This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.

S&P 500: Floor Breach, Breach, Breach

Tyler Durden's picture




 

S&P 500 Futures are picking up speed to the downside on rising volume which takes it back to its 50DMA (as we note AAPL has also broken its 50DMA intraday now). Has the market finally grasped that in order for the Fed to greenlight QE stocks have.to.drop and that frontrunning QE by constantly buying stocks ahead of the ramp simply will not work? We'll know soon enough.

Click for much larger image...

S&P 500- e-mini futures breaking through support and trendlines

 

but for now, the sell-off has stalled and needs more broad-based risk asset selling to continue...

Chart: Capital Context

 

- advertisements -

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
Thu, 05/03/2012 - 13:50 | 2394521 Starving Artist
Starving Artist's picture

But everything is priced in

Thu, 05/03/2012 - 13:53 | 2394538 Cursive
Cursive's picture

I realize fundamentals are virtually meaningless, but me thinks tomorrow's NFP is gonna be a market mover.

Thu, 05/03/2012 - 13:59 | 2394575 no life
no life's picture

NFP gets leaked every month, so yeah..

Thu, 05/03/2012 - 14:21 | 2394687 iDealMeat
iDealMeat's picture

Is someones head gonna get chopped off if the silver print starts w/ a 2 ?

Seriously fightin for that 30 mark.

 

Thu, 05/03/2012 - 14:27 | 2394717 tmosley
tmosley's picture

It already breached that a while back, but bounced back over.

And yes, there is likely a great deal of buying pressure below $30.

Thu, 05/03/2012 - 14:34 | 2394738 Tsunami Wave
Tsunami Wave's picture

According to Gallup, the seasonally adjusted U.S. unemployment rate is up in April:

 

http://www.gallup.com/poll/154478/Gallup-Seasonally-Adjusted-Unemploymen...

Thu, 05/03/2012 - 14:41 | 2394764 ndotken
ndotken's picture

The best investment these days is lead ... the round type that is stored in brass cylinders.

Thu, 05/03/2012 - 15:15 | 2394878 Winston of Oceania
Winston of Oceania's picture

More like insurance than a store of wealth; but one without the other is useless these days.

Thu, 05/03/2012 - 14:46 | 2394782 5880
5880's picture

or selling

Thu, 05/03/2012 - 17:15 | 2395236 A Nanny Moose
A Nanny Moose's picture

I resemble that remark.

Thu, 05/03/2012 - 14:00 | 2394587 q99x2
q99x2's picture

Algos are the only elements in the Universe that believes NFP numbers. You may be right.

Side note: from CNBC: "Milken is perpetually bullish on America" (possible partial reason behind Hendry's 1982 statement plus I think he invests in US agriculture for his customers)

Thu, 05/03/2012 - 14:01 | 2394594 GenX Investor
GenX Investor's picture

Look at the beautiful HNS pattern...

Thu, 05/03/2012 - 14:22 | 2394694 Manthong
Manthong's picture

Looks like a Mountain of Green in the middle.

Maybe it is a harbinger of some type.. 

I sense a bit of a face there too, but I wouln't make book on it.

Thu, 05/03/2012 - 14:21 | 2394695 Carl Spackler
Carl Spackler's picture

Concur.

The neckline was broken...and down it plunged.

Thu, 05/03/2012 - 14:55 | 2394814 q99x2
q99x2's picture

USArmy Internment Procedures.pdf

Every economist should read this before making a forecast based on the economy. It should bear some weight on their advice.

Thu, 05/03/2012 - 21:35 | 2395646 Buck Johnson
Buck Johnson's picture

Big time, because the market has been really weird this week.  Like it's waiting for the big dump.

Thu, 05/03/2012 - 14:02 | 2394591 Ruffcut
Ruffcut's picture

The dow is still over 13 again, so they don't think most people give two shits in the wind. MOst are worried, for they don't want the ponzi to fail.

Face it, most everyone is bonded to this bitch in one form or another.

The more you know does not seem to help in finding if there is any fucking thing you can do about it.

Meeting fucking over. Have a cold beer, relax a little and say "fuck it".

