Brexit: Here Are The Latest Known Unknowns

When will Article 50 be triggered? Will it ever be triggered? Will there ever actually be a Brexit? Who is the next Conservative leader? Will there be a snap general election? On any negotiations will Europe play hard ball or compromise? Elsewhere will Italy lose the senate reform referendum in October and could Italy have an EU referendum after a fresh election? And will the French elections next year be another spoke in the wheel for Europe?

"Panic May Have Passed... But This Is Far From Over"

Don’t read too much into the relief rally of the past 24 hours, warns Bloomberg's Mark Cudmore. While the initial panic may have passed, markets are very far away from having fully priced the impact of the referendum. For a start, there’s still little firm grasp of exactly what the impact will be...

Scandal Erupts At Euro Summit Over Scotland, While Draghi Says In "No Rush" To Ease Policy

Moments ago, a mini scandal erupted at the Euro summit, when in an attempt to infuriate the UK some even more, Juncker said that “Scotland won the right to be heard in Brussels." What he did instead is open a new Pandora's box, one which invites all secessionist movements in Europe to demand a comparable treatment. And, sure enough, just moments later, Spain's PM Rajoy immediately said that he opposes any negotiation by Scotland with the EU adding that "If the UK leaves, Scotland leaves."

Silver Surges To Post-Brexit Highs

Despite the dead cat bounce in 'some' risk assets, bonds and bullion remain bid as Silver just broke back above the post-Brexit spike highs...

April Spending Exuberance Plunges Back To Earth In May As Income Growth Slows

After an exuberant April, spiking hope that everything was awesome with a surge in spending, May has dragged US consumers back down to earth. The 1.1% (revised) jump in spending in April (highest since Aug 09) is over as May's 0.4% gain is back in the land of 'normal' once again. Income rose just 0.2% MoM (less than expected) slowing dramatically from last month to near the weakest YoY growth since March 2014. The savings rate fell once again on the back of this (down 0.1%) to 5.3%.

Islamic State Blamed For Istanbul Terror Attack That Killed 41

With the Ataturk airport damage now largely accounted for, it's time to cast blame which Turkey was eager to do when Prime Minister Binali Yildirim said in televised remarks that the Islamic State is likely responsible for the killings. “Once again, it has been understood that terrorism is a global threat to all countries and nations and must be fought through mutual cooperation,” Yildirim said. “Our country has the necessary power and determination to overcome over these heinous attacks.”

Frontrunning: June 29

  • Global stocks gain as Brexit nerves settle (Reuters)
  • Draghi Wishes for a World Order Populists Will Love to Hate (BBG)
  • Merkel Says No Way Back From Brexit as Cameron Regrets Loss (BBG)
  • EU leaders meet without UK to plot Brexit response (FT)
  • Division, confusion as EU rethinks future without Britain (AP)

Don't Worry, You Are Not Alone: "No One Knows How To Price Brexit" Citi Admits

Whereas spot prices have stabilized, there appears to be little conviction among traders and other financial market participants about the course of exchange rates and asset prices going forward. Market sentiment remains tentative; small catalysts can be very disruptive. A common trading floor comment is: "No one knows how to price the Brexit scenario going forward."

Global Stock Surge Continues As "Investors Look To Central Banks For Support"

Why the ongoing rally? A squeeze, sure, and also month-end fund flows. But the fundamental driver remains one and the same, and we quote Bloomberg: "the relief rally endures as Asian and European stocks rally with crude oil amid speculation policy makers will use stimulus to blunt the impact of the U.K.’s decision to leave the European Union, including a pause in the Federal Reserve’s tightening cycle. Investors are looking to policy makers for support."

Nigel Farage Batters Obama: "He Came To Britain And Behaved Disgracefully"

"Well ultimately let me say this, Vladimir Putin behaved in a more statesmanlike manner than President Obama did in this referendum campaign. Obama came to Britain and I think behaved disgracefully, telling us we'd be at the back of the queue. Treating us, America's strongest, oldest ally, in this extraordinary way. Vladimir Putin maintained his silence throughout the whole campaign."

Is A New Banking Crisis Imminent? Recent Rise In Delinquency Rates Is Shocking

In 2006 it was exactly twelve months after delinquency rates bottomed that the recession began. If the same period applies, we are due for a recession. In the first quarter of the Great Recession in 2008, delinquency rates were only 1.45%. We are already above that level. The fact that increasing loan delinquency coincides with mountains of debt maturing in 2016 and 2017 is a topic for next time.

The Accusations Begin: David Cameron Blames Brexit On Merkel And EU "Immigration Failure"

David Cameron told European leaders he lost the EU referendum because they failed to address public concerns over immigration, as tensions rose ahead of looming Brexit negotiations. The British PM said that fears of mass immigration were "a driving factor" behind the vote and free movement would have to be addressed in Brexit talks. He was mostly referring to Angela Merkel who blocked British demands before the referendum for an "emergency brake" on migrant numbers.

16 Reasons To Celebrate Brexit's Win

Could Brexit turn out to be a mistake? Yes. Unfortunately, we live in an uncertain world with imperfect knowledge. We can only guess at the future. However, Britain has been capably governing itself for hundreds if not thousands of years. In that light, Brexit appears likely promote the right people and ends.