced annually with the release of January data."

I would like to know what those 'population controls' are and how they changed. I'd also like to know what January's numbers look like WITHOUT the change in population controls. Without it, we're comparing apples to oranges, much like the change in CPI.

I also wonder if someone in the administration spoke to someone at BLS and said something along the lines of "What can we do to make things look better, at least in the short term?"

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 11:45 | Link to Comment Everybodys All ...
Everybodys All American's picture

Of course they did.

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 11:56 | Link to Comment Pasadena Phil
Pasadena Phil's picture

It was also pointed out on CNBC that the is a very large and continuing discrepancy between the BLS numbers and the Household Surveys numbers. It amounts to an overstatement of the BLS jobs number by 700,000 over the past 3-4 months. Then there are the ADP numbers.

I have a feeling those new manufacturing jobs were also service sector jobs who hired people to manufacture favorable jobs data for politicians in an election year.

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 11:10 | Link to Comment Alpacanio
Alpacanio's picture

Could this be mostly babyboomers droping out for SSI?

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 11:14 | Link to Comment Seasmoke
Seasmoke's picture

WELCOME TO WAL-MART

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 11:21 | Link to Comment Ganja Jane
Ganja Jane's picture

They "vaporized."

Cramer says cellphones, too: http://youtu.be/3xJkBc4fFWY

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 11:23 | Link to Comment The Count
The Count's picture

I get a kick out of watching the talking turds on CNBC say how the employment picture is 'improving' bla bla bla. Either they are so freaking stupid that they will accept anything at face value or the entire MSM is colluding with the string pullers in the shadows. Wait! That would be the same group of people, wouldn't it :-)

 

 

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 11:24 | Link to Comment AndrewJacksonsGhost
AndrewJacksonsGhost's picture

Another first for the Obama administration.

They just made 1.2 million people disappear!

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 12:00 | Link to Comment Money 4 Nothing
Money 4 Nothing's picture

With the NDAA S-1867 freshly signed on 12-30-11, your going to see alot more of that happening soon. 

Take your CNBC mug and stick it up your ass, that's a free prize too. 

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 12:34 | Link to Comment Silver Dreamer
Silver Dreamer's picture

Well, the EEA (Enemy Expatriation Act) is up next, and that will definitely make a lot of US Citizens disappear!  No citizens, no problem, right?

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 11:29 | Link to Comment Snakeeyes
Snakeeyes's picture

Gov't denies that >1 million people dropping out of labor force and says the +75,000 people actually entered the labor force.

Even so, the employment to population ratio is stalled at 58.5%, the same level as the Carter Malaisse recession of the 1980s.

http://confoundedinterest.wordpress.com/2012/02/03/unemployment-rate-drops-to-8-3-but-median-duration-of-unemployment-increases-to-21-1-weeks/

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 11:34 | Link to Comment ZeroPoint
ZeroPoint's picture

I wonder how many of those jobs went to the third world countries Obama has opened up to 'free trade'.

Pretty soon it will be a bowl of rice a day for everyone except the 1%.

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 11:35 | Link to Comment smithcreek
smithcreek's picture

There's a hockey stick I can believe in.

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 11:37 | Link to Comment Bansters-in-my-...
Bansters-in-my- feces's picture

Off topic,but if you want to see precious metals manipulation "pictures" go to kitco and look at the silver and gold charts.

Ps fuck off PPT.

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 11:37 | Link to Comment Zymurguy
Zymurguy's picture

Well, another 4-5 years of this and everyone will lose their jobs, fall off their UE bennies and the unemployment rate will hit 0.0%

Fucking Yeah!!!

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 11:43 | Link to Comment razorthin
razorthin's picture

Blow-off top alert.

A melt up is a melt up and the fairies are happy.  But let me caution you that we are still in the throws of a negative MACD-price divergence on the weekly IWM.  That may go away in another $2, but would you buy then?

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 11:41 | Link to Comment AndrewJacksonsGhost
AndrewJacksonsGhost's picture

The dreaded Drudge slowdown. I will be back to read other articles later.

