"Shocking." Just "Shocking."
Stopped out of our short S&P 500 recommendation
We have been stopped out of our short S&P 500 recommendation on today’s close of 1365.5, just above our 1365 stop, for a potential loss of 1.05%. After an initial sharp move lower, we tightened the stop, and today’s rally pushed the index just above it.
This trade recommendation, opened on June 21st following a weak Philly Fed survey print, was predicated on ongoing weakness in the June data set with the recognition that policy developments in Europe were a risk. Indeed, policy initiatives flowing from last week’s European summit exceeded expectations, sparking a sharp rally that began late last Thursday and extended into last Friday.
Yet, the data continue to surprise to the downside: weekly claims are trending higher, today’s ISM was down sequentially and well below expectations, and GLI growth and acceleration remain solidly negative. Looking ahead, our US economics team expects to see a 75K print for June payrolls on Friday, which is below consensus expectations of a 90K number. And so apart from a re-rating higher of European prospects, the market continues to look vulnerable to ongoing cyclical weakness and our bias remains to the downside.
Our question after the initial recommendation hit: [4]
S&P 1500 imminent?
Or maybe Goldman finally gets what we (and Citi [5]... and Deutsche [6]... and SocGen [7]) have been saying for months: there will be a massive policy response, both monetary and fiscal, but first a major crash is needed to jar everyone out of the hypnosis that just because the S&P is over 1350 all is well...
We now know the answer. And this happens just 10 days after this [8]...
At least this means it is safe to short again.