S&P 500 futures saw the lowest non-holiday trading day volume of the year and the lowest average trade size of the year also but capped a four-day win streak (biggest in four months) with small gain. The overnight plunge in futures (on EUR weakness following the Greek #Fail) was entirely retraced - slowly but surely but once Europe closed, the US was dead. Treasury weakness and EUR strength (JPY weakness) were the correlated drivers of equity exuberance today, oil flip-flopped in its non-believing 'cease-fire' way (recoupling with gold on the week); Silver surged; and credit tended to track stocks but HY modestly outperformed (though HYG closed red). VIX traded with a 14 handle briefly but ended +0.3 vols at 15.4%. Stocks (especially the big bellwethers) tracked VWAP all afternoon as all but Johnny-5 had left the building. HP Bonds cracked, AAPL green, SPY green, HYG red, VXX green, volume negligible - that is all.
S&P 500 had its biggest four-day gain in four months
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ETFs across the macro capital structure weren't beating to the same drum as stocks today...
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And across asset-classes - lots of decoupling and recoupling this week, which makes sense given the lack of human involvement... Bonds and stocks exchanging swings and USD and Gold recoupling by the close...
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High-yield credit spreads squeezed higher today, outperforming but HYG (the high-yield bond ETF) tended to underperform...
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Commodities were mixed but Silver surged and interestingly Gold and Oil recoupled post cease-fire chatter just as they did yesterday...
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It seemed oil prices rejected the hope that a cease-fire is really upon us...
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Charts: Bloomberg and Capital Context
Bonus Chart: Food for HP Thought as you gobble gobble tomorrow...HP's CDS points to considerably lower stock price...
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HP Bonds started to crack today and yesterday falling towards CDS' view...
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but bonds have a long way to go to really catch up...
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