TrimTabs Explains Why Today's "Very, Very Suspicious" NFP Number Is Really Down 2.9 Million In Past 2 Months
We have examined the nuance of the euphoric jobs data this morning from every angle and by now there should be plenty of 'information' for investors to make their own minds up on its credibility. However, the avuncular CEO of TrimTabs, who despite channeling Lewis Black lately, likely knows this data a little better than the average Jim on the street having collected tax witholdings data for the past 14 years, is modestly apoplectic at the adjustments. In one of his more colorful episodes, and rightfully so, Charles Biderman notes that "Either there is something massively changed in the income tax collection world, or there is something very, very suspicious about today’s BLS hugely positive number," adding, "Actual jobs, not seasonally adjusted, are down 2.9 million over the past two months. It is only after seasonal adjustments – made at the sole discretion of the Bureau of Labor Statistics economists – that 2.9 million fewer jobs gets translated into 446,000 new seasonally adjusted jobs." A 3.3 million "adjustment" solely at the discretion of the BLS? And this from the agency that just admitted it was underestimating the so very critical labor participation rate over the past year? Finally, Biderman wonders whether the BLS is being pressured during an election year to paint an overly optimistic picture by President Obama’s administration in light of these 'real unadjusted job change' facts. Frankly, in light of recent discoveries about the other "impartial" organization, the CBO, we don't think there is any need to wonder at all.
TrimTabs believes the job growth picture lies somewhere in between TrimTabs estimate and the BLS’. Looking forward to February and March, we will have a much cleaner picture of job growth as we move away from the effects of tax law changes, bonus season, and enormous seasonal adjustments.
A comparison of TrimTabs’ real-time withholding tax based employment results versus the BLS’ preliminary and revised results from January 2011 through January 2012 are summarized in the following table:
and from details from his blog (for the press corps to perhaps dig a little deeper):
Obviously I am quite suspicious of the numbers that I see in today’s BLS press release. Remember most financial journalists and even stock market strategists do nothing more than rewrite government press releases. So do not expect very few others to question the good news.
For those of you who care, look at Table B-1, Total Nonfarm Employment in today’s BLS press release. Start with the non seasonally adjusted table that shows that in November 2011, there were 133.172 million actual jobs. Actual jobs dropped by 220,000 jobs in December and actual jobs dropped an additional 2.7 million in January. Only as a result of unknown seasonal adjustments, could the BLS report 243,000 new hires in January.
Yes, the labor market contracts during the winter and expands in the spring and summer. Could this number be manipulated? Of course it could. Is it? I don’t know. Am I the only suspicious soul out here? Hope not. Certainly feels lonely right now.
Finally, and this is a repeat of what we said prior using SIFMA data (so originating at the US banksthemsleves), for the US unemployment to be declining, Federal tax withholdings have to be rising: there is no way around it! Instead, as the chart below shows, trailing quarterly collections have just turned negative.
Q.E.D.
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Bernake: "Scoreboard"
Civilian employment dropped from 140,681,000 in December 2011, to 139,944,000 in January 2012. 737,000, their numbers.
141,070,000 - 139,944,000 = 1,126,000 jobs lost last two monts = bull shit propaganda.
LUUUUCY......YOU HAVE SOME SPLAINING TO DO!
Does anyone have access to data regarding past seasonal changes in the job market? Jobs numbers in Dec/Jan from past years? Any information that might shed light on how they do their adjustments? This would be a great bullshit call for an aspiring journalist or a contrarian. I'm too fucking busy ;)
C'mon people, there is NO WAY that the jobs data was manipulated...not even remotely.
Joe Wiesenthal, the BLS & EVEN BARRY RITHOLTZ all said that the seasonal adjustment (voodoo/shamanic ceremony) that was performed was statistically appropriate and turned what were an absolute (and identifiable) 3 million lost jobs in the prior two months into a net gain of over 440,000 jobs during that same period.
People, if Barry Ritholtz is in agreement, surely Charles Biderman, the CBO (which HAD U3 at a SIGNIFICANTLY higher 10% just DAYS AGO) and anyone else who dare question the methodology employed by the BLS in arriving at their U3 figures, or more significantly, the very U3 data reported by the BLS this morning is merely spewing sour grape and/or is politically opposed to President Obama's reelection and/or is a pessimistic/doomer and/or is a party pooper.
