As WTI Passes $105, Guardian Says Iran "Military Action Likely", Would Send Crude Soaring

Tyler Durden's picture

Between the Chinese 'surprise' RRR and the Iran export halt to UK and France (and escalating tensions), Oil prices are off to the races this evening. WTI front-month futures have just broken $105 (now up more than 10% in the last two weeks), the highest levels in over nine months and just 8% shy of the 5/2/11 post-recession peak just under $115. Brent (priced in EUR) remains off last week's intraday highs (as EUR strengthens) but still above the pre-recession peak but in USD it traded just shy of $121 - well above last week's peak. Of course, this will be heralded as a sign of demand pressure from a 'growing' global economy rather than the margin-compressing, implicit-taxation, consumer-spending-crushing supply constraint for Europe and the US that it will become in the not too distant future. As we post, The Guardian is noting that US officials are commenting that "Sanctions are all we've got to throw at the problem. If they fail then it's hard to see how we don't move to the 'in extremis' option." The impact of any escalation from here is gravely concerning with PIMCO's $140 minimum and SocGen's $150-and-beyond Brent prices rapidly coming into focus - and for those pinning their hopes on the Saudis coming to the rescue (and fill the Iranian output gap), perhaps the news that our Middle-East 'allies' cut both production and exports in December will stymie any euphoria.

From The Guardian: US officials believe Iran sanctions will fail, making military action likely

Growing view that strike, by Israel or US, will happen
• 'Sweet spot' for Israeli action identified as September-October
• White House remains determined to give sanctions time

"It's not that the Israelis believe the Iranians are on the brink of a bomb. It's that the Israelis may fear that the Iranian programme is on the brink of becoming out of reach of an Israeli military strike, which means it creates a 'now-or-never' moment," he said.

"That's what's actually driving the timeline by the middle of this year. But there's a countervailing factor that [Ehud] Barak has mentioned – that they're not very close to making a decision and that they're also trying to ramp up concerns of an Israeli strike to drive the international community towards putting more pressure on the Iranians."

Chart: Bloomberg

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ekm's picture

Ok. Ultimately everything is bet.

As far as I remember, car sales in China have plummetted. (I don't intend to search the internet to prove it right now.). However, if 50% of the demand is Hoarding, that's quite a lot of crude for dumping, quite soon in my opinion (or rather in my bets).

battlestargalactica's picture

Preach it... But is beyond short to get things in order. $400 worth landscape timbers, five yards of top soil, five yards of composted humus/manure, and hammer swinging will get you 300+ sq feet of garden in 8x4 ft raised beds. Then invest in canning equipment, dozen boxes of Ball regular mouth quart jars, and a good canning book... And talk to your local home teacher or gardeners club. or for heirloom seeds.

It isn't that hard, and my god- its the way food used to taste. And you have food 'security', perhaps the #1 security issue around, IMHO. Keep stacking PMs, but seriously, grow your own damn vegetables and learn those 'old' practical skills.

tim73's picture

The solidarity with Israelis would drop to zero when ordinary Americans would have to wait for their weekly rations of gasoline in half mile long gas station queues everywhere. Maybe even the 30 first customers would get lucky per line and receive some. When conditions in big cities would resemble post-Katrina NO. When there would be soldiers in almost everywhere, trying desperately to prevent looting.

dwdollar's picture

I doubt Americans will be intelligent enough to make the connection between Israeli actions and high oil costs. The more disparate they become, the more they believe whatever is on TV.

10mm's picture

Preeping is for more than an all out economic/natural disaster.Just fuel prices alone can step it up to a bad level of discontent.

Yen Cross's picture

I think C/E and Chump are "Natural Leaders" > any comments?

Yen Cross's picture

 ARE You back from 22:47 or  22:64 CHUMP? I told ya the truth!

Yen Cross's picture

The SPARK is alive!


