Sometimes you just have to sit back, look at some charts, and say WTF...
Carry Trade
1. SPX vs USDJPY
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2. SPX vs US Treasuries
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3. SPX vs US Term Structure
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Fun-durr-mentals
4. SPX vs Fwd EBITDA Expectations (bottom-up)
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5. SPX vs US Macro (top-down)
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6. SPX vs Jobless Claims (so long held as supportive of the recovery)
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7. SPX vs Lumber (the housing pillar is cracking)
Risk Assets
8. SPX vs High Yield Credit
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9. SPX vs China's Shanghai Composite Equity Index
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10. SPX vs Japan's Nikkei 225 Equity Index
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11. SPX vs Emerging Market Bonds
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12. SPX vs Emerging Market FX
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Of course, there are those who see these charts and through no self-referential cognitive-dissonance of their own (well in fact entirely for that status quo engendering reason) will proclaim... that proves it - US is cleanest dirty shirt and money is flooding back to 'safety' - however - that is entirely disingenuous...
The ironists among market punters will even attempt to construe all this as a reason to buy more developed world stocks on the premise that the money flooding out of such places as Thailand, the Ukraine, Turkey, and Argentina will be parked in the S&P and the DAX (perhaps overlooking the fact that the purchase price of these now-unwanted positions was most likely borrowed, meaning that their liquidation will also extinguish the associated credit, not re-allocate it).
The Goldilocks lovers will also tend to assume that any such disruption will serve to delay the onset of genuine tightening and may even induce further ill-advised stimulus measures on the part of the major central banks. Certainly Madame Christine Defarge – that tax-sheltered tricoteuse who knits beside the guillotine set up for the hated bourgeoisie – has already begun to militate for such a response.
For their part, the biddable are already trying to drown out the noise of the Cacerolazo by making the fatuous argument that the EMs account for such a piffling portion of world GDP that their fate should be a matter of complete indifference to the rest of us. Needless to say this is a touch disingenuous at best. Their share of end consumption-biased GDP may be lower, but they account for an equivalent fraction, if not a small majority, of global industrial production – and they have been responsible for an even bigger proportion of its growth this past decade. Ditto for trade and ditto for resource use.
Bonus
13. SPX vs The Federal Reserve Balance Sheet - The Truth
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