All is well, bitchez!
Enjoy the fantastic recovery.
/SARC-A-LARK-A-LARK-G0-LONG-FACEBOOK-BITCHEZ/
It's getting to be like commissars reporting the results to Comintern of the latest Five-year Plan:
" We need 1,285,311 shoes, how many cows did we raise for leather this month comrade?"
Unemployment 8.3% for January 2012 - 243000 Jobs, Really?
- Economic Populist
...Additionally the 2010 Census data was incorporated into part of the unemployment survey which gives unemployment rates and demographic data. Previously unemployment rates, participation rates were based on the 2000 Census data, with statistical yearly adjustments. Here's the crux of what changed:
Below is a running tally of how many official jobs permanently lost since the official start of this past recession, with the new numbers. Increased population growth, implies the United States needs to create at least 10.27 million jobs or self-employment. This estimate assume a 62.7% civilian non-institutional population to employment ratio, as it was in December 2007, which implies an additional 4.69 million jobs were needed over a 49 month time period beyond the ones already lost.
8.230 million of the 26.87 million part-timers working low hours are doing so because they cannot get full time jobs. We cannot compare the change from last month due to the Census adjustments added to the December data. So, one needs to realize that's a hell of a lot of people stuck in part-time jobs who need full-time work.
The employment to population ratio is now 58.5%, no change from last month and at record lows. You have to go back to the severe recession of 1983, October to find such low ratios. The uber-low ratios are not a structural change, such as all families decided to have a stay at home caretaker, or magically a host of people could retire early, or magically all young people went to school as some want to claim. The low employment to population ratio are people dropping out of the labor count. Once can see this simply by the cliff dive on the ratio during 2008-2010. There is no way magically, suddenly, a huge increase of population volunteered to drop out of the labor force. These ratios are with the 2010 Census population adjustments incorporated.
These numbers are important because unemployment is a ratio, percentage or during a limited time period, the number of people actively looking for a job and counted. Many people are not counted in the official unemployment statistics, yet when looking behind the official numbers it's clear America has more potential workers and less jobs in so called recovery than during one of the worst post WWII recessions.
The January 2012 unemployment report incorporated many statistical adjustments. Additionally one cannot compare the monthly changes between December and January because all of the adjustments are added to the December 2011 data only, not spread out over the entire year, which makes a monthly comparison statistically invalid.
We'll be reviewing sections of this months unemployment report in excruciating detail so check back! Leave your questions in the comments and we'll try to dig out the answer in the BLS data.
Unemployment 8.3% for January 2012 - 243000 Jobs, Really?
- Economic Populist
Lol! Two prize fights in one weekend.
1st: Mark to unicorn zombie banks vs. recently defunct hedge fund CDS...on the obvious impending Greek default...often over the last 12 months referred to as a "soft reprofiling."
2nd: Zerohedge/Rick Santelli vs. Reuters
http://jmp.io/sLC
Let's get ready to ruuuuuuuuuuuuuuumble!
Oh, I'm sorry...I didn't really explain. The link comes from the twitter account @ForexFranky. Forex Franky is a push account for Reuters as far as I can tell. I have made a small deductive leap here. Although Reuters is not in the link address, the boneheads don't even bother to change the color scheme from the usual Reuters site...where you can buckets and buckets of establishment vomit on a daily basis.
I'm not sure how much a lot you ZHer's know about "News Service" but a lot of the clap trap you see in the MSM is simply regurgitated wire copy that pours forth from "the establishment" minute to minute. I should know. My father was in the business for decades and at war with these "news wire" guys on a perpetual basis. After all, it is a lot easier to simply rip the print from the wire and run with it...rather than investigate, write, or stick you neck out in any way. My old man...he was not build like that.
Anyone else google "Avuncular"? lol
And by google, I mean use "Duck Duck Go" as I have become more concerned with online data mining.
reuters is a Rothschild entity
It is quite clear that the MSM is trying desperately to get attention...while trying not to look desperate doing so...and sometimes not really representing itself clearly. Old media is dying in this world, and while I'm pretty sure that those boardrooms are constantly filled with conversation that sound like "we're not getting our message out" or "we need to be forward looking"...the truth is, that Average Joe, who is supposed to be dumb as a rock mind you, has long since figured out that the Reuters of the world, the NBCs, the CBSs, the NYTs...are full of shit.
