Having beaten consensus earnings and revenues, it seems that the momentum stock of the year is finally getting its come-uppance as it missed whisper numbers on earnings and deliveries:
- *TESLA 3Q ADJ. EPS 12C, EST. 10C (whipser ~17c)
- *TESLA FINISHED 3Q WITH SLIGHTLY MORE THAN 5,500 DELIVERIES (whisper ~6,000)
- *TESLA SEES 4Q NON-GAAP PROFITABILITY `CONSISTENT' WITH 3Q
This has sent the stocks down over 9% after-hours near 10 week lows... perhaps Musk was right after all.
[3]
Q4 outlook: We are continuing to expand production and plan to deliver slightly under 6,000 Model S vehicles in Q4, which increases our total expected deliveries to 21,500 vehicles worldwide for 2013. ASPs are expected to be relatively flat sequentially as we continue to see a rich mix of options on incoming orders.
Model S gross margin may continue to make slight improvements over the next several quarters as we continue to drive down manufacturing costs. While we expect to achieve our target of 25% non-GAAP automotive gross margin in Q4 (assuming no contribution from ZEV credits), further progress is likely if customers continue to purchase our vehicles with a high option take rate.
R&D expenses are expected to increase sequentially by about 25% in Q4 as we accelerate product development efforts on Model X and Model S enhancements. SG&A expenses are expected to rise sequentially by about 20%, driven by the growth in our retail locations, service centers and Supercharger facilities.
We expect our non-GAAP profitability to be about consistent with Q3, with approximately 139 million fully diluted shares outstanding based on the current level of our stock price. Free cash flow is expected to be close to breakeven.
We expect to spend about $75 to $85 million on capital expenditures for a total of approximately $250 million in 2013, as we expand our factory production capability and customer support infrastructure. All these investments, funded in part by our profitable operations, position us for further expansion of our product portfolio and global growth.
We are now producing 550 cars per week with improved process controls which consistently result in high quality cars. Consequently, we finished the quarter with a record of slightly over 5,500 deliveries, including over 1,000 deliveries to European customers.
Full TSLA earnings here (PDF) [4].