Record 1.2 Million People Fall Out Of Labor Force In One Month, Labor Force Participation Rate Tumbles To Fresh 30 Year Low
A month ago, we joked when we said that for Obama to get the unemployment rate to negative by election time, all he has to do is to crush the labor force participation rate to about 55%. Looks like the good folks at the BLS heard us: it appears that the people not in the labor force exploded by an unprecedented record 1.2 million. No, that's not a typo: 1.2 million people dropped out of the labor force in one month! So as the labor force increased from 153.9 million to 154.4 million, the non institutional population increased by 242.3 million meaning, those not in the labor force surged from 86.7 million to 87.9 million. Which means that the civilian labor force tumbled to a fresh 30 year low of 63.7% as the BLS is seriously planning on eliminating nearly half of the available labor pool from the unemployment calculation. As for the quality of jobs, as withholding taxes roll over Year over year, it can only mean that the US is replacing high paying FIRE jobs with low paying construction and manufacturing. So much for the improvement.
Chart below shows it all - that jump is not a fat finger!
And Labor Force Participation:
This is the largest absolute jump in 'Persons Not In Labor Force' on record...and biggest percentage jump in 30 years.
Chart: Bloomberg
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OBAMA
Long live King Barack O'robyomamma, rebuilding Amerika one foodstamp at a time!
Worse than Bush and that boggles the mind.
Huh? But they have created so many of these czar jobs and aides for Moochelle?
Sky high food and gas prices, declining wages or exactly what the ultra wealthy adore.
Talk about efficiently eliminating the concept of upward mobility, hardly a better way of doing it.
Stuff like this makes you seriously question the intelligence of those around you. People eat up the propaganda that the unemployment rate is dropping, but try explaining the above facts to them. They will stare at you like the famous doe in the headlights picture Tyler shares with us from time to time. The average person is so freakin' ignorant about how these numbers are generated, and trying to explain it to them is a waste of your time. It's maddening!
Markets are "spiking" on this news of ""surprise US jobs growth". It is incredible how thick people can be. Really is incredible.
Emile, most of the money that is goosing the market from the private side is not in people's hands. All funds. People are mutually funding themselves to oblivion. And with with-drawl penalties and tax implications, most cannot.
Don't know the numbers but I'm sure Day Trader and Average J6P trader hardly figure in the market anymore.
But here in India, the fog of lies is really really thick. We have our own Sen(less)ex 36,000 punters and a fool born every minute. Black Rock is here, Franklin Templeton is here, Goldman Sachs is here, DB, ING, Barclays..... Globalization, leaches!
ori
/san-onofre-33rd-parallel-4th-7th-feb-window-out-on-a-limb/
Ritholtz is over at Twitter babbling about how the BLS numbers are not fraudulent. Call it what you want.
Santelli metioned Zero Hedge on CNBC this morning....in fact, he mentioned this article.
It's entertaining to wonder who he is on here. We all know folks like him are here, and I suspect quite a few do more than browse.
I guess Tyler at al have never heard of working off the books. Everyone I know knows some who is working off the books. The grey economy is booming.
LOLstatistic of the day:
Wow. But Is the Number Real?
February 3, 2012, 10:13 am
By FLOYD NORRIS
LOLstatistics Moment of the Day, sponsored by JP Morgan™.
JP Morgan™ reminds everyone to eat their peas.
Correct me if I am wrong here, but arent they really saying we lost 243,000 less than this time last year? I guess only because there are less people to lay off now?
Isn't a loss a loss anymore? This makes my brain hurt
The more your brain hurts, the better the job government statisticians are doing.
Bernanke, Obama, etc., are simply fixing the "flaw" Greenspan found in his ideology, i.e., printing money is no longer enough to inflate mass optimism. Outright mass deception need also be used so the sheeple can 'make believe' all is well in serving Mammon instead of God. The upset of this false faith, when it comes, will literally be apocalyptic in scale.
Everybody knows the government lies and the TV repeats the government lies.
They are FUCKING murduring the FUCKING economy by not FUCKING making FUCKING loans to the FUCKING bottom of the economic FUCKING pyramid
this leaves the FUCKING economy under a FUCKING econmic vaccuum
there is no FUCKING money in the FUCKING economy
EVIL FUCKING COCK SUCKERS
And Harold Camping was THE false prophet. Get ready.
