While Bernanke may be about to leave; none other than his mentor and thesis adviser - former Bank of Israel chief Stanley Fischer is rumored to be in line for a new role:
- FISCHER STEPPED DOWN AS BANK OF ISRAEL GOVERNOR IN JUNE
- FISCHER LEADING CANDIDATE TO BE DEPUTY FED CHIEF: ISRAEL CH. 2
- DJ WHITE HOUSE NEAR NOMINATING STANLEY FISCHER TO FED VICE CHAIR
And so the circle of life is complete. So far, the White House has declined to comment, but we note Fischer has a reputation for beng more hawkish than most - evidenced by his refusal to engage in the kind of dovish activity the rest of the world did while in charge in Israel and is especially downbeat on forward guidance.
Via WSJ blog, [6]
Mr. Fischer said making such statements – known as forward guidance – can cause market confusion. “You can’t expect the Fed to spell out what it’s going to do,” Mr. Fischer said. “Why? Because it doesn’t know.”He added: “We don’t know what we’ll be doing a year from now. It’s a mistake to try and get too precise.” Mr. Fischer said he tried, on becoming governor of the Bank of Israel in 2005, to give signals to the market – but quickly gave up as he realized it restricted the bank’s future actions when circumstances changed.“If you give too much forward guidance you do take away flexibility,” said Mr. Fischer. Part of the problem around giving indications of future actions is they are conditional and nuanced.
Also of note: Fischer was once upon a time considered the "dark horse [7]" candidate to replace Bernanke:
Dark-horse candidates include Stanley Fischer, an American citizen who recently stepped down as governor of the Bank of Israel, and Roger Ferguson, another former Fed vice chairman and now chief executive of TIAA-CREF, a not-for-profit financial-services company.
For now the market seems oblivious that the #2 person at the Fed may be far more hawkish than Larry Summers ever would be.