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UBS' Releases Most Dire Prediction To Date: Greece To Experience "Coercive" Restructuring With CDS Triggering Around March
UBS, which has been issuing ever gloomier forecasts over the past few months, with the sole intent of getting someone to bail out the European financial system, which despite the current stay of execution is increasingly more brittle (because solvency crises only get worse with time, never better), has just come out with its magnum opus. In a report released overnight, the firm's Global Rates Team has just jumped the shark, with a prediction that things in Europe are literally about to implode: "we anticipate that the crisis will deteriorate further than the stressed levels of late November. We do not believe that Greek PSI will take place in a “voluntary” fashion but instead expect coercive restructuring of Greek debt either before or soon after the March redemption, triggering CDS contracts. Greece is not likely to decide to leave the euro area in 2012, though the risks of that happening have certainly increased." And as we well know from previous UBS reports, a departure of a country from the Eurozone would lead to a mass splurge in purchases of guns, spam and gold. So is this merely a last ditch call for a bailout from someone, anyone: either Fed or ECB will do? Most likely. Because if while the general market continues to ignore Europe, and European banks are out there literally screaming the end is nigh, then the truth is surely somewhere inbetween. Especially, if as Reuters reports, Greece is just the beginning. "One of Portugal's most prominent business leaders has moved his family holding company to Holland partly because of uncertainty over whether the country will remain in the euro, Alexandre Soares dos Santos said in a newspaper interview on Saturday. Soares dos Santos, who is chairman of the board of Jeronimo Martins, caused a stir in Portugal this week when it emerged that his family holding company that controls the country's second largest retailer had moved to Holland...."I also don't know if Portugal will stay in the euro. And if it leaves, it will be to the escudo," Soares dos Santos told Expresso, referring to the escudo currency used by Portugal before it adopted the euro. "I have a right to defend my property."" So while everyone continues to expect the best, those who really matter are planning for the worst.
From Reuters:
Asked if the transfer had to do with the risk of leaving the euro, Soares dos Santos said: "Clearly. Since 2008 our economic consultants have talked about this."
Jeronimo Martins has been one of Portugal's most successful companies in recent years after having built up a large business in Poland, where it is now the biggest food retailer.
Portugal is currently going through tough austerity under a 78-billion-euro bailout by the European Union and IMF which has sent the country into its deepest recession in decades.
Soares dos Santos said the decision to move the holding to Holland had also been motivated by lack of financing by Portuguese banks, which have been hit hard by the euro zone debt crisis.
Jeronimo Martins has said there is no impact on its tax position from the move by its biggest shareholder.
And back to UBS, which may be on to something:
The 2012 trading year will begin in earnest with the release of Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls data. This release will either provide more confirmation of progressive forward movement in the U.S. economy or undermine this nascent optimism and allow the unfolding events in Europe to influence the price action. It continues to be a bimodal world and investors have remained close to benchmarks as they wait for a dominant theme to emerge.
Political risk continues to pollute the investment landscape. In the U.S., President Obama appears to be staking out a strategy of making Congressional dysfunction his main issue, pushing forward with political appointments during the holiday recess and posing as the populist advocate. The Payroll Tax Relief bill expires – somewhat appropriately – on February 29, providing a near term casus belli for the ideologues in Congress. The Republicans are waging internecine war as they move through the primaries, a process which will likely come to a resolution by late winter. The Supreme Court will soon hear cases on the President’s health care reform and Arizona immigration laws and is expected to issue a decision by early Summer. From that point on the focus will deservedly be on the November 6 election. The House is likely to remain in Republican hands, the Senate is anticipated to move towards an even split (with some pundits looking for an incremental Republican edge), while President Obama holds a 51% margin (intrade.com) over the yet to be determined Republican nominee. As all these events unfold, the prospects for any significant fiscal package, regulatory clarification, or tax reform remain nil.
With little help from the fiscal side, the U.S. economy is expected to continue to move forward at a 2.25% pace over the calendar year (annual change), with inflation by most metrics holding to around 2.0%. The Unemployment Rate will remain stubbornly high – we currently forecast 8.6% at year end. The Fed is expected to remain locked down at 0.0% on the policy rate with the Open Market Desk continuing to shift the remaining balance of risk ($266 billion) towards the long intermediate and long end of the curve by June 30. While it’s not our expectation that the central bank will engage in further supportive measures such as QE, we do acknowledge the ongoing dovish tone of the FOMC Minutes as well as the cast of their public comments.
Against this backdrop of political events and economic activity we caution against taking duration risk. We see opportunities to enhance relative return along the curve, and advocate positioning for flatteners in the 2s/5s and 10s/30s parts of the curve, while forecasting a steepening in the 5s/15s sector. In the current refi-constrained world, volatility hedging remains subdued and vega is expected to decline. Lower long dated volatility and a stagnant to declining supply of mortgage product are expected to be supportive of the basis. The foreign official and Open Market Desk bid for MBS should also favor a narrower basis. As befits the parlous state of affairs, we advocate a tactical long position in gamma on 10- and 30- year tails. This can be funded with short gamma on five year tails where we expect little volatility in any outcome and short position in intermediate vega.
In Europe, events are expected to continue to move along a spasmodic evolutionary path. Greece will remain at the forefront of the crisis. We do not believe that Greek PSI will take place in a “voluntary” fashion but instead expect coercive restructuring of Greek debt either before or soon after the March redemption, triggering CDS contracts. Greece is not likely to decide to leave the euro area in 2012, though the risks of that happening have certainly increased.
As a result of the above - and other factors – we anticipate that the crisis will deteriorate further than the stressed levels of late November. As the situation becomes more disorderly, we anticipate a “big bang” commitment to future common debt issuance from governments, as well as institutional change to ensure fiscal discipline. The ECB will probably not provide the solution to the crisis by itself, but it might act to buy time for governments if they commit themselves in this way. We recommend buying the periphery when the commitment is made, even after a significant spread tightening. From then on, fade significant weakness in core spreads to swaps.
Our only question: what happens if no commitment is made and/or the only one with the ability to bail out Europe, and the world, remains the Fed?
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Individuals can be convinced that freedom for themselves can only be secured by permitting others to be free. Individual freedom must be accepted as being culturally desirable. The tyrants wouldn't spend so much time and effort brainwashing people if the minds of free individuals couldn't be used as effective weapons against them.
I beg to differ CA. Individual freedom may be desirable for some of us, but that requires also a huge individual effort to learn, to have your own opinions, to know what is best for you and your family, to be architect of your destiny... and many many people don't really want to be responsible, don't want to take the pains of deciding for themselves... it's easier to be told what to do and what to think, and that is why tyrants will always exist, because of people that prefer to the guided rather than deciding individually... it's easier and less risky to go with the tide.
The problem with libertarians is imho that we don't want to be told what to do and what to think, and that is not convenient for the leading classes that try to make us all sheeple and maybe ridicule those of us who resist to be part of the mass.
>>>Individuals can be convinced that freedom for themselves can only be secured by permitting others to be free.<<<
Odd that Ron Paul doesn't see it that way.
That's why I'm not falling his bastardized libertarianism.
Libertarianism for less than 50% of the population; state enforced pregnancy for the majority that have wombs.
He's a tyrant wrapped in his version of the constitution.
"the entire basis of libertarian philosophy is fundamentally flawed" I think you are exaggerating.