Wow! 243000 New Jobs Created in January
Wow! 243,000 New Jobs Created in JanuarySubmitted by Numerian on Fri, 02/03/2012 - 10:24
The headline number from the Unemployment Report this morning showed 243,000 jobs were created, more than the highest estimated increase by any of the economists surveyed before the report was released (the average expected increase from the economist survey was 120,000 jobs). The unemployment rate fell to 8.3%, again lower than predicted, and certainly good news for President Obama. Job growth was nearly across the board – in retail, construction, manufacturing, business services, and the hotel and restaurant industry. You can believe all this if you want, or you can go into the details in the report for some interesting context.
First, ever since the credit crisis of 2008, there has been a trend in the unemployment report that shows a declining participation rate in the job market. While a whopping number of jobs were created in January, a far larger number of people left the labor force - 1,752,000 in fact. The percent of the total working population who did not have jobs rose to 36.7%, an all time high. It’s no wonder the unemployment rate fell, when the denominator shrinks so markedly. The total number of people employed fell by 737,000. So what do you want to celebrate – the 243,000 who got jobs, or the million or so people who dropped by the wayside and are no longer counted in the data?
It makes you wonder how much faith you can put in the Labor Department reports. For example, the government, the business press, and Wall Street rarely report on the fundamental ways in which the US labor market is changing, with so many people dropping out of the work force. The press has had a hard enough time getting to grips with the Labor Department’s Birth/Death model, which over time adds to the number of people reported as employed. The model is supposed to compensate for the inability of the government to get good information on the number of new businesses created every month and which presumably add to employment. The problem is the model has been shown in the past to have significantly overestimated the number of jobs created by new businesses. Economists still don’t know if the model is appropriate, and how much of the 243,000 jobs created this month are the result of the Birth/Death model....
So even with this entire drop out of workers, we still are getting horrible numbers.
Posted this earlier but seriously, the job situation is still grim
http://www.dailyjobcuts.com
`
I know many people here in michigan who are working "off the books". However, I would not call their financial situation " booming".
Who produces these statistics? Government bureaucrats
Who do the government bureaucrats generally vote for? Democrats like Obama
What other statistic does this record drop in participation effect? The headline unemployment number
What effect does it create on the headline number? It is lowered
Who benefits from the hyperventilating media reports of lower unemployment? Obama and the Democrats
It is all a circular reference formula which is working and has worked quite well for the ruling elites every since our government starting producing these reports
Unemployment 8.3% for January 2012 - 243000 Jobs, Really?
- Economic Populist
...Additionally the 2010 Census data was incorporated into part of the unemployment survey which gives unemployment rates and demographic data. Previously unemployment rates, participation rates were based on the 2000 Census data, with statistical yearly adjustments. Here's the crux of what changed:
Below is a running tally of how many official jobs permanently lost since the official start of this past recession, with the new numbers. Increased population growth, implies the United States needs to create at least 10.27 million jobs or self-employment. This estimate assume a 62.7% civilian non-institutional population to employment ratio, as it was in December 2007, which implies an additional 4.69 million jobs were needed over a 49 month time period beyond the ones already lost.
8.230 million of the 26.87 million part-timers working low hours are doing so because they cannot get full time jobs. We cannot compare the change from last month due to the Census adjustments added to the December data. So, one needs to realize that's a hell of a lot of people stuck in part-time jobs who need full-time work.
The employment to population ratio is now 58.5%, no change from last month and at record lows. You have to go back to the severe recession of 1983, October to find such low ratios. The uber-low ratios are not a structural change, such as all families decided to have a stay at home caretaker, or magically a host of people could retire early, or magically all young people went to school as some want to claim. The low employment to population ratio are people dropping out of the labor count. Once can see this simply by the cliff dive on the ratio during 2008-2010. There is no way magically, suddenly, a huge increase of population volunteered to drop out of the labor force. These ratios are with the 2010 Census population adjustments incorporated.
