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"Trade-Off": A Study In Global Systemic Collapse
And now a little something for everyone who consistently has a nagging feeling that at any second the world is one short flap of a butterfly's wings away from complete systemic disintegration: according to David Korowicz of FEASTA, and his most recent paper: 'Trade-Off: Financial System Supply-Chain Cross-Contagion: a study in global systemic collapse." that just may be the case.
Without further ado, we hand over the mic to the author:
This study considers the relationship between a global systemic banking, monetary and solvency crisis and its implications for the real-time flow of goods and services in the globalised economy. It outlines how contagion in the financial system could set off semi-autonomous contagion in supplychains globally, even where buyers and sellers are linked by solvency, sound money and bank intermediation. The cross-contagion between the financial system and trade/production networks is mutually reinforcing.
It is argued that in order to understand systemic risk in the globalised economy, account must be taken of how growing complexity (interconnectedness, interdependence and the speed of processes), the de-localisation of production and concentration within key pillars of the globalised economy have magnified global vulnerability and opened up the possibility of a rapid and large-scale collapse. ‘Collapse’ in this sense means the irreversible loss of socio-economic complexity which fundamentally transforms the nature of the economy. These crucial issues have not been recognised by policy-makers nor are they reflected in economic thinking or modelling.
As the globalised economy has become more complex and ever faster (for example, Just-in-Time logistics), the ability of the real economy to pick up and globally transmit supply-chain failure, and then contagion, has become greater and potentially more devastating in its impacts. In a more complex and interdependent economy, fewer failures are required to transmit cascading failure through socio-economic systems. In addition, we have normalised massive increases in the complex conditionality that underpins modern societies and our welfare. Thus we have problems seeing, never mind planning for such eventualities, while the risk of them occurring has increased significantly. The most powerful primary cause of such an event would be a large-scale financial shock initially centring on some of the most complex and trade central parts of the globalised economy.
The argument that a large-scale and globalised financial-banking-monetary crisis is likely arises from two sources. Firstly, from the outcome and management of credit over-expansion and global imbalances and the growing stresses in the Eurozone and global banking system. Secondly, from the manifest risk that we are at a peak in global oil production, and that affordable, real-time production will begin to decline in the next few years. In the latter case, the credit backing of fractional reserve banks, monetary systems and financial assets are fundamentally incompatible with energy constraints. It is argued that in the coming years there are multiple routes to a largescale breakdown in the global financial system, comprising systemic banking collapses, monetary system failure, credit and financial asset vaporization. This breakdown, however and whenever it comes, is likely to be fast and disorderly and could overwhelm society’s ability to respond.
We consider one scenario to give a practical dimension to understanding supply-chain contagion: a break-up of the Euro and an intertwined systemic banking crisis. Simple argument and modelling will point to the likelihood of a food security crisis within days in the directly affected countries and an initially exponential spread of production failures across the world beginning within a week. This will reinforce and spread financial system contagion. It is also argued that the longer the crisis goes on, the greater the likelihood of its irreversibility. This could be in as little as three weeks. This study draws upon simple ideas drawn from ecology, systems dynamics, and the study of complex networks to frame the discussion of the globalised economy. Real-life events such as United Kingdom fuel blockades (2000) and the Japanese Tsunami (2011) are used to shed light on modern trade vulnerability.
Think of the attached 78-page paper as Nassim Taleb meets Edward Lorenz meets Malcom Gladwell meets Arthur Tansley meets Herman Muller meets Werner Heisenberg meets Hyman Minsky meets William Butler Yeats, and the resultant group spends all night drinking absinthe and smoking opium, while engaging in illegal debauchery in the 5th sub-basement of the Moulin Rouge circa 1890.
The final product is frightfully spot on and should be read by every person even remotely close to setting policy (which is why it won't be).
Another rather notable excerpt dealing with financial system supply-chain cross contagion:
Something sets off an interrelated Eurozone crisis and banking crisis, a Spanish default say, which spreads panic and fear across other vulnerable Eurozone countries. This sets off a Minsky moment when overleveraged speculators in the banking and shadow banking system are forced to unwind positions into a one-sided (sellers only) market. The financial system contagion passes a tipping point where governments and central banks start to lose control and panic drives a (positive feedback) deepening and widening of the impact globally. In our tropic model of the globalised economy, the banking and monetary system keystone hub comes out of its equilibrium range, crosses a tipping point, and is driven away by positive feedbacks to some new state.
This directly links to another keystone-hub, production flows. Failing banks, fears of currency re-issue, fears of further default, collapse in Letters of Credit, and growing panic directly quickly shut down trade in the most affected countries. As the week progresses factories close, communications are impaired, social stress and government panic increases. After a week almost all businesses are closed, there is a rising risk to critical infrastructure.
Almost immediately internal trade and imports stops in the most affected countries, and there is impairment in a growing number of other countries. Trade is impaired globally via a credit crunch. This undermines exports from some of the most trade-central countries, with some of the most efficient JIT dependencies in the world. This cuts inputs into the production and trade into countries that were initially weakly affected by direct financial contagion. Globally, the spread of trade contagion depends on complexity, centrality, and inventory times and once a critical threshold is passed spreads exponentially until the effect is damped by a large-scale global production collapse (implying another keystone-hub, economies of scale is driven out of equilibrium).
Trade contagion and its implications feed back into financial system contagion, helping drive further disintegration. The interacting and mutually destabilising effects of keystone-hubs coming out of equilibrium destroy the equilibrium of the globalised economy initiating a systemic collapse.
Growing risk displacement in an increasingly vulnerable system is increasing the risk of system failure. Once the financial system contagion crosses a particular threshold the de-stabilisation of the globalised economy will be exceedingly difficult to arrest; this point may be in as little as ten days. Once a major system collapse occurs, scale, hysteresis, entropy, loss of critical functions, recursion failure, and resource diversion is likely to ensure that the features associated with the previous dynamic state of the globalised economy can never be recovered.
The above explains why the central planners of this world, all of them well-aware of the implications of what has just been said, will literally fight to the death to prevent the global system from reacquire its balanced natural state, which for 30 years they have been pushing further and further away from in other to perpetuate as long as possible, an unstable status quo, which has benefited a disproprtionately smaller number of systemic participants, and has lead the system far beyond its tipping point level. Sadly, the system will eventually regain balance: that is what nature dictates. When it does, a politically correct way of saying what happens it that "the previous dynamic state of the globalised economy can never be recovered" while a less PC framing would be "all hell will break loose."
The author continues:
We have outlined how the risk of a major shock arising from decades of credit expansion and imbalances is growing. We have also seen that we could expect a similar shock from the effects of peak oil on the economy. What unifies both is a catastrophic collapse arising from a loss of confidence in debt, and the solvency of banks and governments. What would be unique is the scale of the shock and its ability to strike at the heart of the world’s financial system. But the implications are not just within the financial and monetary system. They would immediately affect the trade in real goods and services. As our economies have become more complex, de-localised and high speed, the implications on supply-chains could be rapid and devastating.
There are three general points that are worth noting. Together they point to the likelihood that the crisis whenever it comes can be expected to be very large and society unprepared.
The first is temporal paralysis:
As financial and monetary systems become more unstable, the risks associated with doing anything significant to change or alter the course increase (see also the discussion of lock-in in the final section). In addition, the diversity of national actors, public opinion, institutional players and perceptions works against a coherent consensus on action. Therefore the temptation is to displace immediate risk by taking the minimal action to avert an imminent crisis. This increases systemic risk. Some steps in the evolving crisis might be handled, for example, a Greek default. However, each new iteration of the crisis is likely to be bigger and more complex than the one before, while the system is becomes ever less resilient.
A second issue is what might be called the reflexivity trap:
The actions taken to prevent a crisis, or preparations for dealing with the aftermath of a crisis, may help precipitate the crisis. Therefore to avoid precipitation, the preparation has to be low key and below the radar of the public and markets. This limits the extent and scope of preparation, increasing the risk of a chaotic and slow response.
