"Where's the bounce," asks (rhetorically) Bank of America's Macneil Curry, warning that despite the repeated signals that investor anxiety is at unsustainable levels and that this is a late stage "risk off" environment, given the blow off top conditions in several EM currencies, particularly $/TRY, and extreme readings in SPX volatility, with the VXV/VIX ratio recently breaking below 1, the S&P500 can't maintain a bid. "Risk assets are vulnerable," he concludes...
Via BofAML's Macneil Curry,
S&P500 key support at risk.
Despite the repeated signals that investor anxiety is at unsustainable levels and that this is a late stage "risk off" environment, given the blow off top conditions in several EM currencies, particularly $/TRY, and extreme readings in SPX volatility, with the VXV/VIX ratio recently breaking below 1, the S&P500 can't maintain a bid. Key support is vulnerable.
[6]
A break of 14m trendline support, now 1750/52 and risk markets are in big(ger) trouble.
Stay bullish US Treasuries
As such, we stay bullish Treasuries. US10yr yields target 2.544%/2.459%, potentially below. Meanwhile, 5s continue to stair step lower to 1.473%. This should be strong resistance, but a break below opens 1.245%/1.2245 (see charts for key support in 10s and 5s).
[7]
For risk assets to regain a more stable footing, ESH4 needs to regain 1790.75, with a move above 1801.25/1805.75 to confirm a base and turn higher.
Bullish the US $, but the Japanese ¥ is the fairest of all
With the risk off environment continuing the US $ and Japanese ¥ remain on strong footing. The €/$ setup remains bearish. Declines are impulsive and gains are corrective. We target the 200d (now 1.3377) ahead of 18m channel support at 1.3177. Watch the US $ Index. 7wk trendline resistance at 81.37 is fast approaching. Above here should provide further bullish momentum for the Greenback.
[8]
As much as we like the US $, we like the Japanese ¥ even more.
[9]
Indeed, $/¥ continues to roll over. Watch 14m trendline support at 102.00. Below here clears the way for the 200d (now 100.05) and eventually the summer/spring 2013 lows at 93.79/92.57.