OK, there is this simplifying myth of the autarchic rancher/farmer that only needs the "outer world" (beyond a few bordering friends) for some frills for his womenfolk. Very romantic and fundamentally flawed, yes.
But is it the entire basis? Ludwig von Mises, for example, came from a metropolis and laid foundations of thought that have nothing to do with the fabled lifestyle of the redneck conqueror of the underpopulated fertile US plains.
Most libertarians rally against government corruption and crony capitalism, but in looking for the solution they cannot think past the current paradigm. Without government, the corrupters become the tyrants in their own right and simply eliminate the middle-man. The history books are full of examples of societies run by Lords, Kings, tyrants, Princes, Beloved Leaders, Local Warlords, Tribal heads, etc. There are relatively fewer examples of representative government, and most of those are pretty recent. There are no examples of which I am aware of in which there is no government and no tyrant, warlord, etc. Nature -- and tyrants -- abhore a vacuum.
Very well said....
When examining the political economy, do not focus on the strengths but on the modes of failure. This is something the Libertarians and Randists completely miss...
Yes. Agreed.
So, even if pigs fly and RP becomes president, expect more of the same.
Oligarchs did a good job of robbing former revolutionary soldiers without the help of the FED.
Shay's Rebellion anyone?
Interesting that Soares dos Santos chose the Netherlands as his bolt hole. This is clearly a very smart guy. Not too many people understand how strong and independent the Dutch are - nobody tells them what to do or how to do it. Read the history of the Nazi occupation of the Netherlands and you'll understand - they were the only country in Europe to effectively resist the Germans, just as they will resist occupation by the EU, while not provoking retaliation.
I'd say the Swiss did a better job than the Dutch at resisting occupation. A rifle behind every blade of grass kept the Nazis out completely.
The NAZIs could have taken Switzerland any time they wanted, but they wanted Switzerland neutral for other reasons. It's still good that the Swiss arm virtually everybody.
"will resist occupation by the EU" LOL
are you serious?
Morning Ghordius - my point is not that they were not occupied by the Nazis, or have not been occupied by the EU, but that they did and will resist more effectively than any other people under occupation. Sometimes you can't prevent superior force from taking over, but it is how smart you are about resisting that will determine how well you survive. So yes, I am very serious. Americans have a lot to learn from the Dutch and my feeling is we had better start learning fast.
As for the Swiss - different matter. They were not occupied, they collaborated, and were more useful to the Nazis left untouched. As a 'safe haven' for the wealth of Europe huge fortunes flowed into their bank vaults, and we pretty well know what ultimately happened to that wealth - which of course did not get returned to its rightful owners or their heirs except under extreme duress and even then only in isolated cases. In fact a lot of it wound up financing the re-establishment of high level Nazi criminals in Latin America where their grandchildren now live in grand compounds plotting a return to the vaterland.
Thanks, I was wondering that. I've favored Norway myself, and hadn't considered Holland. I'll look into that now.
He should to, before he writes such things.
"Geert Mak, the Dutch author, insisted that happiness is tied directly to the social system. We were sitting at his favorite cafe, a hangout of Dutch journalists since the end of World War II, and the genial, old-wood setting of the place, as well as its location, around the corner from the Dam and the center of the city’s history, added a bit of luster to his words and reminded me, for the thousandth time, why I’m still here, despite the downside. “One problem with the American system,” he said, “is that if you lose your job and are without an income, that’s not just bad for you but for the economy. Our system has more security. And I think it makes our quality of life better. My American friends say they live in the best country in the world, and in a lot of ways they are right. But they always have to worry: ‘What happens to my family if I have a heart attack? What happens when I turn 65 or 70?’ America is the land of the free. But I think we are freer.” http://www.nytimes.com/2009/05/03/magazine/03european-t.html?pagewanted=...
Hi PMakoi - Norway is a great society but the Netherlands is far better living from just about every angle IMO. Spent three years working there and Amsterdam is one of my absolute all-time favorite cities, for many many reasons. And I'm a country boy who doesn't like cities that much. More centrally located - easy to get anywhere in Europe. Highly civilized people ( not that the Norweigens aren't). Music, art, sports. Everybody works at getting along. Great food. Cheap cheap flowers - our apartment was filled with them every day. Endless things to do at night. Great beaches. Plenty of jobs if you are qualified. Bureaucracy not too bad considering this is Europe. Once you have made friends you have friends for life. Terrific educational system. High quality of life in every detail. High level of social consciousness. There are downsides. Winter is very cold, wet and windy. Seems like everybody smokes - even while eating in restaurants. Street people from all over the world. Etc. But overall I would go back and live there the rest of my life in a heartbeat if I could. I've written a little ebook on the subject if you like - Cultural Dimensions of Expatriate Life in The Netherlands. It's an Amazon Kindle title.
It's not just the rich leaving Euro countries. Professionals are said to be leaving Greece in droves. Same in Ireland. And any middle class workers that can. You can be sure this is starting in Portugal and Spain. That worsens the prospects for recovery in this generation. Just like used to happen in Sth American and African countries
Welcome to the Divergence of European equity markets ( C/E)!
This is so funny...people are worried about greece, about france, about portugal, about spain, about ireland, and all the other idiots.
Are people worried about where to put their money? Is that the big problem?
If that's the problem I'll tell you for free right here on ZH. But before I do...is there someone....anyone; maybe in outerspace that can point out the glaringly obvious? (I won't say it yet) I just want to know if anyone can see it, I know I sound redundant but there is a HUGE elephant in the room.
There's a problem with France?
He already mentioned France.
@bob_dabolina - I hate this BS - if you want us to pay for your advice say so. Don't make us play guessing games. I'm not paying for your advice BTW.
I'll deduce that you're saying there's not going to be any money to put anywhere when the smoke begins to clear. We talk about deflation/inflation but one has to have assets in order to be affected by either. No assets, no problem. Credit money eventually goes back to where it started: electrons.
The answer: GOLD and SILVER
Then be patient
ALL! of You(s)!! are Terrorists!
I am saw something! now I am calling it in!!
More than 7 days of Food? (cookies and icecream count fat boy!)
Water Proofed Ammo? (if you dive and have a bang stick!)
Christian? (Your wife makes you go to Church!)
Constitutionalist (You believe the Founding Fathers were Brilliant and trying to protect us from Bush and Obama!)
Yep!
FEMA Camp for ALL of YOU(s)!!
and me too, of course!
Fuck The Government! cause they are Fucking You!
God Bless You ALL!!
The Constitution of the United States: A Transcription
Note: The following text is a transcription of the Constitution in its original form.
Items that are hyperlinked have since been amended or superseded.
We the People of the United States, in Order to form a more perfect Union, establish Justice, insure domestic Tranquility, provide for the common defence, promote the general Welfare, and secure the Blessings of Liberty to ourselves and our Posterity, do ordain and establish this Constitution for the United States of America.
Article. I.
Section. 1.
All legislative Powers herein granted shall be vested in a Congress of the United States, which shall consist of a Senate and House of Representatives.
Section. 2.
The House of Representatives shall be composed of Members chosen every second Year by the People of the several States, and the Electors in each State shall have the Qualifications requisite for Electors of the most numerous Branch of the State Legislature.
No Person shall be a Representative who shall not have attained to the Age of twenty five Years, and been seven Years a Citizen of the United States, and who shall not, when elected, be an Inhabitant of that State in which he shall be chosen.
