When we announced the news of Jamie Dimon's surprising announcement, we said that "Since we are now obviously replaying the entire credit crisis, from beginning to end, must as well go all in. Now - who's next? And perhaps just as importantly, who isn't." Who isn't it turns out are 4 banks that did not pass the Fed's stress test results [9]. These are SunTrust, naturally Ally, MetLife and... Citi. Way to earn that 2011 $15 million comp Vic [10]! To summarize: across the 19 banks taking the test, the maximum losses are projected to hit a total of $534 billion. But at least Jamie Dimon gets to pay his dividend. Also, the European LTRO stigma comes to the US in the form of banks who do dividend hike/buyback, vs those that do not.. and of course the 4 unlucky ones that fail the stress test entirely.
Banks at or below 5% are ooopsie.
[11]
From the Fed:
The results of the stress scenario projections suggest that the 19 BHCs as a group would experience significant losses under the assumptions of the Supervisory Stress Scenario. Losses at the 19 BHCs are projected to total $534 billion over the nine quarters of the scenario, including losses across the loan portfolios, trading and counterparty credit losses from the global financial market shock, and losses on securities held in the BHCs’ investment portfolios. Losses related to operational risk events such as fraud, computer systems failure, and employee lawsuits, and losses related to mortgage repurchases, which are included in pre-provision net revenue (PPNR), add another $115 billion to this total. Projected PPNR at the 19 BHCs is $294 billion over the nine quarters of the scenario. Together, the high projected losses and low projected PPNR result in projected net income before taxes of $222 billion for the 19 BHCs. This is an extremely low level of net income relative to historical experience in the U.S. banking industry, even in periods of considerable economic and financial market stress.
Despite sometimes significant projected decreases, most of the BHCs maintain stressed regulatory capital ratios including all planned capital distributions above regulatory minimum levels over the course of the stress scenario horizon.24 Overall, 4 of the 19 BHCs have one or more projected regulatory capital ratios (including capital distributions) that fall below regulatory minimum levels at some point over the stress scenario horizon, including 3 BHCs with a stressed ratio of tier 1 common ratio below the 5 percent benchmark established in the capital plans rule. In interpreting these results, it is important to recall that the Federal Reserve’s stress scenario projections are deliberately stringent and conservative assessments under hypothetical, adverse economic conditions and the results are not forecasts or the most likely outcomes for these BHCs.
The minimum levels for BHCs to be considered adequately capitalized are 4 percent for the tier 1 ratio, 8 percent for the total capital ratio, and 3 or 4 percent for the tier 1 leverage ratio. Based on the U.S. capital adequacy guidelines, the tier 1 leverage minimum is 3 percent for BHCs with a composite BOPEC rating of "1" and for BHCs that have implemented the Board’s risk-based capital measure for market risk. The tier 1 leverage minimum is 4 percent for all other BHCs. The tier 1 leverage ratio minimum is 4 percent for Ally Financial Inc., American Express Company, Capital One Financial Corporation, and MetLife, Inc., and 3 percent for the rest of the 19 BHCs participating in CCAR 2012. The capital plans rule further stipulates that the BHCs must demonstrate their ability to maintain tier 1 common ratios above 5 percent.
This is what the economic conditions were in the worst case:
[12]
[13]
So... Buy the dip?
Full report (pdf [14]):