While mainstream media desperately played up the fact that oil prices were 'off the lows' this morning as some kind of positive news, that narrative is now dashed to winds of under-demand and over-supply. With WTI Crude prices testing the multi-year cycle lows once again, crashing below $54, we wonder how long before the Yellen effect wears off...
China may have mastered the art of fabricating economic data to a level unmatched by anyone except the US Department of Labor, but its derivative countries have much to learn. And none other more so than one of China's favorite sources of commodities over the past decade: Brazil. It is here that things are going from worse to catastrophic, as disclosed in today's update of Brazil's fiscal picture.
"where are the opponents to the ethos that anything goes and nothing matters? Where are the political figures who can sustain a complaint long enough, and loudly enough, to keep it in the public consciousness clearly enough to make a difference? The more conspiracy-minded might say that the security apparatus (the NSA and its servelings) or Wall Street actually run the country and somehow suppress opposition. I don’t believe that. I do believe that cultures go through tragic periods when they lose their bearings and the will to be truthful to themselves."
Who could have possibly anticipated that the one state that contributed the most high-paying jobs during the "recovery" on the back of the shale miracle, is facing recession (as JPM predicted)? Certainly not economists, who have correctly predicted exactly zero of the last 20 economic recessions, and whose lowest estimate for today's Dallas Fed manufacturing outlook survey was 5.0 (with 12.5 on the high side, and a 9.0 consensus mean). Moments ago we got the official number and it was a doozy, plunging from 10.5 to just 4.1, the lowest print since the Polar Vortex swept away economic activity across the US and when the Dallas Fed printed a tiny 0.3.The drop of 6.4 from the November print was also the largest slide in economic activity since October 2013.
"We have heard constantly that oil will slow consumption down as it eats into disposable income. But it remains a conundrum to many that consumption has remained robust, despite oil prices remaining high. What’s going on? We don’t see a conundrum. As we wrote about in September (The Global Investigator, Is Oil Relevant for Equities, September 2 2005), in the plutonomy countries, the rich are such a massive part of the economy, that their relative insensitivity to rising oil prices makes US$60 oil something of an irrelevance. For the poorest in society, high gas and petrol prices are a problem. But while they are many in number, they are few in spending power, and their economic influence is just not important enough to offset the economic confidence, well-being and spending of the rich."
Who could have seen that coming? After showing weakness all night (on still-fading oil prices despite Libyan issues and GREXIT concerns), the moment the US equity cash market opened for business, USDJPY was smacked higher and thus stocks went vertical with the S&P 500 pushing back near record highs. The Russell 2000 was the leader as "most shorted" stocks were monkey-hammered yet again...
And just like that Grexit is back.
It appears that with a few short days left in the year, the Santa rally is finally over, if only in Greece where both bonds and stock are tumbling after the third vote for PM Samaras' appointed presidential appointee Stavros Dimas concluded as many had expected: in failure, with 168 Greek lawmakers voting in favor of Dimas, well short of the 180-vote threshold needed. 132 voted against Mr. Dimas. This means that the "worst case" scenario - at least as described by Goldman - is now on deck: a snap general election that could bring the anti-bailout Syriza party to power. And speaking of Syriza, and its triumphant leader Samaras, moments ago he announced that the now inevitable Greek elections will take place on January 25: pencil that date in for even more turmoil.
As Greek headlines start to sink in, and hot on the heels of Japan recently issuing 2Y bonds at a negative yield for the first time ever, German 2Y yields have crashed to new record lows at -10bps... So what exactly will ECB QE do?
Greek stocks are down over 8% (and were worse) back to more than 2-year lows (as banking stocks are massacred) and 3Y bond yields are back over 12% (post-bailout highs) following Samaras' 3rd failed attempt to avoid a snap-election and all the GREXIT possibilities that brings. So, what happens next?
One would have thought that more than half a year after the mysterious disappearance of Malaysia flight MH-370 airlines would have taken precautions to keep track of airplanes at any given moment. One would be wrong, and as the latest mystery surrounding AirAsia's missing jet deepens, it has become clear that like with its Malaysian predecessor, nobody has any clue where the plane may be, so the speculation begins. Cue Reuters, which reports that the plane "could be at the bottom of the sea after it was presumed to have crashed off the Indonesian coast, an official said on Monday, as countries around Asia sent ships and planes to help in the search effort."
- European Stocks Drop as Greece’s ASE Tumbles After Vote Results (BBG)
- AirAsia Stock Drops Most Since 2011 After Flight Vanishes (BBG)
- Libya's NOC says firefighters had managed to extinguish the blaze at three of 6 burning oil tanks (BBG)
- Bomber kills 11 Shi'ite pilgrims north of Baghdad (Reuters)
- Hillary Clinton Faces Uphill Fight for White, Rural Vote (WSJ)
- Yen’s Slump Seen Longest Since Gold Standard Ended (BBG)
- The 94% Plunge That Shows Abenomics Losing Global Investors (BBG)
- Sony's 'The Interview' makes $18 million in opening weekend (Reuters)
As noted earlier, following the failed vote Greek banks are cratering, with many entering a bear market as of the last price update, such as Eurobank Ergasias -23%, Piraeus Bank -21%, National Bank of Greece down 18%, Alpha Bank 17% lower. While in the past this would have been enough to send European shares limit down and peripheral bonds bidless, algos have forgotten their programmed kneejerk reaction since Greece has been off the front page for so long. As a result, Europe is down but not nearly where it would have been had today's vote taken place a couple of years ago. Then again, with the USDJPY far more important than what Greece may or may not do, all that will take for the Santa rally to resume, if only in the US, is for "someone" to buy a few yards of Dollar-Yen, push the pair to 121, and all shall be well once more.