While the stock of Caterpillar may be discounting some improvement in global industrial demand, the current situation as reflected by the company's latest monthly retail sales update is hardly as optimistic: as was just reported by the company [5](in a revised retail sales format), global three month rolling retail sales declined by 8% in the month of January, which was the 14th consecutive drop, and the longest string of contracting sales since the Lehman crisis and the "last" recession. What's worse, Asia/Pacific, read China, retail sales have tumbled by double digits, -17% in January, every month since January 2013.
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If there was any good news in the report it is that North American retail sales broke the trend of three consecutive drops and posted a tiny 1% Y/Y increase. This, however, was offset by a 11% decline in Latin American retail sales, the biggest drop since April of 2012 and confirmation that the EM troubles are starting to affect corporate top lines.