Representatives and direct Taxes shall be apportioned among the several States which may be included within this Union, according to their respective Numbers, which shall be determined by adding to the whole Number of free Persons, including those bound to Service for a Term of Years, and excluding Indians not taxed, three fifths of all other Persons. The actual Enumeration shall be made within three Years after the first Meeting of the Congress of the United States, and within every subsequent Term of ten Years, in such Manner as they shall by Law direct. The Number of Representatives shall not exceed one for every thirty Thousand, but each State shall have at Least one Representative; and until such enumeration shall be made, the State of New Hampshire shall be entitled to chuse three, Massachusetts eight, Rhode-Island and Providence Plantations one, Connecticut five, New-York six, New Jersey four, Pennsylvania eight, Delaware one, Maryland six, Virginia ten, North Carolina five, South Carolina five, and Georgia three.
When vacancies happen in the Representation from any State, the Executive Authority thereof shall issue Writs of Election to fill such Vacancies.
The House of Representatives shall chuse their Speaker and other Officers; and shall have the sole Power of Impeachment.
Section. 3.
The Senate of the United States shall be composed of two Senators from each State, chosen by the Legislature thereof for six Years; and each Senator shall have one Vote.
Immediately after they shall be assembled in Consequence of the first Election, they shall be divided as equally as may be into three Classes. The Seats of the Senators of the first Class shall be vacated at the Expiration of the second Year, of the second Class at the Expiration of the fourth Year, and of the third Class at the Expiration of the sixth Year, so that one third may be chosen every second Year; and if Vacancies happen by Resignation, or otherwise, during the Recess of the Legislature of any State, the Executive thereof may make temporary Appointments until the next Meeting of the Legislature, which shall then fill such Vacancies.
No Person shall be a Senator who shall not have attained to the Age of thirty Years, and been nine Years a Citizen of the United States, and who shall not, when elected, be an Inhabitant of that State for which he shall be chosen.
The Vice President of the United States shall be President of the Senate, but shall have no Vote, unless they be equally divided.
The Senate shall chuse their other Officers, and also a President pro tempore, in the Absence of the Vice President, or when he shall exercise the Office of President of the United States.
The Senate shall have the sole Power to try all Impeachments. When sitting for that Purpose, they shall be on Oath or Affirmation. When the President of the United States is tried, the Chief Justice shall preside: And no Person shall be convicted without the Concurrence of two thirds of the Members present.
Judgment in Cases of Impeachment shall not extend further than to removal from Office, and disqualification to hold and enjoy any Office of honor, Trust or Profit under the United States: but the Party convicted shall nevertheless be liable and subject to Indictment, Trial, Judgment and Punishment, according to Law.
Section. 4.
The Times, Places and Manner of holding Elections for Senators and Representatives, shall be prescribed in each State by the Legislature thereof; but the Congress may at any time by Law make or alter such Regulations, except as to the Places of chusing Senators.
The Congress shall assemble at least once in every Year, and such Meeting shall be on the first Monday in December, unless they shall by Law appoint a different Day.
Section. 5.
Each House shall be the Judge of the Elections, Returns and Qualifications of its own Members, and a Majority of each shall constitute a Quorum to do Business; but a smaller Number may adjourn from day to day, and may be authorized to compel the Attendance of absent Members, in such Manner, and under such Penalties as each House may provide.
Each House may determine the Rules of its Proceedings, punish its Members for disorderly Behaviour, and, with the Concurrence of two thirds, expel a Member.
Each House shall keep a Journal of its Proceedings, and from time to time publish the same, excepting such Parts as may in their Judgment require Secrecy; and the Yeas and Nays of the Members of either House on any question shall, at the Desire of one fifth of those Present, be entered on the Journal.
Neither House, during the Session of Congress, shall, without the Consent of the other, adjourn for more than three days, nor to any other Place than that in which the two Houses shall be sitting.
Section. 6.
The Senators and Representatives shall receive a Compensation for their Services, to be ascertained by Law, and paid out of the Treasury of the United States. They shall in all Cases, except Treason, Felony and Breach of the Peace, be privileged from Arrest during their Attendance at the Session of their respective Houses, and in going to and returning from the same; and for any Speech or Debate in either House, they shall not be questioned in any other Place.
No Senator or Representative shall, during the Time for which he was elected, be appointed to any civil Office under the Authority of the United States, which shall have been created, or the Emoluments whereof shall have been encreased during such time; and no Person holding any Office under the United States, shall be a Member of either House during his Continuance in Office.
Section. 7.
All Bills for raising Revenue shall originate in the House of Representatives; but the Senate may propose or concur with Amendments as on other Bills.
Every Bill which shall have passed the House of Representatives and the Senate, shall, before it become a Law, be presented to the President of the United States: If he approve he shall sign it, but if not he shall return it, with his Objections to that House in which it shall have originated, who shall enter the Objections at large on their Journal, and proceed to reconsider it. If after such Reconsideration two thirds of that House shall agree to pass the Bill, it shall be sent, together with the Objections, to the other House, by which it shall likewise be reconsidered, and if approved by two thirds of that House, it shall become a Law. But in all such Cases the Votes of both Houses shall be determined by yeas and Nays, and the Names of the Persons voting for and against the Bill shall be entered on the Journal of each House respectively. If any Bill shall not be returned by the President within ten Days (Sundays excepted) after it shall have been presented to him, the Same shall be a Law, in like Manner as if he had signed it, unless the Congress by their Adjournment prevent its Return, in which Case it shall not be a Law.
Every Order, Resolution, or Vote to which the Concurrence of the Senate and House of Representatives may be necessary (except on a question of Adjournment) shall be presented to the President of the United States; and before the Same shall take Effect, shall be approved by him, or being disapproved by him, shall be repassed by two thirds of the Senate and House of Representatives, according to the Rules and Limitations prescribed in the Case of a Bill.
Section. 8.
The Congress shall have Power To lay and collect Taxes, Duties, Imposts and Excises, to pay the Debts and provide for the common Defence and general Welfare of the United States; but all Duties, Imposts and Excises shall be uniform throughout the United States;
To borrow Money on the credit of the United States;
To regulate Commerce with foreign Nations, and among the several States, and with the Indian Tribes;
To establish an uniform Rule of Naturalization, and uniform Laws on the subject of Bankruptcies throughout the United States;
To coin Money, regulate the Value thereof, and of foreign Coin, and fix the Standard of Weights and Measures;
To provide for the Punishment of counterfeiting the Securities and current Coin of the United States;
To establish Post Offices and post Roads;
To promote the Progress of Science and useful Arts, by securing for limited Times to Authors and Inventors the exclusive Right to their respective Writings and Discoveries;
To constitute Tribunals inferior to the supreme Court;
To define and punish Piracies and Felonies committed on the high Seas, and Offences against the Law of Nations;
To declare War, grant Letters of Marque and Reprisal, and make Rules concerning Captures on Land and Water;
To raise and support Armies, but no Appropriation of Money to that Use shall be for a longer Term than two Years;
To provide and maintain a Navy;
To make Rules for the Government and Regulation of the land and naval Forces;
To provide for calling forth the Militia to execute the Laws of the Union, suppress Insurrections and repel Invasions;
To provide for organizing, arming, and disciplining, the Militia, and for governing such Part of them as may be employed in the Service of the United States, reserving to the States respectively, the Appointment of the Officers, and the Authority of training the Militia according to the discipline prescribed by Congress;
To exercise exclusive Legislation in all Cases whatsoever, over such District (not exceeding ten Miles square) as may, by Cession of particular States, and the Acceptance of Congress, become the Seat of the Government of the United States, and to exercise like Authority over all Places purchased by the Consent of the Legislature of the State in which the Same shall be, for the Erection of Forts, Magazines, Arsenals, dock-Yards, and other needful Buildings;--And
To make all Laws which shall be necessary and proper for carrying into Execution the foregoing Powers, and all other Powers vested by this Constitution in the Government of the United States, or in any Department or Officer thereof.
