Today, we got more great news on the housing front as housing starts rose from an upward revised 910K (was 890K) to 917K, modestly beating expectations of a 915K print. This was a blistering number, and as the mainstream media will have you know, was the second highest since early 2008, lower only compared to the very amusing 982K starts recorded in the dead of winter in December of 2012. All of this would be great if it didn't have one rather profound two-word caveat: "seasonally-adjusted." What happens when one strips away the Arima-X-12 seasonal adjustments [3]? We have the answer! As the chart below shows, when one maps the seasonal pattern in the winter, the November-February three month period, one gets the following chart....
[4]
... What one doesn't get, is how a 0.2K increase in not-seasonally adjusted housing starts (from 62.2K to 62.4) manifests itself in a 76K surge in seasonally adjusted house starts.
We are confident the government's assorted propaganda outlets will promptly explain...
Don't believe us: check for yourselves [5].