Caviar Emptor's picture

In 2008, the year that saw the all-time high price for regular self-service gasoline ($4.11 gal) the $3.50 per gallon mark wasn’t topped until April 21.  Last year, gasoline prices didn’t surpass $3.50 per gallon until March 8. This year, gasoline topped $3.50 per gallon on Saturday, Feb. 11.

resurger's picture

See the DOW today, breaking 13K

The Iranians are helping the US Economy by making the Oil tycoons even richer...

Congrat's Bush Senior and Junior .. Fuck the Average Joe

Money 4 Nothing's picture

Your right, Now who bought our SPR again at $115.00 a barrel?

Ms. Erable's picture

Nyarlathotep don't drive, bitchez!

Huh? Oh. Sorry - wrong Lovecraft.

Colonial Intent's picture

You mean the old ones aren't running the planet already?

Ms. Erable's picture

No, but their minions and cultists are.

Colonial Intent's picture

Völkischer Beobachter/Zero Hedge.

Spot the difference.

Moe Howard's picture / Colonial Intent

Spot the difference.



MobBarley's picture

Anti Defenestration League


Colonial Intent's picture

I would never throw anyone out of a window (unless they gave my wife a foot massage)

Colonial Intent's picture

Iv'e never been called that before, my friends will laugh.


Will i have to return all of finkelsteins books now i'm an israeli shill?

falak pema's picture

I don't see the US trying something with more boots on ground intervention in Middle East; not in election year.

They may give the Israelis the nod for an "Osirak" type strike. But thats about it. Will Israel take on this escalation? I guess they have nothing to lose and the noose around Syria makes a broader front hotten up the RM games.

Oil @ 150-180 hurts the world, but could start a EM economic stampede as they have increased social unrest in third world, which could be a life saver for phony fiat Empire. As they come out of Eurozone financial and social thrilla in Athens later this year, looking focused at Nato type concerted level to zoom in on a global power play. 

In 2013 after re-election things could get serious at global and Regional levels.

Here is what I see; once the Oil pump price starts jerking up and stays up in 2012, to turn the pain and strain in sheeple to "optimal" Armageddon entry level psycho-game:

If first world is pushing monetary print to infinity to ensure banker liquidity, and if the NEW game is go protectionist massively to bring back jobs to Euro-USA in total debt, it makes sense to upset the apple cart in Chindia; now of no use to first world, and letting them rot in RM inflation denominated is phony USD; that stays the saving KEY of first world; thus to make the world eat devalued fiat for hard RM.

As far as debt repayment is concerned the first world's NEW NORM is Greece : we assume a permanent default with creditors.

We'll pay when WE ARE READY, aka NEVER! So you can lump it creditor countries! Our debt just keeps accumulating as nobody can pull the plug on us, like we will on Greece, eventually!

New NEW world order dictat, just off the press, prior to press button on Iran-Hormuz rumble by Israel. The show begins.

We are the Jets and they are those Peurto Rican Sharks. But this STAYS WEST SIDE STORY! MARIA of Ispahan land  can stay in burqa for the time being!

SIng on like the Templars did : Simper Fidelis. They stayed faithful to their role of banksters with licence to kill. It ended badly then.

Will History repeat? Simper fidelis, Wall Street shills! comes Putin's response to the sound of Us/Nato military moves :


Poutine promet un réarmement "sans précédent" de la Russie

Poutine promet un réarmement "sans précédent" de la Russie


rsnoble's picture

Well the previous "sweet spot" was March. Now it's sept-october. The suspense is killing me. Just when I thought my tolerance for alcohol couldn't get any higher.

Regarding this Albert Pike guy ill have to look that up. However I wonder if he thinks there will be a winner in a nuclear war?  The only way that would ever work imo is if Russia and China are already bought off and only a few select nukes will be set off. Kill a few million, leave most of the world intact and have just enough ammo to create the world gov't. Evil, evil bastards.

sodazed's picture

For anyone convincing themselves war isn't inevitable, here's an article that may dampen your optimism a little:

MobBarley's picture

Peace is inevitable as well.

How many wars does it take to get to the center of a tootsie roll pop?




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