Section. 9.
The Migration or Importation of such Persons as any of the States now existing shall think proper to admit, shall not be prohibited by the Congress prior to the Year one thousand eight hundred and eight, but a Tax or duty may be imposed on such Importation, not exceeding ten dollars for each Person.
The Privilege of the Writ of Habeas Corpus shall not be suspended, unless when in Cases of Rebellion or Invasion the public Safety may require it.
No Bill of Attainder or ex post facto Law shall be passed.
No Capitation, or other direct, Tax shall be laid, unless in Proportion to the Census or enumeration herein before directed to be taken.
No Tax or Duty shall be laid on Articles exported from any State.
No Preference shall be given by any Regulation of Commerce or Revenue to the Ports of one State over those of another; nor shall Vessels bound to, or from, one State, be obliged to enter, clear, or pay Duties in another.
No Money shall be drawn from the Treasury, but in Consequence of Appropriations made by Law; and a regular Statement and Account of the Receipts and Expenditures of all public Money shall be published from time to time.
No Title of Nobility shall be granted by the United States: And no Person holding any Office of Profit or Trust under them, shall, without the Consent of the Congress, accept of any present, Emolument, Office, or Title, of any kind whatever, from any King, Prince, or foreign State.
Section. 10.
No State shall enter into any Treaty, Alliance, or Confederation; grant Letters of Marque and Reprisal; coin Money; emit Bills of Credit; make any Thing but gold and silver Coin a Tender in Payment of Debts; pass any Bill of Attainder, ex post facto Law, or Law impairing the Obligation of Contracts, or grant any Title of Nobility.
No State shall, without the Consent of the Congress, lay any Imposts or Duties on Imports or Exports, except what may be absolutely necessary for executing it's inspection Laws: and the net Produce of all Duties and Imposts, laid by any State on Imports or Exports, shall be for the Use of the Treasury of the United States; and all such Laws shall be subject to the Revision and Controul of the Congress.
No State shall, without the Consent of Congress, lay any Duty of Tonnage, keep Troops, or Ships of War in time of Peace, enter into any Agreement or Compact with another State, or with a foreign Power, or engage in War, unless actually invaded, or in such imminent Danger as will not admit of delay.
Article. II.
Section. 1.
The executive Power shall be vested in a President of the United States of America. He shall hold his Office during the Term of four Years, and, together with the Vice President, chosen for the same Term, be elected, as follows:
Each State shall appoint, in such Manner as the Legislature thereof may direct, a Number of Electors, equal to the whole Number of Senators and Representatives to which the State may be entitled in the Congress: but no Senator or Representative, or Person holding an Office of Trust or Profit under the United States, shall be appointed an Elector.
The Electors shall meet in their respective States, and vote by Ballot for two Persons, of whom one at least shall not be an Inhabitant of the same State with themselves. And they shall make a List of all the Persons voted for, and of the Number of Votes for each; which List they shall sign and certify, and transmit sealed to the Seat of the Government of the United States, directed to the President of the Senate. The President of the Senate shall, in the Presence of the Senate and House of Representatives, open all the Certificates, and the Votes shall then be counted. The Person having the greatest Number of Votes shall be the President, if such Number be a Majority of the whole Number of Electors appointed; and if there be more than one who have such Majority, and have an equal Number of Votes, then the House of Representatives shall immediately chuse by Ballot one of them for President; and if no Person have a Majority, then from the five highest on the List the said House shall in like Manner chuse the President. But in chusing the President, the Votes shall be taken by States, the Representation from each State having one Vote; A quorum for this purpose shall consist of a Member or Members from two thirds of the States, and a Majority of all the States shall be necessary to a Choice. In every Case, after the Choice of the President, the Person having the greatest Number of Votes of the Electors shall be the Vice President. But if there should remain two or more who have equal Votes, the Senate shall chuse from them by Ballot the Vice President.
The Congress may determine the Time of chusing the Electors, and the Day on which they shall give their Votes; which Day shall be the same throughout the United States.
No Person except a natural born Citizen, or a Citizen of the United States, at the time of the Adoption of this Constitution, shall be eligible to the Office of President; neither shall any Person be eligible to that Office who shall not have attained to the Age of thirty five Years, and been fourteen Years a Resident within the United States.
In Case of the Removal of the President from Office, or of his Death, Resignation, or Inability to discharge the Powers and Duties of the said Office, the Same shall devolve on the Vice President, and the Congress may by Law provide for the Case of Removal, Death, Resignation or Inability, both of the President and Vice President, declaring what Officer shall then act as President, and such Officer shall act accordingly, until the Disability be removed, or a President shall be elected.
The President shall, at stated Times, receive for his Services, a Compensation, which shall neither be increased nor diminished during the Period for which he shall have been elected, and he shall not receive within that Period any other Emolument from the United States, or any of them.
Before he enter on the Execution of his Office, he shall take the following Oath or Affirmation:--"I do solemnly swear (or affirm) that I will faithfully execute the Office of President of the United States, and will to the best of my Ability, preserve, protect and defend the Constitution of the United States."
Section. 2.
The President shall be Commander in Chief of the Army and Navy of the United States, and of the Militia of the several States, when called into the actual Service of the United States; he may require the Opinion, in writing, of the principal Officer in each of the executive Departments, upon any Subject relating to the Duties of their respective Offices, and he shall have Power to grant Reprieves and Pardons for Offences against the United States, except in Cases of Impeachment.
He shall have Power, by and with the Advice and Consent of the Senate, to make Treaties, provided two thirds of the Senators present concur; and he shall nominate, and by and with the Advice and Consent of the Senate, shall appoint Ambassadors, other public Ministers and Consuls, Judges of the supreme Court, and all other Officers of the United States, whose Appointments are not herein otherwise provided for, and which shall be established by Law: but the Congress may by Law vest the Appointment of such inferior Officers, as they think proper, in the President alone, in the Courts of Law, or in the Heads of Departments.
The President shall have Power to fill up all Vacancies that may happen during the Recess of the Senate, by granting Commissions which shall expire at the End of their next Session.
Section. 3.
He shall from time to time give to the Congress Information of the State of the Union, and recommend to their Consideration such Measures as he shall judge necessary and expedient; he may, on extraordinary Occasions, convene both Houses, or either of them, and in Case of Disagreement between them, with Respect to the Time of Adjournment, he may adjourn them to such Time as he shall think proper; he shall receive Ambassadors and other public Ministers; he shall take Care that the Laws be faithfully executed, and shall Commission all the Officers of the United States.
Section. 4.
The President, Vice President and all civil Officers of the United States, shall be removed from Office on Impeachment for, and Conviction of, Treason, Bribery, or other high Crimes and Misdemeanors.
