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The US Drought In Context: Spot The Global Warming
"The drought that has settled over more than half of the continental United States this summer is the most widespread in more than half a century," and as the New York Times points out "is likely to grow worse." However, a glance at the last 112 years' June 'drought' conditions does not suggest this is a systemic trend (a la global warming) - with notably drier/hotter periods in the past - but we do note some interesting analogs as drought conditions as epic as the current one evolve and fade: from 1936-1938 the Dow fell almost 50%; from 1955-1957 the Dow fell over 18% (11% p.a.); and 1987 of course saw a 40% plunge. "It’s got the potential to be the worst drought we’ve ever had in Arkansas," said Butch Calhoun, the state’s secretary of agriculture. "It’s going to be very detrimental to our economy."
Nearly 1,300 counties across 29 states have been declared federal disaster areas. Areas under moderate to extreme drought in June of each year are shown in orange below
Source: NYTimes
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And that chart clearly shows a pattern. And that pattern is . . . . randomness.
Still trying to pass that first stat class eh?
Drought in the continental US is not a feature of "anthropogenic global warming," but rather a weather phenomenon west of Peru in the Pacific called La Nina, and the opposite effects from the current called El Nino, together they are the Southern Oscillation. La Nina is an upwelling of cold water that stretches thousands of miles and of course colder water has less evaporation into the air. But, it is not just about the moisture content in the air, it is about high elevation winds and the jet stream that change patterns during these events.
Recall last year it is drought in Russia and wind driven firestorms that consumed a chunk of their crop production that drove speculative frenzy. This year they have flooding killing hundreds in southern Russia.
This is the second event of La Nina back to back which is unusual but then they have only studied the Pacific temperature and current patterns in any real depth for about 30 years. There is no way to know if this is an unusual pattern or not.
Back-to-back La Niñas cooled globe and influenced extreme weather in 2011
http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2012/20120710_stateoftheclimatereport.html
MAP showing USUAL consequences of La Nina here:
http://portal.iri.columbia.edu/portal/server.pt/gateway/PTARGS_0_5665_7182_0_0_18/LaNinagraphic_aug2%207.pdf
Now expand the US dry areas after multiple la Niñas in successive years and you see why such a large and extreme drought is persisting.
Of course we could all panic and jump on the man made global warming bandwagon and propose trillions in spending and shutter almost all industry while billions either starve or become impoverished in order to cure this problem that is most likely just a natural variant of long established weather patterns.
Thanks to chemtrails
The Ottawa Valley is done.
Corn is all dead, all of it. Which means the 1000 people working at the ethanol refinery will be laid off with nothing to process. That btw accounts for 5% of the world total supply of ethanol. The corn grown for the fuel is currently being harvested and fed to the cows because the hay crop was non-existent. This plus the slaughter of 70% of the cattle because there won't be enough food to feed them.
Soy is dead, all of it. GMO soy was the first to die. The native grown soy, dropped dead over the weekend. Lasted a week longer than the engineered stuff. Drought resistant indeed, wonder where they tested it?
Pear, plum and apple trees are all dead and are being chipped today at 120 orchards. So there will be cheap firewood by the tanker load by Tuesday.
Strawberries didn't have enough rain and the environment ques were all off, so no strawberries.
Rasberry bushes are still chugging along. not producing anything though. If they are, the crows are getting first crack at it.
Speaking of crows, they are being found dead along with dozens of other spieces of birds. Bears, coyotes and deer are showing up to drink from people's pools and hot tubs.
If it doesn't read like the first chapter of the road...it's going to be a bad year.
Nature and the Algonquin will be happy to take it all back from you if you are done with it now.
My wife hasn't divorced me yet (she's a way back tribe local) and Nature is handing out the ass whippings to all. Stupidiest thing about the drought, Ottawa the city is sending out notices to inform people they should water their lawns. Here is where it gets dumber. People are doing it, who the fuck knows why though.
In a couple of days the water pressure in Ottawa will be so low that the sewage waiting to be processed will eventually get into the drinking water because 1.2 million people won't stop shitting and pissing in a 5 gallon flushable pot for love or money.
