Pending Home Sales Tumble For 2nd Month In A Row

Thanks to a series of negative revisions, pending home sales have now tumbled YoY for two consecutive months (dropping 2.2% in July versus an expectation of a 2.2% rise). The revisions enabled the MoM print of +1.3% to beat expectations optically (thanks to a surge in The West sales +7.3%). The good news for affordability is that NAR's Larry Yun notes homebuilders focusing down-market; the bad news, obviously, is that more supply will disable the low-inventory bid holding prices up at record highs. Probably time to hike rates...

Chicago PMI Slumps Suggesting "June's Momentum Was Only A Temporary Revival"

After bouncing miraculously in June (to 18mo highs), slipped lower in July and has now tumbled in August to 51.5 (missing expectations of 54.09 markedly).With weakness across the board - new orders, inventories, and production all slumping - MNI warns, "Economic activity slowed down into the summer, suggesting June's  momentum was only a temporary revival in activity. Overall, it wasn't a rosy month."

Russia, US Clash Over Who Killed Islamic State's Second In Command

On Tuesday, the Islamic State announced that Mohammad al-Adnani, the man who some have dubbed the terrorist organization's "second in command", was killed depriving the militant group of the man in charge of directing attacks overseas. His death marks the highest-profile killing yet of an ISIS member.

South Africa's Largest Debt Manager Halts Loans To State Firms, Rand Tumbles

"We’ve observed recent reports that strongly hint of conflict between branches of South Africa’s government, the possible machinations of patronage networks and a seeming challenge to the National Treasury’s independence... It is difficult to make reasoned and defensible decisions to continue providing state-owned companies with additional funding using clients’ money."

Canadian Economy 'Double-Dip' Crashes In Q2 - Worst GDP Growth In 7 Years

The first half of 2015 saw Canada informally enter 'recession' with two quarters of negative GDP but then, everything bounced back and policy shifts were 'proven' effective. However, that dead-canadian-cat-bounce is over as Q2 2016 GDP growth just slumped 1.6% - double-dipping to the worst since Q2 2009. The problem with this plunge is that oil prices actually had their best quarter in 7 years as the economy tanked.

ADP Continues Weakening Trend As Goods-Producing Jobs Shrank... Again

The general trend of weakenig ADP job growth continues in August with a 177k print (in line with expectations). Goods-related jobs dropped 6k but Service-related roles rose 183k, but notably construction jobs fell 2k while zero new manufacturing jobs were created, even though some 19,200 "franchise workers" were added. It is also worth pointing out that over the past five months the average ADP employment gain is 175K, which is the lowest since July 2013.

Frontrunning: August 31

  • Treasuries Extend Drop in August on Fed Outlook as Dollar Gains (BBG)
  • Oil slips on dollar strength, still set for monthly gain (Reuters)
  • Trump to make dramatic trip to Mexico before immigration speech (Reuters)
  • Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz Beats Back Florida Primary Challenge (WSJ)
  • Ban cash because... SWIFT discloses more cyber thefts, pressures banks on security (Reuters)

In Historic Event, China Sells First World Bank SDR-Denominated Bonds In Decades

In one of the most closely followed bond issues in recent history, overnight the IBRD, one of the five member-institutions of the World Bank Group, sold 500 million SDR-denominated three-year bonds carrying a coupon of 0.49% at an auction in China's interbank market on Wednesday. This was the first SDR denominated offering in three decades, with the issuance symbolically taking place in Shanghai one month before the official inclusion of China's currency in the SDR basket. 

Futures Flat, Global Stocks Rise As Treasury Yields See Biggest Monthly Jump In Over A Year

The August market doldrums were on display on the last day of the month as S&P futures were fractionally lower on non-existent volume, while both Europe and Asia were modestly in the green; ten-year Treasury yields headed for the biggest monthly jump in more than a year while the dhe dollar gained for a sixth day against the yen in the longest winning streak since March. European stocks advanced for a second day, adding to a monthly gain as oil trimmed its advance in the best month since April.