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US Housing Market Was Artificially Inflated By 14% In 2007-2010 NAR Reports
Just the headlines for now:
- EXISTING U.S. HOME SALES REVISED DOWN BY 14% FROM 2007-2010
- EXISTING HOME SALES REVISED DOWN BY 15% IN 2010 TO 4.19 MLN
Thank you NAR for proving what everyone knew: that the US housing market is one big lie. And next: here come the historical GDP revisions.
The three charts that matter:
And the reasons for the "rebenchmarking"
- Fewer FSBO home sales and more REALTOR®-assisted home sales (e.g., no net increase in home sales in a case where 80 MLS sales and 20 FSBOs shifts to 90 MLS sales and 10 FSBOs)
- More Homebuilders seek REALTOR®-assistance in listing properties on MLSs (More MLS count even though there is no increase in existing home sales)
- Flipping of a home (re-sell within 12 months)
- Re-benchmarked figure excludes the second sale, while they are counted as twice in MLS count
- Enlarged MLS geographic coverage
- Some of the home sales are not an increase in home sales but are just due to enlarged sampled areas
- Double counting as one single property is listed in two or more MLSs
- Example: a home in Colorado Springs is listed in MLS in Colorado Springs and is also listed in MLS in Denver.
Odd: no mention of the primary reason for the "rebenchmarking", namely that the NAR is nothing but an advertising front for the US housing industry.
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& on the other side of Michigan you can't give it away ! i know, i'm sitting there with a condo that i basically can't give away; so far, i'm at a 50% loss top to bottom & yet they want to re-do the property taxes to extract more from me . i don't have any more $$$ to hand over to government, unless i don't want to eat. one would almost think that the STATE of MICHIGAN is deliberately being depopulated in an effort to hand over it's natural resources to a centralized government & corporations (that's the way i see it.)
Unemployment and UNDERemployment are actually closer to 40% which is Tunisia, Egypt and Lybia territory w/o the benefits of the US.
"Why lie a little when you can lie alot."
The new business Mantra.
Poof and its gone
If the BLS number was missed by 14% unemployment would be 9.8%. Yeah that's sounds about right.
This "Error" not to be confused with that revealed last week. I'm sure this is all an innocent series of events....and any others that might pop up. Talking about this one:
Realtors: We Overcounted Home Sales for Five Years - US Business ... www.cnbc.com/.../Realtors_We_Overcounted_Home_Sales_for_Five...Dec 13, 2011 – It's no secret that the U.S. housing market has seen better days. .... because of double counting, indicating a much weaker housing market than
Data on sales of previously owned U.S. homes from 2007 through October this year will be revised down next week because of double counting, indicating a much weaker housing market than previously thought.
http://confoundedinterest.wordpress.com/2011/12/21/nar-revised-existing-...
JUST a bit outside.....
LMAO. Great Bob Uecker reference.
Imagine if they reported the REAL numbers for unemployment, food stamps and national debt.
NAR wants people to think they're only retards rather than the lying dirtbags they really are. Good thing most ZH readers already knew the lie.
Hey...less houses sold...that means there must be alot more demand...pent up demand...so i am going to raise the price of my Penthouse in Denver that has been on the market for 3 years....lol
Here's something else that will shock you - televangelists are not trustworthy spiritual advisors.
Of course the "NAR is nothing but an advertising front for the US housing industry."
Why would anyone expect anything else? It's a group of salespeople, ffs.
Would you also take economic advice from the National Association of Car Salesmen?
This makes beating the previous year easier in 2012.. It's all a setup.
So there really was no bubble and therefore no need for a panicked selloff.
"Real estate was a victim" says NAR.
realtorsTM?
how could there be a problem?
In Obama and Bernanke era, lying is a vertue. It helps building confidence and therefore increases the chance of recovery.
Question.... Take each of the 4 years and the total ballpark is 3M fewer homes sold. Looks nice and pretty as small percenatge revisions over 4 years but in total, is 75% of a full year!
So.... Appears part of the plan does it not? Reducing total sales creates a new bogie that allows growth from this new "true" or new "flase" bottom, right?