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 11:44 | Link to Comment azzhatter
azzhatter's picture

Steve LIESman just called you a liar Tyler. Said participation is "unmitigated hogwash"

 

Please go do a beat down on that bald headed fuck face

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 11:53 | Link to Comment Money 4 Nothing
Money 4 Nothing's picture

LIESman looked just a bit too comfortable at Davos in my opinion, he is a shill sock puppet for the elite. Start telling the truth, your creds will improve tremendously Steve. Until then, your just a mouth piece, no pun intended.

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 11:59 | Link to Comment dwdollar
dwdollar's picture

Oh yes... Mr. "Bachelor's degree in English" LIESman.

He's had to know someone at some point and been willing to suck their dick. You can bet your ass on it.

His time in Moscow strongly suggests CIA allegiances.

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 11:47 | Link to Comment Park city skier
Park city skier's picture

What were the birth death plug revisions for 2011????

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 11:47 | Link to Comment Jlmadyson
Jlmadyson's picture

Vaporized employment.

Term of the year. Very Krugmanesque.

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 11:49 | Link to Comment props2009
Fri, 02/03/2012 - 11:52 | Link to Comment lakecity55
lakecity55's picture

It's at a point now where any real information on inflation, unemployment, manufacturing- name it- will have to be found on foreign news service sites. I read last week on one site where press freedom in the US had dropped to about 54th place; I think it was sourced from Reporters Without Borders.

With only 5 corporations owning all media in the US, Joe Citizen is under the control of Hussein.

And, the Stasi State continues to grow. The invasive security at the Stupor Bowl will include scanners, body searches, behavioral monitoring despite no known threats being issued by the omnipotent "Al-CIAquaida."

With the now obvious run-up to military operations against Iran by the Zionist State (and the subsequent attack by Iran against US interests), Hussein will be able to issue even more Stasi operations within the US, no doubt under the guise of "imminent Iranian attacks" within the CONUS. He may not even need a false flag op by goading the Iranians.

The only hope of Patriots is the Iranians will refuse to take the bait after an Israeli attack and retaliate against US bases or Gulf oil fields. That is the fulcrum upon which Hussein will proclaim the need to respond in force. I hate to see Iran take a beating for something they have yet to do. If you research their missile experiments over the last few years, they have been oriented towards and EMP attack over the CONUS. The hubris of TPTB are going to lead to complete devastation of the West!

I only hope all ZH'ers are preparing.

Sorry for some digression here, but the misuse of stats is just another example of how scary it's become.

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 11:56 | Link to Comment razorthin
razorthin's picture

Was watching "Nostrodamus Effect" on HC yesterday for mindless entertainment.  It seems that the "experts" have poo pooed GW as being the 3rd antichrist because his transition out of power was "orderly".  However, gnostic dumbass did say that the 3rd antichrist would usher in a 27 year war.  So we are in year #11.

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 12:05 | Link to Comment r101958
r101958's picture

Try Shadowstats.com...and here too.

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 12:12 | Link to Comment razorthin
razorthin's picture

For mindless entertainment?  So I suppose that coin on your avatar is facetious?  If so, you are mindless too?

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 12:54 | Link to Comment r101958
r101958's picture

You drank how much koolaid this morning?

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 11:54 | Link to Comment Ralph Spoilsport
Ralph Spoilsport's picture

ZH getting a link from Drudge Report is apparently worse than the legendary Slashdot Effect.

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 12:04 | Link to Comment Wtfcity
Wtfcity's picture

 I am still amazed that people believe this crap. All the people who are looking for work and can't find it are told every month how more people have found work because the numbers show this. Most that are unemployed still can't find work and don't understand why. They just can't believe its not getting better. It must be them and them alone that still can't find work. Your lying eyes! Wake the F$%k Up !

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 12:09 | Link to Comment alexanderstollznow
alexanderstollznow's picture

is there no limit to the bullshit ZH will produce in an effort to support its incorrect views???

the 63.7% is NOT the labour force.  that is the PARTICIPATION RATE.  nor is the 'number of people not in the labour force', the same as 'the labour force'.  the labour force plainly INCREASED. 

this:

"1.2 million people dropped out of the labor force in one month! So as the labor force increased from 153.9 million to 154.4 million, the non institutional population increased by 242.3 million meaning, those not in the labor force surged from 86.7 million to 87.9 million"

is just garbage.  in your own words, the labour force increased, but not as much as the population.  the fact that the total number of people NOT in the labour force has increased does NOT mean that anyone has dropped out of the labour force. der. 

if you were just stupid, i could forgive it. rather, you just spew out distortions and outright lies to suit your politics, and because you cant admit you are wrong.  that is just pathetic. 

