Reggie Middleton's picture

Introducing the "Unbreakable Promise" As a Method Increasing Efficiencies and Decreasing Risk

As #MarginCompression creeps into one the fastest growing industries of the millenium...

Tyler Durden's picture

The S&P 500 Nears 1950 - Goldman Sachs' June 2015 Target

As we noted in the pre-open, the "BTFATH mentality" will be alive in well' and sure enough Goldman Sachs' S&P 500 Target for June 2015 was 1950, we just reached it 11 months early (1949.25 highs to be exact). Their corresponding target for 10Y yields at that level of S&P is 3.50% (so we are 90bps lower) and earnings expectations to support that price was $120 per share (dramatically higher than the current level). Goldman's 2014 Target is 3% lower than the current level. Nothing to see here, move along...

williambanzai7's picture

THe LoNGeST DaY...

D-Day 2014

RANSquawk Video's picture

RANsquawk - Weekly Wrap 6th June 2014

Tyler Durden's picture

It Snowed In Mexico? Mexican Central Bank Unexpectedly Cuts Rate Due To "Worse Than Expected Economy"

While we are led to understand that the US economy contracting at a pace not seen in three years was blamed on the snow (which somehow subtracted $100 billion in US economic growth for Q1 from early estimates of over 2.5% Q1 GDP estimates), we are not sure if one can also accuse snow for what the Mexican central bank just announced, when in a seemingly shocking announcement, it reported that it cut rates from 3.50% to 3.00%, a move expected by precisely zero economists out of the 20 polled by Bloomberg.


Yup, sure sounds like a whole lot of snow.

Tyler Durden's picture

The Good And The Not- So-Good News About US Jobs In One Chart

Is the US worker's cup half full, or half empty?

Tyler Durden's picture

No, The Economy Wasn't Built On Consumer Debt

Steve Liesman unleashed a torrent of abuse when he claimed recently that "This Country Was Built On Consumer Debt" Of course, Steve's comments really are of little surprise. With the average American still living well beyond their means, the reality is that economic growth will remain mired at lower levels as savings continue to diverted from productive investment into debt service. Furthermore, with the Federal Reserve and the Administration actively engaged in creating an artificial housing recovery, and wealth effect from increasing asset prices, it is likely that another bubble is being created. This has never ended well. The concern is that without a reversion of debt to more sustainable levels the attainment of stronger, and more importantly, self-sustaining economic growth could be far more elusive than currently imagined.

Tyler Durden's picture

What Quality Jobs? Over Half Of May Payroll Growth Is In Education, Leisure And Temp Help Jobs

If there was some hope that in April the trend of the US adding low-quality (as in low-paying) jobs may finally be coming to an end, this came to a quick end in May, when more than half of the 217K jobs added were in the lowest paying sectors. Specifically: Education and health: +63K; Leisure and Hospitality: +39K; Temp Help Services: +14K. These three lowest paying categories amount to 116K, or well over half of the total jobs gains.

Tyler Durden's picture

US Finally Recovers All Jobs Lost Since 2007 While People Not In Labor Force Increase By 12.8 Million

There was good news in today's NFP report: at 138,463K jobs reported by the establishment survey, the US economy has finally not only recovered the prior cyclical high of 138,365K, but surpassed it by 98K. Congratulations. And now the bad news. As the next chart shows, that virtually every job gaines since the trough of the depression has been matched by at least one person dropping out of the labor force. In fact, since December 2007, the total number of jobs is virtually unchanged, while the number of people not in the labor force has increased by an unprecedented 12.8 million from 79.2 million to a record 92 million. Recovery?

Tyler Durden's picture

Stocks Pop But Bond Yields Drop On Jobs Data

With today being a non-POMO day (more a YOYO - you're on your own), we suspect the spike in stocks following what was by all counts a mediocre jobs print will not last (until that is it has banged 1950 in cash and taken Goldman's targets out). Bond yields spiked and are now 2bps lower... bad news is good news, good news is good news, and mediocre news is good news... welcome to the new normal...

Tyler Durden's picture

217K Jobs Added In May, In Line With 215K Expected; Unemployment Rate 6.3%

In a report that was a complete snoozer, largely as many had expected, in May the US Economy is said to have added 217K seasonally adjusted jobs, virtually in line with the 215K expected, while the unemployment rate remained at 6.3%. According to the household survey the number of jobs added was 145K, not a huge deviation from the Establishment survey.

The number of people not in the labor force declined by a tiny 9K to 92.009 million, also virtually unchanged.

Perhaps the "best" news is that at 138,463 people employed, we have now surpassed the January 2008 prior cycle highs. It only took 6 years.

Tyler Durden's picture

Copper Plunges Most In 3 Months As "Rehypothecation Evaporation" Concerns Grow

Copper prices accelerated lower overnight and are sitting at 5 week lows following rapidly growing fears that the commodity warehousing probe will uncover exactly what we have been warning about for months - there is no 'there', there. As we explained in great detail here and here, the discrepancy of reportedly 80,000 tonns of aluminum and 20,000 tonnes of copper is sparking wholesale liquidations as carry traders, lenders, and borrowers all scramble to find out if their promised commodity is there. Iron ore, which has seen its price tumble dramatically, is also on the watch list as the port had said it was investigating whether iron ore warehouse receipts were fraudulently used multiple times to raise finance by different banks.


Tyler Durden's picture

What Wall Street Expects Of Today's Jobs Number

  • HSBC 175K
  • Goldman Sachs 175K
  • Citigroup 185K
  • JP Morgan 200K
  • Deutsche Bank 200K
  • Bank of America 225K
  • Barclays 225K
  • UBS 230K
Tyler Durden's picture

Frontrunning: June 6

  • Canada Aims to Sell Its Oil Beyond U.S (WSJ)
  • ECB Unanimity May Prove Fleeting (WSJ)
  • Chinese military spending exceeds $145 billion, drones advanced: U.S. (Reuters)
  • France to sell 10 warships to Russia next? BNP Executive Firings Sought by Top New York Bank Regulator Amid Probe (BBG)
  • Vodafone says governments have direct access to eavesdrop in some countries (Reuters)
  • Home Price Gains of 20% Vanish as Hottest Markets Cool (BBG)
  • G-7 Heads Warn Moscow Before Facing Putin (WSJ)
  • Barclays Fine Spurs U.K. Scrutiny of Derivatives Conflict (BBG)
  • "Or Costs" - Obama Says Putin Running Out of Time Over Ukraine (BBG)
  • Banca Monte Paschi Falls After Offering New Stock at 35.5% Discount (BBG)
Tyler Durden's picture

Algos Waiting For Today's Flashing Red NFP Headline To Launch The BTFATH Programs

If predicting yesterday's EURUSD (and market) reaction to the ECB announcement was easy enough, today's reaction to the latest "most important ever" nonfarm payrolls number (because remember: with the Fed getting out of market manipulation, if only for now, it is imperative that the economy show it can self-sustain growth on its own even without $85 billion in flow per month, which is why just like the ISM data earlier this week, the degree of "seasonal adjustments" are about to blow everyone away) should be just as obvious: since both bad news and good news remain "risk-on catalysts", and since courtesy of Draghi's latest green light to abuse any and every carry trade all risk assets will the bought the second there is a dip, the "BTFATH mentality" will be alive in well. It certainly was overnight, when the S&P500 rose to new all time highs despite another 0.5% drop in the Shcomp (now barely holding on above 2000), and a slight decline in the Nikkei (holding on just over 15,000).

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