These numbers are important because unemployment is a ratio, percentage or during a limited time period, the number of people actively looking for a job and counted. Many people are not counted in the official unemployment statistics, yet when looking behind the official numbers it's clear America has more potential workers and less jobs in so called recovery than during one of the worst post WWII recessions.
The January 2012 unemployment report incorporated many statistical adjustments. Additionally one cannot compare the monthly changes between December and January because all of the adjustments are added to the December 2011 data only, not spread out over the entire year, which makes a monthly comparison statistically invalid.
We'll be reviewing sections of this months unemployment report in excruciating detail so check back! Leave your questions in the comments and we'll try to dig out the answer in the BLS data.
Unemployment 8.3% for January 2012 - 243000 Jobs, Really?
- Economic Populist
He referred to it as a "source"....
Could BLS numbers be fake?
Is National interest at stake?
Could Kleptos lose power
If numbers are dour?
Does Summers eat way too much cake?
Sipping Coffee with Ben Bernanke
[Elton John's Tiny Dancer plays as Bernanke walks on to the set wearing a sweater vest and kakis]
[APPLAUSE]
Thank you!
[Smiling]
Good morning, and welcome to Sipping Coffee, with me, Ben Bernanke. Today we have a great show in store for you. I have some freinds stopping by; Timmah and Law Wrench will be paying us a visit!
[APPLAUSE]
First, a message from our sponsers....
[Camera back on Ben]
FEMA camps look like a wonderful place for the new slave class. It's good to see the US is still so altruistic.
[Ben walks to couches]
I have known these two for quite some time now. We participate in the same satanic rituals, go to the same country clubs, and all have great disdain for sound money policy. Join me in welcoming my friends Timmah and Law Wrench.
[Timmah, riding a tricycle, and Law Wrench in a clown car, enter stage left]
Please you two, sit down.
Timmah!
[Law Wrench Farts loudly]
[LAUGHTER]
Great to see you two! We last spoke during the sacred burning of the dollar ceremony. How have you been?
Timmah!
[Law Wrench farts loudly]
Great! Are you two planning on moving out of the country soon, or do you think you own enough land in Montana to survive the economic collapse on the horizon a la Don Rumsfeld?
[Law Wrench is asleep and snoring loudly]
Timmah!
[LAUGHTER]
Me too. We are going to break, but stay tuned because when we get back these two are going to mud wrestle in human feces!
[Tiny Dancer]
[APPLAUSE]
Indeed, the Tylers have arrived. I got to this article from a Drudge link this morning. Congrats, Tyler.
Drudge has the Santelli clip up right now. Looks like we have a paradigm shift in the MSM fast approaching.
Mish better rethink his favorite blog list.
And upon further reading, this article is on Drudge.
Hello Drudgers,
Welcome to Fight Club!
Remember, if this is your first night, you have to fight....
Don't worry. They'll shut down blogs like this if things get too bad.
Thomas,
I call it increasing use of fantasy and irrationality to evade responsiblity in the public/private sectors. Or more succintly: Mental Dysfunction.
If this is not the top, then it is the signal to go to ground.
.. but then again, it's probably time to go to ground anyway.
If they are cheating on the unemployment number, do you really think they aren't cheating on this number? Participation is much worse than what they show here.
Every number, every metric will be fabricated, every stop will be pulled out. Obama will have the Street, the press, the entire power of organized labor, federal government subverting every law, every custom, every norm. The RULE OF LAW is over, the rest is smoke mirros and window dressing for the end game..
Bubbles: We just mind our own business down here at the dump. Nobody comes down here fucking with anybody. I'm just bottling liquor... that's my job. Paid by the hour, no bullshit. Bottling Ray's Good Liquor. It's a dirty, sassy liquor. Ahhh... so sassy.
I'm partial to Ray's Liquor Sauce myself. TPB kills. It's help tide me over until the new season of Eastbound & Down.
Just another club on the dying horse.
What's a million or 50 mil? Tomorrow it will be revised quietly to 4 mil.
Never mind the old 99'ers who are probably all off the rolls by now.
Facts just don't matter anymore. As I travel business in the Northwest US are closing everywhere and people are getting laid off. There doesn't seem to be any improvement in the real world - but I must be on an island.
an impressive bit of statistical chicanery indeed
edit: interestingly, LIESman is on cnbs insisting that people DID NOT drop out of the workforce
His comment was interesting. The Census found more people.
