As usual benchmark revisions have saved the day for the headlines on the Philly Fed print. Expectations for the data was a 10.3 and it came at 7.3, a definitive miss to expectations, but of course thanks to revisions this rise to 7.3 (from 6.8 revised) is heralded (in a short-lived manner) as evidence of improvement. Under the covers though, things aren't so rosy. New Orders and Shipments dropped notably, number of employees was merely flat and while restocking seems to be occurring modestly (inventories improved) they still printed negative. On the six-months ahead outlook, expectations are for lower prices received but everything else reflects the hope-infused perception of steady growth - especially the notable rise in capex (as the diffusion index nears its cyclical peaks). Initial market reaction is negative to the miss.
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The six-month ahead outlook for Philly Fed is at very high 'hope' levels.
Chart: Bloomberg