Consensus that the Fed would extend its $10bn taper from December with a further $10 bn taper today (reducing the monthly flow to a 'mere' $65 billion per month - $30bn MBS, $35bn TSY) was spot on. We suspect the view, despite the clear interconnectedness of markets (and flows), of the FOMC is that "it's not our problem, mate" when it comes to EM turmoil.
- *FED TAPERS BOND BUYING TO $65 BLN MONTHLY PACE FROM $75 BLN
- *FED SAYS LABOR MARKET `MIXED,' `SHOWED FURTHER IMPROVEMENT'
- *FED REITERATES LOW RATES UNTIL JOBLESS RATE `WELL PAST' 6.5%
- *FED REPEATS RISKS TO OUTLOOK HAVE BECOME `MORE NEARLY BALANCED'
- *FED SAYS UNEMPLOYMENT HAS DECLINED `BUT REMAINS ELEVATED'
Of course, "communication" was heavy with forward guidance on lower for longer stressed. We'll see if the market buys the dichotomy of hawkish real tapering and dovish promises...remember "tapering is not tightening." [5]
Pre-FOMC: S&P Futs 1775, Gold $1267, 10Y 2.71%, 2Y 35.5bps, USDJPY 102, EM FX 85.67, WTI $97.35, IG 72bps, HY $106.35
Perhaps this chart from Saxo Capital Markets ( @saxomarkets ) sums up the world best for now...
[6]
Full redline below...