The final point is about black swans & brittle systems:
The growing stress in our very complex globalised economy means it is much less resilient, see the discussion in section 3.1 and figure 2. Thus a small shock or an unpredictable event could set in train a chain of events that could push the globalised economy over a tipping point, and into a process of negative feedback and collapse.
One cannot predict how such a financial and monetary collapse will occur, or when. However, in this section we are considering a scenario, ideally one that in the light of what we know of the economic conditions sketched earlier seems at least reasonable. This scenario should be considered a warning, but also a more general guide to how supply-chain cross contagion might operate in any financial/ monetary collapse.
Everyone who is curious how the European endgame will (not may) plays out (especially all the bureaucrats at the ECB and the Bundesbank) should read what ensues. Because it is not pretty. Here is a snapshot:
Globally, monetary systems would become increasingly opaque. A lack of money, operational banks, currency re-issue, inflation and hyper-inflation expectations would become a reality in many advanced economies in and outside the Eurozone. Debt deflation would in its formal sense start to die-nobody would (even if they could) pay down debt, nor would there be any credit. Production would be increasingly shut down, while complex societies got a rapid lesson on the extent of system dependency.
The perception of continued socio-economic disintegration would alter behavioural responses such as trust radii and social discount rate.
Finally, financial system supply-chain cross-contagion is a re-enforcing negative feedback driving the globalised economy away from its stable state and into a new collapse one.
Granted the above is dubbed a worst-case outcome, but one which is inevitable unless authorities admit that it is a distinct possibility and actively prepare a contingency plan, which however in itself is somewhat self-defeating because as the Eurozone crisis has demonstrated the mere admission of reality is enough to propagate the system into a whole new level of unsustainability, and so on until the system cross a final threshold beyond which there is no salvageability. The author himself acknowledges this:
We do not like to think of ourselves as potentially irrational herd animals (that will be the Jones’s). We seek narrative frameworks that purport to explain our good fortune, ideally in ways that flatter. Reinhardt and Rogoff called it the This Time It's Different syndrome as each age sought to deflect warnings by arguing we're smarter now, better organised, or living in a different world. Just as the sellers of an overpriced home will convince themselves that it was their interior decorating skills not an inflating bubble that got them the good deal.
Of course warnings may keep coming, and almost by definition, from the fringes. When assessing risks that challenge consensus, people are more likely to defer to authority, which generally sees itself as the representative of the consensus. Furthermore, as a species with strong attachments to group affirmation, being wrong in a consensus is often a safer option than being right but facing social shaming, or especially if found to be wrong later.
Far better to say: “Look, don't blame me, nobody saw this coming, even the experts got it wrong!”
But even if we can appreciate a warning, the inertia of the status quo generally ensures acting on such warnings is difficult. In general we chose the easiest path in the short-term, and the easiest path is the one we are familiar and adaptive with. We would rather put off a hard and high consequence decision now, even if it meant much higher consequences some time in the future. However, if each step on the path of least resistance is a step further from where we ideally should be, the risks associated with doing anything rise as the divergence is so much wider. Eventually one's bluff may be called, but not yet, and hopefully on somebody else’s watch.
The consensus can often be correct and the marginal voices may be deluded. The point for the risk manager is to try and step through cognitive and social blind-spots by first recognising them. This is particularly true if the risks (probability times impact) considered are very high.
Unfortunately, it is very clear that we have learned almost nothing general about risk management as a societal practice arising from the financial crisis. We have merely adopted a new consensus, with a questionable acknowledgement that we will not let this type of crisis happen again. However, the argument in this following report is that we are facing growing real-time, severe, civilisation transforming risks without any risk management.
Which brings us to the conclusion:
We are locked into an unimaginably complex predicament and a system of dependency whose future seems at growing risk. To avoid catastrophe we must prepare for failure.
We are entering a time of great challenge and uncertainty, when the systems, ideas and stories that framed our lives in one world are torn apart, but before new stories and dependencies have had time to evolve. Our challenge is to let go, and go forth.
Our immediate concern is crisis and shock planning. It should now be clear that this is far more extensive than merely focussing on the financial system. It includes how we might move forward if a reversion to current conditions proves impossible. That is we also need transition planning and preparation. Even while subject to lock-in and the reflexivity trap, this will be most effective if it works from bottom-up as well as top-down.
Finally, neither wealth nor geography is a protection. Our evolved co-dependencies mean that we are all in this together.
Everyone who wishes to know what will happen unless everyone is aware of what may happen, should read the attached paper.
Trade-Off: Financial System Supply-Chain Cross-Contagion: a study in global systemic collapse (pdf)
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Sustainable is one of my favorite words.
Now we just need to get everyone that is hyper-focused on GDP and quarterly growth projections to learn what the word means.
somewhere in sands of the desert
A shape with lion body and the head of a man,
A gaze blank and pitiless as the sun,
Is moving its slow thighs, while all about it
Reel shadows of the indignant desert birds.
That sounds so much like a doctor I used to know on another site.
For no other crime than simply speaking the truth we were banished.
We have found our way to zero hedge,
where the truth can be spoken,
where friends can be made,
with out fear of permanent deletion and banishment from the community.
At least I can say something here without fear of reprisal,
MarketWatch sucks!
You are close to your first ZH birthday. Congrats.
Spastica, that is a frightsome piece. Did U write it? Otherwise, what is source?
Oh, for fuck's sake!!! ... Doesn't ANY American know how to use a search engine any more!?!
William Butler Yeats (1865-1939)
THE SECOND COMING
Turning and turning in the widening gyre
The falcon cannot hear the falconer;
Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold;
Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world,
The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere
The ceremony of innocence is drowned;
The best lack all conviction, while the worst
Are full of passionate intensity.
Surely some revelation is at hand;
Surely the Second Coming is at hand.
The Second Coming! Hardly are those words out
When a vast image out of Spiritus Mundi
Troubles my sight: a waste of desert sand;
A shape with lion body and the head of a man,
A gaze blank and pitiless as the sun,
Is moving its slow thighs, while all about it
Wind shadows of the indignant desert birds.
The darkness drops again but now I know
That twenty centuries of stony sleep
Were vexed to nightmare by a rocking cradle,
And what rough beast, its hour come round at last,
Slouches towards Bethlehem to be born?
I have no feeling for or knowledge of poetry; but this one is stupendous. Perfect for our Time.
My favorite is by Robert Frost representing the two main arguments for collapse (1) Organized plot NWO (2) Greed / herd mentality. Either way, WW3 sure is shaping up nicely.
Some say the world will end in fire,
Some say in ice.
From what I've tasted of desire
I hold with those who favor fire.
But if it had to perish twice,
I think I know enough of hate
To say that for destruction ice
Is also great
And would suffice.
a man. le pipe n'existe pas mr. bob.
the idignant birds? sorry. don't have a clue.
No those are indigent desert birds. Living on handouts from the prince and whatever dribbles out of the chimera's maw.
Actually, I met the chimera's maw. She was very nice, but not too proud of how her kid turned out.
The supply lines need to collapse, as do just about every worthless government. This isn't a bad thing. It's bad that we aren't adult enough to get on with it voluntarily.
ATTENTION! FOLLOW THE YELLOW BRICK ROAD...
I think it is time to pick up the pace,
and to stack like there is no tomorrow,
the opportunity to acquire gold and silver
will inevitably end,
and it will end soon.
By the time this particular sale comes to its conclusion,
gold and silver may not be available at all,
or at best, at many multiples of today's current prices.
'the white zone is for loading and unloading only"
@narnia- mr. lennonhendrix may have started the 'crash jpm/buy silver' thing- but if i might take up on your thought..... that is the 'big stay at home stike'. what else are you stacking for? everyone just needs to pull out now. each to his own preparedness. go back to work when you have to. let the unenployed work now, you go back when you have to.
i think this might even put off the catastrophic 87 "page 'all@onceversion
linky no good. not my fault. don't know how it happed .go on about your buisness. hi zh-er's!
spend silver bitches!