Article III.
Section. 1.
The judicial Power of the United States shall be vested in one supreme Court, and in such inferior Courts as the Congress may from time to time ordain and establish. The Judges, both of the supreme and inferior Courts, shall hold their Offices during good Behaviour, and shall, at stated Times, receive for their Services a Compensation, which shall not be diminished during their Continuance in Office.
Section. 2.
The judicial Power shall extend to all Cases, in Law and Equity, arising under this Constitution, the Laws of the United States, and Treaties made, or which shall be made, under their Authority;--to all Cases affecting Ambassadors, other public Ministers and Consuls;--to all Cases of admiralty and maritime Jurisdiction;--to Controversies to which the United States shall be a Party;--to Controversies between two or more States;-- between a State and Citizens of another State,--between Citizens of different States,--between Citizens of the same State claiming Lands under Grants of different States, and between a State, or the Citizens thereof, and foreign States, Citizens or Subjects.
In all Cases affecting Ambassadors, other public Ministers and Consuls, and those in which a State shall be Party, the supreme Court shall have original Jurisdiction. In all the other Cases before mentioned, the supreme Court shall have appellate Jurisdiction, both as to Law and Fact, with such Exceptions, and under such Regulations as the Congress shall make.
The Trial of all Crimes, except in Cases of Impeachment, shall be by Jury; and such Trial shall be held in the State where the said Crimes shall have been committed; but when not committed within any State, the Trial shall be at such Place or Places as the Congress may by Law have directed.
Section. 3.
Treason against the United States, shall consist only in levying War against them, or in adhering to their Enemies, giving them Aid and Comfort. No Person shall be convicted of Treason unless on the Testimony of two Witnesses to the same overt Act, or on Confession in open Court.
The Congress shall have Power to declare the Punishment of Treason, but no Attainder of Treason shall work Corruption of Blood, or Forfeiture except during the Life of the Person attainted.
Article. IV.
Section. 1.
Full Faith and Credit shall be given in each State to the public Acts, Records, and judicial Proceedings of every other State. And the Congress may by general Laws prescribe the Manner in which such Acts, Records and Proceedings shall be proved, and the Effect thereof.
Section. 2.
The Citizens of each State shall be entitled to all Privileges and Immunities of Citizens in the several States.
A Person charged in any State with Treason, Felony, or other Crime, who shall flee from Justice, and be found in another State, shall on Demand of the executive Authority of the State from which he fled, be delivered up, to be removed to the State having Jurisdiction of the Crime.
No Person held to Service or Labour in one State, under the Laws thereof, escaping into another, shall, in Consequence of any Law or Regulation therein, be discharged from such Service or Labour, but shall be delivered up on Claim of the Party to whom such Service or Labour may be due.
Section. 3.
New States may be admitted by the Congress into this Union; but no new State shall be formed or erected within the Jurisdiction of any other State; nor any State be formed by the Junction of two or more States, or Parts of States, without the Consent of the Legislatures of the States concerned as well as of the Congress.
The Congress shall have Power to dispose of and make all needful Rules and Regulations respecting the Territory or other Property belonging to the United States; and nothing in this Constitution shall be so construed as to Prejudice any Claims of the United States, or of any particular State.
Section. 4.
The United States shall guarantee to every State in this Union a Republican Form of Government, and shall protect each of them against Invasion; and on Application of the Legislature, or of the Executive (when the Legislature cannot be convened), against domestic Violence.
Article. V.
The Congress, whenever two thirds of both Houses shall deem it necessary, shall propose Amendments to this Constitution, or, on the Application of the Legislatures of two thirds of the several States, shall call a Convention for proposing Amendments, which, in either Case, shall be valid to all Intents and Purposes, as Part of this Constitution, when ratified by the Legislatures of three fourths of the several States, or by Conventions in three fourths thereof, as the one or the other Mode of Ratification may be proposed by the Congress; Provided that no Amendment which may be made prior to the Year One thousand eight hundred and eight shall in any Manner affect the first and fourth Clauses in the Ninth Section of the first Article; and that no State, without its Consent, shall be deprived of its equal Suffrage in the Senate.
Article. VI.
All Debts contracted and Engagements entered into, before the Adoption of this Constitution, shall be as valid against the United States under this Constitution, as under the Confederation.
This Constitution, and the Laws of the United States which shall be made in Pursuance thereof; and all Treaties made, or which shall be made, under the Authority of the United States, shall be the supreme Law of the Land; and the Judges in every State shall be bound thereby, any Thing in the Constitution or Laws of any State to the Contrary notwithstanding.
The Senators and Representatives before mentioned, and the Members of the several State Legislatures, and all executive and judicial Officers, both of the United States and of the several States, shall be bound by Oath or Affirmation, to support this Constitution; but no religious Test shall ever be required as a Qualification to any Office or public Trust under the United States.
Article. VII.
The Ratification of the Conventions of nine States, shall be sufficient for the Establishment of this Constitution between the States so ratifying the Same.
The Word, "the," being interlined between the seventh and eighth Lines of the first Page, the Word "Thirty" being partly written on an Erazure in the fifteenth Line of the first Page, The Words "is tried" being interlined between the thirty second and thirty third Lines of the first Page and the Word "the" being interlined between the forty third and forty fourth Lines of the second Page.
Attest William Jackson Secretary
done in Convention by the Unanimous Consent of the States present the Seventeenth Day of September in the Year of our Lord one thousand seven hundred and Eighty seven and of the Independance of the United States of America the Twelfth In witness whereof We have hereunto subscribed our Names,
G°. Washington
Presidt and deputy from Virginia
Delaware
Geo: Read
Gunning Bedford jun
John Dickinson
Richard Bassett
Jaco: Broom
Maryland
James McHenry
Dan of St Thos. Jenifer
Danl. Carroll
Virginia
John Blair
James Madison Jr.
North Carolina
Wm. Blount
Richd. Dobbs Spaight
Hu Williamson
South Carolina
J. Rutledge
Charles Cotesworth Pinckney
Charles Pinckney
Pierce Butler
Georgia
William Few
Abr Baldwin
New Hampshire
John Langdon
Nicholas Gilman
Massachusetts
Nathaniel Gorham
Rufus King
Connecticut
Wm. Saml. Johnson
Roger Sherman
New York
Alexander Hamilton
New Jersey
Wil: Livingston
David Brearley
Wm. Paterson
Jona: Dayton
Pennsylvania
B Franklin
Thomas Mifflin
Robt. Morris
Geo. Clymer
Thos. FitzSimons
Jared Ingersoll
James Wilson
Gouv Morris
For biographies of the non-signing delegates to the Constitutional Convention,
see the Founding Fathers page.
http://www.archives.gov/exhibits/charters/constitution_transcript.html
I just reported myself to Attackwatch. LOL
Interesting, the man who wrote the declaration of Independence, TJ, didn't sign the Constitution as founding father...
It looks like human trafficking is still lawful in the several states?
