It is oddly appropriate for the BS New Normal, in which as the DOL showed earlier virtually every data point is made up, that moments after the Bloomberg Consumer Confidence Index showed a plunge in consumer expectations to the lowest leve in two years, that the October Philly Fed [6]would come out with a six-month general activity outlook indicator of 60.8 (up from 58.2) and the second highest ever in the history of the series! One really can't make up the farce that biased, propaganda data "reporting" has become.
In terms of current conditions, the broad diffusion index, declined just modestly from 22.3 to 19.8, but beat expectations of a 15.0 print, which in itself was apparently enough to send the EURJPY soaring, and pushing futures into green territory for the day. Apparently today good news is good news not to be confused with every other day when bad news is better news and confirmation QE will continue until the bitter end.
[7]
Some other report highlights:
The survey’s broadest measure of manufacturing conditions, the diffusion index of current activity, edged down from 22.3 in September to 19.8 this month (see Chart). The index has now been positive for five consecutive months. The percentage of firms reporting increased activity this month (36 percent) was greater than the percentage reporting decreased activity (16 percent). The demand for manufactured goods, as measured by the current new orders index, increased 6 points, to 27.5, its highest reading since March 2011. Shipments continued to expand: The index fell 1 point to 20.4, following a 22 point increase last month. The diffusion indexes for inventories, delivery times, and unfilled orders were all positive and higher than last month. Labor market indicators showed improvement this month. The current employment index increased 5 points, to 15.4, its highest reading since May 2011. The percentage of firms reporting increases in employment (23 percent) exceeded the percentage reporting decreases (8 percent).
Broken down visually:
[8]
But as noted earlier, it was the 6-month forward looking indicators that were the punchline:
The survey’s future indicators have suggested markedly improved optimism among the reporting manufacturers in recent months. The future general activity index increased 3 points, from 58.2 to 60.8, exceeding its previous highs since the end of the recession in 2009. Slightly over 63 percent of firms expect increases in activity over the next six months; only 2 percent of firms indicated that they expect decreases over the next six months. The indexes for future new orders and shipments also remained at relatively high levels. Over 67 percent of firms expect increases in new orders and 57 percent of firms expect increases in shipments over the next six months. The future employment index fell 4 points; however, nearly 37 percent of the firms expect to increase employment over the next six months
The chart below clearly shows the second highest print in the history of the series.... just as consumer confidence is cratering. Sure why not.
[9]
Good, so... no need to extend the Taper then right? Lol.