Sure dude.
You took some genuine thoughts from this site and manipulated them into pure nonsense. Let's be honest - your comment is pure nonsense.
Buy physical as often as you can and when ever you can, spacemonkeys The result of buying physical is having something of value to give to your family.
When I drink, (like now) sadly, I think I can see exactly the truth.
I think there were a lot of words up there... I think they meant to say: there will be a lot of trade vulnerability for nations when the values of currencies come into question. add to that: trade tariffs (started by the US) will begin to bite the US in the ass as they (the Chinese) retaliate likewise on the auto (sadly the major player is the Goobermint Motors of the Banana Republic) and luxury goods. Consumer prices at Walmart begin to rise etc...
Disclaimer: I have been drinking
Obama will save the day. Just ask Peggy Joseph
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P36x8rTb3jI
Can Tylers Durden search the interwebs and find out how fabulously well Ms. Joseph is doing right now?
I don't see how the entire banking system could collapse in the US. Even if all banks became insolvent simultaneously, the FDIC and the Fed would seize them and keep some semblence of normal operation. Most major loans would stop, but payment systems and ATMs would still work, and credit cards would probably still work as well, although the credit limits could be reduced.
A well-done EMP attack, nuclear attack, solar superstorm, nearby supernove, GRB, or other extinction-level natural event could knock out everything at once. Those are probably the only things that could.
They are all, already, insolvent. They mark to model, not to market. If they did so, the open truth would force them to shut their doors. We trusted them with our money and the nature of fractional reserve lending fucked things up.
If you have time, see this cartoon entitled "Money as Debt", 46 minutes:
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-2550156453790090544
You suggest nationalization and printing are okay? Because that is what would have to happen. Our systems cannot over ride mother nature and mother nature is suggesting that there are indeed limits to our expansion across the face of earth. The failure of the economy is a reflection of this.
Yo, Ms.
I read the whole bloody report. I had to take a nap in the middle, but I read it.
As you hint, it's way too deep for most of the commenters here, judging by the comments. I've seen this ZH movie before, and it only has a vague reference to the original story it's based on.
I can only say that it's worth a read if you have the time to take a nap in the middle.
Really!
This report was child's play compared to the 6 hour podcast I just listened to on tragedyandhope.com, which delved into the co-opting of Hegel's philosophies by the likes of Fichte via Kant, also discussing the dialectic and Hegel's true nature as opposed to the hijacking and illegitimate application for the purpose of societal control and evolution.
So I welcome simpler material such as this!
Law 1. You will obey orders without question.
Law 2: Punishment shall be swift.
Law 3: Mercy is for the weak.
Law 4: Terror will defeat reason.
Law 5: Your allegiance is to the clan.
Law 6: Justice can be dictated.
Law 7: Any clansman may challenge for leadership of the clan.
Law 8: There is only one penalty: death.
+1
There it is, our ultimate winner, I hold my glass to you sir/madam.
Go alpha males go, do that alpha thing. Honey badger don't give a shit
Presume to phuk my world up from the safety of your clan. Honey badger don't give a shit.
Karate Kid?
Actually, I think it is either from the book/movie "The Postman", or else part of Bill Clinton's wedding vows.
Dear historian piecing together the ruins of the civilization of your ancestors,
I happened.
immortality bitchez
Yeah, I can almost hear the metalic grinding sound of the giant cogs coming to a halt and the belts are about to give up.
But I think I'll leave for tomorrow morning, because... I love the smell of armageddon in the morning.
As an actual real world and understandable example I would begin...and end...with is Fukushima. Here is your actual HARD data...both of how interconnected the world is (auto sales plunged on the news because entire assembly lines had to be halted while awaiting parts) but also how over time the supply chain simply worked around the problem..."thus solving it." Fast forward to today and industrial orders in Japan are getting slammed...yet the global supply chain moves forward unabated. Another real world example is Boeing's disastrous experience with outsourcing the 787 project. Boeing is still in business...and learned the ultimate lesson in "insourcing" as a consequence. Even Airbus is now opening a facility in Alabama. The fact of the matter is "the London Whale" is now teaching global capital the final solution in how "all economics is local" and that Giant Sucking Sound was all that capital leaving the Bank and not merely "some jobs in Iowa." We succeed together or fail together now Banksters...a perfect honesty. If that makes you exclaim "thank God we're Americans"...well we'll see for how much longer. You'd be dead already if you were trying to recover from 2008 anywhere else on the Planet.
Kill all the butterflies. It's the only way to prevent the precarious perturbations that spiral into the whirlwind of the Korowicz catastophe.
On the Wings of Butterflies, bitches
Monsanto got that covered.
Re Kill all the butterflies
;)
Reminds me of that tiresome, pain-in-the-ass Bono of U2.
Apparently he was doing one of his charirty-relief concerts in Dublin and stopped halfway thru a song and started slowly clicking his finger & thumb into the mike, saying, "Every time I do this a child dies in Africa".
And dont you know some Irishman in the audience piped-up " Well stop feckin doing it - you stoopid feckin b@stard!"
LOL!
It's all intended for everyone to accept the NWO, of course. Got milk?
Here is my point. Financial "growth" was clearly manipulated by fraud via the housing bubble to provide consumers in developed countries the ability to buy Chinese and other developing countries "cheap labor junk."
This put the entire world in jeopordy because no mechanisms of saftey existed before or during the "Free Trade" process.
I cannot agree that smart people in charge of lots of money to manage agree with the status quo consensus. I would be more inclinded to believe that they have no alternative at this time but to follow the herd.
The elite are behaving strangely as exhibited in the military takeover of the middle east oil region as if their future depended upon it. As well as the desire to hold the EU together. This has an odd and desparate appearance to the reasonable mind.
Also when Roubini comes out in public and states that perhaps bankers would be hung as a remedy then it is no longer a "fringe" perception that unprosecutable fraud may vaporizor the entirety of money managers income and the wealth they have control over.
I do agree that the US draught may quickly spark revolutions and that further out of those revolutions will proceed paramilitary forces that will go after the banking families of the world as a consolidation to the populace they wish to lead.
Chaos probably has a limited time frame within which to reign due to the necessity of humans to survive. Although within that time frame ...
I read a little more now.
'Without the level of de-localisation, complexity, and open connectivity, it is doubtful that such high levels of debt could have built across so many countries. Debt is now not just a feature of countries and banks - it is a system stress in the globalised economy as a whole.'
This is the result of corporate takeover of the US political system at the Federal level.
Rights and sustainability and a constitution must be implemented at the smallest social grouping, probably much smaller than at the state level, to survive the forces of global interconnectedness. If any part of the system fails the others continue to operate.
The Frankensteins of fraud have created the system we live in now. I don't agree at all with the author says about peak oil, except for a short term disruption that may precipitate further chaos, because of what Germany has been able to do with alternative energy sources. SHTF and there are lots of options in the US which just may be the impetus to get this country back on its feet.
Anyhow thanks for the posting. I'll take a copy in to my Human Geography professor. I'm sure he will enjoy it too.
q,
If you are as young as you look in your writing, then carry on being bright and inquisitive. If you are old and manipulative, die soon.
Ta.
q99x2 - - - read F William Engdahl. He has several books dealing with such matters as oil geo-politics, the importance of the central Asian region geographically for global power, Full Spectrum dominance, etc
Make preparations every day, and remember you are mortal.
Hoka hey
"Make preparations every day, and remember you are mortal."
Yep, we're only on this earth so long - - - Fuck it, - - might as well fight the bankster criminals all out. We might even leave something better for the youngsters.
Risk management ended when the international accounting organisation blessed 'mark to model' over mark to market.