What? Were they hiding under rocks or something?
Thank morons who watch TV. TV viewers keep these people in power. If you watch TV or pay for bcable then you enable it.
TV is no different from the internet. People can get Fox, CNN, MSNBC, CNBC etc on the internet.
sun tzu go back to watching tv you fucking moron
How can Obama be worse when he's simply carried on the same Bush policies?
Bush policies, obama policies.....really no difference. Totally agree. They serve a higher order of evil.
Bush policies, obama policies.....really no difference. Totally agree. They serve a higher order of evil.
I think someone would be hard pressed to find any significant difference between the policies of the two presidencies.
That in itself is increadibly damning to the Obama Administration. In fact, it is the worst possible thing you could say.
I'll play along.
Forget Obamacare and the 168 federal boards and agencies it created along with the uncertainty regarding adding further costs to full time hires which is already a staggering 35% over wages(temp agencies couldn't exist charging 30% if it was less than that).
At no time in the history of the world have US corporations hoarded cash like they are and collected virtual zero percent on it obviously losing to inflation instead of trying to invent the next great mousetrap.
Why would that be? A hint-fear of what is behind the neo marxist's door number three is a leading candidate.
Contrary to some recent lunacy around, economic expansion doesn't come from creating more grocery checkers and toll takers, it comes from the leading edge of the economy.
But thanks for playing.
Bush sucked but this is light years worse than Bush. Bush was heaven compared to this sh*t. John Corzine gets away with stealing $1.2 billion? Obama runs $1 trillion yearly deficits? Wide open borders. The Treasury being looted at light speed. Inflation around 10% or more. A servile media and press. Czars everywhere and they are accountable to no one. GM and other mega corps getting sweetheart deals, bailouts, frauds, free money. If Bush had one Solyndra, GM, Fast and Furious gun running or half the sh*t O has done - he would be impeached.
The f**ks saying there is little difference voted for the muslim.
yeah Fred, and Bush was light years worse than Clinton, who sucked but was light years worse than Dubya's Dad, who sucked but was light years worse than Raygun, who blew the deficit UP by sucking light years worse than. . .
normally I just roll on by you, and others who repeatedly post how the CURRENT FIGUREHEAD is the "worst eva!!!!" - all the while the WHOOSH of reality flashes over heads - but today, what the hell, I'll play your game and "reply" to your wailings:
what amrka has is continuity of governance - seamless, downhill pillaging of whatever can be disappeared while they can, jobs, homes, health, wealth, "resources" - it's a FIRE SALE and all you get is pay-per-view leftovers.
it doesn't matter WHO is "prezzydent" - they're all in place to give you whiners someone to hate, and someone to "vote out" while you spend your time campaigning, then waiting in line to "cast" your hope for change.
what the fuck ever.
Unfortunately he and his statists seem to be much better at implementing stupid ideas than his predecessor. Keep in mind I do think Obama's rise is all Bush's fault..
Yes, thats a very good point, and btw, I think that merkel is no worse than hitler was.
0bozo is Shrub on steroids and it's giving America hemorrhoids
Of all the things I thought Obama would be when he was elected, I have to admit Bush III was not one of them.
The recent numbers make it official. Romney be damned, Wall Street has their man, and they intend to cook the books all the way to his second inauguration.
Romney be damned? Hell, they are both Wall Street boyz. Heads Wall Street wins. Tails Wall Street wins.
LOLstatistic of the day, bitchez, courtesy of the Obama Friendly Floyd Norris of The New York Times:
Wow. But Is the Number Real?
February 3, 2012, 10:13 am
By FLOYD NORRIS
And that's your LOLstatistics Moment of the Day, bitchez.
Bullshit Labor Statistics (BLS) is doing its thang...
1.2 million working age people no longer have the honor & privilege of being 'counted' for purposes of tabulating unemployment + inherently flawed 'seasonal january adjustment' + a whole lot of temporary workers @ no benefits and minimum wage = turn an actual survey data of a loss of 2.6 million jobs into a BLS reported gain of 243,000 jobs.
Yeah....
....Recovery, bitchez!
