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Is Ron Paul Taleb's New Black Swan?
While he does have some new philosophy (at X% off MSRP of course, coming to a Kindle near you) to preach, Nassim Taleb's re-emergence from the darkness of the media spotlight starts with a bang: "I realized that something wrong is going on, and only one candidate 'Ron Paul' seems to have grasped the issues and is offering the right remedies". He was given quite a lengthy period to proselytize as he outlines the Big Four problems he sees with the USA (and for that matter the world): Deficits (metastatic governments), The Fed, Militarism, and non-Bailouts (what is fragile should break early). As Ron Paul notes, "It's an illusion that the USD can bailout the world", Taleb makes many interesting, though a little murmur-some for our liking, points like "you don't gamble with hyperinflation" and his comparison between the US and the Soviet Union will surely raise some headlines as he rants of the growing divide between public and private employees standards of living, our "need to do something drastic about it" and on Obama/Government and deficit reduction that "the whole thing is rotten".
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A) CNBC video loading is AWFUL. ALways have a problem with the thing playing without buffer tilt.
B) It amazes me the lack of urgency that corporations/banks/governments have when it comes to Black Swan events.
Any poker player who has any worth to him has read, "Fooled By Randomness". Essentially, the math chooses you, not the other way around. There really is no such thing as a lock; and if there is, it is usually in the 1% percentile (One Percent....a theme this year, no?).
I mean, if a poker player like me can understand that I can get it in with AA preflop 5 times in a row and lose all 5 times (even though in the long run, I stand to be a winner), yet central banks and investment houses think b/c of government protection and corporate racketeering, they are somehow protected by risk....how fucked is that? Srsly?
The times like these remind me of Talib's mention in the book when he talks about how investors thought they had found a perfect hedge investment with Mexican and Russian currencies, where they thought after all their calculations, they'd at worse by a slight winner with their investments. Contrary to their models, things went haywire, and they went busto because they forgot one key element of "Risk of Ruin" theory: the probability of ultimate ruin > the probability of constant gain.
Didn't we learn anythign from the 1980 Soviet Hockey Team? The 2007 Patriots (knife turning typing that in)?
The people WILL dig at the plate next time. We are smarter now (I think).
Jack Singer: Do you know what a straight flush is? It's like... unbeatable.
Betsy: "Like unbeatable" is not unbeatable.
Jack Singer: Hey, I know that now, okay.
UUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM
We must remember Occam's Razor "the simplest explanation is often the most correct" or something like that.
Then we now have Obama's Anus which states "if you get in my way I will shit on you"
Sadly we are waiting on the varying degrees of the shit tsunami to envelope us all.
I expect Obama to get this next election. If he doesn't I'll be amazed.
Do not worry guys, we will win. Laws of economics are laws for a reason. These jokers will bring it all down before long. Just make sure you don't skimp on the gas masks and kevlar armor!
Ron Paul figured the bankers out long ago; it was in January of 2000 that he predicted: “Greater computer speed, which has helped to stimulate the boom of the 1990s, will work in the opposite direction as all the speculative positions unwind, and that includes tens of trillions of dollars in derivatives."
Speed Kills
Ron Paul will emerge back into the spotlight as the convention draws near. His support has tripled since his last run and he will be bringing over a hundred delegates to Tampa. He brought 29 to St. Paul.
And...what if...new scandals emerge to cripple the other Dwarfs?
You think there could be a black swan waiting for Santorum or Romney?
The rabbit hole is deeper than we can know.
Patience and principles, my dears.
I hope you are right because "dwarves" get elected by people with "pygmy" brains.
i don't pay much attention to any of these clowns, jim, but santorum seems to me to just be the obvious play offa mittens' major perceived negative
we hafta trust this candidate to call his own shots in a tough and extremely "quicksilverish" medium of opinion and political support
so, yes, i'm with you
sometimes, like in blackjack, for example, you're just damned if you do or don't, so rPaul will take a ton of shit if he fails, no matter how he fails, if that conventionHallDealer makes a fuking hand, here, for theHouse
but if the dealer can't make a hand for any reason, as you say, we're all republicans, now, BiCheZ!
plus, it is only mid-march and as we know, he can still call off the conventionDeal to get on the ballot by other means if it looks impossible thru tampa
let's get him on the ballot and let thePeople vote for him, if they choose
but bolting the party is his decision, and i for one, won't second-guess the man, but just let him play his own hand here...
the fact that that scares the living shit outa rebublicans no matter what, and democrats if he gets thePartyNod, doesn't bother me one little bit... L0L
Taleb just NOW had a revelation that 'something is wrong'? Gee what a guru.