Thu, 05/03/2012 - 14:28 | 2394659 Betty Swallsack
Betty Swallsack's picture

PPT! PPT! PPT!  Yeaaaa, PPT!

http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=205513

Thu, 05/03/2012 - 14:09 | 2394634 battle axe
battle axe's picture

It is all Meredith Whitney's fault! She said banks are going to "struggle" next quarter..../sarc

Thu, 05/03/2012 - 14:14 | 2394665 robertocarlos
robertocarlos's picture

Who cares what she says, she's hot!.../sarc

Thu, 05/03/2012 - 15:19 | 2394888 mr1963
mr1963's picture

Everything will be down by Monday. The CFTC has raised margin on member by 35%, the CME issued the memo yesterday, it'll take effect Monday. The got rid of the member break. If I read it right, every bank in the US trading derivatives will need to come up with 35% more capital to trade.

Thu, 05/03/2012 - 13:51 | 2394531 Cursive
Cursive's picture

Let it rain.

Thu, 05/03/2012 - 13:52 | 2394533 It is a bargin ...
It is a bargin my friend's picture

DANGER WILL ROBINSON DANGER

Thu, 05/03/2012 - 13:53 | 2394536 5880
5880's picture

that chart looks like something,

A guy?

A head?

Thu, 05/03/2012 - 13:55 | 2394552 vintageyz
vintageyz's picture

Fat "person" on their back.

Thu, 05/03/2012 - 13:57 | 2394573 5880
5880's picture

I was implying H&S

Or Prell?

Thu, 05/03/2012 - 14:33 | 2394736 matt_chart
matt_chart's picture

Hey guys you can learn how to read charts here.

 

Training Video: Support And Resistance http://stocklegends.com/technical-trading/support-and-resistance/

Training Video: Understanding Trends http://stocklegends.com/technical-trading/understanding-trends/

Training Video: Stock Volume As Reverse Indicator http://stocklegends.com/technical-trading/stock-volume-as-reverse-indicator/

Training Video: Using The MACD Indicator http://stocklegends.com/macd/

Training Video: Using The RSI Indicator http://stocklegends.com/trading-with-the-rsi/

Thu, 05/03/2012 - 14:48 | 2394791 5880
5880's picture

Thanks Mr. Maddoff!

Thu, 05/03/2012 - 16:00 | 2395008 Manthong
Manthong's picture

That chart reading stuff is as important in this market as are the fundamentals.

Thu, 05/03/2012 - 13:53 | 2394540 sbenard
sbenard's picture

Yeah!

Thu, 05/03/2012 - 13:54 | 2394547 tu-ne-cede-malis
tu-ne-cede-malis's picture

QE to infinity!

Thu, 05/03/2012 - 13:57 | 2394564 unrulian
unrulian's picture

...and Beyond

Thu, 05/03/2012 - 13:57 | 2394561 carbonmutant
carbonmutant's picture

The French and Greek elections this weekend aren't going to help on Monday.

Thu, 05/03/2012 - 14:10 | 2394645 WAMO556
WAMO556's picture

Is monday a bank holiday???

Thu, 05/03/2012 - 13:57 | 2394565 Beam Me Up Scotty
Beam Me Up Scotty's picture

PULL UP!!  WHOOOP WHOOOP!!!  PULL UP!!! WHOOOP WHOOOP!!

Thu, 05/03/2012 - 13:57 | 2394566 Bill D. Cat
Bill D. Cat's picture

Huge pucker factor on the NFP in play .

Thu, 05/03/2012 - 13:58 | 2394569 unrulian
unrulian's picture

....nothing is going to help on Monday

Thu, 05/03/2012 - 13:58 | 2394570 crawl
crawl's picture

You mean this isn't a fat finger order entry mistake?

Thu, 05/03/2012 - 14:00 | 2394581 urbanelf
urbanelf's picture

Jeethner!  Save us!

Thu, 05/03/2012 - 14:02 | 2394593 Cdad
Cdad's picture

Well...it is about time.  Good grief, there are equity blood baths going on all over the market, and just about every single company that has reported has promptly sold off.

Of course, the SPY is always the last to figure anything out...as the synthetic buyer of every last dumb ass position taken on by the dip buying gang.

Front month VIX futures above 18.63 is a bit of a breakout on the near term chart.  VIX could put on a show here...

Thu, 05/03/2012 - 14:02 | 2394596 Rock the Casbah
Rock the Casbah's picture

Bullish!

Thu, 05/03/2012 - 14:02 | 2394597 realtick
realtick's picture

DJIA Top = 13,330.30 on May Day

http://i50.tinypic.com/2crk9bs.png

 

Thu, 05/03/2012 - 14:02 | 2394599 Vince Clortho
Vince Clortho's picture

One of the greatest ramp-ups in Stock Market History over the last few months on the expectation of more printing by the Fed.  If Bernank even speaks a sentence that contains the letters "Q" and "E", the market takes off like a Jack Rabbit on steroids.