It isn't a matter of "getting their message out" in a new way...it is the failure of their integrity.
As for the Rothschilds...I'll leave that one to you.
I think you're the first person ever to quote Joe Weaselthal.
Wow! 243000 New Jobs Created in January
The Economic Populist Speak Your Mind 2 Cents at a Time
Wow! 243,000 New Jobs Created in January
Submitted by Numerian on Fri, 02/03/2012 - 10:24
While a whopping number of jobs were created in January, a far larger number of people left the labor force - 1,752,000 in fact. The percent of the total working population who did not have jobs rose to 36.7%, an all time high. It’s no wonder the unemployment rate fell, when the denominator shrinks so markedly. The total number of people employed fell by 737,000. So what do you want to celebrate – the 243,000 who got jobs, or the million or so people who dropped by the wayside and are no longer counted in the data?
It makes you wonder how much faith you can put in the Labor Department reports. For example, the government, the business press, and Wall Street rarely report on the fundamental ways in which the US labor market is changing, with so many people dropping out of the work force. The press has had a hard enough time getting to grips with the Labor Department’s Birth/Death model, which over time adds to the number of people reported as employed. The model is supposed to compensate for the inability of the government to get good information on the number of new businesses created every month and which presumably add to employment. The problem is the model has been shown in the past to have significantly overestimated the number of jobs created by new businesses. Economists still don’t know if the model is appropriate, and how much of the 243,000 jobs created this month are the result of the Birth/Death model.
Arthor we do not have the secrets of the BLS but typically it was normal to correct, maybe 0.2% for seasonal adjustments. And you can justify the "smoothing" of the numbers.
The latest adjustment was 0.5%!!!!! This is why everyone is screaming and yelling. It is a complete deviation from the past and complete bullshit.
I mean why not make it 1% if you really want some propaganda points, WTF, just make it 6% by election day.
No but this is what I sent to the DOL OIG seeking an investigation for the DOL BLS UE calculation and responses.
I remain unwilling to believe that the entire BLS office gets up in the morning and rides the Metro to work with the intention of spending every day of their career lying.
But.
I *would* believe that seasonal adjustments that expect big ramp ups in Spring and Summer to do home building are based on a decade's worth of norms that no longer apply. Then in winter they would try to balance out the plummet in the raw number by an estimate of how many home building jobs shut down and adjust upward to deal with that.
In other words, the seasonal adjustments are not properly redefined for the New Normal. The seasonal tweaks are wrong and the overall tweaks are wrong.
They are living in the past.
What about the Fed, Treasury, FBI, DEA, FEMA, on and on. They don't lie, do they?
Too hard to believe little ol' BLS lies? LOL. They all fucking lie - starts top down. Government is corrupt through and through.
Remember this one:
Now listen to me loud and clear. This is the last time I will say this. I did not have sexual relations with Miss Lewinsky, not once, not ever.
LIE.
It's called compartmentalisation. The further up the chain the numbers go, the bigger the "adjustments".
In addition, the participation rate for those 55 years and up is at multi decade highs, so the entire drop in the laborce is falling on the shoulders of those below 55.
TheSilverJounal.com
B L S
Bullshit. Lie. Steal
Bollocks.
/nm
If you're going to hate, at least be right. It's pretty clear he's calling bullshit on the propaganda that the US is gaining jobs.
This is the real Friday Humor.
I was feeling kind of bad about the phony BLS statistics that are leading a lot of people into delusional ruin when I realized that our valiant FBI guardians of domestic justice are all busy busting dangerous fake NFL merchandise hucksters in Indianapolis.
To quack or not to quack: that is the question?
"Huckster" & "snake oil" can be inadvertently (or deliberately) used to besmirch the works of Hoxsey & a like...
while i'm at it... the "tin foil hats" phrase patronizes orgone collectors, such as the one adorned by Aleister Crowley.
http://www.crystalinks.com/crowley.html
See Royal Raymond Rife & William Reich for more.
SJ, I wasn't hating.
I just couldn't find the numbers he referenced and thought he might actually be mocking TrimTabs. I found his numbers later, on Table A-1, and answered my own questions.
Of course these numbers are completly bogus! When is the last time the government released a legit number?!
http://silverliberationarmy.blogspot.com/
Asskeys, the government statistics are 100% true (just had my 2nd blue pill for the day, they are not as effective as the use to!)
