With virtually all polling completed, the final result is 61.3% No, 38.7% Yes - a whopping rejection of Troika hegemony which may also be the final nail in any negotiations between Greece and the Eurogroup.
The number everyone's been waiting for all afternoon is finally here: moments ago ES opened for trading after the holiday weekend and it's not pretty, down 1.5% to 2035 in early illiquid trading.
Just out from Reuters:
FINANCE MINISTERS "WOULD NOT KNOW WHAT TO DISCUSS" AFTER EMERGING GREEK 'NO' VOTE-EURO ZONE OFFICIAL
May we suggest containing the fallout, whether in capital markets or in the resurgent mood in the other PIIGS, as a primary topic?
The "Nightmare Of The Euro-Architects" Is Coming True: JPM Now Sees Grexit, Eurogroup "Split In Coming Days"Submitted by Tyler Durden on 07/05/2015 16:46 -0400
Perhaps the best summary - or epitaph, some would say - of the shocking events that took place in Greece this afternoon, and the resultant falling dominoes that are about to be unleashed, was given by Slovakia's finance minister Peter Kazimir, who summarized events as follows: "The nightmare of the 'euro-architects' that a country could leave the club seems like a realistic scenario after Greece voted No today." So here is JPM's Malcom Barr with the bank's latest take on Greece which is that at this point, a Grexit is JPM's "base case"... and it only goes downhill from there.
If marriage insurance sales take off, it's only a matter of time before Wall Street repackages it and sells it to investors via subprime marriage-backed securities. A boom in marriage speculation would ensue. Did you see your neighbor with his mistress last night? Buy some MBS credit default swaps on him and tell his wife what you saw.
Marine Le Pen, Anti Euro French Presidential Frontrunner, Applauds Greek Victory Over "EU Oligarchy"Submitted by Tyler Durden on 07/05/2015 15:55 -0400
"This 'No' from the Greek people must pave the way for a healthy new approach," said Marine Le Pen. "European countries should take advantage of this event to gather around the negotiating table, take stock of the failure of the euro and austerity, and organize the dissolution of the single currency system, which is needed to get back to real growth, employment and debt reduction."
With nearly 60% of the Greek refrendum vote counted, and the No's leading by a landslide 61%, it is clear that the Troika's gambit failed, unless as Goldman wrote and we first noted, it was the ECB's intention to force a Grexit all along, thus permitting the ECB to engage in more QE: QE which would in Goldman's estimation, push the EURUSD down 7 big figures and further toward parity, sending global stocks soaring in one last central bank-inspired hurrah.
Congratulations Greece: for the first time you had the chance to tell the Troika, the unelected eurocrats, and the entire status quo establishment, not to mention all the banks, how you really felt and based on the most recent results, some 61% of you told it to go fuck itself. Now comes the hard part.
With the Federal Reserve’s unwillingness to allow the markets to stand on their own feet, and not be so dependent on their interventionism with QE for years, and Zero interest rates for the same – the tool box may in fact be empty – at the most inopportune time. So here we are, once again, waiting or watching for what could possibly be the start of another contagion effect to ripple through the markets that has the potential of resembling 2008, or worse. And the only thing to stand in its way will be the faith and/or belief in their omnipotence. For it seems – that’s all they have left. All while we watch the same crumble in the eyes of others across the waters as their Central Banks are being perceived daily more as villains or worse – inept
- N1 – Soft deal: The most unlikely scenario is that the euro-area partners offer a much softer programme to Greece.
- N2 – Default-and-stay: Moderately less unlikely is a scenario where Greece defaults but stays in the euro thanks to a direct recapitalisation of Greek banks by the euro-area partners, with the Greek government using only domestic resources for the country’s fiscal needs.
- N3 – New deal: The third scenario is one in which the rising economic and political cost of a closed banking system results in the Syriza government being replaced by a new government of national unity and a new deal with creditors being reached.
- N4 – Grexit: In our view, Grexit and Scenario N3 are the most likely – with about equal probabilities.
Most leading indicators are warning; more trouble could be ahead...
If the early bitcoin markets are an indication of what will happen once New Zealand opens for illiquid FX trade, it will be a risk off kinda day...
A poll by GPO on Mega TV gave 51.5% in favor of “no” and 48.5% in for “yes”
Metron Analysis on Antenna TV showed “no” leading with 49% vs 46% for “yes”
MRB on Star TV showed “no” leading with 49%-54% vs 46%-51% for “yes”
Marc opinion poll for Alpha TV shows “no” ahead with 49.5%-54.5% vs 45.5%-50.5%
Trillion-Dollar Asset Managers Warn On Greece Fallout: "No Blueprint" Means "All Kinds Of Uncertainty"Submitted by Tyler Durden on 07/05/2015 12:00 -0400
“If all of a sudden one member leaves, it creates a precedent, and maybe suddenly casts some doubt on the long-term future of the monetary union.”
“There is no blueprint for how a country exits the euro and redenominates [and] that’s going to create all kinds of uncertainty in Europe.”