Although this all started in 1913, this ever increasing decline of America started in earnest with Nixon. He understood through his advisors and cabinet members including Kissinger, that America was experiencing its first case of collapse. We were undergoing our domestic Peak Oil event, we were overextended in Viet Nam and we could not pay off our debts with gold anymore. So, he took us off the gold standard and floated the dollar as a pure fiat currency, which he was now forced into instituting price controls from the obvious inflation that came about because of that. We turned tail and ran out of Viet Nam, we began to import far more cheaper oil from Saudi Arabia and we went to China to open up trade relations with the very country that helped fund, train and even fought alongside with the VC that kicked our butts in Viet Nam.
And every president since has done nothing about this situation. Once they saw how the ponzi worked....how it kicked the can down the road so that at least for 4 years if not 8 each president that came after Nixon has not had to go before the America people and say..."Look, history has shown us that nothing is forever. Everything is born, reaches a peak and then declines to some form of equilibrium. We have had our day in the sun....now is the time to prepare for our inevitable autumn. Now is the time to....with honesty and a clear eye.....prepare for our decline to equilibrium. We can no longer be an empire. But we do not....at the same time.....have to be relegated to the dustbin of history."
So this is not an Obama or Bush thing. This is an honesty thing. And the American people who still elect, still choose their representatives are some of the worst on the planet when it comes to honesty and being clear eyed when it comes to our inevitable decline. The only saving grace to our national shame is that no one else in history was really honest with themselves and properly prepared themselves from their own culture's decline.
The Bell Curve rules all human endevour not the Wheel in The Sky. It only represents the eternal rebirth of the delusion that this time is different....that this time we have come up with the answer to finally destroying the Bell Curve forever.
The Great Ponzi is the Wheel in the Sky. The Bell Curve is Zerohedge.....because on a long enough timeline.....
Agreed in principle to most of it... (except this)...
And the American people who still elect, still choose their representatives are some of the worst on the planet when it comes to honesty and being clear eyed when it comes to our inevitable decline...
Americans just walk into voting booths... The DIEBOLD machines choose the representatives...
Agreed in principle to most of it... (except this)...
And the American people who still elect, still choose their representatives are some of the worst on the planet when it comes to honesty and being clear eyed when it comes to our inevitable decline...
Americans just walk into voting booths... The DIEBOLD machines choose the representatives...
Right....should have said....And the American people who still (OSTENSIBLY) elect, still choose their representatives are some of the worst on the planet when it comes to honesty and being clear eyed when it comes to our inevitable decline...
Fixed!
Here's a short video on how our democratic system works...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1aBaX9GPSaQ
"Maybe in Ohio...BUT NOT IN AMERICA" !!!!!
LOL !!!!!
Guy: Ookay, now before I execute this order, are you sure you understand the risks of stock ownership?
Homer: Absolutely!
:zooms into Homer's brain, with a bunch of people in a dance line singing 'We're in the money'. Curtains open, revealling a king-kong type creature. End of scene:
Homer: You heard the monkey, make the trade.
homr4.mp3 119kb
http://www.lardlad.com/assets/quotes/season12/BABF22.shtml
thanks Jumbotron, good to read a more "clear eyed" post. . .
I believe it is the nature of "voting" that assists in this delusion, the nature of "choosing" a side or a player that you can cheer and argue for - identify with - and then spend months arguing and trying to convince others of "your position" - it is a system DEVISED to capture attention and behaviours, it has it's own rules of engagement, and once entertained in the minds, it becomes habitual, an every other year ritual (Congress, President) that guarantees the participants a circus to follow - sports team model - and gets nothing real accomplished but keeping those who play PRE-occupied.
voting. it's the LEAST you can do.
Chocolate rations have increased!
Can someone help me find out where the bread line is? I already have my circus tickets......
Wal-Mart, 11:59 PM, the day before your SNAP allotment.
Better bring a tent and a sleeping bag, I heard the lines are long.
Walmarts new motto could be something like this "Give me your poor, your tired, your huddled masses"
oops, never mind I think that is the new FEMA camp motto
can hardly wait for the ersatz lattes
There are no lines. Now the bread is mailed or e deposited...
That's rayciss!
Perfect corollary.