Otherwise
My 800 ft well is at the panic mark right now and 20% of the homes on wells are dry in the area. If we don't get ten feet of rain soon I'm afraid that is the end of Canada...at least it's capital. My cisterns are all full though and should last until December.
Weirdly nobody in the media seems to have remembered that Corn reserves were low to begin with in April 2012.
http://www.futuresmag.com/2012/04/05/us-corn-stocks-dwindle-but-record-c...
Funny how optimistic the writer was. The bushels described in reserve wouldn't feed a 1/10th of the US population. But I suppose that's how it goes.
For water...
Make sure you are all ahead of this curve and keep an eye on supplies before panic hits the soccer moms. Once it gets there, full blown batshit insane soccer moms will be rioting in the streets. The same people that can't keep their shit together with a bad field play. Imagine what they'll be like when the taps run dry.
It's going to be the most awful thing any of us will have seen in our lives. Dying by water or Thirst is a shitty way to go.
For those starting to wake up, you need 1 gallon per person in the holdhold on hand. You can get away with a half gallon. To properly store water, simple bleach, 8 drops per gallon. If the water goes flat, you will get very sick from still water. Think of it like brewing, yeast left in an closed warm environment with sugar makes booze. Water in a closed warm environment makes eColi and baterial infections the human race in north america hasn't seen in a century.
Be safe guys.
Bleach doesn't have a very good shelf life... be sure it's still kicking if you use it. Should be 5 to 6% new. Iodine is good for water purification too, as well as getting info on CHC (calcium hypochlorite) powder to make bleach stock for use as water purification.
Google it up people and here's hoping for you CPL.
If you have access to non-potable water, just buy a lifesaver bottle or jerry-can.
If you don't have access to water at all, MOVE. (AZ, SoCal, NM, etc.) Water is the second most important resource to sustain your LIFE, and it's not likely you'll run out of air first.
"Die of thirst"?
Panic much?
Canada has more fresh water than any country in the world, and Canada does not end in the Ottawa Valley. Fuck ethanol, Fuck Ottawa, and Fuck soccer moms while their husbands are at the office.
"Die of thirst"?
Panic much?
Canada has more fresh water than any country in the world, and Canada does not end in the Ottawa Valley. Fuck ethanol, Fuck Ottawa, and Fuck soccer moms while their husbands are at the office.
nice chart :-)) especially 1930-36 __ juxtaposed to 2011-2012 and beyond?
more farm subsidies [~$100bl.] annually for the fiat-toilet cess-pool clif$
more ethanol = grandiose mileage dilution = less food for transportation's insatiable diet... equates surprisingly to how we`all can snack on nacho's while driving our suv's through america's waste land
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smoot_Hawley_Tariff_Act [1930?]
ethanol : the agricultural crime of the century {fucking Greenies!}
Its times like these when you realize why the govt should not spend its way out of everything. When events occur beyond your control like poor weather for crops, that is when spending is reqd. But seeing as we're tapped out already, this makes it even worse.
Is statistical analysis of the term "drought" the issue here, or actually the implications for USA and global society for a failed harvest year?
Here are the facts that relate to the situation:
-Many aquifers around the Great Plains are critically low
-Central CA agriculture around Sacaramento area has been systematically eliminated thanks to EPA and concerns for endangered non-native snail darter fish. This is a huge removal of productive acreage and actually the ruin of the land, so it won't just "come back online" when the regulators ordain it permissable to do so.
-Food production in Mid-West impacted severely last year due to flooding and drought. Not much flooding this year; drought conditions in other areas into longer term cycle, last year's flood areas now entering drought conditions..
-Food and drinking water severely impacted by widespread conditions.
Seems like arguing over the science of the diagnosis belittles the impact. How many reservoirs that serve Western cities are within norm as to water level? How many more thousand acres of West Texas' Trans-Pecos agriculture has seen its aquifer turn salty?
You do realize that Dept Of Agriculture no longer buys and stores commodities for citizen or social use? There is no buffer of food storage that can be supplied to farmers or sold to cereal makers or other food suppliers.
Got food? As in a larder or pantry. Maybe a walk-in freezer or other means to preserve and assure you will be able to feed your family and maybe help other loved ones?
Got money but no food storage or facilities? If so, I submit you have failed to understand the concept of wealth and the purpose of money...
