Odds Of Avoiding Recession: One In Thirty

We have seen a number of leading indicators recently (for example, we were first to note the FedEx implications for GDP [4]) that point to a rapidly rising probability of recession. Today, via Bloomberg Brief [5], is a look inside the Philly Fed state economic indexes. To be specific, we look at the six-month ahead outlook for each state. Only once in the last 30 years did 20 states possess a negative outlook and the overall economy avoid recession.

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Chart: Bloomberg