Sheepdog-One, be sure you look at the video also and not just read the summary. The theme of the video is not that there’s something wrong; it’s that there is something right; that there is something happening; that there is in this dark night a fire burning!
Was I depressed by looking at it? No. It was an encouraging video.
So what is Tableb (or is it you Tyler) saying?
1. a Ron Paul presidency is the Black Swan, or
2. a Ron Paul 3rd party run is the Black Swan
Cause those are twin Swans from different mothers.
How does Taleb get a pass to commit thought crime on main stream media?
Is it me or is there a movement afloat that seems to be lifting Old Uncle Ron?
I just have to hope that the dumb ass Amerikan publik will see through all the other candidates bullshit and turn to the good Doctor.
it's you.
he's too extreme in his views on abortion and such for the left to embrace.
he's too anti-war and liberty minded for the modern day right at large.
stuck in the middle against more than half the US population on some kind of gov't dole, not including those with government jobs and pensions.
so yeah, RP is the man in my book. president, ever? i don't think so.
Unless of course the circuses and the bakeries close down and the people end up in the arena fighting each other as the main attraction.
do you believe that changing the Constitution to prevent a woman who is pregnant from making an informed choice about whether she can carry that pregnancy - that may be the result of rape, or incest, that may not be in her best interest health-wise, etc. - is simply a "right vs. left" decision, with "all" on the "left" being "at fault"?
and that she's ill-informed if she makes a decision not to support a candidate that will criminalise her behaviours, leave her subject to being "against the laws"? why would she choose to let someone make more laws against her right to choose what happens inside her body? why would anyone choose to be criminalised?
if the "right" is the anti-abortion brigade, and the "left" isn't - where on the continuum are you guys placing Paul?
and is he honestly representing all the people he seeks votes from?
what happened to the idea that those who seek office, also seek to represent the people?
and yes, I know none of this applies any more - but seriously, how hard would it be for a candidate to adjust certain policies in order to represent the majority whose opinions and votes are solicited?
theoretically speaking, of course. . .
(just for the record, not my down vote)
good post, jomama
but the reasons he appeals to the fringeTM are precisely his his elucidation of some of the key ideals of our future nation, so we try to serve them thru asking others to hear his voice and: can they hear it, too?
between theLeague0'womenVoters and the hot-button issue "vetting" of the MSM, maybe some are still free enought to realize that what 'the president' "stands" for hasn't been happening, at least economically and industrially for the country...
...so maybe we ought to take our nation back, one of these elections...
we love him b/c he's so dangerously grandfatherish
let's give him the football, BiCheZ!
"security" SUCKS!!!
ahh, yes, silly women-voters-leagues who won't let a "dangerously grandfatherish" man make a Constitutional Amendment that would open them to being criminalised should they want to exercise their freedom to decide what happens within their own bodies.
so kewl to be the fringeTM - cheering the footballz.
It is a sad truth but Ron Paul's stature will rise as the nation sinks. Americans don't really vote Republican or Democrat, they just vote for the status quo. I kinda like the cartoon of a bull in the arena which has a choice of two exits but both of which lead to the abbatoir.
My mother, who has been a democrat all her life and voted for Obama told me the other day that she is voting Ron Paul this year. I was completely taken by surprise.
edit:
Now that was a black swan event albeit a very minor one......
black swans with hellfire and bunker busters.all with time delayed debt fuses
even if ron paul becomes president do you people actually believe things will change? the presidency is simply another layer of indirection.....you guys are chasing the wind.
Much can be accomplished by executive order.
Veto power can block or delay legislation like NDAA.
For some issues, Ron Paul will only change the direction of the discussion.
True, plenty of issues will get bogged down by gridlock and a deeper recession will likely hit without more easy fiat money, but when we find the bottom, it'll be an honest bottom.
Just RP linking his policies to the constitution will weaken competing ideologies.
I know that Ron Paul is a patriotic American but wouldn't it be great if Europe or some other nation could buy him in the same way they buy baseball and soccer players?
Instead of having two technocrat prime minsiters straight from the bosom of the banks, Greece and Italy could have had Ron Paul guiding them out of their mess.