Water of potable quality is most critical and it isn't especially common. Ewell Gibbons or Tom Brown Jr could find a cornucopia of edibles in a vacant lot, but the clean and pure water is another matter.
At least ONE rational comment in a sea of climate change debate BS and Bobbitt jokes.....
While ther may be a respite now and then with a good winter snowpack, the trend has been copntinually LOWER in Lake Mead and many of the other water sources out west. I'm astounded at the white salt rings around most of the man made lakes out west - and how much lower the water levels have gotten. Read 'Cadillac Desert' (writtenin the 80's ) for a good overview of water policy in the US west. The olgalalla aquifer is only getting lower and lower - it's NOT recharging.
This drought is going to have worldwide effects on the food supply...... not just the US.
and remember - the 'Arab Spring' had little to do with 'democracy' - it was about UNEmployed people facing HIGHER FOOD PRICES. Long term unemployment is ending for many and food prices are going up ..... we're going to have a very interesting fall in the US. (and if you think it matters whethjer Obama or Romney ends up Prez - you're deluded).
Read somewhere that there is a global cooling trend going on for the last 600 years due to orbital fluctuations which offsets the warming due to GHG emissions. But seasonal temperatures are rising which can lead to failed harvest such as we see now in the world.
CO2 leads to climate change or not? I honestly don't know anymore. For one research that claims it is, there is another that claims it isn't. Regardless whether AGW is happening or not, the world would be a better place with other renewable energies than fossil fuel. Finding the Higgs particle is nice and everything but perhaps the folks at CERN and other places so devote time and money on making nuclear fusion or something else possible
You believe that finding the Higgs and working on fusion are separate problems. This is not correct. And the only thing preventing fusion from becoming reality is governments and economics for funding the science involved.
It's really too bad you stupid fucking monkeys can't get your act together long enough to save yourselves.
"you stupid fucking monkeys"
You're just here to make new friends, aren't you?
You might think there'd be real money put into researching crazy shit like fusion energy, trans-warp drives, quantum gravity, deflector shields...but so much of it is tied up in stuff like porn and sugar water.
Those who know that the US is not the world may have noticed that it's been amazingly cold and wet in Northen Europe from April to July. I mean a good 10 degrees C. below average in Paris and London. So let's stop calling thing "global" warming.
We here in Oregon just had the coldest wettest June on record. We have had two full years with colder than normal weather, and fluctuating rains that have sometimes been absent when we expect them and flooding abundance when it should be dry. Yet, we have had less than five inches of snow in three years, but frozen fog we have had in depressing endless months of winters.
But that is WEATHER, not CLIMATE. The boneheads that cannot keep those separated are the driving force in the First Church of Man Bad for Earth. Hey, here is an idea, let's experiment with our climate and see how badly we can REALLY fuck it up.
Portland, Or. Weather Report
Month of July cloudy. with sprinkle of sunshine.
Today full cloud cover.
Medford OR month of June 400% of normal rain. 12 days of it when one or two is normal.
If you want global, they have global you know:
http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/detect/global-temps.shtml
Could be sunspots. Could be volcanoes. Could be anything. But it's global and it ain't fucking around.
Southern Europe is recording record high temperatures for prolonged time. And not the first time. The warmest summers since recorded history have occurred in the last 22 years.
Those who mistake weather for climate should keep their ignorance to themselves.
Seriously.
The graphic is very intersting to look especialy that it shows how there is a cycle of drought which like the tide ebbs and flows. This makes alot of sense especially when the sun heats up and cools down. The issue isn't so much the drought, which is terrible however the issue is the government subsidizing the industiral farm complex which is a model that is completely unsustainable. It shows that when there is a slight hiccup in the system the whole country suffers.
Well maybe the U.S.A Military should stop spraying chemtrails in western Canada,seeing as they have caused us to have DOUBLED OUR PREVIOUS rainfall record for june..... AND ARE DIRECTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE DEATHS of people killed in a landslide caused by this DOUBLE THE RECORD rainfall.
.............................DOUBLED............................... the record...
There is only so much water to go around,so if we DOUBLE previous records than somewhere is going to do without.
These conditions are caused by U.S.A. Geoengineering,and the tankers that spray this shit.