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 12:46 | Link to Comment Money 4 Nothing
Money 4 Nothing's picture

U3 U6, Bonds and Baltic Dry are the best indicators of overall health.

(Q) In your words above noted, then why did the UE go down?

(A) Because they are not counted anymore and they are manufactured numbers moron.

They are still UE, just not collecting. Were not "making" more jobs, were shipping more Corperations overseas. Ask Jeff Immelt our Job czar that has an office in the White House. Big red arrow for you Mr.

Nothing is improving, it's all for a confidence psyop. Confidence doesen't pay for groceries, money does. 

Best advise for you, Stop drinking downstream. I don't mean to be so harsh, but their end game is taking us to war, period. worked in WWII didn't it? The world is broke and on life support via FIAT.

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 12:36 | Link to Comment Downed Drone
Downed Drone's picture

Need clarification: The Commisioner's statement about the recent labor report states, "...the labor force participation rate was unchanged, after accounting for the impact of Census 2010-based population controls."  That seems to contradict the title of the headline.  

 

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 12:56 | Link to Comment SRVDisciple
SRVDisciple's picture

I think there's a typo in the posting. In the sentence: "the non institutional population increased by 242.3 million" should that be "to" insyead of "by"?

-I swear if I ever understand most of what is posted on this website, I'll be a freakin' millionaire.

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 13:40 | Link to Comment JMT
JMT's picture

How does the author explain the 246k created jobs? Previous months also revised higher. No wonder stores have been packed here (in the Boston area ) even taking into account most of the college kids (the majority are children of the affluent or from Asia in the upper classes of income) but January is very unusual for stores to be so crowded on weeknights especially clothing stores.

Rents are also rising, my rent went up $200 to just under $2,000 a month and this is in a working class area on the north shore of MA. The property manager was telling someone that there are no concessions or promotions like 1 or 2 months free like they gave in 2009 and they had a substantial across the boars increase in the last 2 years due to overwhelming demand.
Again people must be doing well judging Fromm all the designer clothes , new cars, lack of available rentals for under $2500 a month

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 13:43 | Link to Comment New_Meat
New_Meat's picture

Deval's "Massachusetts Miracle!"  - Ned

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 14:11 | Link to Comment shahroodi
Fri, 02/03/2012 - 14:20 | Link to Comment double 007
double 007's picture

hell everything is fine dow up almost 150, all is well in oz!

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 15:32 | Link to Comment natew
natew's picture

At least provide some explanation of the numbers instead of creating dramatic charts.

Because there are key reasons...60+...the age category where the chart is being affected.

60+ In labor force (unadjusted)

     Jan 2002: 9.94 Million

     Dec 2011: 16.86 Million

     Jan 2012:  17.01 Million

60+ Not in force (unadjusted)

     Jan 2002: 35.01 Million

     Dec 2011: 41.02 Million

     Jan 2012:  41.89 Million

 

That's 870K not in labor force added from this one group.  65+ (babyboomer retired) accounted for 690K increase.

Now look at the 16-19 (no longer in holiday jobs):  Added 483K to the non labor force.

That's a total of 1.35 million people in those small categories (30% of civilian total).

The change is from older higher paying jobs to fewer younger lower skilled/payed jobs.

Of the 15 million added to non work force since 2002 (9 million were 60+, 5 million 16-24). 

The concern should be of the dramatic change in the 16-24 group.  Even more disturbing is that minority groups in 16-24 accounts for almost 65% of the 5 million increase in the "not in labor force" category.

 

 

 

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 15:37 | Link to Comment motionview
motionview's picture

By BLS logic, if everyone not working for the government would just quit working completely, they could get that unemployment rate down to 0. Lot of dead bodies but no unemployment.  Like North Korea.