Thu, 05/03/2012 - 14:02 | 2394601 fuu
fuu's picture

Below the hard deck doesn't count.

Thu, 05/03/2012 - 14:05 | 2394609 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

the banker coup is complete. there is zero downside risk in the stock market. disclaimer: the last time i made that statement was in 2008.

Thu, 05/03/2012 - 14:06 | 2394612 carbonmutant
carbonmutant's picture

Time to start rearranging those deck chairs...

Thu, 05/03/2012 - 14:06 | 2394615 CryingBear
CryingBear's picture

GET OUT OF GLD NOW. IT IS ABOUT TO FAIL INVERSE HNS

Thu, 05/03/2012 - 14:51 | 2394798 5880
5880's picture

ummm, no it doesn't

it's pushing the MA's

Thu, 05/03/2012 - 14:07 | 2394621 Piranha
Piranha's picture

looks flashy

Thu, 05/03/2012 - 14:06 | 2394622 junkyardjack
junkyardjack's picture

Roh no Rhaggy, Rooks rike a rhost

Thu, 05/03/2012 - 14:06 | 2394626 Roy T
Roy T's picture

My favorite CNBC explanation, as just expressed by Bob Pisani, for a bearish number like the retail sales comp of today/claims/etc.  "These numbers are just lets wait until next week/month before we make anything of it"  Anything bullish is a sign of an economy roaring to life. 

Thu, 05/03/2012 - 14:14 | 2394663 chunga
chunga's picture

Any type of pullback (real or fake) is "sensible" and "cautiously optimistic".

LOL!

Thu, 05/03/2012 - 14:08 | 2394632 Centurion9.41
Centurion9.41's picture

They know the BLS is going to come out with some BS [bad sh1t]

Thu, 05/03/2012 - 14:12 | 2394639 bankrun
bankrun's picture

What does anyone know about these folks? Think "customer funds are segregated?"

NASDAQ:PNSN

May '11 to May '12: -92%

Penson Worldwide, Inc. (PWI) is a holding company. The Company is a provider of a range of critical securities and futures processing infrastructure products and services to the global financial services industry. The Company’s products and services include securities and futures clearing and execution, financing and cash management technology and other related offerings. The Company conducts business, through its wholly owned subsidiary SAI Holdings, Inc. (SAI). SAI conducts business, through its principal direct and indirect operating subsidiaries, Penson Financial Services, Inc. (PFSI), Penson Financial Services Canada Inc. (PFSC), Penson Financial Services Ltd. (PFSL), Nexa Technologies, Inc. (Nexa), Penson Futures, Penson Asia Limited (Penson Asia) and Penson Financial Services Australia Pty Ltd (PFSA). In November 2011, the Company sold its Australian operation to BNY Mellon Company.

Thu, 05/03/2012 - 14:46 | 2394783 niktamere
niktamere's picture

oh you rread that traders blog too huh

Thu, 05/03/2012 - 15:02 | 2394840 aerojet
aerojet's picture

It's only MF Global style if the person in charge decides to illegally mix customer accounts with company accounts.  That was the crime that took place at MF Global, not that the company collapsed.

Thu, 05/03/2012 - 14:12 | 2394655 HyperLazy
HyperLazy's picture

I got home just in time to clear the position I took at yesterday's tippy top. +7%, aw yeah boi!

Now I just gotta hang loose for the afternoon ramp up and pick it up again. LOL

Thu, 05/03/2012 - 14:37 | 2394748 HyperLazy
HyperLazy's picture

Aw, I got my first pair of junks... But hey, its no secret. From time to time I flip UVXY and XIV depending on circumstance, bullish or bearish. Hey junkers, hope you didn't leverage the family jewels on Green Mountain. HAHA

Thu, 05/03/2012 - 14:59 | 2394826 RoadKill
RoadKill's picture

Im gonnna take at stab at GMCR if I can get it under $25. At that point you are paying 10x the revised guidance. But Itll be a small bet for now. Maybe 1% of the portfolio. I gotta have SOMETHING long to balance out TZA SMDD VXX and FAZ.

Is that idiotic? It has to bounce once Fidellity is done dumping doesnt it?

Thu, 05/03/2012 - 15:31 | 2394917 HyperLazy
HyperLazy's picture

I wouldn't recommend anyone touch GMCR. It might bounce, but I suspect it will have a lingering downward trajectory; especially if the markets float downward as a major driver. It is interesting tho that 9.7% of the GMCR stock is insider owned.