Honest accounts ended then. Caveat emptor. All else is whining.
Also, most trades are computer generated algorithms and HFT. The trading floor is window dressing, bread and circuses for the masses.
Hear, here!
The question is not who will do risk management for us. The question is, how many of us are already doing our own risk management.
The shoe is about to squish a whole lot of ants. Those of us who can see the shoe already can make plans to be off the sidewalk and in the grass at a moment's notice.
And all that whining isn't going to shame the bastards into changing their M.O. anyway.
Insitutionalized dishonesty destroys the trust required by all business relationships. With the possible exception of bank robbery, rape, and Scratch & Sniff lotto tickets.
Some one call the " Dominos Pizza" guy! This shit is getting good!
The backstop for what Korowicz sees as being possible is the Executive Order on Resource Preparedness. Under those definitions some aspects of economics still works.
What in the Hell does Resource Preparedness" have to do with this thread? I'm using all my cerebral facilities trying to figure that one out!?
Have u read that EO? It provides a framework for working through any serious economic crises where stability and continuity might be preserved. Of course the rules and definitions change quite a bit in ways. But physics and thermodynamics and kinetic and potential energy will still be the same.
People not just slaves in this scenario. They're skilled labor, providing essential services to the nation during a time of emergency.
Or just because it's cheaper.
Because it keeps something close to business as usual continuing in some form.
"Armarments, universal debt and planned obsolescence - those are the THREE pillars of western prosperity."
Aldous Huxley
Awe inspiring insight? Or are the rest of us so stubborn, so ignorant of history, that we just can't see the obvious.
I have seen the obvious, and it is us.
The whole report makes sense. It has a few holes in it where they didn't go the logical step beyond govt source material, but that really doesn't change the value of the report.
Can you grow your own potatoes or do you need commercially provided seed potatoes and a raft of chemicals from the god of agriculture?
To me, it's all about simplifying to survive.
I bring up potatoes because I had to toss a bag of spuds that had gone to the dark side late in the winter. Rather than put them in the garbage, I tossed them in the loose needle mulch under the Doug Firs out in the back yard.
Today I notice the about 6 of the damned things are growing back there. Under the thick fir tree canopy. If potatoes can do it without much help, then maybe there's some hope for the rest of us.
I can't build a new van from stuff I find in the yard (Unlike a couple of the neighbors) but I can decrease my dependency on a complicated system, a little at a time.
Systems are going to get uncomplicated in a hurry if you can believe this report. I won't be ready for it, but I'll adapt or die, just like the rest of us.
I thought I would be the last of a centuries long list of subsistence farmers , but it appears instead, I will be the new beginning.
Many simple ideas that one needs to know. When to plant, when to harvest (taters are pulled in the morning, allowed to dry in the sun all day, and then stuffed into the potato bins in the root cellar) How to store seeds, how to air dry corn, how to control fungus, bugs etc. Having chickens helps out tremendously in many ways. They are my helpers in the garden. They are most excellent at spreading out compost and removing bugs.
Here is a guy with a garden growing technique that I am going to try out next season, on one of our half acre gardens. He no longer plows or rototills. I always suspected this could be done. Can't wait for all the old timers in my area to see this technique!
http://backtoedenfilm.com/#movie
You rule, Hulkster.
You are so " COY". Algos and all?
Lizzy lay of the past! It breeds insanity! Every society has 3 pillars ! Whether they be elected or appointed!
So the first week doesn't look so bad, everyone says "hey, this isn't THAT bad...". Then by about week three Mel Gibson drives by in 18 wheeled tanker with a shotgun pointed out the window...
...raging about how the Jews destroyed everything?
Sorry Billy, I could not resist your set up.
oh yea...with a bottle of Patron between his legs..
I am going to the dude who looks like Mick Jagger, the smart one who was refining all the petrol. Who are you guys gonna be?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D7948yEB1vk
Refining Petrol? You mean the tESLA dude?
Okay I don't listen to AJ very much (everyone says that!) but that older guy, Lyndsey Williams (?), heard him some time back, supposedly get inside "elites" planning info, whatver. Here is the thing, he said that "they" were going to destalilize the entire middles east, not occupy, or even worry too much about puppets, he said just roll the dictators and then open some big hidden oil wells in Alaska, let the markets collapse and pull back to "fortress America"....something along those lines. That sorta stuck in my head, like I said, I haven't heard the guys since, but what he said seems to be transpiring, a breakneck run through the Mid East rolling dictators and that they would keep the markets alives until later in the year, then let them go, Thoughts?
Back up Plan
http://www.henrygeorge.org/isms.htm
It's gonna take a lot of different people coming together to meet this challenge.
I will try to transcend...
Here is economic truth.
How this happened over a long long time...institutional corruption,
plain and simple. (Economic Propaganda bud)
http://www.amazon.com/The-Corruption-Economics-Georgist-Paradigm/dp/0856832448?tag=duckduckgo-d-20
http://masongaffney.org/
http://michael-hudson.com/
http://www.fredharrison.com/?cat=4
Monetary
http://monetary.org
We need to triage, then reform I believe.
Preparing would make it go better...
Everyday, I see this becoming more something we should consider...
If we create a framework and roll it out, we can adapt together.
The analysis is good, the conclusion is placed in the framework of the present economic and political system which is at fault. Societal risk management is undesirable so is not a factor to consider.
The global citizen is going exactly where the economic interests of the powerholders are best served - in a subservient survival mode, powerless except for brief and exhilerating posts that help the tired soul, but change little.
Oh, I disagree. I find it very empowering to make decisions today that will help me and mine weather what is to come if the "present economic and political system" does not undergo an overhaul. I'm not feeling very subservient these days. Quite the opposite, in fact.
As for societal risk management not being a factor to consider, personal risk management as it relates to an individual global citizen (particularly myself) is very much a factor to my way of thinking. In fact, personal risk management is the only relevant factor I am considering at this time.
You might ask why I'm taking your comments out of context and applying them to an individual, but you see...I've given up on our political and economic system. It's all about me and mine now. There is nothing I can do for any of the rest of you, so maybe I'll see you on the other side.
But what do I know? I'm nobody. :)
Everybody is a body, is somebody. And if you can consistently (carefully) shelter and nurture "your" own, it is nevertheless useful to link up with, or encourage another, or others. One is alone, two can start a movement, three can fight a war. We havent got that far.
Go Ron Paul. Go Revolution.
The last sentence is very true.
https://libertyrevival.wordpress.com/2012/06/24/welfare-state-nightmare-and-blunt-truth/
Unfortunately, the blunt truth is that this nightmare is the current state of the economy. Fortunately, there is a solution and a bill written to solve the problem. It is called the Kucinich NEED Act of 2011. It was written by Stephen Zarlenga of the American Monetary Institute. The bill would pay off the national debt without taxation. The government would end fictional reserve banking and the control the banks have over the economy. The government would bring fictional reserves to full reserves by paying off the national debt, creating real jobs by fixing the nation’s infrastructure with new money that isn’t borrowed from the bank or from the rich or collected in income taxation from the productive poor. It would also issue citizen dividends to evenly distribute the money in the economy.
With the end of national debt, the rich would have $9T available to invest in private production, creating real jobs. New jobs would also be created by the rest of the new money entering the economy. There would be money to provide supply. There would be money to provide demand. There would be no treasury bonds and no national debt. There would be no welfare state for the rich. It would be sustainable. It would be supply-and-demand economics. It would be usury-free economics.
We need real investment and job creation. The rich need to stop collecting welfare and start investing in real jobs if they want a return on their savings. We need debt-free Greenbacks to get America working and out of debt.