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 17:32 | Link to Comment HANKREARDON
HANKREARDON's picture

Brian Westbury just publically pissed on Tyler. 

 

http://www.ftportfolios.com/retail/blogs/Economics/index.aspx

 

 

"A classic example is the Drudge Report link today to a headline and blog post by Tyler Durden that says, “Record, 1.2 million people fall out of labor force in one month…”
 
Nothing about this headline is true, and it starts with the byline. Tyler Durden is a made up name, an alias. Tyler was a character in the movie “Fight Club,” played by Brad Pitt. The character is a figment of the protagonist’s imagination, an alter ego. Maybe Tyler is Drudge himself?............"

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 22:31 | Link to Comment austin_817
austin_817's picture

Here are some more interactive charts for the labor force participation rate data released today that depict it falling off a table since the last publication...

http://metricmash.com/unemployment.aspx?code=LNS11300000&recession=false&from=201101&to=201201&period=&political=false

 

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 12:28 | Link to Comment HDelectraglide
HDelectraglide's picture

They don't call the United States of America the land of opportunity for nothing; every one in this country has a shot at the American dream, if they are willing to apply themselves.  Most people are poor for one or more of the 5 following reasons, usually a combination:

 

1. Laziness

2. Failure to get at least a high school education

3. Irresponsibility

4. Getting in trouble with the law

5. Drugs and alcohol

 

Their plight is generally their own fault, but Obama says we are supposed to feel sorry for them, and give them half of everything we have.   We estimated in the military, that there is always going to be 10% of the people who are absolutely worthless.  That applies to all of society, always has, and always will.  There are enough of them now in this country, to reelect Obama, and when they do, you can say good by to the United States of America forever.

 

The only possibility for the salvation of our Republic, is for people to get out in record numbers Nov 6, and vote against Barrack Hussein Obama.  As Ann Coulter said to Bill O’Reilly, even Jeffery Dahmer would be better.

 

If you want to save your country, PLEASE email this to every one you know, and hope it goes viral.

 

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 12:30 | Link to Comment HDelectraglide
HDelectraglide's picture

They don't call the United States of America the land of opportunity for nothing; every one in this country has a shot at the American dream, if they are willing to apply themselves.  Most people are poor for one or more of the 5 following reasons, usually a combination:

 

1. Laziness

2. Failure to get at least a high school education

3. Irresponsibility

4. Getting in trouble with the law

5. Drugs and alcohol

 

Their plight is generally their own fault, but Obama says we are supposed to feel sorry for them, and give them half of everything we have.   We estimated in the military, that there is always going to be 10% of the people who are absolutely worthless.  That applies to all of society, always has, and always will.  There are enough of them now in this country, to reelect Obama, and when they do, you can say good by to the United States of America forever.

 

The only possibility for the salvation of our Republic, is for people to get out in record numbers Nov 6, and vote against Barrack Hussein Obama.  As Ann Coulter said to Bill O’Reilly, even Jeffery Dahmer would be better.

 

If you want to save your country, PLEASE email this to every one you know, and hope it goes viral.

 

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 12:30 | Link to Comment HDelectraglide
HDelectraglide's picture

They don't call the United States of America the land of opportunity for nothing; every one in this country has a shot at the American dream, if they are willing to apply themselves.  Most people are poor for one or more of the 5 following reasons, usually a combination:

 

1. Laziness

2. Failure to get at least a high school education

3. Irresponsibility

4. Getting in trouble with the law

5. Drugs and alcohol

 

Their plight is generally their own fault, but Obama says we are supposed to feel sorry for them, and give them half of everything we have.   We estimated in the military, that there is always going to be 10% of the people who are absolutely worthless.  That applies to all of society, always has, and always will.  There are enough of them now in this country, to reelect Obama, and when they do, you can say good by to the United States of America forever.

 

The only possibility for the salvation of our Republic, is for people to get out in record numbers Nov 6, and vote against Barrack Hussein Obama.  As Ann Coulter said to Bill O’Reilly, even Jeffery Dahmer would be better.

 

If you want to save your country, PLEASE email this to every one you know, and hope it goes viral.