Fewer people working, but if the BLS can make the denominator smaller at a faster rate than the job losses the unemployment rate will continue to drop. Soon the denominator will be zero, no jobs left and 0% unemployment just in time for November!
Biderman is basing his case on withholding taxes up until the end of December but Adler on another ZH article shows the graph right through January and taxes clearly spike in that month until the last week:
"The real time Federal Withholding Tax daily data for January, which I dutifully cover each week in the Treasury updates, showed a massive surge beginning in late December." Adler surmises that there could have been a large amount of money in bonuses and sales commissions paid out in that time leading the BLS to interpret this as being from an increase in employment rather than from higher pay for some and seasonally adjust the jobs number incorrectly.
http://www.zerohedge.com/contributed/deconstructing-massive-beat-employment-data
STOP THE PRESSES! STOPPPPPPPP THE PRESSES! Apperently "the voices of Zero Hedge have been heard" and "the BLS has now responded" such that ALL THE WORLD can now know PRECISELY how these numbers were arrived at:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=EhbxI5eVnM4
i agree "this a rather spirited form of number crunching." I mean...what else can i say? Clearly the video speaks for itself....
The old Disraeli quote comes to mind, "There are lies, damned lies, and statistics."
Even better is a quote I've run across lately, by the historian Andrew Lang: "Some people use statistics as a drunken man uses lampposts- for support rather than illumination."
The BLS needs its own 12-step program. (And notice that we have used its correctly here, grammar Nazis.)
And what is the root word of "statistics?"
asstics?
Heh. No. It's "statist."
What it's is a lie.
I saw a statistic once that said that 79.8% of ALL statistics are made on the spot.
grammar Nazi #6 agrees
the GN thing is in the blood, don't hate us
If millions of jobs were lost in a forest, and no one was around to report it, were they really lost? Or something like that...
I'll say it again... Vaporized.
It now appears that the Gubment has 100% control/cooperation of all the MSM (Main Slime Media). No one, I repeat, NO ONE has done anything but regurgitate the outlandish BS from BLS. NO ONE in the media has had the temerity, spine or integrity to examine the BLS numbers and reveal just what exactly this admin has been doing.
In the past I have felt sorry for the way things were going in this country.....now I fear for the way things are going.
This will not end well!
Just saw Maria Fartiroma with Bob Pissonme talking shit about the great recovery. Maria looks like she's got those fat old lady tits now, all saggy. This station is better than comedy channel
maria was the biggest whore on the floor back in the day, bj's for everyone with a nice title
O got one...women could suck a golf ball thru a garden hose
Hey, we're supposed to be denegrating Maria here not pointing out her pos. attributes!
She could debone a chicken with her tongue.
Is there any ZH'er anywhere who does not know the "real" score? I didn't think so. Tough living amongst such fools.
it's so hard knowing you're right and know the truth...
Tell me about it. I try to enlighten my family and friends and they simply DO NOT want to hear the truth and act like it is me that is misinformed. Very, very sad and frustrating. Humans are clearly defective and need to be extinctified. Too bad we will eat anything and breed like cockroaches.
"what the american people don't know, is what makes them the american people" ray zalinksi on Tommy Boy...
You should watch my family's eyes glaze over when I show them a gold or silver coin and explain why I add to my family's stack every chance I get. They think the coins are neat-o novelties I found in a cracker jack box. And my dad is supposed to be smart - he's got the dreaded P-h-D after his name and is a college professor, but might be the biggest sheep person I know. I've got a 2 year old and a 2 month old, and those boys will be raised with eyes WIDE open to avoid all the mistakes their pop made his first 35 years, simply because he didn't know any better.
hide your gold from your family. ex. identify theft is perpetrated most by family members praying on family members. when the shit hit fan; your daddy will come a knock'n and a begg'n; cut bait, protect your youngs.
Gave up trying to educate others long ago my friend. Even my dad, a 20+ year Wall St vet retired in 99 just cannot get his head around the fact this is a totally different market (in fact it's no market at all) with NO RULES, certainly no rule of law. Won't read my emails and won't talk to me about market conditions. Says he is prepared, has reallocated his money. Problem is it's all in paper; doesn't own so much as a gold bracelet. He's gonna get destroyed but refuses to listen. It's just tragic, but hey I've done all I can do. Have fun shinin shoes into your 90s pop.