This is TERRORISM........
............................STOP CHEMTRAIL spraying.
If you are one of the ones who sees it and know it is going on ,make sure you tell and SHOW your friends and family,and let them know who is responsible for this terrorism.
I did NOT asked to be sprayed,and was not told that i AM being sprayed daily,but I am.....
........................FUCK OFF Geoengineering and your CHEMTRAILS...
...........................FUCK YOU'S..............................
well.. you need water to process tar sands, right? <snark>
The chemtrail bit seems to be a bit over the top on the conspiracy theory side.... do you really think they're THAT organized (or competent enough) to actually pull somethign like that off? AIrcraft create vapor trails.... they were doing it with B-17's in WWII and on 9/11 they stopped with the lack of flights (and proved that contrsils were a contributor to cloud formation).
If you're going to go with conspiracy theories I'd go with the worldwide pandemic to kill off growing populations in Asia - and the lower poorer classes in the West - to reduce the load on the planet. Think 'V for Vendetta'. MUCH easier to kill off a ton of people than try and re-engineer the planet....
We all know the REAL culprit behind our weather and climate problems is continental drift, so why don't you activist types address the REAL issues and stop trying to manipulate the air? Just think of how longer you can milk the greater problem, how much money you can spend keeping the continents in their circa 1500 positions when climate was so much more happy. And how much blame you can heap on the white males of the developed world for their flagrant disregard for continental location. Time to put an end to man made continental drift!
whut? lol
yeah, my dad called me from Nebraska yesterday, 110F, record breaker. I'm heading that way tomorrow to escape from California, for good.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1TD_pSeNelU
I lived in North Platte NE for a few years as a kid from 1966 to 1969, 110 in the summer is not really unusual there, it is unpleasant, but people do not panic at the state of the world when the mercury goes over 100 in July, it would be far more unusual if the temps did NOT go over 100. In order to be a record you only have to beat the previous high by a single degree, and both ends of the scale see that all the time. Somehow people conflate in their minds that a "record" high, or low, is somehow a vicious new apocalyptic world out to destroy civilization. Now if you had whole years or decades of daily records with a magnitude of 5-10 degrees or more you might be right, but for one town to have a hot day in summer that is one degree hotter than it was in say 1910 is not unusual or unexpected, it just means it was ALMOST as hot in 1910 as it was yesterday.
EDIT: By the way, you have seen Nebraska haven't you? I hope you like flat.
I see the "MillionDollar Bonus" gang all signed on at the same time today to green arrow MDB comments.
Fuck you\sPUPPETS.
MDB gets green arrowed because he is a dead pan sarcasm poster who gets the people not smart enough to see he isn't serious riled up.
Just a friendly reminder: global cooling creates global drought, not global warming.
I'd rather call it Global Climate Change for that is what we are seeing. Drought here, flood there. It has always been this way but the instances are increasing according to the data.
Here's a just-up WUWT thread by Pielke rebutting Krugman and Goldenberg on the drought:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/07/23/krugmans-corny-caper/
Of major concern here is the effect drought is having on the stock market.....lets put Al Gore's theories aside for the moment and focus the discussion on what really counts.....making money.
This drought is actually good news for the planet if it helps the Us to begin to manage the global warming and stop destroying the environment with for instance the shale gas exploitation...
Havnt reached the 1934 level yet,looks like 53- 56.
So what happend i 34???Rocken Heinzlers morgue spilt some oil.
Planet pulse,yeah cool it down,with CO2 kvotes,thatll do the trick.
Gota make a bread,before it hits the Hockey stick!
There's always a drought somewhere. That's what crop insurance is for.
If this drought is a global phenomenom, what happened in the UK this "summer"?
Ahhh! The ever-popular ouija board approach to the analysis of economic events.
anyone who uses the word 'denialist' is a parrot idiot who has no ability to think for themselves. the word was coined and popularized to frame the debate by people who don't want others thinking for themselves.
once you engage in certain language, you have already stopped thinking about your assumptions, accepted them, and decided to foist them upon someone else with pre-packaged arguments. essentially, you've stopped listening and thinking.
but as a famous man once said. in order to have faith, you have to stop thinking.
diametric oppositionalism for the win.