For the fourth month in a row, NAHB's sentiment index missed expectations. With 'real' data on the housing recovery beginning to fade [5], we now see confidence in the sustainability of the 'recovery' starting to fade. Today's NAHB print is the lowest in six months and is the fastest 3-month drop since June 2011.
[6]
[7]
Which raises the question - was it all anothe headfake?
[8]
Goldman:
The NAHB housing market index unexpectedly declined to 42 in April (vs consensus 45), from 44 in March. By component, homebuilders' assessment of current sales fell 2pt to 45, and traffic of prospective buyers declined 4pt to 30. However, expectations about future sales improved by 3pt to 53. The housing market index declined across all four regions of the United States, but fell most in the Midwest. Although up a solid 18pt over the past year, the index has weakened by 5pt since January, a potential source of concern for the near-term starts outlook.
Charts: Bloomberg