“It is absurd to say that our country can issue $30,000,000 in bonds and not $30,000,000 in currency. Both are promises to pay; but one promise fattens the usurer, and the other helps the people. If the currency issued by the Government were no good, then the bonds issued would be no good either. It is a terrible situation when the Government, to increase the national wealth, must go into debt and submit to ruinous interest charges at the hands of men who control the fictitious values of gold.” — Thomas Edison
“Once a nation parts with the control of its currency and credit, it matters not who makes the laws. Usury once in control will wreck any nation. Until the control of the issue of currency and credit is restored to government and recognized as its most conspicuous and sacred responsibility, all talk of the sovereignty of Parliament and of Democracy is idle and futile.” — Canadian P.M., William Lyon Mackenzie King
“Thou shalt not lend upon usury (interest) to thy brother, interest on the money, or on anything that is lent with interest.” — Deuteronomy 23:19
Read the nwhole articalclicking the abovelink if you are interested in a sane solution to insanity.
Thanks.
We need more government to fix the problem of too much government.
Great idea.
Now I'm going to go get drunk to celebrate 30 years of sobriety.
Sounds like a plan even Ron Paul would appreciate.
I see that as government getting back to doing its job. Its not more government, its less.
I bet you would have complained back when Jackson got rid of the Central Banks also, saying it was more government trying to fix to much government
http://www.webelements.com/gold/
If a finite Ponzi-like debt-based system of money and credit is at some point guaranteed to collapse, it will require nothing short of another Wizard of OZ, more magnificent than the last, to evoke the necessary level of misguided human avidity to get a new Ponzi scheme going sufficiently to replace the last.
If humankind has been able to cooperate effectually amid such complex systems of production under the fairy-tale guise of debt-based money and credit systems, what is the big –fn- deal about cooperating with our eyes wide open amidst political and monetary structures that are ground in reality vs. pie in the sky delusions?
The BIS, IMF, WTO, and every central bank in the world need to announce publically that it has all been a terrible mistake, the system of money and credit that is. They should assure the world not to despair, but rather to maintain business as usual and rejoice in anticipation as the world finally transitions from its flawed monetary system – to a new monetary system based upon concrete tangibles vs. the mistaken one of broken dreams and illusions, which had a nice run, but has far outlived its marginal utility.
If we can get to the moon and create weapons systems powerful enough to destroy the world, we ought to be able to figure out how to transition out of this Ponzi-scheme nightmare without having to endure a “total collapse.” We are LOCKED-IN, only because we believe that we are locked-in, just as most believe that paper money is wealth.
LOL ... that's exactly what the NWO is planning ... Central Planning On Steroids!!!
At least you'll be happy. Others of us, not so much.
The "new" monetary system is definitely the key. Whether we close one based on freedom or slavery is the question.
Exactly! WTF is the problem with moving away from the current fiat bullshit?
Interesting that Korowicz doesn't mention gold once in his paper.
Because when the big collapse comes, your gold ain't gonna be worth a pile of doggy-poo. Can't eat it, and no one else will want it for the very same reason. If I had food in my house (I do), and you wanted to give me some of your precious gold for it, I'd f--kin shoot you in the head, and add you to the food pile (for my dogs that is).
You can take your gold and stuff it where the sun don't shine.
Over valued, over rated, shiny metal with no value to me whatsoever. Same with silver and platinum. If there is a real collapse, I will value my canned food and bottled water WAY above your "precious metal". And I would not take any of your pms in trade for it either.
Suggest you read ONE SECOND AFTER, by William Forstchen, what life was like after an EMP strike. You could not give me your gold, I would not want to have to lug it around. And a collapse is a collapse, whether financial or an EMP strike, same result.
Don't have any. Don't want any.
SEE YA!
Read the whole article, took awhile but worth it. I'll be linking it to others who think it is unlikely this will happen. Doubt they will even bother to read one paragraph, but that is their problem.
RE You can take your gold and stuff it where the sun don't shine.
Hmmm.... presumably you wouldnt be accepting BITCOINs either for your freeze-dried ragwort rations?
Got a whole stash of 'em backed-up on a CD (Hello! Can you say EMP-Prepared?) around here somewhere if you think you might be interested ;)
PM's should not be a first purchase, they should be made after you have your water, food, farmland, guns and toilet paper. Will toilet paper be worth more than gold right after a total collapse, probably. But when will the collapse happen and what will it look like. If they are able to keep this zombie walking for another 2-5-10 years somehow then gold with be worth a lot more than toilet paper.
If you dont have the extra cash on hand at the end of each month/ quarter/ year then PM's are not for you. I dont look at it as an either-or, I want both but necessities come first.
PM's are a way to store your wealth long term. I would rather have some gold from the time of the roman collapse vs some grain and a spear from the same time. How about some gold from the Bosnian collapse or bottles water and noodles.
There have been enough real world collapses that you should be able to find plenty of reasons to hold PM's AFTER you have everything else without needing to direct people to a work of fiction (One Second After) I liked the book but it was fiction. Read Survivors if you want more fiction and see that in his story Gold was still useful.
toilet paper worth more than gold? WTF? If you have access to plenty of water, then toilet paper is, and will continue to be of ZERO value. Millions of people around the world get along just fine without it right now, and have been doing so for centuries.
The story of the guy from Bosnia who survived for a year in a city that was surrounded by an enemy army has been posted several times in the comments section here. Its a real world look at a SHTF scenario and he talks about what was valuable and what was not. In his stories many unnecessary but "luxury" items were highly sought after like alcohol, smokes and toilet paper.
But who says people will have access to plenty of water? In his story the water source was a very dangerous place to be since the predators hung out there, plus it was very contaminated.
Gold is a possible escape valve mechanism for those who are NOT part of the Oligarchy and who want to flee from the fiat system.
Such capital flight only makes Oligarchy's current power structure more sterile and impotent. Thats ONE door they will try and keep firmly shut! Rigidity, Control!
As for now, things being somewhat stable, maybe so. But after reading the entire article above, after a collapse, you can keep it. I don't want it, or any other heavy pms. I'll keep what food and water (guns and ammo as well) I have over your pms.
I've pre red-arrowed myself to get the ball rolling.
Folks on this site often have very good observations about the economy, crony capitalism and crony socialism. Its a shame that many are still so obessed with Gold. Folks, Gold is not the tooth fairy magic answer you believe it to be. It will not rescue you from Amergeddon or financial meltdown. Get over it. You are starting to sound like the Hopium big government Democrats and Republicans. Stay focused on your practical free market suggestions and you will be fine.
With all due respect..........you are wrong about gold.
I am currently trading gold( acquired in 2003 )for dirt cheap s.f housing in the midwest.
Am leaving Denver( the L.A of the rockies ) for small town Ozarks living and lifesytle.
This I believe will greatly aid in my families well being if............TSHTF.
You are right however about the discussion and well reasoned in-sights on this blog.
Simply brilliant and hard to find on the interweb.
the inevitable reaction of Oligarchy is to increase the rigidity of the system to limit the effects of VOLATILITY and roller coaster momentum in a brittle environment. More Central planning and printing. Obvious knee jerk.
These guys will try and protect their ill gotten gains come what may!
"We would rather put off a hard and high consequence decision now, even if it meant much higher consequences some time in the future. However, if each step on the path of least resistance is a step further from where we ideally should be, the risks associated with doing anything rise as the divergence is so much wider."
The garden path is a one-way street.
The problem is the Monetary System (the banknote scheme) ... NOT the Financial System and it's utter inability to attain the impossible social risk-aversion goals of Marx's 5th Plank!
Hobbies are fun and important to us all.
You have a hobby that involves commenting on ZH re: whatever it was you said above.
One of my hobbies is to listen to Katy Perry videos, such as this catchy tune
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=98WtmW-lfeE
Another one of my hobbies is also to remind spacemonkeys to buy physical. (I've also started to take my hobby off of ZH and onto other sites - as pretty much every other person here who gets it should)....but let's get back to your point
What is 'Marx's 5th Plank'? And whatever it is, why should we care about it?
Nah, nevermind...
Buy physical or STFU. End of discussion.
"The final product is frightfully spot on and should be read by every person even remotely close to setting policy (which is why it won't be)."