...around March April Greek freakout and at the same time the Iran thing goes hot? http://www.japantoday.com/category/national/view/6757-aftershocks-felt-in-japan-from-march-11-until-dec-31 Very interesting. Just looking at 8 and 9 point quake events happening around the same time in the past few years. 2012 taa boot. Lol. Anyone have a ballpark on how much it will cost to fill up the tank in the PIGS etc... What is it now? a 100 bucks in the EU and 50 in the States ...so we are talking double trouble before June? Price of oil at new record high with EU Iran Bank run holiday surprise into dollar at the same time? This is epic Tsunami East West same time boom shuck ah no lucka and taint no long board for Tiny Turbo Timmay ...cuzz labor don't work for Charlie's Great Wal Mart, he's a government goon gone C I L L my Landlord if he don't get Jonny Six Six Six PAC taxed 100%
http://theextinctionprotocol.wordpress.com/2012/01/07/earths-climate-unraveling-winter-disappears-across-portions-of-the-northern-hemisphere/
http://theextinctionprotocol.wordpress.com/2012/01/07/three-earthquakes-strike-nuclear-plant-region-of-fukushima-district/
On a side note, the D.C. area looks more than ripe for an above 6 point quake this year. If I recall 09 saw a just below 3 pointer and on the same day the next year in 2010 there was an above 3 pointer and of course the following year in 2011 we saw the 5.9 quake. I see a pattern here. Lol. Ouch for the AONS of the world. Strange huh, all this global meltdown goepolitical mess happening during raging storms, floods, fires, extreme drout, wars, quakes, tornados, tsunami etc... MRE's and TP look as good as the Iranian RTN spike. Investing in BobCat, for the hood's post shakedown. That looks like a no brainer for a short term rate of return for some can beans huh? Lol.
I wonder if the NTI boys Tipping Point will playout in the U.S. before or after the rockets red glare this year too? ...now that will be a game ''change'' for Rosemary's Baby, he'll stay in power, without any need for an election. He will end up as the U.N. Security Chairman and President at the same time again, sitting with his no nuke Nobel Prize ...with a dark twinkle in hiis eye as he offers the prophetic Middle East peace. Now that would be just T O O crazy to witness huh? Lol. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AWLBljvEG-M
Well thank God you can't pay for a standing army for more than two years.
Yeah, and Article I, Section 8 has had some serious "revisions" as well.
The Strait of Hormuz is divided by a fault line. Lately, there has been volcanic island building and earthquake activity.
I hope both naval commands are paying attention.
It is not the best bathtub conditions for nuclear armed boyz to be playing in right now.
A collapse is what we need and what we will have. The question is whether you can manage to be on top or near the top of the rubble when the system implodes.
We are about to enter the times where food/safety/ health will be paramount and where employment will decide whether you survive with some or no dignity.
Take note, the days ahead will be darker than any night we have seen.
I disagree slightly in that we do not need a collapse, the financial problem could be solved several ways without a collapse. The collapse is a necessary precondition for what we do need which is a cleansing. This cleansing I leave to your imagination but I know the east coast has quite a bit of filth that could be fairly tried and then fairly executed. Nuremberg will have nothing on the cleansing which will eventually take place in this country I dread and pray for another solution but the paths away from this are being cut off.
Close your eyes, cover your ears and let your senses take over...Now, what are your senses telling you? Can't you just smell the fear in the air?
The "CRIMINALS" knew right from wrong and chose to do wrong...
Remember, no prisoners!...Right?
This must be bullish.
Hans, a middle-aged German tourist on his first visit to Orlando, Florida, finds the red light district and enters a large brothel. The madam asks him to be seated and sends over a young lady to entertain him.
They sit and talk, frolic a little, giggle a bit, drink a bit, and she sits on his lap. He whispers in her ear and she gasps and runs away! Seeing this, the madam sends over a more experienced lady to entertain the gentleman. They sit and talk, frolic a little, giggle a bit, drink a bit, and she sits on his lap. He whispers in her ear, and she too screams, "No!" and walks quickly away.
The madam is surprised that this ordinary looking man has asked for something so outrageous that her two girls will have nothing to do with him. She decides that only her most experienced lady, Lola, will do. Lola has never said no, and it's not likely anything would surprise her. So the madam sends her over to Hans. They sit and talk, frolic a little, giggle a bit, drink a bit, and she sits on his lap. He whispers in her ear and she screams, "NO WAY, BUDDY!" and smacks him as hard as she can and leaves.
Madam is by now absolutely intrigued, having seen nothing like this in all her years of operating a brothel. She hasn't done the bedroom work herself for a long time, but she's sure she has said yes to everything a man could possibly ask for.
She just has to find out what this man wants that has made her girls so angry. Besides she sees a chance to teach her employees a lesson. So she goes over to Hans and says that she's the best in the house and is available. She sits and talks with him. They frolic, giggle, drink and then she sits in his lap. Hans leans forwards and whispers in her ear, "Can I pay in Euros?"
You know - the more I read, the more I realise - when you see headlines like
- Grupo Gowex from Spain moving their corporate HQ to Germany,
- Jeronimo Martins moving their HQ to the Netherlands and
- Siemens depositing their cash with the ECB
It's becoming obvious from the anecdotal evidence that more and more people are contemplating a Eurozone breakup and that the non -financial sectors are losing confidence in the Euro and the European banking system.
But when it comes down to it, no one really knows what's going on, or no one knows what's going to happen.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yVuEC3r7a-o
I'm sure consulting firms are cranking out euro break-up contingency plans for 1000's of companies
OK, so they'll be moving money to Germany - no surprises there
http://financeaddict.com/2011/12/plan-b-for-breakup/
http://www.businessweek.com/news/2011-12-12/european-ceos-move-cash-to-germany-in-case-of-euro-breakup.html
Greece will default.
Euro restructruing plan to be announced, in which provisions will be made for countries to exit the Euro, as long as they have a "long term" re-entry plan.
What else would you expect from a bunch of bankers and politicians?
It will happen, watch.
Someone mentioned "fear in the air"
We spend so much of our day attempting to guess what will happen tomorrow and how we will deal whatever we determine the outcome will be, we are sacrificing a bit of today when we could be doing something else.
I think this is something our society has evolved into. This mass paranoia thing isn't going to solve anything and it just helps the propaganda machine instill even more fear and therefore the powers that be will have more control.
For example, the people in the countries who are suffering the most realize this is a no win situation for them, yet there few answers except through mass demonstrations and/or violence.
If someone or group of someones would actually devise a method that would allow society to function with the technology and resources available in liberty, peace and relative prosperity the whole world would be a lot better off, I for one am waiting to hear what that may be.
You are all idiots.
Four martini night SwingForce?
Never understood why people think lending to a government is lower risk.
When you lend to a company, if the company goes bankrupt you end up owning all of it's assets.
When you lend to a country the risk of bankrupcy is the same - 100%. All companies AND governments eventually go bankrupt, it's just a question of if the timing meets up with the bond duration and your roll plans. If you lend when the country has low debt levels and at a moderate maturity, you'll probably get out ok. But if you buy 30 years and roll it a few times, eventually you'll loose it all. Eventually the people will be unwilling to be debt slaves to pay for something that benefitted their grandparents. Hell PRIVATE intergenerational debt is illegal in most countries (still legal in shot holes like India) because it's a form of slavery. Not sure why it's legal for a government.
And what do you get back when a country defaults? If you are lucky it's another note saying you'll get back some of your loan in another 30 years. But you will never get hard assets, land, commodities etc... Usually you het back little to nothing.