No, It's fucking frustrating,,,I say.
My days consist of trading from home and reading ZH and a few other sites.
Then I go out into the world. Meet up with friends, have drinks, dinner and chat with them. Occasionally the topic of the economy, politics, the stock market come up.
I listen to them talk, I see many of them are for the most part "happy". And I can't help but to think...My god, maybe they were right after all. Maybe ignorance is indeed bliss.
My day consists of wondering why I should go out and do my job. Then I check zerohedge. rinse, repeat.
I have started carrying around 2 pre-64 quarters and 2 Pre-soviet collapse coins (they are nice cause they say CCCP). What is the difference between these two coins?
Reality.
uhhhhh...........what?............
Just like we will soon, the Soviets currency collapsed. The coins are just worthless relics of an age where everyone thought the government was the be all and end all.
Ah. Ok. got it. sorry. It didn't quite click at first.
Alien-IQ "I listen to them talk, I see many of them are for the most part "happy". And I can't help but to think...My god, maybe they were right after all. Maybe ignorance is indeed bliss."
Things might get a little worse, but all the data from the past few months is showing the economy, housing, labor, starting to turn around. Things are looking up. You know, they may be right. Just remember that old song. . . .
Smilers never lose, and frowners never win.
So open up your heart and let the sunshine in.
In a thread about "suspicious government statistics" which contains, at it's beginning, a video that clearly shows that the government statistics are bullshit...You are trying to suggest that things seem to be getting better according to government statistics.
Do you see the irony in this? Or are you really that...Blissful?
perfect
A fool and his money... ever see the blissful look of a vilage idiot? look in the mirror
Election year? Maybe.
I think though the trend will continue post elections.
In US citizenism, an ignored problem is a solved problem.
To ignore is to solve. A new one for my repertoire. +1
BLS
Bullshit, Lies and Shit.....er.......Statistics.
Bureau of Lying Sadistics?
Wouldn't that be Bureau of Lying Sadists?
You would be correct as sadistic is an adjective...thank you for noticing my grammatical oversight.
Bureau of Luddite Socialists?
BorderLine pSychotics
Unfortunately USSA has embarked on a course of lying and data manipulation seen too often in Argentina / Russia etc... There is little to be done right now. Investor lemmings have lost their ability to critically analyse data and will follow the line upward as long as Benny prints until total catastrophic collapse like seen in the previous examples.
Most funds are forced to. They need returns and thanks to ZIRP don't have a choice in terms of risk profile. For them, it is risk-on or insolvency. Scary.
it is risk-on then insolvency
start packing bags.. last one turns off the lights!
government that is out of control and knee deep into manipulation and blatant propanda efforts will stop at nothing.
there is no hope, there is no change, there is only the one-way train straight into the FEMA camps for all that dare question government.
Romney, Gingrich, Obama or whoever else is coming to enact the laws..
Be that as it may Mr. Biderman, but everyone who has been bearish for the last 25% up move in the S&P has gotten their ass handed to them. At some point this market is going to correct but as long as I'm on the right side of the trade, I don't give a shit.
come back to us when the internet is down, and your momma ain't there to make the boo-boo go away!
Stocks are up on money printing. But they are up. The money won't stop flowing because everyone is terrified of where the bottom might be if they stop.
I'd rather be on the side of doing what is right than have a few extra bucks in my hand because Ben decided to make life a lot harder for some poor people.
So what you are saying is that you are not bothered by fraud and manipulation as long as you can make money on it?
Many who caught all the upside from Oct 4th also caught most of the downside since S&P 1,370 in May.
Unless the low is in for the year, both opinions can still make money.
Not seasonal adjusted the U-6 unemployment rate increased from 15.2 to 16.2%. Actual and Make Believe data are conflicting. When the real data sucks, just fudge it.
i know ZH loves killing GS market calls quite rightly so
but they made a call on the Russell2000 seems they were looking for 835-
its got very close in double quick time
SEARS, BANK OF AMERICA, AMERICAN AIRLINES, BARCLAYS, MORGAN STANLEY, MICROSOFT, HSBC
All say word up in January.
You're telling me the government would lie to its own people? Who would have ever thought /sarc/
If I had panties I'd throw them at this guy.
Suspicious indeed good sir. Suspicious indeed.