LOL Obummer is reading bedtime stories to his daughters and tomorrow the teleprompter.
So you bolded this passage why? Presumably because you felt something about it?
I don't get it. Buy physical or have worthless academic debates on the internet. Am I missing something?
I thought it was pretty obvious if you read my comment and understand it. But for you I'll clarify: our so called leaders are not concerned with reality or actual problems, they're just making sure they'll be (re)elected.
If buying physical PM is all you do, you won't be that much better off than the average person, if what this article predicts comes true.
But but but I thought it was Greece who was bringing down Europe. Yawn.
Doesn't matter if it's a guy with a hunting bow that brings it down.
Whether Europe's money collapses, the Straits of Hormuz goes radioactive or the New Madrid Fault opens and swallows this year's corn crop and most of the midwest, we're all in this shitstorm together. Each of us is tied together in techno-trap knots that Harry Houdini couldn't handle.
Try some coffee for the yawn. Those things are contagious.
Got news for you....much of the midwest corn crop is already destroyed due to drought and heat. Our farmers in Indiana are already cutting down the remains. It is devastating.
Get rid off Wall Street. The mom and pop businesses that supposedly will create new US jobs aren't traded on Wall St., so shut it down. Limit New York City to credit unions only. I have a feeling if the bank system collapses, credit unions will be fine. The Walton family are greedy enough they will immediately switch to credit unions for transacting Sam's Club and Walmart business.
The more hedge fund managers, day traders, and bankers destitute, broke unemployed, and on food stamps, the better off the world will be. Rick Santelli can read the obituary for hedge fund managers who bite the big one. Hilarious. People who don't want regulation attempt suicide and botch that. Perfect for Rick Santelli and his bad brown suit.
Total up the dollar amount that gets charged to Phil Gramm. Haul him back into Congress, denounce him and throw him in prison beside Bernie Madoff. Let's see if the bank system stabilizes.
Better yet, go after the Satanic Tribe that is behind it all. The the bastards down in the streets and confiscate their property!
He mentions the UK fuel crisis back in 2000. It didnt take long for the food supply chain to be on the brink of collapse back then;about eight days iirc. Closing my eyes, I can still see a guy thumping a woman as he tried to wrestle a loaf of bread from her. A few of us went to her aid and she was fine but it give me a taste of dog eat dog which was, in fact, terrifying.
Does Bohemian Grove qualify?
As time has passed, the Amish have felt pressures from the modern world. Issues such as taxation, education, law and its enforcement, and occasional discrimination and hostility, are areas of difficulty.
The Amish way of life in general has increasingly diverged from that of modern society. On occasion, this has resulted in sporadic discrimination and hostility from their neighbors, such as throwing of stones or other objects at Amish horse-drawn carriages on the roads.
is it true that amish women love to eat mushy-mashi, as mashi is so much like amish it makes them feel comfy-groovy; it must be nice to be a mushy in amish breakfast in bed.
That saying, its time from some chilled stuff, as I'm feeling as if i've been mushi mashed in amish hot oven.
The swedes were great at serving blonde dishes in smorgasbord. Just saying, if the amish wench wants to drink chardonnay.
as time goes by ...Lyrics to "As Time Goes By" from the movie Casablanca
The quality of the hand hewn oak, candle power computer has appearantly improved considerably. Thanks for your input brother.
I have a new economic theory, it's called the Married Couple Economy.
It goes like this. You know how a married couple will get in severe debt because they act differently together than they would on their own? One buys what they want, causing the other to feel entitled to buy what they want. All under the delusion that as a couple they aren't individually responsible. All resulting in bankruptcy and divorce, as they end up with more debt than they can manage.
That's what the globally economy is.
Pedofiles and Sociopaths,...got to hunt them down equally!
Read this - and you will understand what is happening now http://www.scribd.com/doc/8634450/Germany-and-the-Jews-by-Benjamin-H-Fre...
Greeks Favor Renegotiation Of Loan Even At Risk Of Euro Exit
You will read "The Fourth Turning"
PB, nice to see you posting haven't heard from you in a while.
Any insight on the goings on in Portugal?
Here is what democracy/government is currently in the USA.
Increase Spending on crap. Decrease Taxes for crap. Make War. That is all.
People have told me I'm a permabear over the last four years (I'm not, I'm a realist, and I've also been bullish...on gold), but this makes me look/sound like an optimist!
I've said to people since 2007/2008 that the too-big-to-fails should have failed if their positions were untenable, and their assets/liabilities taken on AT MARKET VALUE by other more responsible banks (of which there are many, they're not all like JPM, Goldman et al).
Rather than trying to keep the bubble inflated and 'get back to growth' (infinite growth in ANY system is not possible), if the Central Banks had accepted the situation and MANAGED the depression, the potential for systemic collapse would have been mitigated. As it is, it's now almost certain.
DavidC
System collapse has been in the cards from Day 1 of this fiat/reserve currency cycle. Is just human nature. But, no one could have ever imagined the technology and energy boom this cycle would yield - or globalization on such a scale - etc. The result is that we have obtained a state of incredible "potential energy" that has the ability to inflict incredible damage.
The system has been "tweaked" for decades to prolong the inevitable. Only more noticeable since 2000 or so. Now in broad daylight. Bubble after bubble. Unmitigated greed.
Crashing the banks back in 2008 is rather a question of whether it would have prolonged an evitable system failure - or ushered it in even faster. It would be ironic though if the very greed that kills each system is accelerating us towards the event horizon. In fact, I am pretty damn sure this is the case.
Scarcity will be the issue. Those that are lucky / smart to to have food / fuel will be given a choice to trade in silver / gold or lead.
The unlucky will not get a choice.
The police / Guard will become targets as they will undoubtedly have access to both food and fuel.
We'll get to see how thin the veneer of civilization really is. Mad Max world coming up.
Mormons will win out in the end because they all will have food and an infrastructure of leadership.
King Mitt.
Join early and get the best pick of wives.
Hahahaha, I love the comment, but you are hopefully wrong. If right, we'll be in for another 1000 years or so of living under the yoke of a bunch of religious fanatic morons similar to what western civilisation was suffering through during the middle ages.
It won't take much to peel off the increasingly thinner veneer of civilization...
An interesting twist to the euro sovereign debt is this article :
The World Is Experiencing The Opposite Of A Sovereign Debt Crisis - Business Insider
This just goes to show that HOt money is desperate to find a place to invest, anywhere everywhere, EXCEPT Europeripherals!
Doesn't that ring a bell? You burn some muppets, the lazy, fat ones, to make you money. Then you go hide it amongst the otHER docile muppets, who just stuff their pride and present you their rosy, naked hides and say "thank you Oligarchs, we love you!". Like the sheeple they be.
HOT MONEY ON THE RUN!
Nigel Farage – BBC Record Europe JULY 2012 Predictions
European banks are technically bankrupt
I have no particular ability for ESP and I am pretty sure none of you do either, but I think a lot of what is said here re collapse is hyperbole. There has been a collapse in the US/world in 1930 and while the situation got very ugly it did not end with a population die off and road warriors ruling the countryside, or a few survivors - lone armed holdouts protecting their bunkers up on Ruby Ridge.
Humans/primates are hardwired for cooperation and those that prosper in survival are those able to work together and which show compassion towards other individuals. The individuals incapable of this or unwilling to share and help others are the ones that fail to thrive or die. Of course the larger the population the more exceptions there are to the general rule, but the point is still valid, if you believe you can be self sufficient for the rest of your life then go ahead and try, but be prepared in the end to be treated as you treat others when your experiment fails, something to do with gunpoint or discharge of weapons, snarled threats to scram or meet your maker.
