Hot on the heels of the previously discussed surge in Indirect, aka mostly foreign central bank and other official, demand for 3 and 10 Year Treasurys discussed in the past 2 days, the week's issuance was set to end with today's $13 billion in 30 Years bonds. And, as expected, Indirects could barely contain their excitement, taking down just shy of half, or 49.4%, in line with the recent prints of 48.9% and 49.8% in Janury and December, if a little shy of the record high of 53.2% hit in July, after the auction priced 0.4 bps just wide of the When Issued, at 2.56%, a fraction wider than January's 2.43% even if today's session had seen some aggressive buying into the 1pm hour.
If you want to know where the next bear market is, look around at the people who are enjoying unimaginable wealth. Mr. Market has a habit of correcting things over time. My guess is that you won’t be paid $200K/year to drive trucks in North Dakota for much longer. The best thing about capitalism is that everything is temporary. The last time around, people had the stock, could have sold it, and didn’t. Nothing lasts forever.
Did Did The US just blink? Perhaps under pressure from Merkel having enough of Obama's "costs", Secretary of State John Kerry just released the following statement... " the United States is prepared to consider rolling back sanctions on Russia when the Minsk agreements of September 2014, and now this agreement, are fully implemented."
Despite media claims that the German-Greek relationship did not "look tense" at today's EU leaders' meeting; and in spite of the European market's seeming exuberance at no deal but a possible deal but no deal, ECB's Noyer has come out swinging:
*NOYER SAYS GREECE NEEDS TO NEGOTIATE SERIOUSLY, SAYS GREEK EXIT FROM EURO WOULD BE `VERY PAINFUL'
This is odd in that markets have been managed to prove Grexit is 'contained'.. Noyer added that the Emergency lending agreement (ELA) is adapted to the needs of the economy, and ironically explained Greece needed to focus on growth (ironic because Greece is expected to grow notably faster that eurozone this year) and debt reduction won't help.
US equity markets are quietly doing what they do - go up and stay up. But in the biggest markets in the world - US Treasury, Japanese bonds, and foreign exchange - something turmoily is happening. Yields are cratering today.. The USDollar is getting hammered on the back of JPY gapping dramatically stronger and EUR surging.
The monetary politburo has every reason to fear Rand Paul’s demand for a “policy audit” of the Fed. An honest one would show that its so-called “independence” has been monumentally abused in a manner which is deeply threatening to both political democracy and capitalist prosperity. Needless to say, we can’t have that audit soon enough. In short, what the nation really needs is not an “independent” Fed, but one that is shackled to a narrow and market-driven liquidity function. The rest of its current remit is nothing more than the self-serving aggrandizement of the apparatchiks who run it; and who have now managed to turn the nation’s vital money and capital markets into dangerous, unstable casinos, and the nations savers into indentured servants of a bloated and wasteful banking system.
Confused by the whirlwind of conflicting facts, not to mention outright lies, leaks and rumors, surrounding the negotiations of what will either be the third Greek bailout of its first, and final, Greek exit from the Eurozone? The following summary should answer most questions.
Is it any wonder that The Greeks want to leave The Euro? One glance at the following chart and it is clear who the growth engine is and who the anchor is...
Business inventories grew at a mere 0.1% in December, missing expectations for the 7th of the last 8 months. This is the slowest inventory growth since May 2013. Perhaps most worrisome is the drop in sales (down 1.1%) which slammed the inventory-to-sales ratio to its highest since July 2009.
It would appear the un-sourced rumors of Greek banks having used up their Emergency line of credit with the ECB are true. Following a hastily put together conference calls this morning:
- *ECB RAISES GREECE ELA ALLOWANCE TO EU65BN: FAZ
Up from the previous EUR59.5 Billion. It appears the stealth bank run in Greece is showing no signs of slowing.
When not even Tesla's non-GAAP adjustment magic, shown previously in the following "bridge", can boost sales or earnings any more to beat Wall Street expectations, one things is clear: as SocGen's Albert Edwards puts it "US corporate profits and sales are crumbling."
As the noise of jobless claims data once again ripples through the narrative of unequivocally good low gas prices, initial claims in Shale States continues to trend higher. TX and PA saw the largest rise in claims (from the Shale States) lagged a week. Overall, initial jobless claims jujmped 24k to 304k (above the supposed Maginot Line demarcating the "everything is awesome" from the "we're gonna need a bigger QE") missing expectations by the most in a month. The Initial Claims trend appears to have seen a regime shift from lower to higher...