Remember when the Chinese PMI posted both a contraction an expansion for the month of March, with Markit showing a sub-50 contractionary print [6], while the Chinese version showed 51, or expansion, in other words China was both stagnating and growing at the same time, merely the latest indication of our modern day Schrodinger-ness macro insanity? Well, we just got the US version of this Heisenberg Economic Uncertainty principle, when as part of the just released Philly Fed index [7](which also printed better than expected despite a drop in New Orders and Shipments), we saw Priced Paid.... tumble from 38.7 to 18.7!!?? Why the surprise? Because 90 minutes prior to this, we just got The New York Fed telling the world that prices paid in fact soared by virtually the highest [8] amount in real terms on record! In other words, in New York survey respondents are experiencing soaring inflation, while 90 miles Southwest, manufacturing firms were awash in deflation. Do they even try to manipulate the data anymore?
That said, while this is a carbon copy of what happened in early 2011, the final outcome was both series eventually succumbing and plunging far lower as the "economy" rolled over following the expiration of QE2 benefits. Sad to say, this merely confirms once again that 2012 will be nothing short of a 2011 carbon copy in virtually every regard.
[9]
And other charts from this latest contradictory indicator:
[10]