There are other modern examples of total systemic collapse to draw on, the Soviet Union suffered a collapse of it's entire structure, governmental, financial, economic, infrastructure, yet today ordinary Russians are alive and well and Russia is coming out of a dark age with prospects of one day eclipsing western standards of living. They survived in large part because in spite of the collapse people still tilled the soil and drove the trucks and delivered the mail and opened their shops whether they had anything on the shelves or not. In short because they cooperated. They bartered. Many women turned to prostitution, true, and drugs gained a foothold true, there was a lot of desperation, some people went years without being paid wages, but they survived. And most of that nightmare is now behind them. They will have a hangover of mafia overlords and a frightening AIDS epidemic to deal with, but they did get through it.
I think we will too, and maybe after the frightening first few weeks it might even make us far more able to prosper to lose the yoke of centralized banking and government, isn't that what you all have been complaining about? That what TPTB are doing is killing our economy and society? The collapse when it comes is not OUR collapse, it is theirs, the collapse of the money fisted elite strangling us in order to maintain a grip on our every breath and movement.
The Ruby Ridge loners buying ammo assume that their investments will allow them to live while all others die. It might be smart to invest in a few things that would make your life more comfortable in a protracted and deep depression, but planning for person on person war has no utility and will be money pissed away, and the antisocial implications of weapon hoarding may well get you killed in a world where the vast majority see this as a threat. A shotgun OK, a rifle OK, even a handgun OK, for protection and hunting, but AK's, machine guns, whole lockers filled with weapons, enough ammo to start a small war? Do not be surprised when ATF or FBI come to you and tell you to come out with your hands up.
Ask yourself: What's the longest I have ever lived without food (not including when you were't sick in bed)? Half-a-day? A day? Two days?
My guess is that 98% of the people in the US or Europe have never gone more than a day without eating. Nothing like real hunger to focus the mind on what you should have done.
A lot of words to tell us there are multiple ways the shit can hit the fan. I can condese it to much less verbiage such as:
Hitching the wagon of intelligence to the horse of greed without taking the scenery into account. There!
That equilibrium curve.....sure looks like a rogue wave to me.
The "Black Swans" have already arrived
Here's a list:
1) Surging U.S. Dollar
2) Cratering commodity prices
3) Nasdaq 2000-style bubble in fixed income
4) Bernanke's ability to control all markets via "gum flapping"
5) Decimation of the metals, mining, coal, and solar industries
6) Deficits going exponential yet interest rates have crashed to 50-year lows
You mention about 10% of the problems. Well here are another 5% or so:
How about planned obsolescence, totally skewed and manipulated 'free markets', farm-soil depletion and over-fishing of the oceans, climate-change, overpopulation, depleting and contaminated water supplies, proliferation and increasingly more devastating weapons of mass-destruction.... etc.etc.
The financial 'skin' over the resource/infrastructure 'bones'. Too bad there's no legitimate governance system left to provide the 'muscles' to hold it together.
Oh, yeah: We ZHers are part of the 'nerves'. At least the infomation exists for those who care to know.
Rather than continuing with the doomed process of trying to fix the problem of too much Eurozone debt with more debt we should be focused on what we want the post fractional reserve banking system to look like and how we can design it so that the public owns it and the private bankers do not.
The only way this scenario ends well for the greater good of humanity is through an, "Act of God". Otherwise, everything is else is just a repeat of what has already been done in favor of special interests. There already is is a controlled, "Collapse of the system", in Europe which is inflicting pain on the general public and what are they doing turning to their governments and following blindly. What are they getting in return increased government regulation, increased taxes, and loss of liberty and personal freedom. The same thing is not happening in the US? Look at history and the so called, "Great Financial Challenges that have occurred in the US since the 1900's and what we have got in return?" The Federal Reserve, 1929 Wall Street crash, Great Depression, 1970's and 2008? What did we get as a result increased government regulation, taxes, and loss of liberates and freedom. Until enough people are willing to stand as individuals and say thanks, but no thanks to further government intervention to fix the problem the results will always be the same.
I do not subscribe to the theory that a NWO is on the way, because it is already here. There will be additional rioting in the streets, as the changes of the NWO become more obvious to the general public. However, the Hell-Fire and brimstone end of times that is spewed by some who hope to retain some sort of control over their with "Prepare..." (I don't say that to mock those that are stocking up on guns, ammo and food), it's just the majority of people do not care and prefer to be taken care of no matter what the cost. Furthermore, we don't really have to worry in the US, the federal government has spend a lot of money building FEMA Camps, where food, water, shelter and medical care will be provided. I don't see the neighbor killing neighbor for food as the law of the land. The NWO order is already here, and so far we doing just what was planned...Looking to our governments for the answers and blindly following.
I don't say this to appear to smarter than anyone else, I live in real-ville and people will always take the road of least resistence to sustain life. If that was not true then why are so many people moving from Unemployment checks to SS Disability checks? Which is really nothing more than a soft transition towards the FEMA camp. The NWO is alreay here.
So much better to have no regulation so the banksters can game without consequence. And now that the elites have won and have most of the wealth, keep that libertarian "no new taxes" mantra going to keep things that way. Loss of liberty and personal freedom come more from the Patriot Act and NDAA than regulation and taxes. The Patriot Act will help the elites have complete control over the sheeple.
"What are they getting in return increased government regulation, increased taxes, and loss of liberty and personal freedom."
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Population_growth
Here is what you are missing. This is the fundamental math we are up against.
The era we are leaving was an incredible run. A massive, cheap energy, technology driven, industrial age boom (bubble). It is not sustainable. The world we are going into is much different. Normalcy bias will be the real killer in the short term.
The "kind" goal is a soft transition. But, the transition itself is not going to be kind. Human behavior is not going to suddenly find itself happy working towards the common good of moving towards sustainability - accepting more "globally" level standards of living, healthcare, etc. in some sort of worldwide group hug.
Real-ville is that people tend to be selfish. And when faced with real crisis, many will revert into animals pretty damn fast. Decades of increasing exposure to acts of violence, accelerating rat race bashing on fight/flight instincts, etc. help herein.
We can't even be certain if a kind goal can be managed. Or that various factions of powerful people won't fuck it up accidentally or intentionaly in playing their own angle in this global chess game.
50 years from now will more closely resemble 100 years ago rather than resemble today.
can't disagree with a lot of it, nrthrngl . except that when things get haywire there is no predicting responses in general terms for each subset.
absolutely there will be those dependent on gubmint (the largest %) who will readfily punch their tickets to the fema camps. but there will be others who will resist to the end. macro changes can result from that - if communication and symmetry between these "dissenting groups" is maintained at some level.
it's not only about surviving through the turmoil but positioning for what comes out the other side. and what this is will always be largely in flux.
that's why people unwilling to be herded should gnerally prepare for the worst - but being prepared and flexible enough to emerge to the other side (which will come) is a concern for the longer term.
Exactly why anyone who says you "need this" and "not that" is at this point full of shit.
No one knows what is next. Or what will happen in certain cities, states, regions, countries, etc. Certainly there will be winners and losers. There will be places that are relatively safe and places that are not. And it could all change over time. Even the pace of change is variable. Which is I think and open mind and flexibility are key.
And now a little something for everyone who consistently has a nagging feeling that at any second the world is one short flap of a butterfly's wings away from complete systemic disintegration:
time to start pulling the wings off those pretty little butterflies?
What we have learned from systems theory is that complex systems are powerfully driven to the boundary between order and chaos. Too much order leads to stasis and inability to adapt, thus failure as conditions change. Too much chaos leads to failure as the system cannot reproduce itself and loses continuity. The Tibetan Buddhists made similar observations about human nature thousands of years ago. We all have the forces of stasis and chaos within us, in a dynamic balance. A balance that can and does fail.
Our systems today are certainly more complex. They are just as inherently driven to the Edge between order and chaos. And they will just as predictably fail in numerous ways. So the contemporary debate is about government and regulation and legitimacy--can corruption be overcome as it alone is now sufficient to ensure greater systemic failure? And, at the micro/household level, how much COST should be incurred to attempt to insure against systemic collapse and the corruption that now accompanies it like a witch's familiar? Do you just buy some gold coins, or move to a farm?