LISTEN UP CHINA!!! THIS IS NOT MY DEBT. This is Barrack Hussein Obama's debt, take it up with him. I have no intention of giving you a fraction of my assets or doing a minute of unpaid work for you when it comes time for you to be repaid the money you gave Commrade O to handout food stamps to welfare queens and let people stop working 30 years before they die. I recieved no benefit and will not assume any responsibility. I will vote for default. And if the government tries to raise my taxes to pay you back I will expatriate and take my assets and contribution to GDP with me.
I am the 1%. He'll I'm probably the 1% of the 1%. So it's 25,000 people like me that you are counting on to pay you back. The 99% that can't pick up and leave, that can't ply their trade from anywhere I'n the world - also can't afford to pay their debts. So good luck with that $2 trillion you lent us at 1%. Might want to change it for the smallest bills you can and pennies, nickels and dimes. At least then you'll have gotten some paper and metal out of the deal.
Any idea how many folks are swapping Euros for dollars? I can assure you it is a ton. If you lived in Portugal with the fan on high I think you'd be wantin to shake hands with Ben Franklin. Neighbor talks to neighbor, neighbor talks to sister in Italy...etc
The bernankenator can't toss out a QE3 here cause he has to keep his powder dry for a large QE Europe
A liter of gas for your car now officially costs more than a liter of supermarket wine in Italy. Yikes.
I remember paying EUR1.10 for supermarket wine in France during grad school some time ago. Was cheap, but got the job done. Gas mustve been around 1.50/L. Its been quite a while i believe.
Greece to sell bonds backed by state property:
http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=CNG.c491790352f9e17d471995233507...
Comments to NRC – Send an Email
The Tag Line of NRC is
“Protecting People and the Environment”
Speak Your Mind!
The NRC has determined that it has confidence in using spent fuel pools for up to 60 years past the closing of a Nuke Plant. Hmmmm.
They assume that
1) Society won’t break down AND loss of knowledge (like there won’t be a single CD that shows how dangerous spent fuel is). Well what if society breaks down, but there is still a CD of knowledge left. OK! Their conditions are met, their assumptions were not wrong!
2) Terrorism doesn’t need to be considered, it is outside of their scope.
3) They don’t consider that “loss of institutional control” will ever happen because “the trend in modern society is toward more awareness and control over issues that pose a risk to humans and their environment.” Yeah Right!
4) They assume that the nuke plant operators will provide continuing financial support for their used fuel “regardless of cost”, can I puke now?
They won’t even touch the 8000 lb Gorilla in the Room….The Carrington effect, a large sun storm that wipes out transformers and thus the world wide power grid. As you may know, if a nuke plant loses power, it melts down, and I mean the reactor AND the fuel pools.
I summarized some of their comments from the PDF (invitation to comment), below, it will make your blood boil.
http://www.nrc.gov/waste/spent-fuel-storage/public-involvement.html
The comment period is 45 calendar days, from January 3 to February 17, 2012.
At the pimp
http://nukepimp.blogspot.com/2012/01/comments-to-nrc-send-email.html
Can't understand the massive fear from a Greek/Italian default. If anybody had any sense, Greece and Italy would have restructured a year ago. I really can't understand what the insistence is on bailing out bond-holders. Sovereign debt was never riskless. There have been countless sovereign defaults in the past and the world did not end.
Let Italy and Greece (and Portugal and maybe Spain) restructure their debt to sustainable levels, recapitalize banks and move on.
Also why do you have to leave the Euro if you default?
You dont
Reposted from previous thread :
Reflections in a golden eye :
I use this reference to an old Marlon Brando movie, on man's hidden impulses, as an allegory to try and understand the Euro zone financial collapse. Here is the time line as I understand it and the key calls made at each instant.
1° At the early 2009 G20 meeting in London, Merkozy started their two 'man' divergent act. Merkel reminded the world that ECB was independent. Sarkozy said we needed more financial regulation and Tobin type taxes. Brown agreed piously, all the while knowing the City would never allow it. Sarkozy even had the gall to say "OUr banks are fine not like those of USA." Nothing got done as we all know. Merkozy at that time KNEW about the Euro bank exposure to US debt tsunami repercussions on their BS, aka Dexia on a much broader scale, but covered it up. WHy? 'COs they did not agree to a common ECB stratgey for financial discipline in Euro zone. That was the tipping moment to take action and they didn't take it.
2° Mid 2009 we had the first rumblings of Greek shenanigans and imminent sovereign debt collapse. This added to the Private banking sector overspending in Portugal, Spain and Ireland. PIGS were now front page for different reasons but sovereign debt was now out in the open. Also as the crisis exploded in recessionary Eurozone like elswhere the Budget deficits exploded going from 3-5 % range to 7-10 % in 2009. Maastricht criteria were toast.
3° Merkozy now started openly squabbling about ECB action, with Trichet looking on like impotent potentate in the middle; one who had been guilty of raising interest rates earlier in 2008 and had got shit thrown at him for mismanagement. 2010 began with the sovereign debts and cumulaitve Euro banks debt on front page of the financial markets. The Euro zone iceberg now loomed as big as WS inundated by QE shenanigans. Still no concerted action on ECB strategy. France wanted ECB statutes urgently changed so that they could buy sovereigns from the national banks directly but Merkel was adamant. No change to ECB role and sacrosanct independence.
By now Merkel was finger pointing at Greece saying, "I am right to say first the nationals have to do good book keeping and fiscal discipline before we go joint and several on ECB plays, my golden rule I imposed on EUrozone since early 2009, and which G-Pap shenanigans and very unsubtle, hidden budget deficit black mailing show me was the right way to go!"
She forgot to mention that the resultant knee jerk in market was to question the banking stability of EUro banks cumulative balance sheet of 30T+ which was the real issue NOT the cumulative sovereign debt of 8 T on PIIGS national balance sheets. The markets were now very nervous at seeing worthless banks holding up worthless national economies. By not going ECB on joint and several basis relative to national bond issues Merkel's rule was pouring hot oil on the banking sector's balance sheets. Their reaction was understandable they didn't want to buy sovereign bonds or they wanted CDS cover. Finally as it got worse all those government bonds ended up via secondary market plays on ECB balance sheets....Precisely what Sarkozy said would happen, whence the urgency to go joint and several OPENLY by allowing ECB to buy directly national bonds...
4° As we came into 2011 Greece and POrtugal exploded. Now the numbers both on sovereings and banks were looking real bad, aka RM presentation in Europe. The shit was all lying out in the open. The spreads were widening even to core euro economies and still NO ECB joint and several strategy. Merkel 's 2009 dictat was still the golden rule : Each nation state fended for itself individually and the ECB played back up on secondary markets via sterilization. The markets weren't buying this and the spreads exploded, now for France and German bonds.
5° So today we have an ECB balance sheet with 3.5 T monetisation. Nobody buys sovereigns in markets as the ECB buys them from Banks NOT FROM CENTRAL BANKS, AND THE MARKETS MAKE A KILLING ON THE SPREADS.
Now Sarkozy is tearing his hair out, talking of war if Eurozone explodes and finger pointing to Merkel for her obtuseness that has gotten de facto a ragged and debt ridden ECB as lender of last resort. But not at the CHEAPER joint and several rates it should have proposed to the national central banks in 2009/2010. Instead, at the high spreads that the nationals now pay for their bond issues and the ECB swallows in its secondary market plays. We are at the same place that Sarkozy said we would be, aka with defacto ECB as back up, only its not official and it respects "nominal" independence of ECB statutes. What a charade this has become in the face of a relentless market.
