What happened in October is that an unadjusted response which indicated the weakest labor market in half a year, was magically transformed into almost the best print in the history of the Employment series.
Oil prices are spiking (WTI crude is up $3 off this morning's lows) following the pipeline explosion in Saudi Arabia. Of course, energy stocks are surging on the news too and we are just waiting for some clever talking head to proclaim this surge as demand-driven showing how strong the economy is...
The US Dollar is moving up RAPIDLY. Will this blow up the financial system as it did in 2008? We’ll soon find out.
The Ruble collapsed another 2% today breaking above 45 for the first time ever as Bank of Russia's Deputy Governor Ksenia Yudaeva suggested their policy was "quite close" to free floating the currency and desperately tried to jawbone the currency. She suggested that further rate increases were possible, that interventions were part of the "policy package" when repo tool ramps up and, most notably, Moscow could use some of its national foreign currency or even gold bullion reserves – now the world's fifth largest hoard – to pay for buying imports if Western sanctions over Ukraine continue.
Based on the ridiculous, seasonally-adjusted data released day after day by the various US "Departments of Truth", also known as the BLS, the Census, the Dept of Commerce, UMichigan, ADP, the Conference Board and so on, the US economy is so strong and consumer confidence is so resurgent, America is on the verge of a second golden age. Sadly, for Obama, and last night's epic rout for Democrats, it was all a lie - a lie perpetuated by a manipulated S&P500 which hit daily record highs on unprecedented central bank liquidity injections which have now terminally disconnected the "markets" from the economy, and the welfare of the vast majority of the common "folk" - and said "folk" saw right through it.
US Services dropped modestly from the 58.9 in September to a final print at 57.1 in October - the lowest since April. This should be no surprise as for the last 5 years, H2 has seen a notable decline in the soft-survey-based data. Despite the plunge, employment remained solid even as the business outlook neared 2-year lows. As Markit notes, the survey "warns of a slowdown as move towards the end of the year," which is odd because the world and his pet rabbit said US was decoupling. For a change ISM Services actually agreed with Markit and printed 57.1, missing by the most since Feb 2014 with New Orders and Prices Paid down.
The "ECB Matrix": Here Are The Best "Disappointment " And "Delivery" Trades Ahead Of Tomorrow's ECB MeetingSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 11/05/2014 09:55 -0500
Here is the full matrix of possible actions that the ECB can undertake, from adjusting the TLTRO, to shifting the deflation inflation message, to revising its balance sheet target, and finally, to launching a broader QE, and how these could impact the EURUSD based on how Draghi frames them.
Because nothing says 'dissatisfaction' with the widening inequality in America like buying stocks at record highs...
The trouble with mass delusions is that they are recognized as such only when they are over – when the dazzling absurdity of certain widely held beliefs is unmasked by subsequent events.
Isn't it ironic that the demographic in America that has seen the largest job growth during the 'recovery' turned out in droves to vote (against the incumbents) while the generation that remain mired in student debt, living at home with their mom-and-dad in record amounts, and having lost hope of the American Dream were apparently uninterested in 'change'. Perhaps, just perhaps, the elder generation still believes there is a difference between the two parties... or perhaps they are the ones who are most pissed as the promises of sipping margaritas on a golden beach in retirement is crushed into the reality of working to your grave at Home Depot...
Nothing to see here, move along...
Isn't it odd that 'they threw the bums out' last night and yet, economic confidence is high, stocks are high, and now, according to ADP, private payrolls are great too? Something doesn't add up. ADP printed 230k against expectations of 220k, modestly up from a revised 225k in September. Small and Medium-sized businesses added jobs while the largest firms (over 1000 people) slashed jobs (which is great for the stock, right?).
What if we were as skeptical of the reports on the ECB as we are of the Fed ?
- From Yes We Can to Probably Not (BBG)
- How Mitch McConnell did it (Politico)
- Tough road ahead for Obama after Republicans seize Senate (Reuters)
- Election 2014: Who were the big winners and losers? (USA Today)
- GOP Senate Takeover Puts Fed on Hot Seat (WSJ), and other fables
- GOP Won by Recruiting the Right Candidates (WSJ)
- McCain could shake up U.S. defense in powerful new Senate role (Reuters)
- Investors Pulled Record Amount From Pimco’s Flagship Fund in October (WSJ)
- Taliban group threatens to attack India following border blast (Reuters)
- Oil Import Decline to U.S. Revealed by Louisiana as Truth (BBG)
There is a very strong correlation between the GDP and the demand for gold, even in mature markets!