I like this post and like the response to it. This is what ZH is here to help think through. The article and report miss the obvious link to systemic corruption, crime and deligitimization of authority on the part of our Dear Leaders, and many here also subscribe to the Evil Overlord Has It All Planned Out theory (I don't....yet). So that about sums it up for me.
Keep it rollin' Tyler, til they come with the drones and bots for you. God Bless ZH and what remains of the United States of America.
+1. I have been harping for some time on the notion of social complexity. Not unlike Rome or the Mayan civilization. Not to deter at all from the crimes being committed - but rather to illustrate that such crimes are not unexpected in the terminal stages of system failure.
I still like the saying about history not repeating - but rhyming. And also would add that human behavior is a constant.
Financial collapse of the order envisioned will precipitate a world war. The various gangs of criminals masquerading as leaders will not be able to content themselves with looting their respective populations. They will venture out, and mushroom clouds will bloom.
And responding to a poster above, ONLY those who are strongly religious/tribal will have a possibility of surviving, (if survival is possible). That is the way it was in prehistory, and that is the way that it will be in posthistory.
Here's a recent example of how the failure of a small cog in a big machine can make the wheels come off.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-17769466
We're going to have to ratchet back our consumption one way or the other, our resources are finite. Right now, most people can have the the same things the very rich have, albeit a way cheaper version. Yet the hunger of cheap trinkets continue, there is never enough. Stuff equals wealth in most people's minds. My mother gave me her cashmere sweater, she impressed upon me how much trouble it is to produce one, and how much it cost when she bought it. I did not have the heart to tell her you can buy them now at any large department store. The damn thing looks as good as the day she bought it, the one from Macy's doesn't look so good anymore, even though it's decades newer. We don't have many things we treasure or value. They are not meant to last. We are spending our labors on junk. But that's how its all set up, commerce for the sake of commerce, money needs to flow, money that is rapidly losing it's value, choosing tackier goods that are the facsimile of the real thing.
So what will a collapse do? If money becomes worthless, and we have to start rebuilding, we will perhaps concentrate on the value of things. We would think long and hard about what we trade for. We would start producing again, and with raw materials being higher in cost, we would make them to last. To get back to manufacturing, the layers of regulations that are designed to create a bottleneck for competing upstarts will have to go. We would have to create a system where everyone can join the market, develop their skills to live on, without the hindrance of a government that has built fortifications to keep the little guy out. Washington state was reviewing their laws on cookies baked at home for sale, among other things, cookies are considered a "safe" food. Do they need to be from a commercial kitchen? Good question. There are women who can bake cookies that will bring tears of joy to your eyes, but they can't sell them to you, because of food giants who have made it so, with the government in support. Nabisco may not be able to crank up their machines without continuous tons of input, but the housewife will be able to cook hers in batches. Fewer processed foods, no more fake cheese! Remember the pictures of farmer's markets sprouting up all over Russia after the collapse? Same thing.
It will be horrendous for a while. But we have hundreds of thousands of acres of farmland. We have resources, we have the know how. If that's what it takes to rid ourselves of the monkey on our backs, so be it. The financial system as it exists now, has to go. The system is unsustainable. The lifestyle it imposes so it can live, is killing the rest of us. Only thing we have to ensure is that the reset takes them out of the picture, not a reset on their terms, otherwise, it will all be for nothing.
+1 for many things. Mostly the recognition that sense of self-worth and status is not based on acquisition of "things." I can only laugh (cry on the inside) to see friends and family caught up in this. The programming is strong and society reinforces it at every turn. Lemmings going off a cliff. The impetus for the pain to come - as well as the blame. Ironic.
Begin to decouple from the system in any way however small or large that you can manage. Pay a little extra and support local markets selling local products, once we prospered this way and we can do it again. You won't have as much choice at first but over time you will develop a REAL economy.
So did you read the part in the article (the referenced 78 page paper titled "Trade Off") that discussed the failure of the "clean water supply" or how about transportation of raw materials like flour eggs, milk and energy...... how about medical supplies???
You know those resources in the form of "hundreds of thousands of acres of farmland"? Those acres require large amounts of fossil fuel to be productive, or many hours of man power with much smaller yields, not enough to feed our population.
Put your feet on the ground, this is about the end/Collapse of our civilization as we know it.... and what comes next may not be better..... (think "Collapse of the Ancient Maya Civilization")
"It will be horrendous for a while..." ROFLMAO (looks like you weren't paying attention in history class.....)
he says lack of money and lack of credit in the same sentence with hyper inflaton. SO which one is it? Does he even know what inflation IS?
From a thread on "What Regulators Should Do After PFG" at Seeking Alpha:
We all really know what regulators should do, do we not?
Force JPM to cover the Largest Silver Short in Human History.
There's a good possibility that every little bit of Derivatives Piled Upon Derivatives Piled Upon Derivatives Piled Upon Derivatives - at least since the failure of LTCM - stems from the Largest Silver Short in Human History.
The Alpha Bank may not have originally been to blame for it.
They may have just inherited it as a favor to our - and other - governments.
But it is THEIRS now. And they can go from Villain of All Markets to Hero of All Markets in one fell swoop by getting rid of it.
It would be THE way to restore trust among retail and small institutional investors and traders worldwide and immediately dilute the BOO! power of the HFTs and the Uber-Bullies among the largest funds.
We could return to world markets that were 99 percent more honest and fair and allow markets to be Creators of Wealth again, rather than the Destroyers of Wealth they have been.
Terence Mckenna - Culture is your operating system
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9c8an2XZ3MU
'the white zone is for loading and unloading only"
Read Zappas autobio.................he talked about this shit coming back in the 80,s.
At least one lesson that I draw from this excellent analysis (and many of the perceptive comments) is that if at all possible one should not live too far from dependable sources of food and water and should be prepared to form self-defense communities with neighbors. I just finished reading a novel based in St. Petersburg during WWII and one of the central characters is captured by the secret police but manages to talk his way out of execution by telling the NKVD colonel that he knows where he can find a dozen eggs. The entire novel is then built around the difficulties he has in finding a dozen eggs anywhere, including the countryside which of course is crawling with Germans. He finally locates an apartment building where an old man has built a chicken coop on the roof and lives in the coop day and night guarding it with a shotgun while his grandson sells eggs to occupants of the building, one at a time.
I'll spare everybody the whole plot line, but the point is that under the circumstances described in this article, food of any kind may simply disappear very quickly, and if you are fortunate to have even a meager supply you better be prepared to guard it with your life. And given the speed with which this analysis cogently argues that the situation can unfold worldwide, none of us should expect to get to the store ahead of everybody else to stock up once the storm is upon us all. By the time it is obvious it will already be too late.
Gee, I make a sensible - albeit provocative - post and get three straight threatening BOO! posts from the KochBots.
I'm not BOO!ed by you fellas EVER anymore - and neither is much of the rest of the world.
Nine Meals to Anarchy:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1024833/Nine-meals-anarchy--Brit...
Security is not only having chickens, but having neighbors who have chickens.
nice read!!!
the total colapse will happen only in the case of something as devastating as an all out nuclear war or a natural disaster of equal or higher magnitude. The financial collapse does not necessarily mean nuclear war, although it is a possible outcome. Optimist will keep PM as a way of insurance against collapse of the fiat currency, not as a shield against the MIRV-s. Preparing for total collapse is like assuming a crash position in a falling plane.
My conclusion is different considering author's linking health of fiat currency ecomony to the looming Peak Oil crises. Specifically our leaders will again look to quick fix solutions. if printing presses no longer providing temporary relief to world debt problem you can lower the World Cost of Production and give relief to the consumer by Lowering the Price of Energy. How do you do that? Answer----Intervention in Middle East again . Not advocating, just observing past history