Thu, 05/03/2012 - 14:13 | 2394661 LULZBank
LULZBank's picture

Well, thats nothing compared to whats been happening to Gold & Silver. I love it everytime the PM bugs get blow torched, and come out saying "I dont care, my average is 400$ per ounce!" Well, that does not matter, as there is an opportunity cost for not buying AAPL shares all along, before the bull run, instead of stupid lumps of metals.

Okay, okay just kidding before I get 50+ down arrows, like last time, for making "joking with people's sensitivities" kind of post. It truly made me feel for MillionDollarAnus.

Anyway, just wanted to say that I am still not fully convinced by the bull market in PMs being over. Why dont you guys (you know who you are!) do a similar raid on AAPL stocks, with same ferocity and leverage, and lets see what happens. I mean I would just do it for shit and giggles.

The thought of all the slick traders and hedge fund managers being carted out on wheel chairs and stretchers, if not stuck in toilet shitting bricks, just gives me amusement that all of GLD and SLV cant buy.

Thu, 05/03/2012 - 14:21 | 2394690 robertocarlos
robertocarlos's picture

I like jokes about handicapped people.

Thu, 05/03/2012 - 14:32 | 2394727 skepticCarl
skepticCarl's picture

Yea, verily LULZbank, he that doth disregard Zero Groupies commandment no. 2 commiteth blasphemy:

"Thou shalt not taketh the name of Gold in vain, for the gold bugs will not hold him guiltless, who taketh the name of Gold in vain."

Thu, 05/03/2012 - 14:32 | 2394728 RoadKill
RoadKill's picture

I think the funniest thing aboit these PM bugs is that they dont even understand their own thesis. They whine when PMs are down in a downt tape.

You have to pick what side of the deflation / inflation trade you are on. If gold goes to $5,000 its because Ben prints too much and looses control of inflation. Stock will also go up 100%+.

If we solve this global debt bubble with defaults and deflation SOX is going to $700 and gold is going to $400.

The only scenario where stocks go down meaningfully and PMs go UP meaningfully is Obama gets reelected and goes Hollande on our asses introducing a 75% tax on all financial assets. Then your PHYSICAL gold held IN YOUR HOUSE will go way up in value but you wont be able to sell it or show it to anyone without fear of going to jail or being killed.

Thu, 05/03/2012 - 15:13 | 2394865 LULZBank
LULZBank's picture

You talk too much sense. Who let you in!

There is another possibility, where PMs can go up and everything else goes down (except your gf and mistresses) i.e. the current financial system collapses and people lose confidence in anything they cant hold physicaly (except their gfs and mistresses), possession. Also something that will have value, irrespective of what part of the world you are in or will move to.

That is why I love AAPL shares. Everyone wants an iPhone, some will even give you their kidney for it. Long iPhone, short kidneys ... best arb trade ever!!!!

Thu, 05/03/2012 - 15:42 | 2394946 viahj
viahj's picture

 

If we solve this global debt bubble with defaults and deflation SOX is going to $700 and gold is going to $400.

a global debt default and you're still pricing in $? 

Thu, 05/03/2012 - 15:45 | 2394952 css1971
css1971's picture

You simply don't understand the human condition. Vanity makes up larger and larger proportions of the human psyche as you go higher up the tree.

Thu, 05/03/2012 - 16:16 | 2395056 Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

Best of luck with that paper when the music stops.

Thu, 05/03/2012 - 14:16 | 2394673 Shleprock
Shleprock's picture

BTFD I have a feeling.....or possibly lombago

Thu, 05/03/2012 - 14:19 | 2394683 resurger
resurger's picture

 

Let it Burn.........

Thu, 05/03/2012 - 14:23 | 2394700 RoadKill
RoadKill's picture

Am i crazy or are both the 1 week and 3 month SPX charts showing the clearest H&S pattern Ive ever seen. Bad NFP and we are going to test 1340 REALLY FAST.

Thu, 05/03/2012 - 14:35 | 2394743 skepticCarl
skepticCarl's picture

Roadkill, you are no doubt crazy, as are the rest of us who overspend our time on this board, but you may be correct that the S&P will see a 5% decline soon.  That's not much of a pullback: it's pretty much in the normal noise level for a month.

Thu, 05/03/2012 - 14:24 | 2394701 Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

The 'floor' should be termed the 'trampoline'.

Thu, 05/03/2012 - 14:33 | 2394731 Bold Eagle
Bold Eagle's picture

GMCR is getting roasted today. I love the smell of the roasted coffee!