Merkel must take responsibility in front of world and history if this scenario that I propose, as my 'golden eye' vision, has even the slightest truth in it. The January 2012 meetings between Merkozy and Monti will be interesting as Sarkozy wants to shove Tobin down the Eurozone's throats to get something back from financial markets. But the killer is ECB is still not joint and several and by the way the things are hotting up it will be joint and several ironically for dissolving the Eurozone, not for protecting it!
30 billion loss for ECB sovereign debt monetization and we are just ENTERING THE WOODS, not leaving it. The Euro zone will now face two crucial debt funding years in 2012/2013, and the ECB, as of beginning 2012, has a balance sheet that is already in tatters, thanks to this obtuse Merkel rule of 'every nation for itself' imposed on EUROZONE; instead of Joint and several right from day one, which is what really occured behind the curtain. But at such a high ongoing cost!
PS / This is my analysis of current real events. I don't pass judgement on the LT viability of the Eu-zone financial scheme, common money strategy between a hi-tech North economy and a Club-Med South economy. That architecture is unsustainable in a non federal fiscal structure and disparate nation state economic environments. It needed a United states of Europe, which is a pipe dream, given the history of these nation states at war for over a thousand years; History is such a biiiitch; with sharp teeth! So Europe has its work cut out if it wants to get there one day.
Funny that. The folks who made a fortune from adopting and revaluing into an overvalued currency are now trying to lock in their gains:) It don't get any better than that:)
Reposted from another thread. The restructuring debt plan seems to be more than a little fishy!
http://www.foxytradingclub.com/us-hidden/us/greece-debt-negotiations-move-toward-deal
Existing bonds swapped for new bonds valued at 35% of the old , + 15% in upfront cash!!
The new bonds having a rate of up to 8%. The old bonds were at <4.5% from what I can work out on the ECBs acceptable collateral db.
I'm guessing the 15%, is coming straight out the bailout, and propping up Eurozone banks! Bailout is a loan which as I understand it is 0.5% fee + ongoing EURIBOR(3M) + 3%.
Oh well means the IMF can lend to banks now in another devious twist.
To ensure eternal indebtedness the new bonds will be in English law, so when Greece finally has a leader they voted for it can't be reneged on.
Why Holland??
This is unrelated to the topic--just thought I'd say, "great job."
the zero hedge manifesto:
to widen the scope of financial, economic and political information available to the professional investing public.
to skeptically examine and, where necessary, attack the flaccid institution that financial journalism has become.
to liberate oppressed knowledge.
to provide analysis uninhibited by political constraint.
to facilitate information's unending quest for freedom.
Man, I gotta say you live up to your manifesto. How many places even have a manifesto? I'd love to see, say, CNBC, declare their mission. That would be a laugh.
The thing I wonder about, though, is "Why?"
here here Ditto
I can't speak for ZH, and won't pretend to. But, I can offer a couple possible answers to your "why".
1. He can sleep, without nightmares from guilt.
2. Providing the ungarnished truth provides a breath of fresh air that brings him an ever-expanding group of followers.
3. Because he gets satisfaction from providing traders with actionable information.
4. Because the reactionary right-wing conservatives that control the status quo are scared to death of an educated populace. ZH is making sure we get educated properly.
I can't say why but I admire what you've done so far Tyler. I can say it must be pushing the buttons of someone in the 1% because I saw some comment on other blog the other day making noises like Tyler is hypoing the numbers a bit in certain areas. This was on the story about a 30% premium for physical silver. I don't doubt for a minute that someone out there is asking for 30%; this guy was saying it's more like 8% and 30% was hyperbole.
To me, that's a gnat on an elephant's ass. I've learned a lot from ZH and hope it continues in the same direction with increased momentum.
So..... the SHTF 3 or 4 months from now. Again?! The S has been going to HTF in the next 3 or 4 months for about, oh, ..... I don't know, 2 years!
All I can say is, waiting for Armaggedon goes tiring.
At least the Mayans picked a date and stuck with it.
As Mayans have now entered the comments.....Say, you guys DO know about Clif High, don't you?
His "web bots" are predicting a massive, unprecedented change to occur somewhere between 3/2 and 3/9/12.
I buy his reports because the report right before Fukushima foresaw and described a "Radioactive Volcano" and of course that got my attention. The most recent one may be the last for a while since the data he uses to compile the reports (building tension language) seems to fade instead of build after 3/10/12.
http://halfpasthuman.com/destiny.html
3/6/12
Numerically, it's the date they want. Plenty of 3's
VIX show to us that the top is now.
Vix can enter an range trader between 20 and 48, like it was between mid-07 and mid-08.
This would take SP500 and Dow to new lows until 1.000 and 1.040 to SP500 AND 9.800 to Dow.
But, a main range between 1.000 and 1.250 to SP500 still until mid-2012.
When VIX break up 48, We have finally a hard crash with all american index break down 9.600 to DOW and 1.000 sp500..
See here this scenario like mid-2007 and mid 2008: http://pracompraroupravender.blogspot.com/2012/01/o-passado-e-o-futuro-dos-mercados.html
I liked it when one of the US senators recently asked the Fed if they were going to bail out the EU. That pretty much shows who's in power.
Yep, that pretty much says it all.
Greece is bankrupt - and as the banks keep getting more and more bailout packages in order to withstand the (unavoidable) losses, they start to admit it and propose haircuts, debt restructings, etc.
A few years ago, they couldn't withstand any losses, so they rejected any plans that invelved haircus and restructing (they couldn't withstand them back then).
In the end, when the banks are ready for it, they will let Greece default
Here is a good read by Michael Pettis:
http://whataboutmarx.blogspot.com/2012/01/what-might-history-tell-us-abo...
FX related but slightly OT
Iran and Russia Drop $USD in favor of home currencies for direct trade
Www.gata.org
Can you say "Ratchet UP?",----I knew that you could!
It's a wonderful day in the neighborhood, a war-filled day in the neigh.....
Here's a post on Finance Addict looking at who else has joined Alexandre Soares dos Santos in planning for the worst.
Common debt issuance will save the EUSSR? Hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa!!!! Sure thing Bob, sure thing...
This is hardly any reason to have optimism about Europe. Predicition: Euro will break up in 2012.
Fed Bailout of Eurozone Picks Up Steam, ECB Cranks Up MLF and Gold Reserves, Italian Sovereign Yields Continue to Risehttp://confoundedinterest.wordpress.com/2012/01/08/fed-bailout-of-eurozone-picks-up-steam-ecb-cranks-up-mlf-and-gold-reserves-italian-sovereign-yields-continue-to-rise/
As ZeroHedge has previously pointed out; the current method of improving unemployment figures by decreasing the size of Labor Force Participation figures will make unemployment look vastly improved by the time November elections roll around. I think UBS has it wrong on that point. I would not be surprised to see NFP's and other numbers showing an unemployment rate with a 7 handle in time for the release of June's figures. By November we will be very close to full employment.
In reality however; UBS is spot on. In fact, it's likely true unemployment will grow steadily worse in the coming years as more and more people enter the labor force and don't find jobs that pay a living wage.
G morning
check out this unique working paper.
http://www.scribd.com/doc/77627282/Withdrawal-and-Expulsion-From-EU-and-...
PP