Either way, numbers forward can only improve do to this washout. And as has been proven, the statistical methods are designed to offer crap, otherwise, the revisions would include new rules to prevent future mistakes.
This is the perfect plan. End 2011 by washing out old numbers when nobody cares than in 2012, you can sell anything and it will equal growth which will look good to the voting masses. Now, although many of us care about wheather it's true or not (and we know it's not), what does matter is it will psychologically imprint on everyone's mind and it doesn't have to be true to move the market.
Preperation Bullish.
(Reuters) - The number of new home foreclosures jumped by more than 21 percent in the third quarter from the previous quarter as banks moved more aggressively after a pause that began late last year, according to a report released by a bank regulator on Wednesday.
Perhaps regulators or banks should consider RE commission clawbacks of any home foreclosed upon within 3 years of closing. This will force the RE agents to properly identify a truly qualified buyer.
How do you get this wrong unless its a lie or just incompetence? I want inflation to be re-assessed next please.
How do you get this wrong unless its a lie or just incompetence? I want inflation to be re-assessed next please.
This was you get when you have a government comprised of Goldman Sacks-of-Shit bean counters. They did wonders for the private sector - now they be doing "wonders" for the republic.
How do you spell "INTENTIONAL MARKET MANIPULATION"?
Deduction requires questions:
Are government stats a game of "horse shoe" where points are given, even in the case of a throw that is so off the mark, the horse shoe breaks a window and lands in a neighbor's bathroom?
Is DC playing "Japanese" style horseshoes - no losers - no winners - just terrible , overly sensitive horse shoe gamers that can't accept they fucked up and missed the "stake" by a country mile"?
How do you miss a number when the information is fully documented? Did the statisticians inadvertently include pictures of model homes in a builder's catalog as part of some fuzzy "started" benchmark-up?
Or, is there something in the DC water supply that causes a 6th finger to grow, and, at the same time, causes blurred vision such that the supernumerary (6th) digit is not in the finger count - or do DC bureaucrats have that sixth digit stuck up their Chihuahua's ass?
A 14% miss is a pretty big miss - even from the low iodines that occupy the political echelons of our agencies - MAYBE THESE WERE THE SAME ASSWADS THAT COUNTED THE WMD's in Iraq?
This is really scary. The thought that we have entrusted these boy lovers with our authorizations for expenditures should alarm everyone to pegging the fact we are in the danger zone.
On the bright side - they've probably [also] overstated the bullets their security details have - very easy to take down.
Let's try something new - let's try a government with "just" individuals from Goyishe Kup employed by us in leadership positions for a while and see how it works out.
Double digit benchmark miss - how is that possible - wow - even the most entrenched cynic is surprised by the dumbed down malfeasance of the ongoing alpha circle jerk boy lover party on the Patomac!
Isn't this just a ploy to enable future anemic sales numbers to look not-so-anemic? That is, comparables in the future just got that much better.
I call bullshit for 2 big reasons:
1. They just released a number yesterday that they're now revising. Wouldn't want the market to react on actual data right? So today the revision hits and no one cares.
2. Did they just magically start fucking up in 2007? Seems to me, you would always want to inflate sales numbers (now is the time to BUY!) so I would assume they would willingly push the high-line all the way through the last 12 years or so... why wouldn't they?
I'm getting really tired of stupidity as an excuse for CEOs, politicians, and bankers. I would be fired in a second if I demonstrated the same vacuous idiocy these cretins claim. It's even more apalling that we accept that as an answer as well.
Keep in mind, these are the same idiots who, in 2005, were screaming at the top of their lungs, "There's no housing bubble!!! Buy real estate, nobody's making more land!!! Your money is secure, it's real estate!!"
Can't imagine how this happened... I mean, they have shitty data analysts:
If you have any critical thinking skill at all and work in this domain, you check for this sort of thing. Classic case of closeted IT-heads being told to write some query, black boxing the business need and context, returning garbage.
And shitty technical/press release writers:
OK, like, I get it.