It's a crying shame that the USA has a diamond like Ron Paul and instead chooses to embrace pieces of dirty coal instead.
Maybe, America after all IS too dumb for democracy to survive as was stated the other day in the news.
the people of this country are asleep- and they do not want to be woken up.
unless it's for a new episode of the walking dead, and another box of girl scout cookies.
Public vs. Private ......the next civil war
roh, roh, DT Alert!
It should be patently obvious to all life with a pulse and then some that politics serves the banks and nothing but the motherfucking banks.
Don't like it, thank a bank. Have a complaint, direct it to a bank because politicians are fucking muzzled as is government for the people.
Nothing matters but the fucking fraud-banks and their network of fraud dripping with even more fucking fraud personnel and bullshit Inc.
End of story -- the people lost the war with corporate finance racketeering Inc.
EVERY CITIZEN FUCKING LOST ALREADY! NOTHING GONNA HAPPEN TO BANK-FRAUD AND TOO BIG TO JAIL INC!!
Justice is just a word, the poor and non-incorporated better get used to it.
One is amused that the largest most succesful HF mangers in the world (bridgewater, doubleline etc.) all have Hyperinflation as a possible outcome given the current fiscal and monetary policy in the US, yet the main stream MOCK Taleb and Ron Paul for bringing up the subject and possible solutions to prevent hyperinflation.
People really do suffer from a lack of imagination and intelligence (present company excepted)
99% of the 1% don't understand the 99%.
98% of the 99% are morons.
My friend Taleb needs to pipe down... his butterfly wings are starting to splash urine back on my pant leg. I don't print fiat to piss on myself. I print fiat to piss on others. This is the way it works.
Mittens Romney vs. Barack Obomber in 2012
It's a white Moron (I mean Mormon) version of Bush VS. an idiot half white, half black version...
of Bush!!
Children, Resource Allocation, & Currency Centrifuges
So, Fort Bragg CA has relabeled its dump as an archeological preserve, hoping to tap the global taxpayer again, through Fed stimulus, to pay Mendocino’s taxes on increasingly empty, levered up multi-million dollar houses it refuses to sell at market clearing prices, in a government foreclosure free zone, with nary a captain or logger in its so endangered species act, while its loudest politicians decry similarly recycled homeless impediments to their plan of replicating Carmel, waiting and waiting and waiting for someone to tell them what to do. Only a fool would plant a seed in that soil. Wow, East Oakland and Greece are not participating in the “recovery,” surprise, surprise. Keep building Hotel California on the sand of Silicon Valley as a model for global development to juice the market.
Children are not born projecting the empire through the mirrored behavior of self-reinforcing bias, which is why they must be rounded up and fed through its multiplexing filter, on their way to assigned unearned income event horizons per class. In school, the legacy kids are trained as bullies, to induce artificial crises, and the others are spoiled, to ensure that they snap to upon the slightest wind from these crises. Why else would a class of kids participate in bondage at their teacher’s direction, and superiors feign ignorance for so long? Sound familiar?
Government is an artifice, gravity, which has its uses. Natural Law ensures resource allocation to equilibrium, in a relativity circuit with diversity as a system given; it does not require a stadium filled with 100k people, or a written constitution. Government exists as a convenience to abstract out least common denominator activities, shared false assumptions of fulcrum position between legacy asset and organic income valuation, under test. Central planning has no productive effect upon resource allocation beyond that limit. You can tithe 10% of your time productively, or pay interest and penalties in the form of productive currency devaluation as government grows accordingly.
DNA, solar systems, and economies are vortexes, and the periodic table is similarly populated with false assumptions, but for sake of brevity we will employ the amusement park gravitron, which rotates the cylindrical wall and drops the floor, leaving most individuals pressed against the wall where they began. The bonds of the nuclear family emerging from the churn pool not only create the eye of the drill, but they also form the wall surfaces to eject the spoil, creating niche event horizons in the process. Because these niches are formed upon the foundation of false assumptions, their inhabitants cannot see the value of nuclear family.
Natural Law is a funny thing. Just when you are sure a course will continue, it changes direction, into a new dimension prepared implicitly for the occasion. The “error” corporate superintendents make is assuming that the current product, sail to trim, is the goal, rather than timing of new induction, trim to sail, which narrows participation to replication in a positive feedback loop to income disparity. Promotion is based upon accepting cultural false assumptions as fact and profit is guaranteed by the resulting symbiotic growth in government cost, until it’s not, in what can only be a rigged lottery of ponzi economic activity.
