The highly irrelevant economic noise that is the ADP private payrolls indicator [8]has come in form the month of January, and printed at nearly half of the December number of 325K, which was revised lower to 292K, at 170K, on expectations of 182K. We should be the last to tell readers that anything this unbearably noisy series says is beyond meaningless, but since someone follows it, it bears noting that this was the weakest number since October 2011. Furthermore, with the NFP virtually guaranteed to be a miss for a variety of reasons, this is merely the latest confirmation that economist expectations of the economic recovery ramping up, were short sighted - after all the Chairman has an agenda. Yet what makes this report a total mockery is that in the month in which banks, and the FIRE industry in general, was firing left and right, ADP saw 9K people in financial services added to private payrolls. Ironically the financial jobs "added" were almost as many as the manufacturing jobs, at +10K in January. Who says America is not a manufacturing juggernaut and only exports weapons of financial mass destruction?
Breakdown:
[9]
[10]
From the report:
Employment in the private, service-providing sector rose 152,000 in January, and employment in the private, goods-producing sector increased 18,000 in January, while manufacturing employment increased 10,000.
Employment on large payrolls—those with 500 or more workers—increased 3,000, and employment on medium payrolls—those with 50 to 499 workers—rose 72,000 in January.
Employment on small payrolls—those with up to 49 workers—rose 95,000 that same period. Of the 95,000 jobs created by small businesses, 11,000 jobs were created by the goods-producing sector and 84,000 jobs were created by the service-producing sector.
Employment in the construction industry increased 2,000 this month, which is down from an increase of 27,000 in December. Employment in the financial services sector increased 9,000 in January, which is up from an increase of 1,000 in December, and represents the largest gain in two years.
According to Joel Prakken, Chairman of Macroeconomic Advisers, LLC, “Labor market conditions continue to improve at a moderate pace. Today’s report marks the twenty-fourth consecutive monthly gain in private employment as measured in the ADP National Employment Report. This pick-up is consistent with the recent acceleration of the nation’s Gross Domestic Product which, in the fourth quarter, grew at 2.8 percent—the fastest pace since second quarter of 2010,” Prakken said.
Prakken continued: “Other indicators suggest some firming of labor market conditions as well, including the downward trend in unemployment claims, upturns in the components of consumer sentiment and confidence influenced by perceptions about the availability of jobs, and a rising trend in workers voluntary quitting their jobs.
“Employment grew in all the major sectors of the economy tracked in The Report, and across payrolls of almost all sizes. Employment on medium payrolls—those with 50 to 499 workers—rose 72,000 in January. Employment on large payrolls—those with 500 or more workers—increased 3,000 during that same period, but did decline slightly in the manufacturing sector,” Prakken noted.