Bloomberg joins CNBC in cheerleading jobs report percentage without speaking of 1.2 million.
Betty lu pom pom girl..... put a bag on your head and stand in the corner ex reporter
"It was the most memorable time of my life. It was a touching moment, because I thought this day would never happen. Iwon't have to worry about putting gas in my car. I won't have to worry about paying my mortgage. You know, if I help him he is going to help me." - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P36x8rTb3jI
Typical stupid two holer on the dole
How is this Obama's fault? Do you really think this would have been any different if a Republican was president?
True D or R this would have continued. The fact is that Obama and Bush both support counterfeiting false claims on our labor for the benefit of entities which are failing but closely connected with the government, therefore draining productive capital from the economy. It is good to be the king.
Hah, that's funny midtowng. When actions of the Obama administration become so outrageous and indefensible that even you can't support them, all you have left is the old "well the other guy would have been just as bad". Does that make you sad and reflective or is it just a defense mechanism to prevent you from examining your overall world view?
I've never defended Obama. I denounce him every day for continuing the policies of the Bush Administration. What policies of Bush HASN'T Obama continued? Doing the bidding of Wall Street bankers? Check. Continuing useless wars? Check. Continuing the assault on civil rights in the country? Check. Backing the same monetary and tax policies? Check.
You guys need to stop screaming "Obama" every time the government does something fucked up, as if electing a Republican would change anything (with the exception of Ron Paul, of course).
The really sad/funny part is that the Obama whiners have nothing better to offer except maybe someone with a birth certificate. Yeah, everyone should vote for the Party that can only think of getting a birth certificate. Credibility out the wazoo right there. America deserves what it gets.
Ron Paul would Never get the repubican nomination, never.
Had a conversation with an Obama supporter. I said I wasn't looking to debate her, but was curious as to what Obama has done different than Bush. Here response was that Obama has been better at diplomacy than Bush. So it's official, the majority of those politically active listen to rhetoric and ignore actual actions.
I'll be in the bathroom for a an auto-asfixia erótica session if any of you need me.
um
lol
We're yelling "Obama" because he's the one who is sitting in the White House. If it were McCain we'd be crying out his name.
Obama didn't inherit shit... neither does ANY president. They willfullyl paid millions of dollars campaigning to accept the situation and the position whole heartedly.
Has it ever occurred to you that the policies of which you complain may be neither Bush policies nor Obama policies but rather policies imposed on them by a small group you know nothing about?
In defense... I'd have to say that if my head were buried between the breasts of a beer maiden carrying a full mug of beer, not much else would 'occur' to me...
but but. . . does that mean my vote doesn't count??? that I've been wasting my time all these years??? oooh noes.
nah! you must be wrong. I'm SURE if we can just elect THIS one guy, HE could make a real difference for me!!!!
... trying to dilute and kill today's good news?
Only vampires are afraid of a little sunshine.
I feel bad for the majority of people here. It seems that only BAD news is taken as fact in order to re-affirm a person's decision to build a bunker and horde gold. The jobs number (as manipulated as it is) was astounding! Granted, the UE rate is B.S. and I accept that, however to totally disregard a 250k print is equivalent to sticking your head in the sand and chanting your mantra that the sun disappeared.
WTF are you all going to do if in fact TPTB actually inflated their way out of a crisis and pulled off the stick save? Oh I know, you are going to complain about that too.
There is a psychological condition that affects people as they age, essentially the longer you live, the more apt a person is to look at information and interpret it in a way to re-affirm their beliefs. This tends to push people further towards the extremist position on any given issue. That is what is happening here.
Tyler, I want to thank you for the perspective and information that you provide on a daily basis. Unfortunately I believe that you have lost your balance and may have 'jumped the shark'.
I will continue to read but only with the caveat in the back of my mind that this site is an extremely bearish tilt and needs to be taken with a huge grain of salt. At least Ritholz recognizes when he is wrong and tries to provide balanced data.
Oh, sorry, I almost forgot, everyone buy physical gold, bullets and seeds, bitchez!
You, dear sir, do not understand math, at least not exponential functions. And try peeking out the window every now and then for a look at real-world employment/inflation circumstances before the next generation is spun into soylent green.