There was a little for everyone in the latest "baffle them with bullshit" economic data report: while the Services ISM popped modestly from the prior 53.5 to 53.7, on expectations of a slight decline to 53.4, something which in itself is bad because it is good, and makes prospects of more outright QE less of a slamdunk, the all important employment index tumbled from 54.2 to 50.8, the lowest print of the Year, and the largest two month slide in the Employment index since March of 2009. Finaly, with half of the Manufacturing ISM indices in contraction territory already, we finally got the first sub-50 print in the Services ISM as well, with the Prices component declining from 53.6 to 49.8: a/k/a contraction, and the biggest 3 month drop in prices paid since December 2008, and the lowest since July 2009.
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ISM Jobs component: oops:
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The respondents, ebulient for the most part, are in for a very rude awakening shortly:
- "Q2 will be a strong quarter for us; the building market is starting to wake up." (Construction)
- "Increased activity and resources related to projects." (Finance & Insurance)
- "The upswing in consumer confidence has led to increased business." (Arts, Entertainment & Recreation)
- "While we tend to remain optimistic about the economy, our numbers
do not show a surge in activity. It appears consumers are maintaining
their 'let's wait and see' attitude." (Accommodation & Food
Services) - "Business outlook is flat for the remainder of 2012 with emphasis on
cost containment, restructuring and cost-savings projects."
(Professional, Scientific & Technical Services) - "Business is still strong, but we have seen some softening in growth since mid-March." (Wholesale Trade)
Deflation? What deflation:
COMMODITIES REPORTED UP / DOWN IN PRICE, and IN SHORT SUPPLY
Commodities Up in Price
Airfares (5); Beef* (2); Copper Products; Corrugated; Diesel Fuel (4); #1 Diesel Fuel* (6); Fuel (5); Gasoline* (5); Lumber; Office and Computer Supplies (2); and Paper Products (2).
and ISM Prices Paid (biggest 3 Month drop since Decmeber 2008 and lowest print since July 2009)...
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