The always prescient NAHB index reached levels not seen since May 2006 this morning completing its sixth beat out of the last seven with its biggest jump since July (a five-sigma beat of expectation no less!). Driven by a huge 8 point jump in 'present' sales (an all-time record 13-month rise?) and a rise in the outlook driven by a huge jump in Midwest expectations. We can only look on with incredulity that this index is given any credibility at all. Perhaps a longer-term look at the index is useful to realize that while we have risen, we are merely at the 9/11/01 trough levels - as always context is king.
NAHB Index rises to May 06 levels...
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The Present Sales index has risen its most ever in the last 13-months - historically this kind of epic rise in the index has capped further gains for 3-6 months...
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led by Midwest Present Sales... which are back near the highs of 2005!!!
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Charts: Bloomberg