Key Events In The Coming "Most Impotant Jobs Report Ever" Week

June is off with a bang, and a very busy week in the macro economic calendar, both globally and in the US, which culminates with the latest "most important ever" payrolls report, one which will surely be closely watched by a Fed which may hike as soon as a few weeks from now (but probably won't).

Is Our Economy's Cinderella Carriage About To Turn Into A Pumpkin?

The Fed insists that Cinderella's carriage is forever golden, ignoring the increasingly obvious reality that the carriage is turning back into a pumpkin before our eyes. The Fed's magic was always a short-term fix, akin to over-fertilizing and over-poisoning our economy to create the illusion of massive growth in profits and stock, bond and home valuations. Now that the magic is wearing off, the reality is going to hit everyone who believed the fantasy of permanent asset bubbles especially hard.

US Savings Rate Jumps As Americans Again Spend Less, PCE Tumbles

This is not what the American Dream is made of... US consumers got a generous 0.4% rise in incomes in April - better than the 0.3% expectation - but none of it was spent! Personal Spending was unchanged - missing expectations for the 5th month of last 6. What this means is obvious, Americans are saving more (savings rate surged from 5.2% to 5.6%) and spending less... this is not the wealth effect creating 70%-of-GDP-consuming world that The Fed's textbooks say it should be...

Futures Soar On Latest "Greece Fixed" Rumor; Forget To Drop On Rumor Denial

It wouldn't be the new normal without a "Greek deal imminent" rumor/headline and so after overnight China-based strength gave way to selling pressure, another twitter-based rumor of "chatter" of a Greek accord (which given yesterday's comments seems extremely unlikely anyway) sparked a malt-up in EURUSD and US Equity futures. However, as is always the case, Virtu's algos as usual forgot to sell when the official denial occurred just a few minutes later.

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Welcome to SmartKnowledgeU Podcast #10, Free Your Mind. For many of us, almost every single belief we hold about religion, politics, financial markets, war, law, morality was fed to us by another human being, and not something that we arrived upon from our own path of critical thought.

Frontrunning: June 1

  • Senate lets NSA spy program lapse, at least for now (Reuters)
  • Draghi Deflation Relief Means Little With Greek Threat Unsolved (BBG)
  • Tepid factory data add to Asian gloom (FT)
  • Citigroup Likely to Close Banamex USA (WSJ)
  • Frugality of High Earners in U.S. Shows Long Shadow of Recession (BBG)
  • Greece’s Tsipras Warns Bell May Toll for Europe (BBG)
  • Carnegie Mellon Reels After Uber Lures Away Researchers (WSJ)
  • Romário leads drive for Brazilian probe into Fifa (FT)
  • Faster than China? India's road, rail drive could lay doubts to rest (Reuters)

Futures Flat With Greece In The Spotlight; China Boomerangs Higher

Remember China's 6% crash last week? It is now a distant memory made even more remote thanks to the latest batch of ugly data out of China, coupled with hints of even more liquidity injections, which led to the latest surge in the Shcomp, an index that has put most pennystocks to shame. In Europe, the big story remains Greece, and as everyone expected, the doomed country and its creditors failed to make a deal on Sunday. This is after Greek Officials were said to have prepared a draft agreement, which was expected to be announced on Sunday. Not helping things, Greek PM Tsipras came out in fully defiant mode and accused bailout monitors of making “absurd” demands and seeking to impose “harsh punishment” on Athens. A bunch of final PMI number showed a modest improvement in the periphery at the expense of Germany whose deterioration is starting to be a concern.

Chinese Stocks Are Surging On Weak Macro Data BTFD-iness

Having dropped over 10% in the previous 2 days, what better way to get the speculative frenzy of Chinese housewives levered up and buying stocks again than terrible macro data. With China HSBC Manufacturing PMI printing 49.2 (the 3rd monthly contraction in a row) and China's official Services PMI tumbling to its lowest since Dec 2008, the 'bad' news seems to have been greeted wondrously as Chinese stocks are up 2-4% on the news. CHINEXT back to fresh highs, Shenzhen is outperforming, and Shanghai and CSI-300 are all pushing higher. Add to this the news that the CSI-300 its rebalancing some positions and the 'correction' in China is now old news...

A First-Hand Account Of The Greek Bank Run

"On the Wednesday and Thursday it was reported that Greeks withdrew 800 million Euro from checking accounts. Friday's number will dwarf that. Whe you go to a Greek bank you pull off a ticket and wait for your number to be called. The hall in my bank contains about 60 seats all of which were filled. There were folks standing behind the seats and in fact throughout the hall, all wanting to get their cash out before the bank closed at 2 PM."

Abenomics Fail: Japanese Slack-Jawed At Oral Sex Price Deflation

Despite proclamations by Kuroda, Abe, and various other elected (and unelected) officials that the 'deflation mindset' is gone from Japan, it appears one segment of the population is keenly aware of the ongoing deflationary market for one staple item. Just as we warned was occurring in America, it appears the cost of blow-jobs has gone from just-plain-cheap to "well, why not?" As one intrepid reporter ventured into the Otsuka red-light district of Toshima Ward discovered, the fee for an oral session at a “pink salon” starts as low as 2,000 yen ($16!).

American Police Are Shooting And Killing More Than 2 People Per Day In 2015

On Saturday we introduced readers to the “Ferguson Effect”. The idea is that the recent spate of prosecutions and instances of social unrest that followed a series of events involving perceived police misconduct directed at African Americans have made police officers gun shy — literally. A new study by The Washington Post suggests otherwise...

Five Reasons Why America Is Done

"Until and unless we at least resolve all five of the following, and everyone involved wears an orange jumpsuit and has their corporate and institutional edifices closed down with the ill-gotten gains disbursed back to their victims we are, as a nation, DONE."