 

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 12:49 | Link to Comment HDelectraglide
HDelectraglide's picture

Obama’s Osawatomie Kansas Speech on December 7, 2011 primarily advocated the redistribution of wealth.  Redistribution of wealth is the basis of Communism and Socialism.

 

www.nytimes.com/2011/12/07/us/politics/text-obamas-speech...

 

Charles Krauthammer, MD is an American Pulitzer Prize–winning syndicated political commentator, and physician.  Dr. Krauthammer is probably the most respected and intelligent of all the political commentators on television. He said this article was an insult to Teddy Roosevelt, and it would be more appropriate to compare Obama to Hugo Chavez.

 

Do you remember when Obama said he wanted a “national security force”? Not the national guard, but a civilian one that has not sworn to uphold the Constitution? On July 2, 2008 in a speech in Colorado Springs, Barrack Obama called for a police state.

Here it is in his own words:

 

http://www.infowars.com/obama-just-got-his-private-army/

 

Why would he need his own private army?  If he gets a second term, will he have his own army..  Why do they feel that they need to monitor our posts on this website?  When will they knock on our door?

 

Have you ever seen the video of the officers of the Third Reich swearing allegiance  to  Adolph Hitler in 1934.. The oath pledged personal loyalty to the person of Adolf Hitler in place of loyalty to the constitution.   Sound familiar?

 

We are on the verge of losing the greatest Democracy in the history of the world. This election is going to be a choice between Communism and Freedom. PLEASE get out and vote regardless of who the GOP nominee is.  Turnout is the only thing that is going to prevent this from becoming a bankrupt Communist State within the next five years, As Ann Coulter said, Jeffery Dahmer would be better than what we have.  This is going to be the most important election in the history of the United States, and it is going to be so close, that turnout will determine if we remain a democracy, or become a Communist state.

 

Radical anarchists and Communists such as David Axelrod, William Ayers, Saul Lewinsky, the “Rev” Wright and other ne’er-do-well’s, have been grooming Obama to take over this country for 20 years. Is that what you want?  If not, PLEASE email this to every one you know, and hope it goes viral.

 

This has been endorsed in my facebook by an individual with a MBA in political science and History from the United States Air Force Academy. (Available upon request).

 

"Communism is a philosophy of failure,

The creed of ignorance, and the gospel of envy, Its inherent viutue is the equal sharing of misery."          Winston Churchill

Sun, 02/05/2012 - 14:29 | Link to Comment steelrules
steelrules's picture

Anybody have a graph of the retiring baby boomers? I'd like to see the corolation between those falling off unemployment insurance retierment and the size of the workforce.

Truth is no matter if the shrinking workforce is due to new census data or retierment it's still people going from paying taxes to costing the government money.

The system is collapsing, almost 11,000 people retire every day and will do till 2030.

http://www.babyboomer-magazine.com/news/165/ARTICLE/1437/2010-04-04.html

Mon, 02/20/2012 - 21:11 | Link to Comment neutrinoman
neutrinoman's picture

Keep in mind that all the unemp figures since the mid-90s involve dynamic modeling, not just a simple count or snapshot statistical sample.

The first dynamic element is the birth-death model, which requires month-by-month revisions. The big effects we've seen at the turn of 2009-10, 2010-11, and 2011-12 are due to the major dynamic adjustment, seasonal corrections. These are, in effect, an annual and cumulative adjustment. For example, as Tyler explained in a recent posting, the actual job growth in Jan 2012 was probably about 130K, not 243K. The discrepancy is all due to the cumulative seasonal adjustment for the whole year 2011.

There's no doubt about the underlying reality, though. Most of the drop in unemployment since October 2009 is due to workers leaving the labor force. And, no, it's not "lower workforce attachment among older Boomers." The labor force figure conventionally covers ages 16-65. It's "premature and unexpected early retirment of workers 55-65 living off their 201(k)s" and "20-somethings/early 30-somethings living in their parents' basements."

There's also little doubt that Obama wants as many unemployed people to leave the labor force as possible, as that lowers the headline unemp rate. The expiration of emergency (99-week) umemp ins helps that process along in 2012, as it did in early 2011. Such people just stop looking for work.

Wed, 09/26/2012 - 04:54 | Link to Comment wandybrad
wandybrad's picture

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