Originally posted at Monty Pelerin's World blog,
A couple of points are important:
- The current level of the stock market is a function of quantitative easing. Neither fundamentals nor conditions in the economy justify financial asset prices where they currently are. Suggestions that QE is about to lessen or stop will produce sell-offs in markets.
- If the Federal Reserve cuts QE, it will not be based on economic considerations. The government is illiquid without the Fed buying/underwriting their bond sales. QE, if it is to drop at all, will drop in line with shrinking federal deficits.
No market can remain overvalued forever. However, a market can remain overvalued longer than rationality suggests and even go higher from these levels.
The government is in a box. They cannot sustain the level of spending they are currently at with tax revenues or conventional borrowing. Government is dependent on the Fed to fund its deficits via the QE scheme of money creation. Politicians in Washington will not willingly cut spending. So long as the Fed continues to be The Great Enabler, the uncontrolled spending will continue.
The Fed knows its QE has no effect on the economy. All it is doing is providing the fuel for political excesses. Stopping QE causes government checks to bounce. The Fed is not an independent agency and will not cross its master by doing what should have been done a long time ago.
[7]
The economy is not recovering and cannot recover. Government is planning to increase spending even more. Incentives encourage more people to enter the welfare state. ObamaCare will overrun spending estimates. The passage of the immigration bill, so lusted for by the political class, has been estimated to cost an additional $6 Trillion in spending. Playing in Syria is not free. No future natural or terrorist events are budgeted for. So long as the Fed makes spending painless, no cuts in government are coming.
The Fed knows its actions are not helping the economy recover. They have five years of data that supports my contention. If they were ever an independent agency, they are no longer. They have become entirely politicized and owned by the political class. They will continue to carry the water for their political masters.
Continuation and expansion of Fed liquidity may hold markets up or even drive them much higher. At some point the entire scheme crashes, probably when enough people recognize that the greater fool theory is in danger of exhausting the quantity of fools. The drop in markets is likely to come about as a result of one of the following factors:
- High inflation breaks out which causes the economy to further decline and shifts the perceptions of market participants in a way that causes them to recognize the Fed fraud.
- The Fed stops enabling the wastrels in Washington and government is unable to meet obligations or forced to dramatically cut its spending.
Neither the ending nor its timing can be forecast with any accuracy. Markets may continue higher as this drama plays out with future Fed announcements and deceptions. Markets, however, cannot levitate forever. Eventually they coincide with reality, which in this case probably means another major market correction.
All Ponzi schemes have limits. Participating in these markets is akin to playing a version of Russian roulette. If the chamber is empty, you make money. If not, you financially die.