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Silver Explodes As DJIA Closes Above 13,000
After 22 crosses yesterday, and 12 more today, the Dow managed to close above 13000. Transports were lower but less so on Oil's modest retracement (though the Brent-WTI spread remained around $15). While stocks closed modestly higher, volatility and correlation markets remained considerably higher than would be expected and along with quite considerable relative weakness in HYG (the high yield bond ETF) into the close as well as a clear up-in-quality rotation was evident as investment grade credit outperformed notably (not exactly a high-beta risk-on shift). Apple's meteoric rise helped drag Tech to first place overall today and also YTD followed closely (YTD) by financials both up around 14%. The last week or so of slow bleed higher in stocks has notably not been led by a short-squeeze in general - based on our index of most shorted names - but as is becoming more and more clear, divergences (and canaries) are appearing all over the place but we suspect can be traced back to Apple in many cases for its over-weighting impact. Treasuries slid lower (higher in yield) after Europe's close but remain better on the week and modestly flatter across the curve. Aside from a hiccup around the macro data this morning, EUR pushed higher all day against the USD shifting into the green by the US close as JPY stabilized. The USD weakness helped Copper and Gold leak higher but Silver was the massive winner, now up an impressive 4.3% since Friday and 30% YTD as WTI lost $107 and is now down over 3% on the week. The IG rotation coupled with vol decompression makes some (nervous) sense heading into the LTRO results but it seems the new safe-haven trade is Apple (whose option prices are now the most complacent since early 2009).
12 more crossovers today and finally we get the much-heralded Dow 13000 close...
with stocks overall led by Apple (tech) and Financials both of which overall remain the best performers YTD...
...but while stocks limped along in a narrow range on 'average' volume, investment grade credit rallied handsomely this afternoon and HYG (the high yield bond ETF) sold off quite significantly (relative to the risk-on sentiment in stocks)...
...and while VIX managed a small down day, overall the vol trend is negative or less exuberant than stocks would infer - especially if we look out across the term structure and wings of the vol surface (and implied correlation)...
It would appear that the momentum-driven excitement has slowed this last week or so and much of that seems to be due to the short-squeeze fanaticism being largely wrung out. Our most-shorted index (in which we took profits) has pulled back to 'fair' with the overall market (orange oval) since inception suggesting much less squeeze pressure (of course that is outside of AAPL).
...and while Treasuries leaked lower (higher in yield) this afternoon and the USD also leaked lower driven mainly by EUR strength, the dispersion in commodities was again the big story with Oil dropping considerably on IAEA chatter and SPR rumors and Silver exploding higher on, well who knows other than high beta catch-up ahead of the LTRO perhaps.
Charts: Bloomberg
Bonus chart: Apple's option prices imply the most complacency with regard to downside concerns since May 2009. This chart tracks short-term and long-term options prices implied distribution skew - i.e. how different from a normal distribution are the prices of Apple's options saying its expected returns are going to be... the answer is - the most skewed to the upside (with little concern for downside) in almost 3 years. As an aside, the kurtosis (or fat-tailed expectations for long- and short-term are in line - often a sign of a trend stalling).
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Interestingly enough starting about 10 years ago I have been giving all of my Nieces and Nephews an ounce of silver every Christmas and and several ounces for graduations, and other big events. The older ones are well over 20 ounces and the younger ones are catching up quickly (they better hurry or I won't be able to afford them much longer). I think next Christmas they are all getting Ontario Machetes so that they can at least fend their stacks.
Loser...
I bought stocks in the 1990's, sold and switched to gold and silver in 2000. Buy low sell high.
Robot Trader,
I was at Jaws in Jan '04 when Laird was riding 65'+ surf, and I have reaped the benefits of many of Baja's finest point breaks so I can't ding you on being a fellow surfer, since some things are worth more than the value of one's stack, namely the value of one's stoke (something only a surfer could understand). But, if you retired 15 years earlier without a stack, you would have essentially been fucked since the value of your investments would have been overinflated in the stock market... unless you can say that you are going to invest the proceeds in a stack or some land, and lead to protect both, I can't follow on the market advice. Tell your nieces and nephews to start stacking the phyzz and to sell any SoCal properties they have for airable acerage in Chile or New Zeland so they can reap the benefits of their labor, and we will find allignment. Tell them to avoid Vanguard like the fucking plague, they couldn't access that shit if their lives depended on it unless they meet the third party requirements that keep them handcuffed to Vanguard's sack if they need funds in a pinch, but they could exchange the Phyzz for shit of real value if needs be.
So much for inflation, a quarter would buy you almost a gallon of gas in 1964. http://www.1960sflashback.com/1964/economy.asp
A 1964 quarter will buy you almost 2 gallons of gas in at current prices. http://www.coinflation.com/coins/silver_calc.php
I guess using precious metals as a hedge against inflation isn’t such a bad idea after all…
AC_Doctor
Silver protects us against vampires...keep stacking
Werewolves, not vampires.
What about vampire squids?
More wiping of the ass by Congress with the Constitution...
http://rt.com/usa/news/348-act-tresspass-buildings-437/
Surprised the CME didn't act....yet.
