Worst. "Research Note". Ever

Tyler Durden's picture

The following note from Caris & Co. on HLF (which launched Herbalife in September at a Buy and a $75/share PT) has got to be the worst sell side note in history. The catalyst, according to the firm: what David Einhorn may or may not say. Now that is true value added. Next up: Goldman goes long IBM because it flipped heads.

HLF DOWNGRADE 1/ BUY  to  3/ AVG   the probability is higher than 50% that David Einhorn will present HLF as a short at the Ira Sohn conference on May 16, sending the stock down more.  If HLF is not his topic, the share price will jump sharply but we cannot maintain a 1*/Buy rating when we do not believe investors should buy HLF between now and May 16. Our confidence in our EPS and cash flow estimates and in HLF's management, business model and sustainability of growth remains high, but we are lowering our rating-    Caris

In other words: we like the company but are downgrading it because what someone who does not like it may or may not say. In yet other words, we admit that Wall Street is all about the herding effect (in which lemmings are crowded by prominent hedge funders who have long since established their position and are now merely looking to unload to the stupid and the slow), and lastly admit that we have absolutely no clout, so please ignore us.

And someone pays these people for something?

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rubyruffruff's picture

i'm hiring tht analyst....

GetZeeGold's picture



I don't know if I should call it in the air......or spin the cylinder and stick the gun to my head.


Oh regional Indian's picture

It's not the first shot that counts GetZee. In America, only if you can shoot yourself in the head TWICE does it count.

It's called twocide.

By the way, like GM, Herbalife is big and growing fast here in india. indian's love their MLM schemes. So is that storage container company....tupperware.

India's top sportspeople are it's spokespeople here.

Don't diss them good herbs.;-)

In other words, get a Life.



GetZeeGold's picture



Going long Herbalife .......sounds like a lock.


Oh regional Indian's picture

Add a stock (Hah) and a Barrel and we're back to Guns?

Now that is circular talk right there.


Arthor Bearing's picture

Circular talk: "Finkle is Einhorn..."

nantucket's picture

almost spit out my soda, that's the funniest comment i've read in a long time

disabledvet's picture

maybe we should be like Europe and simply no longer have public markets then...

Mercury's picture

In other words: someone who has actually done their homework may have arrived at a more accurate assessment than we have.

What an enviable position Einhorn is in now....

mess nonster's picture

...Adding to that growing sense of powerlessness...


lizzy36's picture

But they bill themselves as a "New Type of Wall Street Firm'......re-branding is awesome.

GetZeeGold's picture



Well it's not just new....it's vastly improved as well.


HD's picture

Kass was on Fast Money yesterday rambling on incoherently - he's long everything except common sense. Apparently. he has a lot of company on the street.

GetZeeGold's picture



Kass was on Fast Money yesterday rambling on incoherently


That's fairly normal over there.


Barometer's picture

It's pretty bad, but BTFD has to be the worst

gwiss's picture

They are simply acknowledging that true value investing is dead in the water.  The whole thing is completely divorced from reality and has become a "guess who will be popular this time" game.

Hmmm....... now, what is that similar to as we approach another national popularity contest?

The market has been bitten by the vampire of politics and we are just now realizing that it has become part of the undead.

Cochise's picture

text book example of mosiac theory research. right? 

I apologize on behalf of all sell-side research analyst


CryingBear's picture


Oh regional Indian's picture

Are you afraid? or do they have a pox on their horn?


SpeakerFTD's picture

They did hit their price target.  40% ROI in 6 months if you bought on their recommendation and sold at their PT.    

mess nonster's picture

"Bad news, Boss. The latest analysis indicates that we are trapped by a convergance of several downward trends. Maneuvering room had been decreased to near zero. We are out of options. What should we do?"

Timothy to Bernanke

TEPCO engineers to top brass

ECB economists to Mario Draghi

RNC strategists to the Mittster

etc etc




Global Hunter's picture

If Caris & Co gets a small allocation on the next HLF issue, this research note makes a 180 from worst ever to best ever.

SheepDog-One's picture


Cant blame them...all that does matter now is who is shorting what.

Oh regional Indian's picture

That does sem to be the long and short of it SD1. Who is doing what?

I think Long Shorts are in though.


BandGap's picture

I  love targets! Honestly, a few years back I put the names of several small stocks on a dartboard, stood fairly close, closed my eyes and let fly. Invested in 3 I hit. Two of the three made serious $$$, the other stayed about the same. I should have written a book and gone on TV.

Downtoolong's picture

I would  comment, but, I can't stop laughing.


Graabein's picture

Oh, I don't know if it's the worst research note ever.

I still enjoy reading the front page of the Enron research note that our trusted friends and Goldman's published less than a week before its bankruptcy...


Bullet:  "We recently met with management, our confidence level is high"


Appleseed's picture


adr's picture

A few years ago you could drive around Torrance, CA and see some big headquarters, Toyota and Honda. All of a sudden you drive down a street and see this mega complex with what almost looks like a pot leaf that seems to have sprung up overnight. You say Herbalife WTF is that?

Herbalife's buildings dwarf Toyota and Hondas. Then it hits you, ah ha publicly traded "growth" stock scam. Then you see the Ferarri California drive off, hmm insider selling.

What a wonderful country we have :)

Every day becomes harder to resist going into a tower with a high powered rifle.

ffart's picture

I predict the miners will also be sold off pretty hard when this stock tanks... and when it rallies... and when it remains flat.

LongSoupLine's picture

Analysts have become a pure parallel to elementary school playground dynamics.

Nobody For President's picture

Like the genius at WeedBush that bashed The Zuck for wearing a hoodie at an IPO meeting:

InvalidID's picture

Goldman goes long IBM because it flipped heads.


 Ok, that's the best one liner I've seen here yet. I'll be using it, expect a royalty check in the mail.

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