The universe provides the power. All you have to do is tap into it, to supply current to the gravitron, or not. When the gravitron slows, economies fall of the walls and back into the churn. Empire, government of governments, artificially expands headwind, not for artificial crisis, but for space, to provide trim on either side, turning one way with capital intensive consumption and the other with labor intensive investment, in a weather wave, which may be compressed at will, like a spring.
The problem for singles is that they are dependent upon government, which is compounded in the artifice of civil marriage, to define profit, which becomes a loss in quantum time when trim is required. Gay marriage is not a pleading for marriage, over which government has no real jurisdiction; it is a pleading for entitlement. Homosexuality is largely a function of majority rule. Equal opportunity is a function of intelligent individual adaptation. The only path to equal outcomes is turning downwind, increasing loss or profit depending upon perception, the timing of recognition.
Try as it might, corporate, which is an above-the-law criminal enterprise by nature, take a look at your History book again, which the empire employs at the beginning of each new iteration, will never influence the hiring decisions of real business, because the latter is all about new family development at the tip, and its root always resides within the black/white market of flux beyond corporate grasp.
Corporate is entirely dependent upon the replication of existing knowledge, which is sufficient if you can read between the lines. That ability depends upon intent. Are you looking in the rear-view mirror to maximize absolute individual return on shrinking access to natural wealth, or are you looking forward to minimize individual percentage return on growing access to natural wealth? A constitution merely grants government the power to recognize itself. It in no way impedes the direction of quantum development, and its incremental gravity works against itself. It’s an option contract, terminated at will.
The empire cannot deny your free nature. You deny your own liberty out of fear of the unknown, which projects the empire. The role of parents is to provide children with the necessary discipline, as the source of confidence to pursue the unknown. Children are born in God’s image, with no false assumptions, which is the spring of imagination. False assumptions are stepping stones in the trial and error process.
Relative government size is a function of parental absence in a feedback loop. The first thing kids “learn” in the controlled school environment is the peer value of money, in a Pavlov swap with nature, pieces of paper as the goal, to get more pieces of paper, which represent empire conformity. The last, if ever, is the physics beneath the surface. If both men and women are going to be working for a check to maintain the empire, the 40 hr workweek, which was based on one male breadwinner, is stupid.
The middle class employs inbred pets as status symbols now. At least they aren’t breeding children, or are they? Criminals are not criminals because they are intelligent, and, sooner or later, they break down the wrong door, to the strongest union on the planet, and the empire accounts are reconciled. Once you understand DNA, you can breed unicorns, but why would you?
A constitution balances majority and minorities, and the majority always becomes tyrannical, which means the universe will backstop the surviving minority, which will become the next majority, through nuclear family. The time to weather variability, economic inelastic obfuscation, “…so voluminous that they cannot be read, or so inconvenient that they cannot be understood,” determines when you will require a mechanism to clear the books. How do you want to employ backlash.
The bosses will call when they have had enough of stupid, which is usually after a war or when the universe begins to wipe them from the face of the planet with disease. If it’s war of tyranny the tax-exempts want it is war if tyranny they will get. Don’t employ German technology against liberty and expect a happy outcome.
It sure is a sham(e) that American's only have two paths to take, Dem or Repub. Even Ross Perot (and all his moolah) was not able to take on the Two-party race. Who wins? Not the people, that's for sure...
"...his comparison between the US and the Soviet Union ..."
the comparison is apt and has been made by many commentators.....the usa government by 11/22/63 was body snatched by the plutocrats when the bush crime syndicate murdered john f kennedy....
the same ruinous policies they persued in the soviet union they have followed here in america....militarism is indeed the cancer on the country and has been so since 1945....god help us all...
Next time maybe Taleb can stay away for five years of so. Doomerism has moved on ...
The American people are idiots. They will elect another rich cocksucker who doesn't represent anyone except the elite.
The possibility that some working stiff American, a guy that doesn't even take a Congressional salary and who represents middle America- why that guy must be nuts.
Where do I get off the crazy train?
Ron Paul pulls out ... runs as "independant" lowlifes Romney/Obama cant pull the required 35%...In a three way the next Pres only needs 34%..put a fork in the facist model...kill the TBTF banks..give me back honest counterpartys...