I'm 48 - not rich nowhere near it - I like to feel in control of my life at this point. I don't and can't trust gov't and banks to look out for my family and my interests - how can you. So you have to do what makes sense and that means protecting what you have - buy PM - pull some cash here and there - pay down debt if you have it and for GODS SAKE STOP SUPPORTING THIS BULLSHIT SYSTEM THAT DOES NOTHING BUT TRULY SUPPORT TPTB.
>.>
Looks at a chart of PMs over the last 12 months.
-.-
Yeah, you shorttermers keep yelling "yeah!" and "booh!" over and over, while for me and some others looking at longterm trends, it's just shortterm groundhog day again.
Rynak's proposal to shortterm traders: SELL
Rynak's proposal to longterm investors: If you're in for some risk, sell and rebuy at the plunge.... or you could just ignore this transitory event, and simply hold, knowing that as long as fiat does not implode, it will do what it always does to commodities.
A special olympics event should be created for goldbugs.
I'm special cause my gold tells me so.
Boy oh boy I wish I would have started buying silver and gold 3 years ago when I started trading. Anyways better late than never. Love the comments guys thank god for ZH
I know. When I started buying stocks 12 years ago silver was so cheap (I think 6 bucks or so), and I remember thinking, "Why would anyone buy silver?"
Doh
I looked at PMs at about the same time, and I am sick every time I think of it. I had some excess cash, and was going to buy some gold when it was $300/oz. I looked at silver, and gave a little snicker.
Then, of course, I found other things to do, and didn't buy either. Stupid. Got the same itchy gut feeling with the silver now that I did with the gold then, so I'm not letting it fly past this time. Worst comes to worse, I'll just have a shiny coin collection to show the grandkids someday. Can't get killed on it, because there's no leverage involved, so if it crashes, it'll be almost as bad as, for instance, buying a car for cash- don't need the silver $$$ to survive, and it doesn't require payments or maintainance, so it's safer than most things right now.
Still wish I had a handful of those $300 Kruggerands right about now...
Silver may protect you from a collapsing currency, but it won't protect you from FEMA camps ...and nuclear bombs if America invades Iran and Russia decides to nuke America (which they will).
Spoken like someone with no Silver, no guns and no guts.
Just curl up in the fetal position and maybe they won't hurt you. Pussy.
Sir you are a DOUCHE BAG.
You are both right. (Cranky and Clint)
But if Russia didn't even lift a finger to help their fellow Slavs the Serbs, whom they went to war over in Euro-Suicide 1, they certainly aren't going to budge over Syriana.
Moronic fool, those guns will never be used against the government. Why? You said it. American's don't have the guts. Nor the will. Nor even the interest.
Apathy will be America's undoing.
Why doesn't Sprott break the COMEX with his PSLV purchases?
Also, they won't say where he is getting the silver from. I have called twice on separate occassions.
I bought a couple hundred OZ of copper today.
I know it's run a lot over the past few years and faces some industrial headwinds, but it's great small barter, and you can actually eat it!
they are scared, BiCheZ!!!
Return to gold standard would be damaging, study group says | Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee
studyGroup = ponziAritists' "thinkTank"
here they are putting out that gold is certainly useful [4 uses L0L!!!] but CERTAINLY NOT AS MONEY!!!!
no freaking shit! who could make this up?
that's right! a ponziThinkTank!!!
Whenever you read/hear the words "good/bad/evil/damaging/benefical" and similiar, just ask yourself "for whom" and "in which circumstances".
slewie walks the plank!
kurtosis = buy out-of-the-money applePutz? you would not be complacent!
so bet apple down and how about an upskie for the "spread"?
how can we balance the kurtosis? how about some kenosis? Your Enemy Is Your Price Rocket Friend
By: Stewart Thomson
here, gracelandStewie calls a bottom in the realEstate market!!! he likes the ETF!!! so, i would say, buy deep apple puts and figure out how to play this RE ETF which the FED and related creeps keep talking about [as if they haven't fuked it up enuf, already!]
now if you have the money to play shit like this, why not just buy some nice silver coins instead???
HUH???
Silver coins are cool. I like'm. They are real and can be used as kungfu throwing stars if SHTF...
This shit is so frick'n fake.... 13k... LoL kneeger please..
It is difficult to give credibility to someone who doesn't understand the word "infer" as an expert. One implies, and we can infer something from an implication. So silver doesn't "infer" anything. However, it's recent upward price movement implies something.
Silver is up for a siginficant reason. It's place as real money has been revitalized due to the degradation of the dollar and other major world currencies. Sadly, the dollar degradation will not stop. The Fed is in for a dime, in for a dollar. This is their continued in place policy now, and the Fed will see it through, no matter how much pressure it puts on the world's reserve currency and steals real value from the world.
USGS just cut the element ag date of extinction by 1/2 year. Peak silver be slipperier than peak petrolene.......
http://minerals.usgs.gov/minerals/pubs/commodity/silver/mcs-2012-silve.pdf
Certainly seems to be building..and building..
GLD & SLV
http://sheepgetslaughtered.blogspot.com
Gold needs to break through the 1800 area resistance. Japanese Yen weakness looks set to continue. EURUSD yet to take out last weeks high ahead of LTRO.