Thu, 05/03/2012 - 14:34 | 2394739 Hohum
Hohum's picture

I saw the headline and thought the indices were down 3%+.  No such luck.

Thu, 05/03/2012 - 14:35 | 2394742 orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

If this drop picks up momentum, we could see much of the Dec 2011 run disappear.

 

http://bullandbearmash.com/index/sp-500/daily/

 

Primary wave 3 in the making?

Thu, 05/03/2012 - 14:36 | 2394745 worbsid
worbsid's picture

Did anyone notice Silver is below 100 and 200 MDA? Gold too but not so much.

http://www.monex.com/prods/silver_chart.html

http://www.monex.com/prods/gold_chart.html

Thu, 05/03/2012 - 14:43 | 2394770 Stoploss
Stoploss's picture

20 already crossed thru the 50. Last time that happened we were at 1202.

Next stop is 1350, or DC bounce, or who gives a shit as long as it moves.

Thu, 05/03/2012 - 14:45 | 2394778 TonyCoitus
TonyCoitus's picture

Pull my finger.

Thu, 05/03/2012 - 14:49 | 2394790 Manthong
Manthong's picture

"Sell-off"?

What is that? Not in any vacabulary I can recall and computer won't translate it.

Thu, 05/03/2012 - 14:51 | 2394800 bnbdnb
bnbdnb's picture

Lots of selling today, a bit strange of an allowance.

Thu, 05/03/2012 - 14:59 | 2394825 Gamma735
Gamma735's picture

I am waiting for a pullback on Enron stock.

Thu, 05/03/2012 - 15:13 | 2394871 LULZBank
LULZBank's picture

Today, all your fat fingers are belongs to us.....

Thu, 05/03/2012 - 15:16 | 2394880 RoadKill
RoadKill's picture

Its nice when just the traders are commenting and the tin foil hat crowd hasnt taken over yet.

Btw I dont pay attention to PMs much. Just noticed GLD and SLV are almost back to where they were 6 months ago and stocks are barely off their tops.

That has to be the worst period of relative PM performance in 19 years. If that keeps up their is going to be mass sellimg by the retail crowd that got conned into buying gold coims by those douchy commercials om tv and glenn beck.

Once the selling starts the GLD unwind is going to be devastating.

Thu, 05/03/2012 - 15:27 | 2394907 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

The mass retail crowd never got into gld. Or if they did they sold after the last big knockdown when everyone screamed bubble.

Thu, 05/03/2012 - 15:48 | 2394962 Western
Western's picture

lotsa CIA spooks on ZH, hey?

if anyone thinks gold will get crushed long term they are delusional, i'll only use increasing central bank purchases (BRICS) as my evidence

Thu, 05/03/2012 - 15:27 | 2394909 css1971
css1971's picture

AAPL is the new bubble. Didn't you get the memo?

 

Thu, 05/03/2012 - 16:32 | 2395084 Think for yourself
Think for yourself's picture

GLD and SLV can go to 0 for all I care. I could wipe my ass with that paper.

On the other hand, if worst comes to worst I still have the exact same weight in oz, and whatever happens nice silver jewelry will keep selling for something (especially here in latin america which is reasonably firewalled from the local economy), electronics will keep being made, and solar won't disappear short of another viable portable personal energy source.

With the fundamentals of silver production and its industrial use I'm not scared at all that the value might drop anywhere much lower than it currently is. Not with the money supply as it is, not with the rotting and corrupt market fundamentals which have simply been painted over since 2008.

I've had this offer from a nice silversmith in Peru to provide me with an apprenticeship in the trade. I think I'll take it - that'll provide me with a nice way to convert passive savings into useful assets for a trade. Moreover, jewelry is more liquid, and never sells for less than the price of the material used, and usually rather 2-3 times the price.

Knowing that I can do this, and having the solidity of an 1-oz coin flipping between my fingers, provides me with all the security - and potential for growth - that I might need. Go and play with your houses of cards and sandcastles if that's what turns you on, I couldn't care less.

Thu, 05/03/2012 - 18:12 | 2395349 mercurial
mercurial's picture

Love those emini-watch indicators on the 4500 tick chart.

 

Fri, 05/04/2012 - 00:02 | 2395850 jmcaule4
jmcaule4's picture

Like Zero Hedge? King World News?

Want to know when to expect the next round of QE?

Is it a good time to be long stocks? What about gold miners?

http://jmcaule-whatimlookingatrightnow.blogspot.ca/

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!