If Goldman's recent predictive track record is any indication, tomorrow's NFP will be a disaster.
Just out from the firm:
BOTTOM LINE: Jobless claims last week at 357,000, in line with consensus. In view of better employment-related indicators this week, we are raising our forecast for the March gain in nonfarm payrolls to +200,000 from +175,000 before.
KEY NUMBERS:
Initial jobless claims 357k for week of March 31 vs median forecast 355k.
Continuing jobless claims 3,338 for week of March 24 vs median forecast 3,350k.
MAIN POINTS:
1. Initial jobless claims eased to 357,000 the week ending March 31, from a revised 363,000 the prior week, a touch worse than consensus expectations. Continuing claims fell to 3,338,000 the week ending March 24, from a revised 3,354,000, a bit better than consensus expectations.
2. Given somewhat better-than-expected news from the employment-related indicators this week--including gains in both of the ISM employment indexes and a sizable increase in online help-wanted job advertising according to the Conference Board--we are raising our forecast for the increase in nonfarm payrolls in March to 200,000 from 175,000 (data released on Friday at 8.30). We continue to expect a slight drop in the unemployment rate to 8.2% from 8.3% and a 0.1% gain in average hourly earnings.